iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

Unsung Heroes of Fatherhood www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/uns... Hard to pick a favorite, but maybe one of these two:

https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/unsung-heroes-of-fatherhood

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Patrick Siegman @siegman.biz · 21/02/2026

We’re back, baby!

A chart showing traffic tickets issued in San Francisco, with a sharp drop that began in 2014, hit bottom in 2022 when just a few tickets were issued, and has now rebounded almost to 2014 levels.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

I think I’ll be using more Claude Sonnet 4.6 until Anthropic works out the kinks with Opus 4.7

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

It's extremely disappointing to see this from someone capable of much better thinking.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

If we support a standard or vague agenda to slow or shape automation then most people will end up worse off than if we did nothing. At least half the Acemoglu ideas seem bad to me. However, it will become politically untenable to “do nothing” and we need a positive agenda.

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

Very cool competition that the Financial Times held in 1914 to forecast the border changes in WWI. ‘Precisely seven years after the competition closed to entries, the FT announced: “No map sent in is even approximately accurate as compared with the final lines.”’ www.update.news/p/ai-just-is...

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Tim Duffy @timfduffy.com · 13/02/2026

There's a periodic poll of academic economists run by UChicago, and it recently asked them about AI and economic growth. Lots of uncertainty, but this result is slightly more bullish than I would have expected. kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/ai-a...

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 02/01/2026

Much respect to those who make predictions and publicly score them. 🫡

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Epoch AI @epochai.bsky.social · 10/12/2025

Individual AI benchmarks saturate too quickly to give us a long-run trend of AI progress. We can solve this by "stitching" them together. This lets us forecast AI capabilities, quantify algorithmic improvements, and detect accelerations in AI progress. www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwiD...

youtube.com

A Rosetta Stone for AI Benchmarks

YouTube video by Epoch AI

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

Ending the kidney shortage is a no-brainer. I just contacted my elected officials, Click here to take @action and do the same. actionbutton.nationbuilder.com/share/SPK-QE...

actionbutton.nationbuilder.com

#TakeAction with ActionButton

ActionButton helps people take quick action to create powerful change.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

The ideal that all parents, but especially mothers, spend max time with their kids leads to a stigma against au pairs. More people should consider it. www.alexnowrasteh.com/p/we-let-an-...

alexnowrasteh.com

We Let an Immigrant Live in Our Home

You should too, especially if you have young children

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Antoine Vernet @antoinevernet.com · 11/11/2025

I watched @kjhealy.co's keynote yesterday. It is well worth your time if you often wonder about what a good visualisation should do, and if you are curious about how they fit or don't in a truth-challenged environment. It is funny too. I also like the 3 words slides! #rstats youtu.be/ZamPCbvBAgE?...

youtu.be

Trustworthy Data Visualization (Kieran Healy, Duke University) | posit::conf(2025)

YouTube video by Posit PBC

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

People often say that being good at poker requires reading tells and psychological insight, but this is mostly false. Poker AIs destroy humans despite not seeing physical tells, and with a very limited model of individual players. @clearerthinking.bsky.social @spencrgreenberg.bsky.social

podcast.clearerthinking.org - transcript

BARRY: And where the features that are relevant are easily quantified. It's easy to decide what bets to make at a casino. It is and should be formulaic. It's not so easy to decide how to play poker, because it isn't just about probabilities. You have to understand the people you're playing against and try to, in effect, see through the backs of their cards. So that adds some complexity, but you can still calculate expected values. You know that staying in on some hands is bad, chasing the odds are so far against you, and on other hands, you almost certainly have the best hand at the table. You can calculate that just by knowing the odds of various cards in a deck. But that doesn't make you a winner at poker. That's a precondition. If you can't do that, you'll never be a winner at poker. If you can do that, you at least have a chance to be a winner at poker.
Because especially as that kind of calculation gets more and more automatic, you can devote yourself to trying to read the other people at the table. And my

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Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 24/10/2025

I think this is kind of neat and I don't think anyone else has noticed it (I've looked and I can't find anyone who has) osf.io/preprints/so... Maybe I should back off "justification" language, but it's at least a remarkable coincidence. I still think someone else *must* have noticed it...

Title: A Justification for 80% Power
Abstract:
Cohen’s heuristic reason for choosing 80% power (balancing Type I and TypeII errors) conveniently arrives at approximately the same number as an approachwhere one maximizes the marginal gain in power per standard error reduction. Ihave yet to see someone point this out, and this is interesting because it providesa non-arbitrary justification for 80% power.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 24/10/2025

Making normies care about something is a great skill/vocation. Sadly this isn’t the skill/vocation that gets politicians elected, nor does it lead to writing popular op-eds.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 27/09/2025

Wondering if anyone on this site wants to comment on this from @ctulocal1.bsky.social

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Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 10/09/2025

The pretty draft is now online. Link to paper (free): www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10.... Our replication package starts from the raw data and we put real work into making it readable & setting it up so people could poke at it, so please do explore it: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

The social sciences face a replicability crisis. A key determinant of replication success is statistical power. We assess the
power of political science research by collating over 16,000 hypothesis tests from about 2,000 articles in 46 areas of the
discipline. Under generous assumptions, we show that quantitative research in political science is greatly underpow-
ered: the median analysis has about 10% power, and only about 1 in 10 tests have at least 80% power to detect the
consensus effects reported in the literature. We also find substantial heterogeneity in tests across research areas, with
some being characterized by high power but most having very low power. To contextualize our findings, we survey
political methodologists to assess their expectations about power levels. Most methodologists greatly overestimate the
statistical power of political science research.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

Suggestion for authors: go back to forecasters now and ask them if they’d like to update their 2030 forecasts.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Charts comparing BlueSky to X would be appreciated. Almost all comparisons are of interest to me including the obvious big two categories: - user demographics - post topics

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Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · 02/08/2025

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements This is a big deal

August 1, 2025
AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations

Statement from the American Economic Association on the
Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner

Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today.
The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day.
Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias.
The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity.
Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions.
We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure.

