Sign in

Stacie Pettyjohn

@spettyjohn.bsky.social
3.1K followers 376 following 93 posts

Director of the defense program and senior fellow CNAS

PostsRepliesMedia
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 18h
@philipsheers.bsky.social & I write in @foreignpolicy.com about @cnas.bsky.social wargames exploring the next war w/a rearmed Iran. The results were troubling. Better warning & drone defenses help, but vulnerable bases raise questions about US strategy & posture. foreignpolicy.com/2026/10/06/i...
foreignpolicy.com
How to Avoid Disaster in the Next Iran War
Recent war games highlight how Washington can improve its air defenses so the next round of fighting isn’t worse.
010
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
A body blow: Mark Cancian, Mike Eisenstadt, @ryanevans.bsky.social, & me on how the war with Iran is draining the stockpiles and readiness the U.S. military needs elsewhere. New @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast warontherocks.com/a-body-blow-...
warontherocks.com
A Body Blow? The War on Iran and U.S. Military Readiness
The war against Iran is putting new strains on U.S. military readiness by consuming munitions and missile defense interceptors, as well as through
0146
Reposted by Stacie Pettyjohn
Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Coming up at 4pm on BBC Radio 4 and <transatlantic voice> wherever you get your podcasts, this week's Rethink on the future of warfare and whether Britain is ready for it. With @florencegaub.bsky.social Anthony King, @spettyjohn.bsky.social and @mtsavill.bsky.social www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...
bbc.co.uk
BBC Sounds - Rethink, Rethink... warfare
Is the UK ready for the challenges of modern war?
084
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
I enjoyed talking with Dave Davies on @nprfreshair.bsky.social about the U.S. war with Iran: missile shortfalls, the vulnerability of Gulf bases to Iran's cheap drones and missiles, the industrial base, & what it all means for deterrence in Asia. www.npr.org/2026/08/19/n...
npr.org
Why does the U.S. military seem stymied in the war with Iran?
Defense analyst Stacie Pettyjohn says while the U.S. military is facing long-range missile shortages, prolonged deployments and vacated regional bases, Iran is building cheaper weapons quickly.
151
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
I enjoyed speaking with @michelmartinnpr.bsky.social on @npr.org's Morning Edition about the impact that the Iran war is having on US stockpiles of precision guided missiles. npr.org/2026/08/05/n...
npr.org
Expert discusses dwindling U.S. munitions reserve and the effect on the Iran war
NPR's Michel Martin speaks with Center for a New American Security senior fellow Stacie Pettyjohn about the shortage of U.S. long-range precision missiles in the wake of the war against Iran.
051
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
I joined @planetmoney.bsky.social's The Indicator podcast to discuss why the U.S. is struggling to produce the cheap drones that are reshaping modern warfare. Listen here: www.npr.org/2026/07/06/n...
npr.org
Why the US is losing the drone war : The Indicator from Planet Money
The US defense industry is struggling to keep up with the revolution in cheap drones vs. expensive reusable military equipment. Today on the show, we talk with Stacie Pettyjohn, the director of the De...
020
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
To learn about all the steps needed to defeat drones and the technologies required, check out @mollykcam.bsky.social & my @cnas.bsky.social report, Countering the Swarm. www.cnas.org/publications...
cnas.org
Countering the Swarm
The counter-drone mission entails much more than simply air defense and cannot be relegated to traditional, isolated air defense formations.
000
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
This @economist.com piece gets it right: early detection is one of the hardest and most critical steps in countering small drones. www.economist.com/science-and-...
economist.com
How to bring down cheap, low-flying drones
Acoustics and innovative radar could help
140
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Really enjoyed joining Ben Jebb & Mark Montgomery on the Irregular Warfare Podcast to talk Hellscape for Taiwan, @mollykcam.bsky.social & my @cnas.bsky.social report. irregularwarfare.org/podcasts/hel...
irregularwarfare.org
Hellscape Taiwan: Drones, Deterrence, and the Future of Asymmetric Defense
This week’s episode of the Irregular Warfare Podcast examines how Taiwan could deter—or potentially defeat—a Chinese invasion by transforming the Taiwan Strait into an “unmanned hellscape.” Anchored i...
030
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
You can find Phil's "Eyes in the Sky" report here: www.cnas.org/publications...
cnas.org
Eyes in the Sky
Airborne sensing and air battle management are distinct but intertwined tasks.
