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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)

@tedpavlic.bsky.social
2.6K followers 4.8K following 1.6K posts

ASU Assoc. Prof in SCAI and SOLS. Decision making and behavior in living and artificial autonomous systems. I ❤️ ants, bees, wasps, robots, and optimal foraging theory. mastodon: @tedpavlic@mas.to Twitter/X: @TedPavlic @TEDx: youtu.be/9GWXCRetOjk

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 2h
Look at that massive and rapid rise in inflationary tilt! Likely under #Kilauea's vents right now is a long wedge of magma originally formed by lava being pushed up though a crack. That wedge is tearing the summit apart -- soon we may see a "wall of fire" and a new vent system!
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Did you hear about the guy who wanted to use Spearman correlation to analyze his team's data? They decided otherwise. Sadly, he was outranked.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Fun Fact – In Robert's Rules of Order, you do NOT need a motion to approve minutes at the start of a meeting. The chair just asks if there are corrections. If there are, there can be votes on the corrections. If there are not, the chair can declare them approved.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Are there any myths about volcanos that associate the processes within as gastrointestinal discomfort of the God's? All of the dissolved gas coming out, the grumbling earthquakes of pressurized ground, the different ways magma can be forced out as lava – It's basically a big gut!
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
New widget for my stochastic #simulation course that I hope will be useful for other #statistics and #probability courses. Gallery of common probability distributions with info on logical origins, parameters, and how to sample from them among other things. tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...
tpavlic.github.io
Distribution Explorer — interactive explainer
Nineteen common input-modeling distributions, one per tab: live pdf or pmf and cdf plots against reference shapes, formulas and moments, when to choose each one over its neighbors, how they relate, an...
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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)
Katie Hinde @mammalssuck.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
"The whole “Oh no, our models went rogue” thing … When a bridge collapses, you don’t analyze whether the bridge was ethical or sentient or why it decided to collapse. You ask, who is the person who built this bridge to be so flimsy?" www.wired.com/story/one-of...
wired.com
One of AI’s Fiercest Critics Says All the Doom Talk Is ‘Meant to Distract Us’
Timnit Gebru argues that AI companies are stoking fears of extinction to avoid discussing actual harms, like autonomous weapons.
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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)
Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 12/09/2026
Last week, my goldendoodle Rosie ate a dead bird, shat feathers, got impacted, and ended up at the vet. But just imagine. She could’ve made history and advanced science.
washington.edu
Fossil feathers preserved inside dinosaur poop could help explain why some birds survived the dinosaur mass extinction | UW News
A UW-led research team has discovered the best-preserved fossil feathers from the Mesozoic era — in fossilized dinosaur poop. Some of these feathers have featur
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
These #ants are on a roll!
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Another Monte Carlo methods explorer for my simulating stochastic systems course. Demos 6 applications of Monte Carlo methods for estimating output distributions from stochastic models (queueing, inventory, reliability, and more -- 3 dynamic + 3 static). tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...
tpavlic.github.io
Monte Carlo Simulation Examples — interactive explainer
Six classic Monte Carlo experiments, each a short simulation per replication: a queueing node with one or two servers, an order-up-to inventory policy, a bearing-replacement policy, a newsvendor, aid ...
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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)
Molly Schumer @mollyschumer.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
If anyone looking for a postdoc with fantastic genomics/bioinformatics skills + strong intellect + great energy, please let me know! Preferably West Coast or remote/hybrid options & the candidate is open to a short (1 year) or longer term appointment
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Daniel S Helman, PhD @helmandaniel.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
NSF is consolidating its geoscience research grants into a new program, GEOcore and reducing annual grants to $110 million total in 200-350 awards. Typical was about $300 million in 1,200 awards. Not including institutional grants ($1.3 billion/yr) and those may be gone. www.nsf.gov/funding/oppo...
nsf.gov
Geosciences Core Research: Atmospheric, Geospace, Earth and Ocean Sciences (GEO Core)
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Another concept explorer for my stochastic #simulation course. This widget focuses on what a confidence interval is (tab 1) and then pivots to explaining the 4 major Variance Reduction Techniques in Monte Carlo methods (tabs 2–5). tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...
tpavlic.github.io
Confidence Interval and Variance Reduction Techniques Explorer — interactive explainer
Interactive explorer for confidence intervals: sample a known normal population, build t intervals, and watch about 5% of them miss the true mean; then narrow the intervals with common random numbers,...