Lawrence Katz
President, American Economic Association
Katharine Abraham
President-Elect, American Economic Association
Karen Dynan
Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics
Kenneth Troske
Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations

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Ludger Woessmann @woessmann.bsky.social · 07/07/2025

❓Why do the Nordics & Dutch speak English so much better than the Germans, Italians & French? ➡️ New Working Paper: Out-of-School Learning: Subtitling vs. Dubbing and the Acquisition of Foreign-Language Skills w/ F. Baumeister & E. Hanushek www.nber.org/papers/w33984 A 🧵 1/12

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ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 14/07/2025

NYC experimented with new window heat pump models in some public housing units. in winter, "The window unit-heated apartments used a whopping 87% less energy than the rest of the building’s steam-heated apartments did, cutting energy costs per household in half." heatmap.news/sustainabili...

heatmap.news

Window Heat Pumps Could Change the Game

A new report from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy has some exciting data for anyone attempting to retrofit a multifamily building.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 14/07/2025

Happy Fête de la Fédération to those who celebrate! @franceculture.fr

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 07/07/2025

Most social scientists have never reflected on the epistemic virtues of forecasting.

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Max Roser @maxroser.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

My chart on the history of three infectious diseases — smallpox, polio, and measles — before and after a vaccine was available.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 20/06/2025

NYC mayor race needs conditional prediction markets: If [Mamdani / Cuomo] wins, what results in 2026-2027? - new housing starts - population growth - high net worth population change - rent change - student test scores - crime - police budget @manifoldmarkets.bsky.social @metaculus.bsky.social

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Adam Bonin @adambonin.bsky.social · 15/06/2025

Should we deport people who have lived here for many years without committing any crimes? 61% no, 24% yes. Should we should deport people as quickly as possible even if it means more mistakes, or do our best to make no mistakes even if it takes longer? Quickly: 19% Minimize mistakes: 74%

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Alex Munter @alexmunter.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

BREAKING: Overwhelming support for letting doctors and nurses move freely around the country to care for Canadians: angusreid.org/interprovinc... #CDNpoli #CDNhealth

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 10/06/2025

I agree with @kateadamala.bsky.social Don’t make mirror life. Great conversation with @nathanlabenz.bsky.social pca.st/episode/46dea5…

pca.st

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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 07/06/2025

Very smart, high ROI initiative from the Spencer Foundation. Providing bridge funding for canceled NSF grants: 1) directs funds to projects already screened by a top-noch review process. 2) avoids imposing proposal prep costs on researchers. 3) ameliorates the disruption from GOP sabotage.

spencer.org

Rapid Response Bridge Funding Program

In the face of recent abrupt shifts in federal funding for education research, including large-scale terminations of National Science Foundation (NSF) research grant awards, we have developed a rap...

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Gordon Pennycook @gordpennycook.bsky.social · 15/05/2025

Recent research shows that AI can durably reduce belief in conspiracies. But does this work b/c the AI is good at producing evidence, or b/c ppl really trust AI? In a new working paper, we show that the effect persists even if the person thinks they're talking to a human: osf.io/preprints/ps... 🧵

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

"On the right end, they don’t want renters in the neighborhood. On the left, they don’t want landlords in the neighborhood. They agree that we shouldn’t approve rental housing." @kevinerdmann.bsky.social

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

For those new to Superforecasting, looking for a good podcast introduction, you can find it here: @TomChivers @StuartJRitchie

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Deena Mousa @deenamousa.com · 03/03/2025

Deeply important research: The two-stair rule for mid-sized apartments once made sense, but today it blocks housing with no clear benefit. 🧵 x.com/Sustainable...

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Trump's actions pushing up recession risk dramatically in futures markets kalshi.com/markets/kxre... polymarket.com/event/us-rec...

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Ben Golub @bengolub.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

worth seeing

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Alexander Berger @albrgr.bsky.social · 20/02/2025

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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 19/02/2025

Bonus update! Choropleths are still visually distorted and overrepresent land, so we can instead use points that are sized by population. I added an example at the end to show one way to do this with {sf}'s magical st_centroid() #rstats www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...

Map showing county-level unemployment rate as points sized by the number of people in the labor force

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Bryan Caplan asks how much more money would Bill Gates have donated if Microsoft hadn't been prosecuted on antitrust grounds. This is a partial equilibrium question, which is fine for a post, but I hope he addresses antitrust in general equilibrium. www.betonit.ai/p/antitrust_...

betonit.ai

Antitrust Kills

Caplan and Candor

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 16/12/2023

Who knows housing data? I'm looking for housing construction, prices, and population in major cities.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 13/11/2023

I am not "anti-tech" but I see great potential value in the "Wait Until 8th" pledge (delaying kids' smartphones). Kids and parents feel pressure not to be "the only one" without a smartphone. Publicly discussing this decision makes it easier for other families. Thoughts?

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 07/11/2023

Also, what's the most comprehensive current measure of news outlet or domain slant?

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 07/11/2023

What is the environmental cost of owning a car, as compared with driving it?

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