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Tim Welch

@tfwelch.com
2.3K followers 685 following 2K posts

urban planner, educator, transport nerd, data geek, dad

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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 28/09/2026
We're on a mission to map and catalog every tree in New Zealand, creating a complete digital record of its entire life. ALTO, the Aotearoa Long-term Tree Observatory, is over 6.2 millions trees strong and growing! Check out the Auckland release: alto.tfwelch.com
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 23/09/2026
I guess I misinterpreted “bike to school day.” Oh well. I had a lovely time cycling with my kid’s bike…
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 15/07/2026
Finally got to ride the new Devonport hybrid-electric ferry! I kept thinking something was wrong because it was so quiet, we never got the bone rattling revving diesel engines. But the unexpected bonus was the massive windows! I couldn’t even capture the whole window in one photo. Love it!
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 01/07/2026
Nobody send me another email. I want to keep this round number! And also, there will be a long queue to get to your email...
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Julie Fairey (she/her) @juliefairey.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Apologies to @timwelch.nz that should have been @tfwelch.com for the Auckland Transport Access Atlas, which is a good opportunity for me to share this snapshot of the cycling safety lens applied to Where To Act - check it out yourself here ataa.tfwelch.com
Screenshot from the atlas that shows a bunch of dark red spots around Akld's city centre and across the centre west of the isthmus, indicating where cycling safety infra would reduce harm, based on crash data.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 19/06/2026
This morning in the Nelson Mail, the impact of lower and higher speeds on SH6 Blenheim to Nelson: www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/3610... And the full data and analysis backing the article: crash.tfwelch.com/nelson/ People will die on SH6 due to higher speeds.
thepress.co.nz
Highway crashes climbing after speed limit rise, says expert
A year on from speed limit reversals on the highway between Nelson and Blenheim, NZTA say its hard to draw conclusions but a transport expert says crashes are on the rise.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 19/06/2026
Never a dull moment when you‘re a public transport user! Bayswater ferry I was on seems to have run aground. They got it moving again and hustled us off the boat. Hasn‘t sunk (yet) so that’s good. But definetly a first for me!
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 18/06/2026
Sometimes you see something cool, and you want it for yourself. Inspired by Anthony Castrio's nyc-cartogram, I made an Auckland version: drop a pin and the city is redrawn by public-transport travel time instead of distance, with a couple more modes and a few extra features. warp.tfwelch.com
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Geordie Rogers @geordierogers.co.nz · 17/06/2026
The council should not be jeopardising millions of dollars of government funding on the basis of such a flawed review. This review set out to kill investment in our public spaces, and it's tried to achieve that by fudging the numbers www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/3610...
thepost.co.nz
Wellington Green councillor claims $189m error in Golden Mile review
“The council should not be jeopardising millions of dollars of government funding on the basis of such a flawed review,” says councillor Geordie Rogers.
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Russell Brown @publicaddress.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
An infuriating analysis from @tfwelch.com of how the Budget reflects transport priorities. 3/4 of new capital spending to roading, and most of that to *one road*. Zero new investment in walking and cycling. Fuel excise relief signalled, but not PT fare relief. theconversation.com/as-global-fu...
theconversation.com
As global fuel risk rises, NZ Budget 2026 puts roads first – again
Budget 2026 increases road spending – while offering limited support for public transport, emissions cuts and climate resilience.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 04/06/2026
I frequently read OIA requests and responses (related to transport and infrastructure) and see all kinds of things, but this (unrelated) one made me laugh. And the genuine response is just as good. "Why did someone look at my LinkedIn?" Gotta love public records!
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 29/05/2026
Budget 2026 hierarchy: roads first, rail a distant second, general public transport, walking and cycling nowhere. $150m goes to fuel supply, but basically nothing to reducing oil dependence. My latest: theconversation.com/as-global-fu...
theconversation.com
As global fuel risk rises, NZ Budget 2026 puts roads first – again
Budget 2026 increases road spending – while offering limited support for public transport, emissions cuts and climate resilience.
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Rod Emmerson @rodemmerson.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
From the Archives : Poverty 2012 and 2021
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 28/05/2026
$15b in weather losses over the past decade. Moa Point dumped 70m litres of raw sewage into Wellington Harbour. Groundwater contamination is rising. Half our rivers are unsafe to swim. Budget 2026 drops water spend from $127m (2026) → $35m (2027) → $5m/yr (2028–30). Make it make sense.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 28/05/2026
We're in the midst of the worst oil crisis in history and the government's new budget is dedicating $1.8 billion to a single highway while taking $2.5m from public transport bus decarbonisation to fund underground utility maintenance.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 27/05/2026
When the government releases its budget later today and undoubtedly puts more money towards roads while putting less money into public transport and no money into cycling or walking, remember that driving is the only mode of transportation that is both currently and historically falling in Auckland.
