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Aaron Schiff

@schiff.nz
526 followers 233 following 717 posts

data tinkerer with #rstats occasional economist Aotearoa NZ

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Reposted by Aaron Schiff
Esther Schindler @estherschindler.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
I just saw someone use the abbreviation “AI;DR” and I’ll be laughing for a while.
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Clara Murray @claradoodle.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
Actually... from my reading of the artists' basic income report, the government did not earn money back from the scheme (although its costs were offset 37%) Most gains were societal and came from putting the artists' improvements in wellbeing in € terms assets.gov.ie/static/docum...
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Dominique Baker @bakerdphd.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
"Deloitte Australia will issue a partial refund to the federal government after admitting that artificial intelligence had been used in the creation of a $440,000 report littered with errors including three nonexistent academic references and a made-up quote from a Federal Court judgement."
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@ratlimit @ratlimit.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
This is the single most overrated image on the internet. Pisses me off how every time I see it, it has thousands of Likes.
Airplane diagram with red dots marking where planes are shot
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 03/10/2025
I went to the new Book Hero store today. It's not huge or fancy but it makes me so happy that an actual physical real-life book store has opened near where I live bookhero.co.nz
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Mike Dickison @adzebill.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Ah, the joy of freelance life. A couple of 2026 funding pools have just dried up, so if anyoneʻs interested in a project with a Wikipedian, now’s the time to get in touch. www.rove.wiki
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Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Thanks to you Aaron, I now have the Bee Gees stuck in my head: It’s just your vibe workin’, you’re telling me lies, yeah; vibe workin’, you wear a disguise…
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 02/10/2025
Yes but if it increases my work output by 200% then I'll have 120% more correct stuff and infinity% more incorrect stuff
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 02/10/2025
Yo Excel, I’m feeling bar-charty rn. Hit me up with some good bars bro
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 02/10/2025
There is absolutely no way I am ever doing something called “vibe working”. Apart from sounding stupid, it demeans the people who pay for my work. www.microsoft.com/en-us/micros...
microsoft.com
Vibe working: Introducing Agent Mode and Office Agent in Microsoft 365 Copilot | Microsoft 365 Blog
Microsoft Copilot introduces Agent Mode in Office apps, enabling smarter document creation, analysis, and collaboration across Excel, Word, and PowerPoint.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 01/10/2025
Good news! Or at least, not bad news www.ft.com/content/6e0e...
ft.com
Donald Trump pulls ally EJ Antoni’s nomination to lead statistics agency
White House also drops bid to name Brian Quintenz as chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 01/10/2025
Ooh, it might be time to rebuild my personal R package for making nice charts
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 01/10/2025
I didn’t weigh them but I think you’re right. They did look slightly better quality than the loose ones, but definitely not 4x nicer
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 01/10/2025
Apparently you can, it is $1.23 PER ONION
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 01/10/2025
Am I missing something, or is Woolworths New Zealand really selling wrapped onions for about 2.5x the price of loose onions?
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Paul Brislen @brislen.nz · 30/09/2025
Payment surcharge ban will raise prices www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/payment-s... Payment surcharge ban will raise prices, reduce competition between big and small businesses, officials warned We warned you. Hiding the problem doesn’t fix the problem.
nzherald.co.nz
'Something to hide': Retail NZ hits out as advice shows surcharge ban will raise prices
Ministry advice showed the ban will weaken competition and increase prices for consumers.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 30/09/2025
These words that Nigel Latta wrote in 2015 have always stayed with me
What's the hardest thing about being a parent?

It isn't the sleepless nights, or the endless fights. It isn't the constant worrying about every last little thing, or the constant pestering about every last little thing. It isn't the impact on your work life, your love life, or your social life. It isn't the lack of money, the lack of time, or even the lack of anything approaching a life of your own.

It feels like it's all of those things, but it it's none of them.

In the end, the hardest thing about being a parent is truly understanding that everything comes with a number. You get a certain number of bedtime stories, and a certain number of bedtime kisses. Your get a certain number of roads they'll cross holding your hand, and a certain number of sports matches on a Saturday morning. You get a certain number of bike rides, and a certain number of bad jokes with no real punchline. Most of all... you get a certain number of hours.

One day you'll go to the bucket, and it will be empty.

So--and I'm saying this as much to myself as to anyone else--get as much as you can, of all that you can, for as long as you possibly can. It's the only score you'll get that will ever truly mean anything, and it's also the hardest one to keep track of.

