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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 07/09/2025

schadenball .com is back for #UCLFantasy 25/26! 👀 Adjustable Mins Points model 📺Improved data viz 📈 Enhanced xPoints model 💰 DFS xPoints (FanTeam, etc.) 🆓 Team-level eG, CS odds, team strength, captaincy, market odds Thanks to all the supporters - you guys are absolute legends!❤️ #UCL

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 20/08/2025

Season-long odds: goals,assists,cards for #FPL (Select players) Market baselines shift due to more than just returns-role changes, mins, sentiment, etc. Could be used to adjust our beliefs Debuting this in our GW2 FPL Script pod (youtube.com/@fplscript) & will continue to track through the season

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 01/08/2025

xA per 90 vs CBIT-R per 90 for all Premier League players (career data) Added recoveries for MIDs and FWDs Position-wise viz in the comments 👇 #FPL

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 30/07/2025

Finishing skill vs npxG p90 for all Premier League players* (career data) *Includes the newest FPL additions Let me know if you want to look at any other players in this viz

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 30/07/2025

xA per 90 vs CBIT per 90 for all Premier League players (career data) Phase I of data extraction for the 2025/26 UCL season is now complete. As part of prepping and training the data model, I’ve visualized some FPL-relevant metrics*. *Includes the newest FPL additions

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 10/06/2025

#CWCFantasy Unfortunately, I won't be publishing an EV model for CWC2025. Instead, the following data will be made available: ➡️Team Strength Model ➡️Player-level eG/eA odds (Tournament-totals & each MD) ➡️Team-level eG & odds movement FPL__Fran's YT channel will also feature all of this data👇. 1/n

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Reposted by FPL Schaden

Greyhead @fplgreyhead.bsky.social · 01/06/2025

#UCLFantasy Ended up just outside the top 10k which is respectable enough However, well done to @schadenball.com who win The Great and The Good, they finished 109th overall! Congratulations to Sukhraj, Obay and @big4fpl.bsky.social who pushed them to the end

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 06/05/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices* for #MD16 Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com *INT v BAR lineups will be available before deadline

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 06/05/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD16 Top 25 Market eGI points* (select players) *Lautaro eA priced at 0.14, eG .38, eGI pts 1.93

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Reposted by FPL Schaden

Joshua Bull @joshuabull.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

I know Indian food is much better than British food, but I had no idea they were eating jewellery and gems! No wonder our cooking doesn't have that same sparkle. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

"Once it comes into force, which could take up to a year, UK consumers are likely to benefit from the reduction in tariffs on goods coming into the country from India, the Department for Business said.

As well as clothing, that will include some Indian foodstuffs, such as frozen prawns, jewellery and gems."

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 29/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices* for #MD15 Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com *ARS v PSG lineups will be available prior to deadline

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 29/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD15: SF L1 Spread Markets eG for select players

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 17/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD14 61 POINTS RANK: 88 OP: 1199 (52 pts behind OR# 1) TV: 108.2m Chips used: LL6, WC13 A miraculous stay in the Top 100 after not owning the G-rassy hattrick. Kane will no longer troll me. The second of 2 penalty misses in fantasy football today - Bukayo Saka

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 15/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices* for #MD14 Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com DOR v BAR and AVL v PSG lineups will be available before deadline *Ferran Torres is a close 4th on 5.85

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 15/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD14 Top 25 Market eGI points* (select players) 4-hour deadline KLAXON** 🚨 *Ferran Torres eA not priced ** INT v BAY game eA market unavailable

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 15/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD14: QF L2 Spread Markets eG for select players

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 13/04/2025

2 years since we released E1 of the FPL Script (youtube.com/@fplscript) ! - 72 episodes - 50,000 views - 1070+ subs (and counting 🤞🏿) Thank you, everyone, for your support ♥️ we have some amazing viewers and hope the support continues and grows 🙏 - @fplfran.bsky.social and @schadenball.com