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Greater Auckland @greaterauckland.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
“In our biggest cities... if we can encourage people to use public transport more, that will reduce pressure on fuel demand that can be used for people who don't have public transport options available." Featuring our own Matt Lowrie (and wise words from @tfwelch.com): www.rnz.co.nz/news/environ...
rnz.co.nz
Auckland bus passengers hit record high as fuel crisis bites
One global crisis killed off public transport use in Auckland. Another has brought it roaring back. The question now is: what next?
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 24/05/2026
I don’t accept that sweeping away our most vulnerable people for the comfort of those that don’t want to see our society’s inequities is legitimate policy. And neither should you. My latest piece for Newsroom: newsroom.co.nz/2026/05/25/m... #waronthepoor
newsroom.co.nz
Move-on orders punish poverty while we defund all the ways out of it
Comment: Begging and rough sleeping aren’t crimes of disorder. They’re symptoms of an under-resourced, under-performing security net.
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Peter Norton @norton.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Adam Douglas Thompson in The New Yorker.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 22/05/2026
They're taking the land that houses our people, and the water for crops that feed our people, to build the data centers that will put our people out of work. What's the problem? www.theverge.com/ai-artificia...
theverge.com
The biggest data center ever is becoming a huge problem in Utah
Kevin O’Leary wants to cover 40,000 acres. Residents say, ‘Not in my backyard.’
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 21/05/2026
Only one word can adequately describe this video: PERFECT. www.youtube.com/watch?v=790O...
youtube.com
RAIL REPLACEMENT BUS - by Lorraine Bowen
YouTube video by Lorraine Bowen’s YouTube!
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 14/05/2026
I’ve been doing it for 5 years now, but getting to work on a bike and ferry is still such an unbelievably amazing privilege. So much better than driving!
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 14/05/2026
You’d think a 20% rise in cycling trips from April 2025 would be headline news. 309,197 cycle trips in April, 1.30 million YTD, and 3.48 million over the past 12 months. Amid surging fuel prices, Aucklanders are finding cheaper, healthier ways to get around. More data at: cycleway.tfwelch.com
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Bike Auckland @bikeauckland.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Say hello to the CCET Love Cycling Centre in Mt Eden – the free bike repair service on a mission to help you reduce your carbon footprint. www.bikeauckland.org.nz/news/welcom…
person fixing bike under marquee outside blue shipping container workshop
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 14/05/2026
A decision on Auckland’s next Waitematā Harbour crossing is expected (maybe) next month. Worth remembering: bridge traffic still hasn’t returned to its 2018 peak, and 50% of commuters now cross the harbour by bus. So why is the current process focused on more road capacity? Move people, not cars.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 10/05/2026
Most transport maps show where infrastructure is. I wanted to show what that infrastructure actually lets people reach. I’ve been building the Auckland Transport Access Atlas: an interactive map of car dependency, accessibility, equity, and planner priorities across Auckland. ataa.tfwelch.com
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 21/04/2026
It will be interesting to see where fuel prices go in the coming weeks and how closely/quickly they track crude prices. In MBIE's latest fuel stock update, on-shore diesel stock slipped below 20 days. Worth noting: retail price data is 11 days old, and fuel stock data is 6 days old.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 19/04/2026
My kids were not thrilled at school drop off this morning when the cargo bike odometer hit this number right as we parked. They suggested I should walk home so they could see the rollover to 3k after school.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 10/04/2026
How you can tell this isn’t my first cyclone (or hurricane)!
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 10/04/2026
Not a bad view from the home office to wrap up a long week!
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 08/04/2026
“It would be a pretty big mistake to dust off our hands and say problem solved. This is going to be an ongoing problem. Even if the issues with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are resolved fairly quickly, oil imports will continue to be a liability for the country.” www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360...
thepost.co.nz
The Post
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 08/04/2026
Every effective tool for reducing fuel demand right now (free PT, cycling, EVs, lower speed limits) is a policy the NZ coalition government has spent two years dismantling. My new piece in The Conversation on why they've gone quiet and how they get out of it. theconversation.com/the-governme...
theconversation.com
The government has boxed itself in over fuel saving strategies – but there is a way out
Promoting fuel saving measures as vital to energy security would help frame the oil shock as a technical problem to be solved, not a political issue to be fought.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 03/04/2026
MBIE’s national retail fuel series was basically flat through Jan and most of Feb. Then, from 27 Feb to 27 Mar 2026, diesel rose about $1.42/L, regular petrol about 82c/L, and premium 95 about 85c/L. This is not just a fuel-price story. It is a transport-policy story.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 02/04/2026
Hard to argue with that. We've seen what he eats...
