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Stephen Burgess

@stevesphd.bsky.social
784 followers 174 following 244 posts

Medical statistician, work with genetic data to disentangle causation from correlation. Author of book on Mendelian randomization.

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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Video replay officials in football (soccer) have to perform counterfactual reasoning when giving an offside decision. If the offside player [Fernandez] had not attempted to play the ball, would the defending player [Martinez] have made a different decision? from www.bbc.co.uk/sport/footba...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
New publication "What phases of the drug development framework can epidemiological studies emulate?" at @amjepi.bsky.social led by me (!), with contributions from @jeremylabrecque.bsky.social, Emily, David R, and Sofia: academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
academic.oup.com
What phases of the drug development framework can epidemiological studies emulate?
Abstract. Target trial emulation prompts investigators to frame their analysis question in terms of a hypothetical clinical trial. Although this does not s
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
New paper "Causal inference in Clinical Research: A Primer" at Journal of Periodontal Research - pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42466618/ led by Nasir Bashir plus co-authors Moritz Kebschull and Gustavo Nascimento.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Causal Inference in Clinical Research: A Primer - PubMed
The study of causal relationships is central to scientific inquiry. Understanding what disease is, why it arises, and how it can be treated are a set of fundamentally causal questions. In this article...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
New paper: Blood Manganese and Risk of Squamous Cell Carcinomas of the Head and Neck published in JAMA Otolaryngology @jamaotolaryngology.com led by Benjamin Clay and Paul Carter, together with Nasir Bashir: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Blood Manganese and Risk of Squamous Cell Carcinomas of the Head and Neck
This cis-mendelian randomization study aims to determine if variations in genetically predicted blood manganese are associated with risk of squamous cell carcinomas of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hyp...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
New publication "Comparison of methods for assessing effects of risk factors on disease progression in Mendelian randomization under index event bias" at @ajhgnews.bsky.social: authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S.... Collaboration between Eli Lilly, Sequoia Genetics, and Cambridge University. Thread:
authors.elsevier.com
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
New preprint: "Multivariable Mendelian randomization with weak instruments: a comparison of Bayesian and frequentist methods" led by Andrew Grant: arxiv.org/abs/2606.26638. We present a method for multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR): MVMR-Pony. Thread follows:
arxiv.org
Multivariable Mendelian randomization with weak instruments: a comparison of Bayesian and frequentist methods
Weak instruments are a well known limitation for valid causal inference in Mendelian randomization studies. In the single exposure setting, weak instrument bias can be mitigated by selecting genetic i...
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Reposted by Stephen Burgess
American Society of Human Genetics (ASHG) @geneticssociety.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
In their recent @ajhgnews.bsky.social Review, @vkarhune.bsky.social, @stevesphd.bsky.social, & co discuss the key considerations and provide advice to produce a higher standard in planning, conducting, reviewing, and interpreting cis-Mendelian randomization studies: bit.ly/48DEz0H #ASHG
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Our review "Integrating genetic data with biological insight: A practical guide to cis-Mendelian randomization" is now published at @ajhgnews.bsky.social - led by @vkarhune.bsky.social and Benji Woolf with critical insight from Dipender Gill and Pallav Bhatnagar. Thread follows:
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
New pre-print on treatment effect heterogeneity led by Ash Patel: "Efficient semiparametric estimation of marginal treatment effects with genetic instrumental variables" available at arxiv.org/abs/2603.08871. Brief summary:
arxiv.org
Efficient semiparametric estimation of marginal treatment effects with genetic instrumental variables
Alcohol misuse is a key target of public health strategies aimed at reducing cardiovascular risk. The effect of excessive alcohol consumption on blood pressure may vary systematically with individuals...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Great to be involved in this publication: "Phenome-wide study on alcohol consumption provides genetic evidence for a causal association with multiple diseases and biomarkers" led by Nigussie Kassaw - doi.org/10.1016/j.nu....
doi.org
Redirecting
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
New preprint: "Revising the use of F-tests in weak instrument practice: point estimation and beyond" led by James Lane: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers..... The F>10 threshold for avoiding weak instrument bias has almost mythical status. But where does it come from? And does it make sense? In brief:
papers.ssrn.com
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
New pre-print: "Correcting for effect modification in the doubly-ranked non-linear Mendelian randomization method" led by Ang Zhou available at www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6.... Brief thread:
medrxiv.org
Correcting for effect modification in the doubly-ranked non-linear Mendelian randomization method
The doubly-ranked non-linear Mendelian randomization method can yield biased estimates when instrument strength varies across individuals due to gene-environment (GxE) interactions. We propose a simpl...
