iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 07/09/2025

schadenball .com is back for #UCLFantasy 25/26! 👀 Adjustable Mins Points model 📺Improved data viz 📈 Enhanced xPoints model 💰 DFS xPoints (FanTeam, etc.) 🆓 Team-level eG, CS odds, team strength, captaincy, market odds Thanks to all the supporters - you guys are absolute legends!❤️ #UCL

010 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 20/08/2025

Season-long odds: goals,assists,cards for #FPL (Select players) Market baselines shift due to more than just returns-role changes, mins, sentiment, etc. Could be used to adjust our beliefs Debuting this in our GW2 FPL Script pod (youtube.com/@fplscript) & will continue to track through the season

021 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 01/08/2025

xA per 90 vs CBIT-R per 90 for all Premier League players (career data) Added recoveries for MIDs and FWDs Position-wise viz in the comments 👇 #FPL

230 3

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 31/07/2025

idk why a low res image was posted. I think you'd be able to read from this one

120 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 30/07/2025

Finishing skill vs npxG p90 for all Premier League players* (career data) *Includes the newest FPL additions Let me know if you want to look at any other players in this viz

3131 13

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 30/07/2025

xA per 90 vs CBIT per 90 for all Premier League players (career data) Phase I of data extraction for the 2025/26 UCL season is now complete. As part of prepping and training the data model, I’ve visualized some FPL-relevant metrics*. *Includes the newest FPL additions

271 7

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 10/06/2025

➡️Team-level Data for MD1 Fix. Quality = eG/eGA

010 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 10/06/2025

➡️Player-level eG (Tournament Totals) Select players - full list will be available on Patreon (free access) and also on FPL__Fran's YT channel P.S. MD1 eGI will be available closer to the weekend. 3/n

120 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 10/06/2025

➡️Team Strength Model I've used a new methodology of trying to reverse engineer team strengths using Spreadex eG for MD1 and OPTA's power rankings. Your feedback will help me tune the model even further before Sunday. 2/n

110 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 10/06/2025

#CWCFantasy Unfortunately, I won't be publishing an EV model for CWC2025. Instead, the following data will be made available: ➡️Team Strength Model ➡️Player-level eG/eA odds (Tournament-totals & each MD) ➡️Team-level eG & odds movement FPL__Fran's YT channel will also feature all of this data👇. 1/n

130 3

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 06/05/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices* for #MD16 Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com *INT v BAR lineups will be available before deadline

010 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 06/05/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD16 Top 25 Market eGI points* (select players) *Lautaro eA priced at 0.14, eG .38, eGI pts 1.93

001 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 29/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices* for #MD15 Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com *ARS v PSG lineups will be available prior to deadline

010 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 29/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD15: SF L1 Spread Markets eG for select players

010 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 21/04/2025

ran this post deadline and the top line is a -16 with probability fixtures

120 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 17/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD14 61 POINTS RANK: 88 OP: 1199 (52 pts behind OR# 1) TV: 108.2m Chips used: LL6, WC13 A miraculous stay in the Top 100 after not owning the G-rassy hattrick. Kane will no longer troll me. The second of 2 penalty misses in fantasy football today - Bukayo Saka

030 3

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 15/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices* for #MD14 Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com DOR v BAR and AVL v PSG lineups will be available before deadline *Ferran Torres is a close 4th on 5.85

020 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 15/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD14 Top 25 Market eGI points* (select players) 4-hour deadline KLAXON** 🚨 *Ferran Torres eA not priced ** INT v BAY game eA market unavailable

020 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 15/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD14: QF L2 Spread Markets eG for select players

010 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 08/04/2025

#MD13 Market odds eG trends since 20-March Key news affecting eG have been highlighted as much as possible #UCL #UCLFantasy

030 3

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 08/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD13 : QF Proj. Goals - MD13 🥇Barcelona 2.52 🥈Paris S-G 2.4 🥉Bayern M. 1.57 Proj. Cleansheet - MD13 🥇Paris S-G 38% 🥈Barcelona 37% 🥉Bayern M. 36% Outright Winner - Odds 🥇Barcelona 23% 🥈Paris S-G 22% 🥉Real Madrid 18% MD15-17 data can be found at schadenball.com

031 3

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 07/04/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL : QFs Final Team Strength model update ahead of #MD13

010 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 27/03/2025

First 10-pack = positive variance Might as well stop playing till the next pack release #PokemonTCGP

010 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 12/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD12 DAY TWO Top 25 Market eGI points* (To help with captaincy and sub-out decisions) 140-minute deadline KLAXON 🚨 *Arsenal assets have dicey xMins, proceed with caution

030 3

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 11/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD12 Top 25 Market eGI points* (select players) 85-minute deadline KLAXON** 🚨 *Lewandowski eA not priced ** LIL v DOR, AVL v BRU, ATM v RMA markets are not available