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ALT: a penguin wearing a number 2 shirt holds balloons

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 08/04/2025

#MD13 Market odds eG trends since 20-March Key news affecting eG have been highlighted as much as possible #UCL #UCLFantasy

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 08/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD13 : QF Proj. Goals - MD13 🥇Barcelona 2.52 🥈Paris S-G 2.4 🥉Bayern M. 1.57 Proj. Cleansheet - MD13 🥇Paris S-G 38% 🥈Barcelona 37% 🥉Bayern M. 36% Outright Winner - Odds 🥇Barcelona 23% 🥈Paris S-G 22% 🥉Real Madrid 18% MD15-17 data can be found at schadenball.com

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 07/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL : QFs Final Team Strength model update ahead of #MD13

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 27/03/2025

First 10-pack = positive variance Might as well stop playing till the next pack release #PokemonTCGP

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 22/03/2025

Any fellow #PokemonTCGP players got a spare Pachirisu 4♦️, Shieldon, or Cranidos ?

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 12/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD12 DAY TWO Top 25 Market eGI points* (To help with captaincy and sub-out decisions) 140-minute deadline KLAXON 🚨 *Arsenal assets have dicey xMins, proceed with caution

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 11/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD12 Top 25 Market eGI points* (select players) 85-minute deadline KLAXON** 🚨 *Lewandowski eA not priced ** LIL v DOR, AVL v BRU, ATM v RMA markets are not available

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 11/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices* for #MD12 Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com (please utilise BAR v BEN lineups) *Merino represents Arsenal Midfielders. All other Arsenal MIDs and DEFs have better EV than Adeyemi and Mbappe, but mins are extremely uncertain

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 10/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD12 : RO16 L2 Proj. Goals 🥇Barcelona 2.81 🥈Arsenal 2.67 🥉Inter 2.50 Proj. Cleansheet 🥇Inter 41% 🥈Arsenal 39% 🥉Aston Villa 34% ET prob. 🥇LIL-DOR 23% 🥈ATM-RMA 19.6% 🥉LIV-PSG 14.2% Downloadable files can be found here: schadenball.com

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 05/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD11 DAY TWO Top 25 Market eGI points (To help with captaincy and sub-out decisions) 65-minute deadline KLAXON 🚨

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 04/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL #MD11 : RO16 I will be joined by FPL_Mo for a deadline stream at 3.45pm UK time*. Rough agenda: - xP sense check - Discuss lineups for BRU v AVL - Discuss potential MD11 drafts based on latest EV 👉 youtube.com/live/dvRdXe0... *Mo will join about half an hour into the stream

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 04/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices for #MD11 Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com (Please utilise lineups for the BRU v AVL game)

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 04/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD11: RO16 Market eG points for select players A rare instance of all markets being available a day before the deadline!

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 03/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD11 : RO16 Proj. Goals - MD11 🥇Dortmund 2.17 🥈Barcelona 2.16 🥉Bayern M. 2.16 Proj. Cleansheet - MD11 🥇Inter 32% 🥈Bayern M. 30% 🥉Arsenal 29% Downloadable files can be found here: schadenball.com

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 03/03/2025

#UCL #UCLFantasy #MD11 Market odds eG trend for all teams from 26-Feb to 3-Mar PSG v Liverpool 👀

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 02/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL : RO16 Final Team Strength model update ahead of #MD11

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 18/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices for #MD10 Alternatives DAY ONE: Vangelis Pavlidis DAY TWO: Sehrou Guirassy Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 18/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD10: KO PO L2 Market eG points for select players (Market eA is only available for 2 games)

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 17/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD10 : KO PO L2 Extra-Time % 🥇Milan v Feyenoord 23.6% 🥈PSV v Juventus 20.6% 🥉R. Madrid v Man. City 15.7% NB: Points scored in Extra-Time are counted "CS intact till ET" helps gauge additional risk of team losing CS in ET. N/A implies game cannot go into ET if the team keeps a CS.