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 01/04/2026
People rushing to drop $50k on a new EV and commit to years of payments, insurance, registration, WOF, etc. I'm trying to decide whether to replace the $7 kickstand feet on my "EV" or wait another month. Cargo e-bikes would probably work for a lot more people than you'd think.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 31/03/2026
On Monday, MBIE said we have 54 days of diesel cover. But only 22 days are actually on shore. The rest is on water, most outside the "EEZ", weeks away. The headline number blends fuel that's here with fuel that isn't. The dark bar is what matters most. We're a week past this data now.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 30/03/2026
Let's take a moment and appreciate how much work public transport in Auckland does every day. Here's an animation of 5 hours of buses, trains, and ferries serving the city yesterday, with somewhere around 400,000 boards across over 5,000 bus stops, train stations, and ferry terminals.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 29/03/2026
57.7% of NZers, 2.9 million people, can reach public transport within a 10-minute walk. Auckland hits 87.8%. The govt's new fuel subsidy targets 143,000 families. Free fares could reach 20x as many. NZ has the access. What's the argument against?
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 29/03/2026
This monstrosity is burning 3.5 litres of fuel per second.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 29/03/2026
People in $90,000 utes with 80-litre fuel tanks, call me an elitist for riding a $2.5k ebike that costs $0.10 (yes, 10 CENTS) to charge... (Photo from Reddit)
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Greater Auckland @greaterauckland.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Yes, and – we'd nuance this, e.g. for Auckland & Wellington (already high usage/ good services), govt could consider options like: • deep discounts for children, young people, CSC holders • and 50% off all fares, or a lower weekly cap ...while focusing fully free fares on smaller cities and towns.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 26/03/2026
In my latest for @newsroom.co.nz, I argue the government should make public transport free for at least three months. The $50 fuel payment costs $373M/year and doesn't cut a single litre of consumption. Free fares would cost less and actually reduce petrol demand. newsroom.co.nz/2026/03/27/f...
newsroom.co.nz
Free public transport the fuel crisis response that makes sense
Opinion from Auckland University: Targeted fuel relief doesn’t reduce a single litre of consumption. Free public transport, however, delivers household relief, eases congestion, and conserves fuel for...
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 26/03/2026
BREAKING: information now coming in that the Dutch have been hoarding the solution to the oil crisis.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 26/03/2026
Uh oh... MBIE's fuel stock update page has suddenly vanished!
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 26/03/2026
While we're paying more at the pump, fuel importers are making almost nothing. MBIE's own data shows the diesel importer margin has collapsed to near zero. NZ is 100% import-dependent. When there's no margin, either prices rise (a lot) further, or supply doesn't come. There is no third option.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 25/03/2026
New MBIE data (Mar 22): in-country diesel down to 18 days, territory where the National Fuel Plan contemplates mandatory constraints. Yet we are doing nothing. Only 2 ships arriving in the next 2 weeks, 1 carries diesel. Total supply: 46.6 days, down from 52 in two weeks. Updated graphic below.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 24/03/2026
With the government's $50/week tax credit, if a family uses all that money for fuel, at current prices around $3.33/litre and a fuel economy of 8L/100km, they could drive 187.5 km. Or just under 27 km a week. How much further could families travel with free public transport?
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 24/03/2026
It'd be cheaper, better address the cost of living, and more effectively reduce fuel demand to make public transport free, at least for a few months, than the $50 the government is now offering. We should consider Green's proposal. CC @julieannegenter.greens.org.nz www.auckland.ac.nz/en/news/2026...
auckland.ac.nz
Free public transport could be the smarter reflief package – University of Auckland
The Green Party’s proposal to make public transport free for three months would cost a fraction of current fuel relief spending, while cutting reliance on imported oil, says Dr Timothy Welch.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 23/03/2026
Why isn't the government even talking about the fairly easy voluntary fuel demand constraints that are laid out in the National Fuel Plan? Makes sense to start some of this now. None of this would cost anything.
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Tim Welch @tfwelch.com · 23/03/2026
Realistically, we likely have less than 3 weeks of diesel and under a month of petrol supplies in New Zealand right now. There's an additional 22 and 25 days of both fuels, respectively, on its way to us. Beyond that, who knows... We really need to be seriously talking reducing fuel demand.
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