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Shel Winkley

@shelwinkleywx.bsky.social
2K followers 1.5K following 939 posts

@climatecentral.org | Former @kbtx.com Chief Meteorologist | AMS CBM #780 | TAMU Class of 2007 | 🔴 🌎 Climate Change is Real.

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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 19h
Tut tut, Brazos Valley. Scattered round of rain & non-severe storms expected this afternoon ▶️ early evening. Some of us could pick up 1"+ today. Some of us get a quick bit of rain, lightning, & thunder. Some of us see dark clouds in the distance & that's it #bcstx #txwx
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Before we move on to the next thing... ...let's talk about why #Isaias was just...a little bit different ⤵️
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Reposted by Shel Winkley
Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Warmer waters tend to cause stronger hurricanes. I detail a press release from Climate Central showing the details for Hurricane #Isaias.
yaleclimateconnections.org
How climate change worsened Hurricane Isaias » Yale Climate Connections
Climate Central says climate-warmed Gulf waters made Isaias’s winds 7 mph stronger than they otherwise would have been. This would result in over a doubling of the hurricane’s damages, because of the ...
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for the a 3 foot or greater storm surge at 📍Gulf Shores, AL @climatecentral.org's FloodVision recently mapped the area to show what this coastal flooding could look like. 📍Here's what that could look like for E Beach Blvd ⤵️
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Warmer oceans Contribute to an increased fraction of tropical cyclones that strengthen quickly...aka rapid intensification. From 1980 to 2025, 190 Atlantic tropical cyclones rapidly intensified, and nearly one-quarter of these storms rapidly intensified at extreme rates.
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
#Isaias has officially reached hurricane status
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
#Isaias has been slogging through West Gulf waters 3.5-4.5°F above average for early October. @climatecentral.org's #ClimateShiftIndex shows this warmth would be almost impossible without climate change. Its path to hurricane status stays over warmer waters, made more likely by the same.
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Reposted by Shel Winkley
Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Some important differences between the conventional physics-based models (European and American ensembles are 1st and 2nd panels) and the AI models (Google Deepmind operational and experimental ensembles are 3rd and 4th panels). The differences in both track and intensity are obvious. #Isaias
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Tropical Depression #NINE has formed & on track to become Hurricane #Isaias in coming days 1st forecast from the National Hurricane Center has this as a ~100mph Category 2 hurricane ahead of landfall, with some slight weakening before moving inland (although as a wide storm w/ far reaching impacts)
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
As of Monday AM, @noaa.gov's National Hurricane Center has a HIGH 70% chance for tropical development in the South/Central Gulf of Mexico this week Tropical depression is expected by middle-to-end of the week. After drifting east fora few days, it will turn north w/ potential impacts by weekend
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Eyes on the Gulf of Mexico this week. National Hurricane Center has upped the odds of development to a MEDIUM chance. This potential system will be feeding off RECORD warmth made *up to* 800x more likely to be this unusually warm in October by human-caused climate change.
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Tuesday... 🎧🍎 👀 @tdiliberto.bsky.social @climatecentral.org
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Sky's falling over Kyle Field this afternoon
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
2:55pm Radar: Cluster of cloud-to-cloud lightning strikes popping 11 to 16mi east of Kyle Field over the last 10min. Low concern for GameDay activities at this moment, but worth keeping an eye on apps w/ lightning notifications
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
2:25pm Radar: Healthy splash of rain (~7mi from Kyle Field) on the Southeast side of College Station, headed northwest. No lightning concerns at the moment. Could bring wind 15-20mph as it nears/passes by #bcstx #Aggieland
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Latest iteration for what the radar could look like over #Aggieland this afternoon & evening. 1) Something to keep in mind for tailgates & through the first quarter or two of tonight's @aggiesfootball.bsky.social v Arkansas 2) Lightning potential not ruled out (mainly 5pm - 9pm)
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Heat Advisories & Excessive Heat Warnings cover most of California Saturday. 🌡️Highs in the 90s-low 100s running 15°-20° ABOVE average -- some of the top 5 hottest on record for Oct. 3rd. 🔴37.6K folks experiencing unusual October heat made at least 2x more likely by heat trapping pollution #cawx
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Grab the ponchos, Ags. Morning data gives gameday a healthy chance for rain (with a potential lightning concern) mid-afternoon through early evening. Messy atmosphere out there. Doesn't mean all of tailgating & @aggiesfootball.bsky.social v Arkansas is a wash -- but we'll need to monitor #txwx
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Parched grounds drink slowly. Our warming atmosphere pours the pint faster. Rain is a good thing. Just not when it falls all at once.
