Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 11/10/2026Directly contradicting modern philosopher Stefon Diggs 000
Reposted by Steven KellySeth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Passing up 4th and a long 1 so you can go on 4th and 5 three minutes later 49711
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Do you think the Bears could get a 5th for Caleb Williams? 001
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 28/09/2026KoC being a Cousins/Darnold merchant really isn't what I expected two years ago, but it sorta has to be true at this point. He gets credit for crafting like 6 good Josh Dobbs quarters ig 110
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Geno's season is why we all need to chill out with the declarative, definitive QB takes 000
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 20/09/2026@sethwalder.bsky.social , thoughts on kicking to go up 6 there for MN? 000
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Sometimes you just need to build a play-by-play game simulator and confuse yourself about the results. Are the Jags for real? Are the Giants good (lol)? Do we give Pittsburgh any credit for beating the 50th best QB in the NFL? Check it out: kellycriterion.substack.com/p/nfl-power-... 000
Reposted by Steven KellyLuke Braun @lukebraunnfl.bsky.social · 15/09/2026there is jj mccarthy everywhere for those with eyes to see 2605
Reposted by Steven KellyLuke Braun @lukebraunnfl.bsky.social · 13/09/2026hey man why are you so down on the vikings this year? the vikings:static.klipy.comCarwash InfomercialALT: Carwash Infomercial 128413
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 08/09/2026I am extraordinarily jealous of the access to tracking data, this is so incredibly sick 010
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 31/08/2026@arif.bsky.social I just finished Thursday's Norse Code, and I have to say, Burrito Loco was goated. They used to run something like 30 cent wings on Wednesdays! There is a part of the human spirit that revels in self destruction and gluttony, and it was at home at bloco 020
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Yeah, I mean, I agree with that premise, but use of the word clanker is to the school shooting video game example as kickboxing for exercise is to domestic abuse or something. Like, idk, I find making that comparison offensive enough to reason that in making it one misunderstands the issue 020
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Not take my bet because you agree. I think that people saying Tua Turntheballova are engaging in way more harmful and gross speech than people using clanker to refer to their smart toaster or whatever, and I think that any breath spent criticizing those people is at least sorta stupid 100
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 25/08/2026It's not a real slur, it's sourced from the Star Wars prequel trilogy of all places. I'd wager an enormous sum of money that the group of people using the word clanker most often is far, far less likely to engage in race-based name calling than the group who have never used it, and I think you would 110
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Idk here, I think the difference is whether you've ever had a sense of humor. A video game version of a school shooting sounds like a horrible thing, and I think is a horrible faith analogy for use of the word clanker, which is a word we're all typing and saying precisely because... 100
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 22/08/2026Yeah, this really pains me to say, but Matt LF is who stans think KOC is rn 050
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 21/08/2026Wdym, she's 33rd in Wins/40 minutes dude! Sounds like an MVP to me 010
Reposted by Steven KellyRodger Sherman @rodger.bsky.social · 17/08/2026WHAT ABOUT ALL THE EVIDENCE 1430428
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 12/08/2026The reality is: -Caleb is currently mid, and would take a tremendous amount of growth to be good at the things he's bad at -If JJM (or any bad QB) had an equal amount of growth at their flaws they'd be much more than serviceable -both are possible and happen all the time Then I think you'll be fine 000
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 12/08/2026Jimmy G., Mac Jones, Josh Allen all have weird career arcs. Stroud (!!!). Bryce Young (!!!!!!) For the Caleb thing, I stg some people just don't watch Bears games. The number of layups this guy misses is unbelievable. It is obviously offset by his ability to do the insane, but 120
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 12/08/2026Yeah, this is way too deterministic a take for QB play man. Tua was bad, then great, then awful! Jared Goff was horrible and then great, shipped off by the people who made him great, and then better in DET. 120
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 10/08/2026I mean, both can be true as well. Like, the Rams are certainly: +By far the team we can be most confident in being good this year +More likely to lose their division than win the SB Football is weird, and 20% outcomes both happen more often than you'd think and not that often 020
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 01/08/2026Yeah, I think somewhere in the 70/30 range has always been right. If you want to overreact move it to 60/40. Anyone who thought it was 99/1 has been wrong for months 020
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 24/07/2026Gonna get my man here a bottle of Pollock's wine so he can EV-maxx 😎😎😎 000
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 24/07/2026The exam would be "have you ever touched grass before in your life", and "could you ever be convinced to touch grass if it's been too long" and you all would fail 010
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 24/07/2026We have to stop teaching people what Expected Value is, or at least require an exam before you can post about it online 110
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 23/07/2026$1M windfall is in the first 150K, and a flip for 150 isn't too dissimilar from a guaranteed 50. 000
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Sure, me too. I don't know where my line is. Closer to 100K than a million. But I think that one of the best reasons for progressive taxing is that you're taxing the most on dollars that matter the least. Extending that principle, it's not bad faith for to suggest that most of one's utility in a 100
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 23/07/2026I don't disagree, and would take the $1M flip. But, like, would you take $50K or a flip at $101K, and why? 110
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Like, you could phrase it as 1M or flip for 50M and 950 in charitable donations and it instantly gets you there, but every other common iteration of the problem is best considered almost exclusively selfishly imo 030
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Yeah, fair enough, I was thinking of it entirely selfishly, that's a good point. I do think that's a version of the answer that works only for numbers as high as a billion dollars (not for 50K vs 1M) though. 160
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Yeah, I mostly just mean the utility of $1M vs an EV of $500M (coin flip of a billion) is not a 500x difference, and idk if it's even a 50x difference 010
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Yeah, I was reading his initial post and just responded to the latest in the thread. mb I guess 110
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Now, if the utility of an additional Shrek statue is always positive....... 110
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Yeah, I mean, the marginal utility of the dollars between $50 Mil and a Bil is about 0 is the thing. 2170
Reposted by Steven KellyJames Hell Brooks @kleinman.bsky.social · 21/07/2026It's true, Odysseus should've been played by an actual Greek actor 341752185
Reposted by Steven Kelly"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 18/07/2026Both events, it must be stressed, are a direct result of exactly the kind of stupid-and-cruel warfighting that Pete Hegseth promised to bring to the US military and has delivered. Our army will become, by inches, more and more like the Russian one: cruel, incompetent, impotent, incapable, wicked. 842757
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 10/07/2026I haven't, like, looked into this, but my prior is that YBC is sort of like Sacks in that they're affected by OL play, but worse RBs will find ways to run into contact just like worse QBs will find ways to turn pressures into sacks 110
Reposted by Steven KellyArif Hasan, but NFL🔨⚒️🛠️ @arif.bsky.social · 07/07/2026Balogun quit the fancy shit this is like watching KOC call red zone plays 41114
Steven Kelly @stevinok.bsky.social · 01/07/2026In this analogy, Trump is Stefon Diggs I think, so do with that what you will 000