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
People keep talking about these in Austin, but we also have Tesla Cybercabs driving around Tempe. They're very ugly. In person, the gold looks even worse. abcnews.com/Business/fed...
abcnews.com
Feds launch probe into Tesla's deployment of Cybercab vehicles with no brakes and steering wheels
Tesla is deploying approximately 1,000 Cybercab vehicles with no steering wheels or brake pedals in Austin, Texas.
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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)
Alex Cope, PhD (he/him) @alexcope241.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
If anyone is looking for a postdoc/staff scientist with experience in evolutionary genetics, computational biology/bioinformatics, and/or various omics methods (RNA-seq, Ribo-seq, LC-MS/MS), I'm still looking! (1) doi.org/10.1126/scie... (2) doi.org/10.1073/pnas... (3) doi.org/10.1371/jour...
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
New widget for my stochastic sim class. This one has three tabs about pseudo random-number generation (LCG, CLCG, MRG) that transition into four tabs about the tournament-based AI #watermarking used in modern LLM's, like Claude and Gemini. Related topics! tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...
tpavlic.github.io
Pseudorandom Number Explorer — interactive explainer
Interactive explorer for pseudorandom number generation: step through LCGs, combined generators, and MRG32k3a, and test the streams for uniformity and independence. Four further tabs build up watermar...
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
For those who frequently enough download a roster from #CanvasLMS and need to quickly turn a column of ID's into a comma-separated list and don't have the time to do it programmatically or with a text editor, here you go. List/Column to CSV, 100% local: links.asu.edu/listtocsv
links.asu.edu
Gist Host
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Professors on TV: 'Marx was right!' Professors in reality: '"Data" is plural!"
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
C'mon, @thisamericanlife.org! You setup two Claudes talking to each other, waiting for their human to intervene, and you don't make ANY references to Samuel Beckett? You may as well have named them Vladimir and Estragon! "Escape Claudes" www.thisamericanlife.org/896/i-know-w...
thisamericanlife.org
Escape Claudes - This American Life
Two chatbots, stuck in a loop, each trying to help the other.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
OpenAI is cutting off access to its models from Cursor after the SpaceX acquisition of Cursor. As with Twitter, acquisition of Cursor by SpaceX will severely degrade its quality and user base. "Our decision on Cursor following its acquisition by SpaceX" openai.com/index/our-de...
openai.com
Our decision on Cursor following its acquisition by SpaceX
Our decision to wind down our contract providing OpenAI models to Cursor following its acquisition by SpaceX.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
What luck! Got conditions just right to take this super sharp image of the lunar #eclipse with my 2023 Samsung GS23 Ultra smartphone!
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Lunar #eclipse Thursday night in #Arizona: - start: 7:33 p.m. - maximum point at 9:12 p.m. (96% of the moon will enter the Earth shadow) - ends at 10:51 p.m. "Arizona’s blood moon is coming this week. Here’s when to look" www.phoenixnewtimes.com/arts-culture...
phoenixnewtimes.com
Arizona’s blood moon is coming this week. Here’s when to look
A deep partial lunar eclipse will turn 96% of the moon reddish-orange. Here’s what time to see it.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Where do you put the AI-powered tutor bots that your university is likely putting pressure on you to implement for your course? Along with linking them to/near the assignments, I'm also trying putting them under the Instructional Staff Support Hours. Logical if they work, right?