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Trying to time out your day in the Brazos Valley? First significant rain since mid-July is on deck this afternoon. Scattered showers/quick downpours possible as early as 11am - 1pm. Widespread rain, storm, & localized flood concerns start mid-afternoon #bcstx #txwx
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
What makes this El Niño one for the record books? What's hype? What's real? What do we know about the role of climate change? @chasecain.bsky.social hops into the warm waters ⤵️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLUU...
youtube.com
What Happens When Super El Niño Hits California?
YouTube video by Chase Cain
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
These forecast rainfall totals are FAR FROM PERFECT -- but model data has been suggesting the potential for a corridor of flooding rainfall along or near I-35 ⏰Thursday-Friday, lingering Saturday Weather Prediction Center has 3 out of 4 risk for EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (flood threat) in place #txwx
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
What'cha doing around 1pm EDT? Join @climatecentral.org & @coveringclimatenow.org as we chat through the latest on this big ol' El Niño • What is El Niño doing? • More importantly, what are the impacts of climate change & NOT just El Niño • How can you tell these stories through winter?
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
With three months left to go, the folks at @berkeleyearth.org are all but certain that 2026 will land as the all-time HOTTEST year on record for this blue marble we call Earth. Currently, the list stands as: #1: 2024 #2: 2023 #3: 2025 #4: 2016 #5: 2020
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Maddening, intentional doubt-inducing article from @theatlantic.com here: • heavy leaned on background & quotes a common mis-information spreader • tries to shift guilt to everyday people living as they live their lives www.theatlantic.com/science/2026...
theatlantic.com
An Existential Threat to the Oil Industry
Can the energy giants be held responsible for extreme weather?
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Call it a nor'easter...call it a coastal storm... whatever we call it, it will impact the Northeast through the weekend. Dangerous surf Coastal flooding Breaking waves 15ft+ 3" - 5" of rain Storm like this in late September? Not totally unusual. The water this storm is developing over, however...
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
#Polo was a tropical storm yesterday. Today it is a Cat 5 hurricane. 110 mph gained in just 24 hours. Almost doubling the threshold of Extreme Rapid Intensification. Fueling it: ocean warmth ~3-3.5°F above average, made up to 200x more likely by heat-trapping pollution.
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
#Polo is forecast to rapidly intensify over the next day, jumping from TS to Cat 3, gaining ~45mph between today and tomorrow, per NHC. This fast boost of intensity happening over unusually warm Pacific waters, ~3°F above normal... ...made at least 200x more likely by heat-trapping pollution.
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Tropical Depression Six formed in the open waters of the Atlantic 500+ mi SW of the Azores. As it moves away from wind shear, NHC forecasts to become Tropical Storm Fay. Waters it is meandering over? ~2.5F ABOVE average for mid/late September -- made 200-300x more likely by heat trapping pollution.
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
A sweaty September Saturday isn't unusual in Aggieland. Today's game temps are running ~5-7° above average. And early-season heat like this has become more common & lasting longer into the schedule. Add full sunlight and 100K fans packed into the stadium, and that small shift makes gameday harder
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
A sunny, toasty one on deck for @aggiesfootball.bsky.social v @ukfootball.bsky.social today at Kyle Field. 1st: Temp - 94 | Feels like (in the shade): 99 2nd: Temp- 95 | Feels like: 99 3rd: Temp - 96 | Feels like: 100 4th: Temp - 95 | Feels like: 98 Hydrate. Take breaks from the sun. Gig em.
