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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 12h

Cool (or warm) Kilauea #volcano satellite imagery (interferometry). Inferred position of magma wedge are the yellow lines. The blue (red) regions is movement away from (toward) the satellite. Ground "crinkled" to make room for the dike wedging itself up through it around the yellow dashed lines. 🧪

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 20h

Has anyone else's admin made the decision to get rid of office trash service? Seems to be a new pattern emerging. Creates a kind of "workday walk of shame" as people carry teabags and coffee pods all around a building looking for just one trashcan. My kingdom for a trashcan!

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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)

🎃 Decorative Gourd Mikell 🎃 @mikell.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Today is International Women in Robotics Day. Instead of just wishing a woman robotics a happy day, consider paying her more, ensuring she’s set up for promotion, or inviting her to speak on a technical topic rather than her experience as a woman in a male dominated field!

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Cities as refuges for those who the rest of the nation cast out as their families failed to love them. Under that framing, cities may be a symptom of something that's wrong, but it's not really clear it's something that's wrong in the cities.

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

New 🧪 findings show Rosalind Franklin had an earlier X-ray crystallography photo revealing the helical structure of DNA, and her notes about THAT photo showed she recognized it was a helix (and even estimated turn length). Explains why later photograph didn't have notes (and Watson took sole credit)

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

A new widget for my stochastic sim course that might be useful for more general #stats courses -- can act as a web-based replacement for basic JMP. Load data sets at top, do parametric and nonparametric one-sample, two-sample, and multi-comparisons/ANOVA. tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...

tpavlic.github.io

Output Analyzer – analyze simulation output

Analyze stochastic-simulation output in the browser: import replication output, form confidence intervals on replication means, compare two or more designs (Welch, paired, Bonferroni, ANOVA with Tukey...

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Look at that massive and rapid rise in inflationary tilt! Likely under #Kilauea's vents right now is a long wedge of magma originally formed by lava being pushed up though a crack. That wedge is tearing the summit apart -- soon we may see a "wall of fire" and a new vent system!

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Did you hear about the guy who wanted to use Spearman correlation to analyze his team's data? They decided otherwise. Sadly, he was outranked.

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Fun Fact – In Robert's Rules of Order, you do NOT need a motion to approve minutes at the start of a meeting. The chair just asks if there are corrections. If there are, there can be votes on the corrections. If there are not, the chair can declare them approved.

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Are there any myths about volcanos that associate the processes within as gastrointestinal discomfort of the God's? All of the dissolved gas coming out, the grumbling earthquakes of pressurized ground, the different ways magma can be forced out as lava – It's basically a big gut!

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

New widget for my stochastic #simulation course that I hope will be useful for other #statistics and #probability courses. Gallery of common probability distributions with info on logical origins, parameters, and how to sample from them among other things. tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...

tpavlic.github.io

Distribution Explorer — interactive explainer

Nineteen common input-modeling distributions, one per tab: live pdf or pmf and cdf plots against reference shapes, formulas and moments, when to choose each one over its neighbors, how they relate, an...

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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)

Katie Hinde @mammalssuck.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

"The whole “Oh no, our models went rogue” thing … When a bridge collapses, you don’t analyze whether the bridge was ethical or sentient or why it decided to collapse. You ask, who is the person who built this bridge to be so flimsy?" www.wired.com/story/one-of...

wired.com

One of AI’s Fiercest Critics Says All the Doom Talk Is ‘Meant to Distract Us’

Timnit Gebru argues that AI companies are stoking fears of extinction to avoid discussing actual harms, like autonomous weapons.

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Another Monte Carlo methods explorer for my simulating stochastic systems course. Demos 6 applications of Monte Carlo methods for estimating output distributions from stochastic models (queueing, inventory, reliability, and more -- 3 dynamic + 3 static). tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...

tpavlic.github.io

Monte Carlo Simulation Examples — interactive explainer

Six classic Monte Carlo experiments, each a short simulation per replication: a queueing node with one or two servers, an order-up-to inventory policy, a bearing-replacement policy, a newsvendor, aid ...

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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)

Molly Schumer @mollyschumer.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

If anyone looking for a postdoc with fantastic genomics/bioinformatics skills + strong intellect + great energy, please let me know! Preferably West Coast or remote/hybrid options & the candidate is open to a short (1 year) or longer term appointment

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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)

Daniel S Helman, PhD @helmandaniel.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

NSF is consolidating its geoscience research grants into a new program, GEOcore and reducing annual grants to $110 million total in 200-350 awards. Typical was about $300 million in 1,200 awards. Not including institutional grants ($1.3 billion/yr) and those may be gone. www.nsf.gov/funding/oppo...

nsf.gov

Geosciences Core Research: Atmospheric, Geospace, Earth and Ocean Sciences (GEO Core)

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Another concept explorer for my stochastic #simulation course. This widget focuses on what a confidence interval is (tab 1) and then pivots to explaining the 4 major Variance Reduction Techniques in Monte Carlo methods (tabs 2–5). tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...

tpavlic.github.io

Confidence Interval and Variance Reduction Techniques Explorer — interactive explainer

Interactive explorer for confidence intervals: sample a known normal population, build t intervals, and watch about 5% of them miss the true mean; then narrow the intervals with common random numbers,...

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

In case anyone is interested, the engineering version of the #Tesla #Cybercab that they're using in testing *does* have a steering wheel that plugs in under a panel that would normally be covered. See image below from this one on a Tesla service center lot.

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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)

Alex Cope, PhD (he/him) @alexcope241.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

If anyone is looking for a postdoc/staff scientist with experience in evolutionary genetics, computational biology/bioinformatics, and/or various omics methods (RNA-seq, Ribo-seq, LC-MS/MS), I'm still looking! (1) doi.org/10.1126/scie... (2) doi.org/10.1073/pnas... (3) doi.org/10.1371/jour...