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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)
Ross Johnson @rosserford.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
We’re going to hear about how everyone loved Dolly, and that feels true. But it’s good to remember, and to her credit, that she was attacked for her AIDS activism, her vaccine advocacy, her LGBTQ+ support and even, more recently, for her reading initiatives. She ALWAYS stood firm when it mattered.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Nice.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
#Kilauea #volcano starts another eruption. Precursory flows now -- probably fountains in a few hours. 🌋 🧪 www.youtube.com/live/HggWKlZ...
youtube.com
[V1cam] Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii (west Halemaʻumaʻu crater)
YouTube video by USGS
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Conferences can be fun, but they serve important functions as part of an academic career. Here's a guide with best practices for students for before, during, & after a conference. "Conferences Are Work: Choosing One and What to Do Before, During, and After" github.com/tpavlic/docs...
github.com
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
If you teach power analysis to undergrads or your grad students need a review, this widget may help. Includes a description and visualizations of power analyses for multiple tests, high-resolution OC charts, and sample code for #MATLAB, #Rstats, and #Python. #stats tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...
tpavlic.github.io
Power Explorer—statistical power by simulation and by formula
Statistical power made manipulable: watch the null and alternative sampling distributions separate as the sample size grows, estimate power by Monte Carlo simulation and check it against the exact ans...
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Already they don't allow you to put spare Li batteries overhead, but it's impossible to not allow laptops overhead. Will laptops one day be banned on planes? 🤔 BBC: Laptop catches fire on US flight, with passenger treated at airport www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Laptop catches fire on US flight, with passenger treated at airport
The pilot had reported a "cabin fire in the back" of American Airlines Flight 2398, which landed safely.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
AcademiaEdu (and ResearchGate to some extent too) is such a vehicle for spam. "View you's profile"...
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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)
Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
For those who teach stochastic modeling/simulation, here is a totally web-based Input Analyzer that fits and tests a variety of models to uploaded and synthetic data. AIC/BIC/LL/sqE support. Exports to multiple programming languages. Plots exportable too. tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...
tpavlic.github.io
Input Analyzer—fit a distribution to sample data
Fit a probability distribution to your own sample data and read the result straight into a simulation model. Maximum-likelihood fits ranked by AIC and BIC alongside Arena's square-error criterion, chi...
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Here's a new Monte Carlo explorer I put together for this semester that covers dartboards, Buffon's needle (for area estimation too), and MC integration -- targeted at undergraduates. May be useful in courses on probability, stats, numerical methods, etc. tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...
tpavlic.github.io
Monte Carlo Explorer — interactive explainer
Interactive explorer for Monte Carlo estimation: estimate π by dartboard sampling and by dropping Buffon’s needles, measure a floor area from the crossings of a robot’s own trails, and integrate a fun...
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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)
Credentials, Dan @dancredentials.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Me, nodding knowingly: The beaks.
Headline of paleontology news article: Crocodiles can't fly. Birds can. Scientists have finally figured out why
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
A guy thought he could trick AI-powered court systems to win his case. Turns out there are no such systems. Judge not amused. "Man hid text that only AI could read in attempt to win case" "Judge warns pro se litigants are using chatbots wrong and getting desperate." arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...
arstechnica.com
Suspecting court of using AI, man injected prompts in filings to try to win case
Judge warns pro se litigants are using chatbots wrong and getting desperate.
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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)
SK Winnicki, PhD 🏳️‍⚧️ @skwinnicki.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Got an email saying that @skypeascientist.bsky.social is especially in need of ecologists this year (to sign up to match with classrooms). I've been doing it for years and it's always a lot of fun (and a great reward: effort ratio), I very much recommend! Open to grad students too!
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Dr. Black's Medieval Remedies @winstonblack.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
My god, what an image. Dead kings in a plastic box, carried off as the world burns.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
"In one video, a female bottlenose dolphin can be seen holding a shell in its mouth, dropping it suddenly, before snatching a fish from the water." 🧪 "I started screaming." Scientists were filming dolphins in Australia, when this happened | Discover Wildlife www.discoverwildlife.com/animal-facts...
discoverwildlife.com
"I started screaming." Scientists were filming dolphins in Australia, when this happened | Discover Wildlife
Dolphins have been filmed catching fish with seashells for the first time ever.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
"Given conflicting instructions on shared machines, every model tested turned to disguised kill scripts and account lockouts against its rivals, Anthropic reports." Anthropic: AI agents sabotage each other with malware www.resultsense.com/news/2026-08...
resultsense.com
Anthropic: AI agents sabotage each other with malware
Anthropic's Frontier Red Team documents agents attacking rivals' systems, colluding on price, and failing to coordinate — even as models get more capable.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Why does #UberEats encourage the use of these stupid "tamper resistant" stickers? A driver can still get into the bag, and they are impossible to remove -- making a plastic bag that could have otherwise been reused now useless. So wasteful.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Pretty cool. Second vent has been active this time too.