020 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 11/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices* for #MD12 Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com (please utilise BAR v BEN lineups) *Merino represents Arsenal Midfielders. All other Arsenal MIDs and DEFs have better EV than Adeyemi and Mbappe, but mins are extremely uncertain

021 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 10/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD12 : RO16 L2 Proj. Goals 🥇Barcelona 2.81 🥈Arsenal 2.67 🥉Inter 2.50 Proj. Cleansheet 🥇Inter 41% 🥈Arsenal 39% 🥉Aston Villa 34% ET prob. 🥇LIL-DOR 23% 🥈ATM-RMA 19.6% 🥉LIV-PSG 14.2% Downloadable files can be found here: schadenball.com

011 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 05/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD11 DAY TWO Top 25 Market eGI points (To help with captaincy and sub-out decisions) 65-minute deadline KLAXON 🚨

010 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 04/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL #MD11 : RO16 I will be joined by FPL_Mo for a deadline stream at 3.45pm UK time*. Rough agenda: - xP sense check - Discuss lineups for BRU v AVL - Discuss potential MD11 drafts based on latest EV 👉 youtube.com/live/dvRdXe0... *Mo will join about half an hour into the stream

020 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 04/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices for #MD11 Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com (Please utilise lineups for the BRU v AVL game)

131 3

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 04/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD11: RO16 Market eG points for select players A rare instance of all markets being available a day before the deadline!

140 4

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 03/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD11 : RO16 Proj. Goals - MD11 🥇Dortmund 2.17 🥈Barcelona 2.16 🥉Bayern M. 2.16 Proj. Cleansheet - MD11 🥇Inter 32% 🥈Bayern M. 30% 🥉Arsenal 29% Downloadable files can be found here: schadenball.com

020 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 03/03/2025

#UCL #UCLFantasy #MD11 Market odds eG trend for all teams from 26-Feb to 3-Mar PSG v Liverpool 👀

020 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 02/03/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL : RO16 Final Team Strength model update ahead of #MD11

020 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 18/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices for #MD10 Alternatives DAY ONE: Vangelis Pavlidis DAY TWO: Sehrou Guirassy Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com

020 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 18/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD10: KO PO L2 Market eG points for select players (Market eA is only available for 2 games)

000 0

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 17/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD10 : KO PO L2 Extra-Time % 🥇Milan v Feyenoord 23.6% 🥈PSV v Juventus 20.6% 🥉R. Madrid v Man. City 15.7% NB: Points scored in Extra-Time are counted "CS intact till ET" helps gauge additional risk of team losing CS in ET. N/A implies game cannot go into ET if the team keeps a CS.

010 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 17/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD10 : KO play-off L2 Proj. Goals - MD10 🥇Bayern M. 3.37 🥈Paris S-G 2.99 🥉Atalanta 2.37 Proj. Cleansheet - MD10 🥇Bayern M. 46% 🥈Paris S-G 44% 🥉Milan 40% Downloadable files can be found here: schadenball.com

020 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 11/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Captaincy choices for #MD9 Kvicha Kvaratskhelia is BENCHED Full adjustable mins model can be found at schadenball.com

020 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 11/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL #MD9 : KO Play-offs I will be joined by FPL_Mo for a deadline stream starting NOW. Rough agenda: - xP sense check - Discuss lineups for BRE v PSG - Discuss potential MD9 drafts based on latest EV 👉 www.youtube.com/live/Mx1pwsE...

010 1

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 11/02/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD9 : KO play-offs Proj. Goals - MD9 🥇Bayern M. 2.65 🥈Paris S-G 2.41 🥉Man. City 1.88 Proj. Cleansheet - MD9 🥇Paris S-G 38% 🥈Bayern M. 36% 🥉Juventus 35% Downloadable files can be found here: schadenball.com

020 2

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 28/01/2025

#UCLFantasy #MD8 Proj. Goals - MD8 🥇Bayern M. 5.29 🥈Man. City 3.23 🥉Leverkusen 3.07 Proj. Cleansheet - MD8 🥇Bayern M. 64% 🥈Leverkusen 53% 🥉Man. City 48% Downloadable files can be found at schadenball.com

030 3

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 28/01/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL I will be joined by @fplmo.bsky.social for a deadline stream tomorrow at 6pm UK time - We get lineups for all 36 teams, so we can change mins in the EV model to sense check - Discuss lineups - Discuss potential Limitless drafts based on latest EV 👉 www.youtube.com/live/Q_7J9u6...

030 3

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 27/01/2025

#UCLFantasy #UCL Final Team Strength model update ahead of #MD8

131 3

FPL Schaden @schadenball.com · 19/12/2024

#UCL #UCLFantasy UCL Matchday podcast will be streaming today at 3pm GMT - UCL Fantasy season so far - @fplinstinctive.bsky.social & EV models - Captaincy recommendation - Adj xMins EV model - Chip strategy - Suggestions to improve schadenball.com content - MOTM modelling Link: shorturl.at/1FIlj

010 1