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

New widget for my stochastic sim class. This one has three tabs about pseudo random-number generation (LCG, CLCG, MRG) that transition into four tabs about the tournament-based AI #watermarking used in modern LLM's, like Claude and Gemini. Related topics! tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...

tpavlic.github.io

Pseudorandom Number Explorer — interactive explainer

Interactive explorer for pseudorandom number generation: step through LCGs, combined generators, and MRG32k3a, and test the streams for uniformity and independence. Four further tabs build up watermar...

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

For those who frequently enough download a roster from #CanvasLMS and need to quickly turn a column of ID's into a comma-separated list and don't have the time to do it programmatically or with a text editor, here you go. List/Column to CSV, 100% local: links.asu.edu/listtocsv

links.asu.edu

Gist Host

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Professors on TV: 'Marx was right!' Professors in reality: '"Data" is plural!"

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

C'mon, @thisamericanlife.org! You setup two Claudes talking to each other, waiting for their human to intervene, and you don't make ANY references to Samuel Beckett? You may as well have named them Vladimir and Estragon! "Escape Claudes" www.thisamericanlife.org/896/i-know-w...

thisamericanlife.org

Escape Claudes - This American Life

Two chatbots, stuck in a loop, each trying to help the other.

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

OpenAI is cutting off access to its models from Cursor after the SpaceX acquisition of Cursor. As with Twitter, acquisition of Cursor by SpaceX will severely degrade its quality and user base. "Our decision on Cursor following its acquisition by SpaceX" openai.com/index/our-de...

openai.com

Our decision on Cursor following its acquisition by SpaceX

Our decision to wind down our contract providing OpenAI models to Cursor following its acquisition by SpaceX.

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

The bloodier images were not as nice... Props to those that can simultaneously capture the low-light detail of the shadow side and not get washed out on the sunny side!

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

'Twas a nice one. bsky.app/profile/tedp...

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

What luck! Got conditions just right to take this super sharp image of the lunar #eclipse with my 2023 Samsung GS23 Ultra smartphone!

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Lunar #eclipse Thursday night in #Arizona: - start: 7:33 p.m. - maximum point at 9:12 p.m. (96% of the moon will enter the Earth shadow) - ends at 10:51 p.m. "Arizona’s blood moon is coming this week. Here’s when to look" www.phoenixnewtimes.com/arts-culture...

phoenixnewtimes.com

Arizona’s blood moon is coming this week. Here’s when to look

A deep partial lunar eclipse will turn 96% of the moon reddish-orange. Here’s what time to see it.

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Where do you put the AI-powered tutor bots that your university is likely putting pressure on you to implement for your course? Along with linking them to/near the assignments, I'm also trying putting them under the Instructional Staff Support Hours. Logical if they work, right?

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

💯 "Huh. Maybe rocks aren't just for jocks!"

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Reposted by Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)

Hellrosser @rosserford.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

We’re going to hear about how everyone loved Dolly, and that feels true. But it’s good to remember, and to her credit, that she was attacked for her AIDS activism, her vaccine advocacy, her LGBTQ+ support and even, more recently, for her reading initiatives. She ALWAYS stood firm when it mattered.

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

One more. Different view. Really nice shape!

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Really dumping a lot of material out -- flows in several directions. Expecting fountain to peak around 500 ft.

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

#Kilauea #volcano starts another eruption. Precursory flows now -- probably fountains in a few hours. 🌋 🧪 www.youtube.com/live/HggWKlZ...

youtube.com

[V1cam] Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii (west Halemaʻumaʻu crater)

YouTube video by USGS

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Conferences can be fun, but they serve important functions as part of an academic career. Here's a guide with best practices for students for before, during, & after a conference. "Conferences Are Work: Choosing One and What to Do Before, During, and After" github.com/tpavlic/docs...

github.com

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Thanks! A topic that a lot of students I run into have trouble with and don't have much to turn to but dusty OC curves in textbooks. I hope this interactive tool might help.

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

If you teach power analysis to undergrads or your grad students need a review, this widget may help. Includes a description and visualizations of power analyses for multiple tests, high-resolution OC charts, and sample code for #MATLAB, #Rstats, and #Python. #stats tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...

tpavlic.github.io

Power Explorer—statistical power by simulation and by formula

Statistical power made manipulable: watch the null and alternative sampling distributions separate as the sample size grows, estimate power by Monte Carlo simulation and check it against the exact ans...

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Already they don't allow you to put spare Li batteries overhead, but it's impossible to not allow laptops overhead. Will laptops one day be banned on planes? 🤔 BBC: Laptop catches fire on US flight, with passenger treated at airport www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Laptop catches fire on US flight, with passenger treated at airport

The pilot had reported a "cabin fire in the back" of American Airlines Flight 2398, which landed safely.

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

It sounds like a lot, but I could do other work while Claude Code was working, and so it's "easy" to bang out one of these in a few hours (a day, maybe, interleaved with other work). 4/end

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Claude Code would build the widget and a reusable test harness to ensure correctness was maintained as we iterated. Design goes in phases -- say a tab at a time -- with me giving feedback on page elements and wording and UI/UX. 3/

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

I would start by giving short description of the vision of the widget to Claude and ask it to build me a complete prompt for Claude Code, which would itself be a mini-document that I would then review and edit and eventually pass to Claude Code (usually w/ more powerful model than used in Claude) 2/

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Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) @tedpavlic.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Thanks! I hope it will be helpful! I plan to build a few others in the near future -- like one on power analysis that I think will be much more helpful that the operating characteristic curve from the back of a textbook that my students usually use.

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