000
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
How is airborne battle management shaping the Iran war, and what happens when the E-3s age out? Phil Sheers, Q Hinote, Kari Bingen, and I tackled both in our @cnas.bsky.social panel. Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgkX...
youtube.com
Commanding the Air: the Future of Airborne Battle Management
YouTube video by Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
100
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Moscow is helping Iran to target U.S. forces in the Middle East & reconstituting its drone stockpiles. In @lawfaremedia.org wfare, my @cnas.bsky.social colleague Delaney Soliday documents Russian support & why sanctions alone will not stop it. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-...
lawfaremedia.org
The Russia-Iran Partnership
Why Moscow is helping Iran fight the United States and Israel.
010
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
You can find our full @cnas.bsky.social report Countering the Swarm here: www.cnas.org/publications...
cnas.org
Countering the Swarm
The counter-drone mission entails much more than simply air defense and cannot be relegated to traditional, isolated air defense formations.
040
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
The cost disparity between Iran's cheap drones & the U.S. interceptors is breaking the bank. We need more cheap defenses--rockets, guns, interceptor drones — & at scale. Happy to have my report w/@mollykcam.bsky.social informing @nytimes.com' sharp breakdown www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
How Iran’s Cheap, Low-Tech Drones Have Cost the U.S.
252
Reposted by Stacie Pettyjohn
Dr. Jonathan Schroden @jjschroden.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Good explainer article on what the MEUs are and what they can (and probably cannot) do today from @taskandpurpose.com Featuring quotes by @spettyjohn.bsky.social and me👇 taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics...
taskandpurpose.com
Here's what Marine Expeditionary Units are designed to do
The units are embarked on ships and include air and ground combat elements along with logistics and command structures.
1285
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
What is new—and what makes this moment more dangerous—is treating long-standing allies as transactional partners. Expect this to get worse, not better. I did extensive research on this issue at RAND in happier times. www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
rand.org
Political Challenges to the U.S. Overseas Military Presence
The U.S. military depends on access to overseas bases to project power around the world. Political challenges to access have been common, but the threat has often been overstated.
041
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Spain, Italy, France restricting base access and overflight is a reminder: these permissions are always political, always contingent on the specific situation. That's especially true when you treat partners transactionally, which is the Trump admin's approach. breakingdefense.com/2026/03/wash...?
breakingdefense.com
Washington questions NATO alliance, as Spain fences off airspace - Breaking Defense
"When we ask for additional assistance or simple access… we get questions or roadblocks or hesitation," US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said today when asked about US support to NATO's collective de...
160
Reposted by Stacie Pettyjohn
Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
Hellscape #Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age, by @spettyjohn.bsky.social & @mollykcam.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2026/03/hell... via @warontherocks.bsky.social #China
warontherocks.com
Hellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age
It is 2029. General Secretary Xi Jinping has given the order for the People’s Liberation Army to forcibly take Taiwan. Hundreds of Chinese warships begin
073
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
You can read the @warontherocks.bsky.social article @mollykcam.bsky.social & I wrote above or the full @cnas.bsky.social report here: www.cnas.org/publications...
cnas.org
Hellscape for Taiwan
Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.
020
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
If the PLA invades, Taiwan could stop them at the shore w/UUVs, drone boats, swarms, missiles, & mines layered into a 4 ring gauntlet from the strait to the beach. Taiwan can create this Hellscape. We explain how. warontherocks.com/2026/03/hellscape-taiwan-a-porcupine-defense-in-the-drone-age/
warontherocks.com
Hellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age
It is 2029. General Secretary Xi Jinping has given the order for the People’s Liberation Army to forcibly take Taiwan. Hundreds of Chinese warships begin
174
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Important @economist.com insight on the dismal options for ending the Iran war: America can’t reopen Hormuz, Iran can’t stop the airstrikes, & every escalation option is bad, explaining why there’s no clear path to a durable political solution. economist.com/briefing/202...
economist.com
There is plenty of scope for the Iran war to intensify
America and Israel conduct air strikes against Iran while the regime blocks the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy supplies and pushing Gulf allies toward alignment.
030
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Cheap drones are exhausting expensive air defenses — that cost asymmetry is the whole problem. I spoke with @marketplace.org about Iran's Shahed threat, why it demands affordable defenses, & the combat debut of America's own answer: the LUCAS drone. www.marketplace.org/episode/2026...
marketplace.org
How low-cost drones are used in modern military strikes
Stacie Pettyjohn at the Center for a New American Security says Iran's Shahed-136 drones are mainly composed of off-the-shelf consumer tech, which makes them affordable to make at scale.
040
Reposted by Stacie Pettyjohn
Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
My latest on the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz in @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-...
foreignaffairs.com
The Hormuz Minefield
In the strait, Iran holds the advantage—and America has no good options.