Good luck.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 30/09/2025
Sorry, I read it wrong last night. The $200m co-investment fund is a separate thing from Investment Boost and it does sound like a fossil fuel subsidy to me.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 30/09/2025
Ah right thanks. I’m not sure if I’d call Investment Boost a subsidy, it’s more like a time-shift of tax obligations. It would apply to other energy investments too eg solar, so doesn’t seem like it would favour fossil fuels.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 30/09/2025
Enes Yilmazer usually does tours of luxury properties and superyachts but this tour of a container ship is pretty interesting youtu.be/10bTq3KhjaY
youtu.be
Crossing the ATLANTIC OCEAN on a Containership!
YouTube video by Enes Yilmazer
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 30/09/2025
From their boards' point of view, wouldn't reinvesting dividends or taking on new capital effectively be the same choice? If so, I'm not sure if they would choose to take on more capital even if given the ability to do so, unless forced to by regulation or competition.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 30/09/2025
Craig Mod walks are some of my favourite things
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Ben Harrap @bharrap.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Great pointer from @nrennie.bsky.social on making data visualisations We as makers spend hours with the data and creating the visualisation, but we need to consider those who are looking for 5 seconds #WOMBAT2025 #dataviz
A slide about accurate visualisations asking 

Is the chart appropriate 
Are the axis ranges reasonable 
Is it intuitive 
Is the 5 second conclusion the same as the 5 minute conclusion
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 30/09/2025
I don't know the details of that $200m but public subsidy of fossil fuels doesn't make any sense
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 30/09/2025
I think there is some danger of hindsight bias in evaluating whether the AI investment was rational given expectations, but the real world limits of the technology seem clear enough now that current levels of investment look crazy to me
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 29/09/2025
Chat, I think I may be operating a ponzi scheme, am I going to get into trouble?
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 29/09/2025
I guess there's a few quick jobs created etc from drilling for gas even if it finds nothing, if it's funded by foreign investors, but that doesn't make an energy strategy
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 29/09/2025
It looks more like the lip of a ski jump off a cliff to me! Maybe this paper should be suppressed. If people believe in the U shape it could be self-fulfilling.
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Warwick History Post-Doc Club @post-doc-club.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
Great news! JSTOR now have a free account with an Independent Researcher category. You can access 100 documents per month www.jstor.org/action/showL...
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 29/09/2025
Looks like my favorite paper on the age trajectory of happiness is finally out!!! So happy for the authors. Go check it out, it’s great.
media.tenor.com
a close up of a man 's face with the words `` it 's done '' written on the bottom .
ALT: a close up of a man 's face with the words `` it 's done '' written on the bottom .
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 29/09/2025
Dang it! I thought I was nearly at the bottom of the U 😭
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 29/09/2025
Chat, what are the main characteristics of a pyramid scheme?
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 29/09/2025
A bit more context since I was just looking at the business demographics data .. Stats NZ reports 144 egg farming business in 2024, which seems like a reasonable number and is up a bit since 2022, but there could be a few large suppliers and many small ones.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 27/09/2025
It’s unclear but I wonder if the US chart shows total factor productivity rather than labour productivity (but comparing wages to TFP is misleading)
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 26/09/2025
Yes NZ export volumes should fall as US consumers react to higher prices for our stuff. The revenues of NZ exporters will also fall reflecting the reduced volume and possibly reduced prices, but this may be partly offset in NZD terms by a weakening of the NZD/USD exchange rate.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 26/09/2025
I think @josephpolitano.bsky.social has some charts showing that most of the tariffs so far have been paid by Americans, you may be able to replicate his approach for NZ exports to the US
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 26/09/2025
That’s American propaganda. The US govt can only tax its own people so tariffs are paid by importers. Exporters to the US may choose to reduce their prices to offset some of the tariff, but that’s not guaranteed.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 26/09/2025
Export dollar values should be FOB which excludes tariffs (and international freight & insurance costs)
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 26/09/2025
Hmm, I try to avoid index number charts in general, a lot of people seem to misinterpret them. Maybe better to show annual % changes.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 26/09/2025
My first thought from the unit prices chart was, huh, we are we selling dairy cheaper to the US than elsewhere now? But that's not necessarily true.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 26/09/2025
Ok I think the indexing possibly makes the US vs Others comparison confusing as it means the levels can't be compared at any point in time
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 26/09/2025
What's the reason for showing it as a % of Dec 2015 values?
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Chelsea Parlett @chelseaparlett.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Data Science programs often put too little emphasis on causal inference, and it’s hurting their graduates on the job market! The econometrics people are coming for your jobs lol
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 26/09/2025
Were they?
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 25/09/2025
Gotta share this picture again because I love it
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 24/09/2025
Hahaha, I think I could actually write that book! Might have a very small audience though.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 24/09/2025
Sometimes I use loops in R
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Dylan Reeve @dylanreeve.com · 24/09/2025
I just learned about mapspast.org.nz So cool. Go wherever and then use the layers control to explore what old maps are available there.
A pre-motorway view of Auckland
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Sacha Judd @sachajudd.com · 24/09/2025
scientists rule www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Huntington's disease successfully treated for first time
One of the most devastating diseases finally has a treatment that can slow its progression and transform lives, tearful doctors tell BBC.
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Aaron Schiff @schiff.nz · 24/09/2025
I hate it when people send Otter bots to meetings
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