iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 2h

Gonna be conservative and say under. Like 4.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 2h

This is roughly my expectation but there's still a month

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 3h

Never what your majesty?? NEVER WHAT???

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 3h

Yeah i think I had that for like 2 weeks in august, kinda sucked

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 3h

Texas: felt cute, might secede California: *takes drag of cigarette* i think about freedom every day

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 12h

Here in Texas i have seen a flood of ads but they're almost exclusively Paxton vs Talarico, with Abbott vs Hinojosa popping in only occasionally. Kinda wonder if all that attention on the senate race has helped Hinojosa avoid more heat and build a healthier profile.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 12h

True. Dems in Texas see there's a real shot and are organizing to produce a seismic event. Dems in New York already control the state and hate Trump so their enthusiasm has less material upside.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 12h

I suppose the caveat here is that the same dynamic could also happen in places like Texas or Kansas (Rs have a talafreak out and show up last second to save Paxton and Abbott), but I'm committed to not believing that lol (it would also have to swamp D enthusiasm and Indy anger).

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 12h

We'll find out soon enough but I do think "regional circumstances/candidate quality differences" will explain most of these discrepancies. People in New York have more specific reasons to be mad at Ds; people in Texas and Ohio are much more protest-voting.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 12h

If Cory Booker is the 2028 candidate it is because every other viable Dem has died in a maga terrorist bombing (Rahm Emanuel is still alive in this situation)

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 13h

"Cory Booker - who is being floated as a 2028 contender" let me stop you right there

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jae (hallowed) @fubarchitect.com · 22h

extremely funny that the cartoon network clown men correctly identified identity as the sole remaining problem in a fully automated world

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 14h

"horny gender-swapped harry potter fanfiction is for chuds now bc we used the word foid" does speak to something and it's the rhetorical importance of framing to fit an audience

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 14h

Props manager: hey did you finish that arcane object Props intern: sure thing boss nice and profane just like you asked Props manager: I SAID ARCANE

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 14h

Oh actually yeah you're right I was being too generous in my reading probably

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 15h

The shocking detail here is that Matt actually thinks the Cornell case is horrifying and not just Lying Whores Besmirching Men's Good Name

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 15h

So close now. So very close. bsky.app/profile/shim...

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 15h

Obviously don't want the plague but "Trump's 2nd term is sunk by a real lab leaked disease that began in Russia" would be incredible way to close the circle on this era

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 15h

As well as all the court aides. And the whole dinner can't cost more than $1,000. And the event is transcribed for public transparency.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 16h

Need a Dem admin to Thanos snap the lot of them

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 16h

Americans aren't generally huge fans of political dynasties, so senators treating their office like it's a personal asset they can bequeath to family members is prob not gonna be received well. Just bc Graham was popular in SC doesn't mean anyone cares about his sister.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 16h

I think it's just generally hard to dislodge a senator the longer they hold a seat. Americans kinda treat them like tourists attractions and get used to a "familiar face" representing the state. Senators who are esp good at fundraising also tend to endure, which is why Cornyn's loss is so funny.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 19h

*so important*: if you’re voting by mail, assume the USPS will delay because it’s its policy. You can: —put it in drop box —go to counter to watch them postmark in front of you —if you’re dropping it in a mailbox, do it VERY EARLY.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 17h

"Conservatives are 10-20 years behind the culture" stays winning

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 17h

Same with the Lutnick/Peters story about "seizing voting machines", like sure, good to stay on top of potential shenanigans but these people can't just grab machines and change their outcomes

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 19h

the worst misogynists imaginable are terrified of MeToo getting a comeback tour and trying to snuff out any budding flames

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 22h

Your Talarico+5 materializes more and more each day

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 22h

Vance is awful but I wouldn't be super worried about him in the (almost unthinkable) case of Trump being removed. He's a toady riding other people's coattails to power. In a world where enough Rs join Ds to impeach, Vance is the lamest of ducks.

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Dr. Samantha Hancox-Li @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com · 23h

rather, they are in some deep sense priests of the american civic religion, responsible for performing the rituals of that civic religion. and one of the most fundamental promises of america is that it is a land of equality for all. a land of equal freedom, equal respect, equal citizenship.

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Dr. Samantha Hancox-Li @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com · 23h

but even setting all the rest of it aside, i think bouie is right to focus on the mere act of slurring trans people. the role of public servants--especially but not restricted to high public servants, entrusted with the highest and most powerful offices--is that they are not just bureaucrats.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 22h

Harry Potter making a cultural resurgence as a projection for reactionaries' socio-sexual neuroses. I demand to be let off this ride.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 23h

As much as Trump needs to be impeached and prosecuted, I imagine Dems would start smaller by trying to pick away at his cabinet officials and deprive him of a functional admin so maybe they can notch some wins against corruption in preparation for 2028. But we'll see!

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 23h

One rationale for expanding the court to a ridiculous number of justices is just to minimize their opportunity to fraternize with one another.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

If Elliot-Morris' suspicion about partisan differences in "bias toward longer/shorter surveys" is right, then our D+10 GCB could actually range from D+7 to D+13. Obviously I have hitched my horse to the latter so fingers crossed.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Exactly. Like that was all extremely close but it still worked out for us. And Trump is even more unpopular now. Don't see a lot of reason to assume a huge polling miss in Rs' favor, given how the last two midterms have gone.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Exactly. We shouldn't be terribly surprised by a decent polling miss during a once-in-a-century pandemic that disrupted most social activity! We're not in that situation anymore so there's no necessary reason to anchor around it.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I feel like people are being unreasonable about 2020. Dems underperformed the expectation, sure, but within the margin of error and also Trump WAS an incumbent at a time when covid was boosting most other incumbents. Biden was not the strongest candidate but he still won 8M more votes!

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

machine ghosts is cool but "the bytegeist" was right there

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I mean he can't even fill a high school auditorium so

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

We're gonna lose bigly aren't we folks? Nobody has seen anything like it. Grown men came up to me with tears in their eyes, "sir nobody has lost a midterm like this in 30 years". Make America Great Again. That's how you do it.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Love seeing two creatures who cannot conceive of the other's existence

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

People love to do a "i went to heaven" story but nobody ever thinks to throw in a curveball for believability. "Yeah Jesus agreed with me that all the gays are gonna burn but - and stick with me here - he was shaped like a mongoose and spoke like Crocodile Dundee?? Quirky guy, the Lord".

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Local news ran a piece about a rich guy in the Dallas area who always does elaborate holiday displays at his house and this year he did a "don't elect talafreako" theme for Halloween and now i need talarico to win by 5 just to mess up that guy specifically.

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Which is the only move they have other than "low T Talarico" which is just way too online and childish. Doesn't resonate when gas is $4 a gallon lol

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Shimmersoft @shimmersoft.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Lol unfortunately I've seen them on my local news way more than I'd like (along with a lot of Talarico's ads). But yeah they are juiceless. Paxton is too corrupt to run on his record but imo they're overindexing on the effectiveness of the "Kamala is for they/them" ad from 2024.

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the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) @merovingians.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

is that Good for the party suffering a collapse with Latino voters

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