06739
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Three years of @cnas.bsky.social research on US munitions procurement & the defense industrial base. 📄 Precision and Posture (2022) www.cnas.org/publications... 📄 Production Is Deterrence (2023) www.cnas.org/publications... 📄 From Production Lines to Front Lines (2025) www.cnas.org/publications...
cnas.org
Precision and Posture: Defense Spending Trends and the FY23 Budget Request
Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.
040
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Air defenses tell a similar story. DoD has consistently bought interceptors, but our data shows purchases have focused on expensive ballistic missile defense systems in relatively small quantities, neglecting air, cruise missile, and drone defenses.
160
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Meanwhile antiship stockpiles were near zero for years before FY17. Now we're suddenly deploying missiles against Iranian ships and minelayers, drawing down stockpiles that were never large to begin with.
121
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
The numbers: Navy bought ZERO new TLAMs in FY19, FY24, and FY25. Only 322 Tomahawks procured across all services in the past 5 years. Procurement has been wildly volatile — swinging from hundreds one year to nothing the next — preventing industry from maintaining production lines.
131
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
From the @financialtimes.com: The US burned through "years" of Tomahawk missiles in days of the Iran war. @cnas.bsky.social has analyzed the munitions problem repeatedly but DoD has failed to fix it. Now we're in a hole that can't be quickly filled. 🧵 www.ft.com/content/1471...
ft.com
US has burned through ‘years’ of munitions since start of Iran war
Rapid depletion of stockpile including Tomahawk missiles raises pressure on Trump over cost of conflict
163
Reposted by Stacie Pettyjohn
Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 11/03/2026
This is a very good approach. (And I say approach, rather than outcome, because the headline goes a bit far. But still: well done Ukraine!!) #drone www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/w...
nytimes.com
Ukraine Reaches a Milestone: Making ‘China-Free’ Drones
530059
Reposted by Stacie Pettyjohn
Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Pleased to speak with @economist.com for this excellent discussion of Iran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz www.economist.com/middle-east-...
economist.com
Can America clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iran’s drones and mines?
Escorting convoys of oil tanker with warships may give Iran juicy American targets
03513
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
For more on how the cat-and-mouse game between Russian drones and Ukrainian defenses has evolved, check out this piece by Jack Watling www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
rusi.org
Octopus Adds an Additional Layer to Ukraine’s Air Defences
The value of the UK-Ukrainian drone interceptor is not in the characteristics of the munition, but in the process that brought it into being.
010
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
But no single technology is enough to defeat even cheap drones like the Shahed. As Molly Campbell and I argue in our @cnas.bsky.social report, you need a layered defense system that adversaries can't easily route around. Full report www.cnas.org/publications...
cnas.org
Countering the Swarm
The counter-drone mission entails much more than simply air defense and cannot be relegated to traditional, isolated air defense formations.
100
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
The US Army is rushing Ukrainian cheap drone interceptors to the Middle East, which is a hugely welcome development. These are cost-effective, battlefield-tested solutions for defeating Shaheds & should proliferate quickly. www.wsj.com/world/u-s-ar...
wsj.com
U.S. Army Sends Ukraine-Tested Drones to Hit Iran’s Drones
Merops drones, from a company owned by Eric Schmidt, are favored by Kyiv’s troops against Russian Shahed attacks.
120
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Check out this link for other essays from this series including by Susanna Blume, Veronica Daigle & Grace Newsom, & Frank Kendall. www.cnas.org/the-new-amer...
cnas.org
The New American Defense Industrial Base
The U.S. defense industrial base has seen significant change over the past decade. CNAS will publish a series of essays written by a diverse set of experts
021
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
U.S. defense indsutry is built for short, sharp wars not protracted ones. New from Jenny McArdle in the @cnas.bsky.social New American DIB series: allied manufacturing strength can close the gaps domestic industry can't fill fast enough. cnas.org/publications/commentary/deterrence-at-scale
cnas.org
Deterrence at Scale
Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.
132
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
The U.S. is winning against Iran, but burning through the exact munitions it would need most against China. New @cnas.bsky.social analysis from @philipsheers.bsky.social & I on the hidden costs of Operation Epic Fury & what comes next. cnas.org/publications/commentary/insights-sustaining-war-in-iran
cnas.org
CNAS Insights | Can the United States Sustain Its War Against Iran?
Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.
321
Reposted by Stacie Pettyjohn
Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Back to doing what I do best: pointing at things on maps. (It's a wargamer thing). I walked through Iran's retaliatory strikes, what it has left in the arsenal, and what the “big wave” of strikes Trump promised might mean with Bloomberg TV. www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...
bloomberg.com
Watch Iran Retaliates Following US-Israel Strikes - Bloomberg
Bloomberg Economics Defense Lead Becca Wasser discusses Iran's retaliation to US-Israeli strikes over the weekend, and what potential moves lie ahead from the Trump administration. She joins Kailey Le...