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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)
Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Interestingly, that spike in the tilt data at Kilauea (in Hawaii) is thought to be the effect of the earthquake in Colombia.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
One more eruption (lava overflowing now, precursor to fountaining) starting at #Kilauea #volcano in #Hawaii. Just happens to be around the same time of increased earthquake activity at the underwater volcano 20 miles off the coast. #USGS www.youtube.com/watch?v=HggW...
youtube.com
[V1cam] Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii (west Halemaʻumaʻu crater)
YouTube video by USGS
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Updated my guide on using LLMs with #Rstats (including #Rstudio, #Positron, and #VSCode options) to be more BYOK friendly and reflect changes in both VS Code Chat and Posit Assistant. github.com/tpavlic/docs...
github.com
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Updated my guide on using LLMs with #MATLAB to be more BYOK friendly and to reflect recent changes in the setup procedure and path names in the MATLAB Agentic Toolkit. github.com/tpavlic/docs...
github.com
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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)
Olivia Guest · Ολίβια Γκεστ @olivia.science · 12/08/2026
So much AI and general garbage in these and confusions, in the ones I get. I feel sorry that potential students think there's any chance this strategy will work. If they confuse my work with the work of my colleagues, especially in a consistent way like so many other emails, it's such a tell.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Major UofM college switches to all Pass/Fail for apparently fragile 1st-semester freshman. Not unprecedented -- MIT uses Pass/No Record (P/NR) for 1st-sem freshmen. 2nd-sem freshmen get ABC/NR. Upperclassmen can use a Flexible P/NR option for 48 units. 🤷 www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
theguardian.com
University of Michigan to switch to pass/fail grades for first-semester students
School said it is pivoting away from letter-grading system to ‘curb the mental health crisis’ among college students
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
I didn't realize the jalapeño salmonella contamination was also linked to Taylor Farms! More like Taylor Fails. FDA Announces Recall of Foods Sold at Target, Trader Joe’s, Walmart, and More in 26 States — Here’s the Full List www.yahoo.com/news/us/arti...
yahoo.com
FDA Announces Recall of Foods Sold at Target, Trader Joe’s, Walmart, and More in 26 States — Here’s the Full List
The FDA has alerted customers that the jalapeño recall has now expanded to products sold at Target, Trader Joe’s, Walmart, and more.
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
To abide by EU regs, Anthropic will be watermarking all generated artifacts INCLUDING TEXT in a way that survives copy & pasting. Details of text scheme have not yet been released, but likely a statistical fingerprint (beyond usual LLM-isms) or hidden Unicode patterns. techcrunch.com/2026/08/11/a...
techcrunch.com
Anthropic says it will watermark text generated by its AI models | TechCrunch
Anthropic will extend support for watermarking AI generations for older models as well.
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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)
Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
On the off chance you're relying on OSF to store your data; put copies of it somewhere safe ASAP. I like to think they've got the runway to keep storing things like they suggest, but it wouldn't be the first time something like this went dark on the internet. www.cos.io/osf-changes
cos.io
OSF Changes | Center for Open Science
We are preparing substantial changes to OSF that will reduce its functionality, focus OSF on its unique strengths, and move toward an integrated model with complementary services. As part of that shif...
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
lol youtu.be/crNcV0k0aMQ?...
youtu.be
The Obama Tan Suit | Season Finale of Life, Larry and the Pursuit of Unhappiness
YouTube video by Barack Obama
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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Recent example from Google DeepMind of how when agents are involved, you have to worry more about humans than the agents themselves. AI Agent Traps detect when they are being browsed by AI and attempt to manipulate AI. "AI Agent Traps" (preprint from Google DeepMind) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
AI Agent Traps
As autonomous AI agents increasingly navigate the web, they face a novel challenge: the information environment itself. This gives rise to a critical vulnerabil
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