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 17/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD10 : KO play-off L2 Proj. Goals - MD10 🥇Bayern M. 3.37 🥈Paris S-G 2.99 🥉Atalanta 2.37 Proj. Cleansheet - MD10 🥇Bayern M. 46% 🥈Paris S-G 44% 🥉Milan 40% Downloadable files can be found here: schadenball.com

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 11/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices for #MD9 Kvicha Kvaratskhelia is BENCHED Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 11/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL #MD9 : KO Play-offs I will be joined by FPL_Mo for a deadline stream starting NOW. Rough agenda: - xP sense check - Discuss lineups for BRE v PSG - Discuss potential MD9 drafts based on latest EV 👉 www.youtube.com/live/Mx1pwsE...

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 11/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD9 : KO play-offs Proj. Goals - MD9 🥇Bayern M. 2.65 🥈Paris S-G 2.41 🥉Man. City 1.88 Proj. Cleansheet - MD9 🥇Paris S-G 38% 🥈Bayern M. 36% 🥉Juventus 35% Downloadable files can be found here: schadenball.com

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 07/02/2025

GW25 Assistant Manager Points Potential 📊 No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value. However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling? Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data

Box plot showing GW25 point projections for all Premier League Assistant Managers. Liverpool and Villa lead (17.4, 15.8 mean). Other teams cluster 2-13 points. Displays mean (black line), interquartile range (solid pink), and 5-95th percentiles (hatched areas)

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Reposted by FPL Schaden

Greyhead @fplgreyhead.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

85 points in #UCLFantasy putting me up to 662 OR Meanwhile in The Great and The Good Ahsan (give us a wave) with @big4fpl.bsky.social @schadenball.com in the top 10

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 28/01/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD8 Proj. Goals - MD8 🥇Bayern M. 5.29 🥈Man. City 3.23 🥉Leverkusen 3.07 Proj. Cleansheet - MD8 🥇Bayern M. 64% 🥈Leverkusen 53% 🥉Man. City 48% Downloadable files can be found at schadenball.com

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 28/01/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL I will be joined by @fplmo.bsky.social for a deadline stream tomorrow at 6pm UK time - We get lineups for all 36 teams, so we can change mins in the EV model to sense check - Discuss lineups - Discuss potential Limitless drafts based on latest EV 👉 www.youtube.com/live/Q_7J9u6...

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 27/01/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Final Team Strength model update ahead of #MD8

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Greyhead @fplgreyhead.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Well done to Ashan who leads the #UCLFantasy Great and Good with a whopping 705 and OR of 24! @schadenball.com @big4fpl.bsky.social and yours truly still in the top 10

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 19/12/2024

#UCL #UCLFantasy UCL Matchday podcast will be streaming today at 3pm GMT - UCL Fantasy season so far - @fplinstinctive.bsky.social & EV models - Captaincy recommendation - Adj xMins EV model - Chip strategy - Suggestions to improve schadenball.com content - MOTM modelling Link: shorturl.at/1FIlj

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 17/12/2024

#FPL #GW15 2024/25 49 POINTS OP: 866 OR: 3.68M 📉 TV: 101.9m Chips used: WC To paraphrase Nick Kyrgios, "Can't buy pos var"

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FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 12/12/2024

#UCLFantasy #MD6 108 POINTS OP: 595 OR: 266📈 TV: 101.4 m Chips used: Limitless Running at a ridiculous 99.16 points per GW 😂 Sadly couldn't outscore my chipless MD5 squad :( Hopefully the WC can get me into DD OR; What an incredible season it's been so far! ❤️ P.S.: Hate Theo for ruining 11/11

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Hedgehog @fplhedgehog.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

Assistant manager chip is the worst thing FPL have ever done for the wider game. Absolutely bizarre decision - feels very panicked and ‘we’ve got to do something now we’ve announced a mystery chip’

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