071
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
New @cnas.bsky.social report: In "Eyes in the Sky," @philipsheers.bsky.social explains why airborne battle management aircraft aren't just vital in the Middle East—they're essential for DoD's top priorities, from a war with China to defending the homeland. www.cnas.org/publications...
cnas.org
Eyes in the Sky
Airborne sensing and air battle management are distinct but intertwined tasks.
020
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
@mollykcam.bsky.social & my new report: "Hellscape for Taiwan" We propose a layered drone defense—from 80 km out to the beaches—that could stop an invasion at the water's edge. 4 layers. Cross-domain fires. A theory of victory Taiwan can own. www.cnas.org/publications...
cnas.org
Hellscape for Taiwan
Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.
192
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
I noted that "coordination has been lacking" increasing the risk of "cowboy behavior."
020
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
New from @breakingdefense.com by Michael Marrow & Val Insinna. The El Paso shootdown highlights the hard work ahead to safely implement new counter-drone authorities for DoD, DHS, & local agencies. breakingdefense.com/2026/02/as-d...
breakingdefense.com
As Dems push for briefing on El Paso incident, experts warn it could be the ‘tip of the iceberg’ - Breaking Defense
“I think coordination has been lacking, and you're seeing a lot more sort of cowboy behavior, which could be problematic,” Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and director of the defense program at the ...
211
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
The Pentagon would be wise to take note of Russia's approach as it pursues its own AI-enabled C2 — start with what works at the edge, not what looks good on a briefing slide (with lots of lightning bolts and lines). See CRS report for more on JADC2 www.everycrsreport.com/files/2022-0...
110
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
And don't miss Kateryna Bondar's CSIS report on how Russia has abandoned it monolithic AI-enabled C2 ambitions in favor of tactical systems that solve immediate battlefield problems. www.csis.org/analysis/how...
csis.org
How Russia Is Reshaping Command and Control for AI-Enabled Warfare
Kateryna Bondar examines how Russia conceptualizes, builds, and adapts its command and control (C2) architecture under wartime pressures, in the first installment of a series on Russia’s use of AI in ...
100
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Also highly recommend @massdara.bsky.social's Foreign Affairs article on how Russia has regrouped — building a learning ecosystem that turns tactical adaptations into long-term institutional reforms. foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-russia-recovered
foreignaffairs.com
How Russia Recovered
What the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.
100
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Key point: the tradeoff between decentralized innovation (Ukraine's strength) versus the ability to rapidly scale adaptations into fielded systems (Russia's advantage). I explored this dynamic early in the war in my @cnas.bsky.social report on drone warfare:
cnas.org
Evolution Not Revolution
Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.
100
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Excellent episode of the Russian Roulette podcast on Ukrainian and Russian wartime adaptations w/@maxbergmann.bsky.social, @msnegovaya.bsky.social. @massdara.bsky.social, and Kateryna Bondar 🎧 csis.org/podcasts/russian-roulette/russian-and-ukrainian-battlefield-adaptations-dara-massicot-and-kateryna
csis.org
Russian and Ukrainian Battlefield Adaptations with Dara Massicot and Kateryna Bondar | Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts
Max and Maria had a livestreamed conversation in the CSIS Brack Studio with Dara Massicot and Kateryna Bondar to discuss Russian and Ukrainian battlefield adaptations and technological innovations.
111
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
ICYMI: The Pentagon released its defense strategy last Friday. Our @cnas.bsky.social panel—@beccawasser.bsky.social, Mara Karlin, Dustin Walker & me—broke down the document and graded it. The results weren't pretty. Watch our analysis here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3wr...
youtube.com
U.S. Defense at an Inflection Point: The 2026 National Defense Strategy
YouTube video by Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
031
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
This afternoon at 2 pm I am breaking down the Trump administration's defense strategy on a @cnas.bsky.social pop up virtual panel with Dr. Mara Karlin, Dustin Walker, & @beccawasser.bsky.social www.cnas.org/events/u-s-d...
cnas.org
U.S. Defense at an Inflection Point: The 2026 National Defense Strategy
The 2026 National Defense Strategy arrives at a critical juncture and marks an unprecedented shift in U.S. As the Department of Defense translates…
020
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
The irony is that this approach could hurt the very warfighters it aims to help. If investors believe defense companies face nationalization risk, these firms will struggle to raise capital, which is the opposite of what we need to rebuild industrial capacity.
000
Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
More concerning: this EO could fundamentally transform U.S. defense companies from private businesses into quasi-public utilities dependent on taxpayer subsidies.
110