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Reposted by Stephen Burgess
American Society of Human Genetics (ASHG) @geneticssociety.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
LD patterns can make it difficult to select optimal instrumental variables for Mendelian randomization studies. @stevesphd.bsky.social & co of @hggadvances.bsky.social 's latest article evaluate the ability of four selection methods to increase instrument strength: bit.ly/4a0yXih #ASHG
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
New paper: "Extending the Use of Mendelian Randomisation With Non-Inherited Variants to Assess Socially Transmitted Parental Exposures Under Assortative Mating" published at Genetic Epidemiology and led by Benji Woolf: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/.... Brief thread:
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
New paper "Variant selection to maximize variance explained in cis-Mendelian randomization" led by @AngZhou3 and published at @HGGAdvances: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41548043/, with contribution from @vkarhune.bsky.social, Haodong, Janne, Ash, and Eric. Brief thread:
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Variant selection to maximize variance explained in cis-Mendelian randomization - PubMed
Optimal selection of instrumental variables (IVs) from a single gene region in cis-Mendelian randomization is challenging as variants are highly correlated due to linkage disequilibrium (LD). Using only the lead variant is convenient but may not achieve full statistical power if multiple signals exi …
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
New paper: "Alcohol consumption and risk of cancer: a Mendelian randomization analysis of four biobanks and consortium data" out at BMC Medicine: link.springer.com/article/10.1.... Lots of interesting findings! Brief thread:
link.springer.com
Alcohol consumption and risk of cancer: a Mendelian randomization analysis of four biobanks and consortium data - BMC Medicine
Background Alcohol consumption has been linked to cancer risk. Evidence is strongest for seven cancer types: breast, colorectum, oesophagus, liver, mouth, pharynx, and larynx. However, evidence suppor...
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Reposted by Stephen Burgess
Mike Inouye @mikeinouye.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
📣📣📣 Excited for our lab's latest preprint, led by Chief Ben-Eghan! www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1... tl;dr We identify protein vQTLs in multiple ancestries then use MVMR to show independent effects of mean & variance on disease, suggesting targeting protein variance could have therapeutic potential.
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
Happy to have co-authored a technical report published by @Policy_Exchange on University Technical Colleges. My role was limited to the statistical report, not the policy document - although I proof read the latter to ensure our analyses was correctly represented.
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
New pre-print: "Systematic comparison of colocalization methods using protein quantitative trait loci" led by @hwang_seongwon at www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1.... Which method does best? Find out!
biorxiv.org
Systematic comparison of colocalization methods using protein quantitative trait loci
Colocalization is frequently performed as a step to triage findings from genetic investigations linking molecular and disease data. However, the reliability and consistency of the various colocalizati...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
New pre-print "Mendelian randomization in a multi-ancestry world: reflections and practical advice" led by @amymariemason.bsky.social on - arxiv.org/abs/2510.17554
arxiv.org
Mendelian randomization in a multi-ancestry world: reflections and practical advice
Many Mendelian randomization (MR) papers have been conducted only in people of European ancestry, limiting transportability of results to the global population. Expanding MR to diverse ancestry groups...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
New pre-print: "PCSK9 and breast cancer survival: a Mendelian Randomization study" www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1... led by Janne Pott. Brief thread:
medrxiv.org
PCSK9 and breast cancer survival: a Mendelian Randomization study
Background: Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) is well known for its causal effects on the lipid metabolism. A recent study identified an association between rs562556 within PCSK9 a...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Full recording of the PSI webinar by myself and @jack_bowdenjack on instrumental variable methods is available online: psiweb.org/vod/item/efs...
psiweb.org
PSI
The community dedicated to leading and promoting the use of statistics within the healthcare industry for the benefit of patients.
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
A pre-print for Chris Wallace's colocPropTest method for proportional colocalization is available online: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1... @chr1sw.bsky.social
biorxiv.org
Variable information across SNPs in GWAS data can cause false rejections of colocalisation which can be resolved by proportional colocalisation tests
Fine-mapping is now a standard post-GWAS analysis, but it has been shown to be potentially inaccurate for large meta-analysis GWAS. We show how this can be caused by variable amounts of statistical in...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
New manuscript led by @BarWoolf "A cautionary note on the naive use of general-population biobanks to study pulmonary arterial hypertension" is now published at Euro Respiratory Journal @ERSpublications: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40967765/. Summary follows:
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
A cautionary note on the naive use of general-population biobanks to study pulmonary arterial hypertension, with a focus on Mendelian randomization - PubMed
A cautionary note on the naive use of general-population biobanks to study pulmonary arterial hypertension, with a focus on Mendelian randomization
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
New pre-print online: "Context-stratified Mendelian randomization: exploiting regional exposure variation to explore causal effect heterogeneity and non-linearity", arxiv.org/abs/2507.11088. We propose an alternative approach to assess non-linearity in Mendelian randomization.
arxiv.org
Context-stratified Mendelian randomization: exploiting regional exposure variation to explore causal effect heterogeneity and non-linearity
Mendelian randomization (MR) uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to make causal claims. Standard MR approaches typically report a single population-averaged estimate, limiting their abilit...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
New paper led by Nasir Bashir "Periodontitis and Systemic Disease: The Impact of Covariate Selection" published at @JDentRes: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/.... We investigate how disease associations vary with covariate adjustment.