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Just in from @zacklabe.com: August 2026 was the WARMEST on record globally. - 2nd Warmest for Global land temperatures - All-time warmest for August when it came to global ocean heat
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The Gulf of Mexico is running at or near record heat levels for mid-September. North/Central sea surface temps are running up to 3.5°F above average for this time of year. More simply: extraordinary heat that would be VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE w/out the influence of climate change
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Electric power produces one-quarter of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. About 97% of U.S. emissions from this sector are made up of CO2 from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas to produce electricity. www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt...
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
The Trump administration plans to announce Monday that the United States will no longer limit the planet-warming pollution that power plants pump into the air while burning coal and gas, according to two people familiar with the proposal. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/13/c...
nytimes.com
E.P.A. Will Erase Limits on Climate Pollution From Power Plants (Gift Article)
Generation of electricity is the second largest source of carbon dioxide and other planet-warming gases in the United States.
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Texas is baking today. But the grid can handle it. ERCOT dashboard: 57.8% of power demand is being met by solar and wind right now. That means less than half of today's demand relies on sources that create heat-trapping emissions. #txwx
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
As we head into 2nd half, intense heat + humid for TAMU vs Arizona St. Even for early/mid September, this heat is well above what is typical. Both the temperature and humid heat would rare, if not impossible, at this time of the year w/out a fingerprint of human-caused warming
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
REMINDER: This ain't the kind of heat even early-season football expects here in #Aggieland. This near record September heat would be RARE w/out climate change. The dangerous humid heat for the game? Would not occur to this level w/o the influence of heat trapping pollution @climatecentral.org
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
HEADS UP, AGGIES! Forecast for HEAT INDEX (what it will feel like *in the shade*) for tomorrow's game at Kyle Field vs Arizona State. Direct sunlight, crammed in with 100k of your closest friends -- it could feel 10°+ hotter than what you see here. Hydrate. Rest. Hydrate.
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
100 days of record ocean heat. This ain't a marine heat wave. It's a marine heat era. (data/visuals: @zacklabe.com + @climatecentral.org)
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Tut tut! @maxwx.bsky.social #bcstx #txwx
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Reposted by Shel Winkley
Justin Gerdes @justingerdes.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
"As of the end of August, the total UK solar generation in 2026 stood at 17TWh – 13% higher than the same point in 2025." www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-... via @carbonbrief.org's @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org and Ho Woo Nam 🔌💡
carbonbrief.org
Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026 - Carbon Brief
Solar power generation in the UK reached a new record over the summer of 2026, as temperatures across the nation soared, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
What really is "football weather" anymore? Let's talk about the first weekend of #CFB ⤵️
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
5:29pm Radar: Small shower developing right on top of #bcstx / #Aggieland / Kyle Field. Nothing more than that -- but eyes on this little one...
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Tulsa sitting at the century mark as of the 5pm hour. 12° above average for a September 5th. This kind of unusual, early-football season heat is now at least 2x more likely to occur at the start of September.
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
5pm here at Kyle Field: Mid-90s...feels like 106° (in the shade). Not a lick of a breeze out there. Small storm spitting lightning ~11-13mi northeast of Kyle has collapsed. No immediate lightning concern at this time. Storms out east also raining themselves out (currently)
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
2pm: Bubbly downpours surrounding #Aggieland this afternoon. Chance to catch a soaking through the next few hours of tailgating
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
1pm Radar: Already putting moisture to work with scattered showers bubbling up early this afternoon across the Brazos Valley. Weather Prediction Center puts #bcstx / #Aggieland on the west edge of a heavy rain risk. Rainfall rates could fall as fast as 3"-5"/hr
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Not perfect -- but here's a view of what radar *could* look like by late afternoon & early evening over the Brazos Valley / #Aggieland. Scattered, passing downpours possible pre-game through 1st qtr of #TAMU v. MO St. Low (but not zero) lightning concern through 6:30-7pm
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Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
A HUGE abundance of tropical moisture suspended over the Brazos Valley today (~130% of what is normal for this time of year). For certain: that means it will be a H U M I D tailgate before tonight's @aggiesfootball.bsky.social kick For possible: a few downpours before➡️kickoff #bcstx #txwx
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