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
New publication at @BMJMedicine "Epidemiology: a partnership of technical expertise and clinical insight" co-authored with Debbie Lawlor: bmjmedicine.bmj.com/content/4/1/.... This essay explores how to be an epidemiologist is in today's world. Comments welcome!
bmjmedicine.bmj.com
Epidemiology: a partnership of technical expertise and clinical insight
Like all medical fields, epidemiology is a discipline that can be practiced effectively only in partnership with others. While data analysis may seem like a solitary pursuit, epidemiological datasets ...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
New publication at European Journal of Epidemiology: "Search for common genetic variants to allow reliable Mendelian randomization investigations into ketone metabolism" led by Zhu Liduzi (Julie) Jiesisibieke. Link: link.springer.com/article/10.1.... Brief thread:
link.springer.com
Search for common genetic variants to allow reliable Mendelian randomization investigations into ketone metabolism - European Journal of Epidemiology
Ketogenic diets are popular among people aiming for weight management. Ketone supplementation has been linked to improved cognitive performance and increased risk of insulin resistance. We aim to iden...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
Krista and I are giving an introduction to Mendelian randomization in Brown 3 starting in a few moments - I will post my slides here after the session #eshg2025
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
New paper published at AJE Advances: "The role of estimation in Mendelian randomization: should Mendelian randomization investigations provide estimates?" led by @BarWoolf and myself: academic.oup.com/ajeadvances/.... Brief thread:
academic.oup.com
The role of estimation in Mendelian randomization: should Mendelian randomization investigations provide estimates?
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
New pre-print: "Mendelian Randomization with longitudinal exposure data: simulation study and real data application" led by Janne Pott is online: medrxiv.org/content/10.1.... Brief thread:
medrxiv.org
Mendelian Randomization with longitudinal exposure data: simulation study and real data application
Background and aim Mendelian Randomization (MR) is a widely used tool to estimate causal effects using genetic variants as instrumental variables. MR is limited to cross-sectional summary statistics o...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
Our paper "A Principled Framework for Mendelian Randomization in Oral Health Research" led by Nasir Bashir is now online at Journal of Periodontal Research: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/.... Brief thread follows!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
A Principled Framework for Mendelian Randomization in Oral Health Research
This methodological article provides a clear and accessible overview of Mendelian randomization for oral health researchers, emphasizing the core assumptions needed for credible causal inference. Foc....
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Reposted by Stephen Burgess
MRC Biostatistics Unit @mrc-bsu.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
The Mendelian Randomization course turns 10! 🥳 This March marks a significant milestone for the popular short course run by the BSU, as it enters its 10th year. Read more 👇 www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/news/mendeli... @stevesphd.bsky.social
Photo of BSU short course in action, with attendees sat at tables facing the projector screen and course leader.
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
Following the recent trial showing GLP1R agonists may reduce alcohol use disorder, happy to share that the Mendelian randomization evidence supports beneficial effects of GLP1R treatment on substance use disorders and AUDIT score + other outcomes: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....
jamanetwork.com
Once-Weekly Semaglutide in Adults With Alcohol Use Disorder
This randomized clinical trial assesses the effects of subcutaneous semaglutide on alcohol consumption in adults with alcohol use disorder.
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
New pre-print led by @hwang_seongwon: "Human genetics suggests differing causal pathways from HMGCR inhibition to coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes": www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1.... Brief thread follows:
medrxiv.org
Human genetics suggests differing causal pathways from HMGCR inhibition to coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes
Background: Statins lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and reduce the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, they also increase the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods: We c...
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
Registration is now open for our 2025 Genetics in Drug Development course: onlinesales.admin.cam.ac.uk/conferences-.... Details about the course are here: www.mendelianrandomization.com/index.php/co....
mendelianrandomization.com
Mendelian Randomization - Genetics in Drug Development - move to continuous enrolment
Book on Mendelian randomization authored by Stephen Burgess and Simon G Thompson and published by Chapman and Hall/CRC Press
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Stephen Burgess @stevesphd.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
Our work on immortal time bias "Illustrating the structures of bias from immortal time using directed acyclic graphs" led by Emma Guoyi Yang @yanggy_hku is out at International Journal of Epidemiology: doi.org/10.1093/ije/.... Brief thread:
doi.org
Illustrating the structures of bias from immortal time using directed acyclic graphs
AbstractBackground. Immortal time is a period of follow-up during which death or the study outcome cannot occur by design. Bias from immortal time has been
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