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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 13/03/2026

Your first @fantasynwsl.com cheat sheet! Here are your odds-implied xG and clean sheet probabilities for the first gameweek's fixtures. #NWSL #NWSLFantasy

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Chloe @chloesainsbury.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

Your fave women’s footie analytics gals (@cata-bush.bsky.social and myself, ofc) are at it again! Below is a VAEP inspired breakdown of the Women’s Euros group stages - read to see which players and teams have shown out or bombed (whoops, Netherlands 👀): open.substack.com/pub/beyondth...

open.substack.com

5 takeaways from the Women's Euro group stages

The Women’s Euros kicked off at the start of July and Catalina Bush and I launched an online app using the Value Actions by Estimating Probabilities (VAEP) framework. The app is being updated after ev...

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 04/04/2025

📊 GW31-33: Top Assistant Manager Projections: GW31: Brentford & West Ham lead (mean ~9.5) GW32: Palace and Newcastle top the chart (~13 & 12.5 resp.) GW33: Arsenal are clear (~15.5 points) Data: 100k sims based on @elevenify.com team ratings

Box plot visualization showing top 5 Assistant Manager projections for GW31-33. Each gameweek shows 5 teams with their expected points distributions (5-95th and 25-75th percentile ranges plus mean values). GW31 leaders: Brentford and West Ham. GW32 leader: Crystal Palace and Newcastle. GW33 leader: Arsenal. Based on 100k simulations using Elevenify team ratings.

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 20/02/2025

Glasner vs Arteta: As with all of these charts, feel free to swap out Glasner with whichever flavour of table bonus manager you prefer. They're all near enough to each other that you can let your personal biases sway you!

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 20/02/2025

📊 GW26: Stay at the Slot machine or gamble elsewhere? 250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile. Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com

Probability distribution of the difference between Arteta and Slot's assistant manager points for GW26. The expected value is that Arteta outscores slot by 3.90 points. Arteta outscores Slot 72.99% of the time, and Slot outscores Arteta 18.52% of the time. The distribution is mostly a single plateau between 0 and 10 point difference in Arteta's favour.

Probability distribution of the difference between Glasner and Slot's assistant manager points for GW26. The expected value is that Arteta outscores slot by 3.62 points. Glasner outscores Slot 54.00% of the time, and Slot outscores Glasner 35.84% of the time. The distribution is erratic. The highest likelihood outcome is a relatively even affair, with smaller spikes occurring at +10 and +20 in Glasner's favour, but also -5 and -10 in Slot's favour.

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 20/02/2025

📊 GW26 Projections: Pick your Poisson Left: Team ratings from @elevenify.com Right: SpreadEx odds via @robtfpl.com (accessed 19/02) The key disagreement seems to be that Elevenify's model has lower expectations for Liverpool and Ipswich compared to current market odds

Comparative box plots of GW26 Assistant Manager projections. Each team's projected points shown with 5-95th percentile (hatched areas) and 25-75th percentile (solid boxes) ranges, plus mean values marked by black lines.

This plot is based on team ratings from Elevenify.com. The top 4 are: ARS (8.53), CRY (8.24), LEI (7.93), and SOU (7.24). Liverpool are projected 4.61 and Villa 5.14

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 18/02/2025

📊 AM25 Live: Following Villa's surprise draw vs IPS, Emery trails Slot by 4. However, that would change if they pull off an upset of their own against Liverpool. Fittingly a draw (22%) results in almost no difference in points, whereas a decisive result is, well, decisive. Data: @elevenify.com

A probability distribution graph showing predicted points difference between Emery and Slot in GW25. The graph is split into two coloured sections: pink (51.47% chance Slot outscores) and blue (48.53% chance Emery outscores). Three main peaks show the points difference for each game outcome: one at 1 point difference (drawn game), another at -11 to -19 points (Slot ahead, Liverpool win), and a third at +13 to +19 points (Emery ahead, Villa win). Expected value is -2.62 points in Slot's favor.

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 18/02/2025

📊 GW26: Arteta vs Glasner Similar means, vastly different distributions: Arteta is much more consistent: ~70% to score 8-12pts. Glasner has a much higher ceiling thanks to the table bonus potential - if you can stomach the 45% chance to score 2pts or fewer. Odds data via @robtfpl.com

Probability distribution graph comparing expected Assistant Manager points for GW26 between Mikel Arteta (Arsenal, red line) and Oliver Glasner (Crystal Palace, blue line). Arteta shows a mean of 8.29 points with peaks around 8-12 points, while Glasner averages 8.25 with notable spikes at 0, 8-10, and 18-20 points. Both distributions suggest significant variance in potential outcomes.

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 13/02/2025

Head-to-head: Slot vs Emery in GW25 📊 Slot favoured (~61%) to score more points than Emery, but there's still plenty of upside for Emery. He beats Slot by at least 15 points in more than 17% of sims. The expectation however, is that Slot wins by ~1.7 points. Based on 1M sims via @elevenify.com

Probability distribution curve showing expected points difference between Emery and Slot in GW25. Left side (pink, 61%) shows Slot outscoring Emery, peaking around -10 points. Right side (blue, 38%) shows Emery outscoring Slot, with peaks at +5 and +18 points. Dotted line shows mean at -1.66 points favouring Slot.

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elevenify @elevenify.com · 09/02/2025

Fantasy Frameworks 💡 A new resource for members. 23+ Frameworks. 6,000+ Words. This will make you a better #FPL manager. www.elevenify.com/p/fantasy-fr...

elevenify.com

Fantasy Frameworks

Tools for making better decisions.

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Reposted by Guy McCombe

Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 04/02/2025

A full probability matrix for every outcome for Slot and Moyes' points after the Merseyside Derby 🔵🔴

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 07/02/2025

GW25 Assistant Manager Points Potential 📊 No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value. However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling? Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data

Box plot showing GW25 point projections for all Premier League Assistant Managers. Liverpool and Villa lead (17.4, 15.8 mean). Other teams cluster 2-13 points. Displays mean (black line), interquartile range (solid pink), and 5-95th percentiles (hatched areas)

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 06/02/2025

Looking a little further: Emery vs Slot over next two GWs 📈 250k sims project tight race: Slot (mean: 22.9) vs Emery (mean: 21.9) over GWs 25 & 26. Similar means but different paths, with the Villa manager showing a wider spread of potential outcomes.

Line graph comparing probability distributions of combined GW25+26 points for Emery (AVL, blue) and Slot (LIV, red), based on 250,000 simulations. Emery's distribution shows two peaks around 15 and 22 points with extended tail to 45 points, while Slot's distribution has single peak around 23 points. Dotted lines indicate mean outcomes around 22 and 23 points resp. for both managers.

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 06/02/2025

DGW25 Locked: Emery vs Slot Head-to-Head 📊 2M simulations show Slot (mean: 17.4) edging Emery (15.8). Full probability heatmap included - I will update with a higher resolution view once outcomes constrict after each team's first match of the gameweek.

Line graph comparing DGW25 probabilities for Emery (AVL) and Slot (LIV). Based on 2M simulations. Emery's distribution peaks at ~11 points (mean 15.8), Slot's at ~22 points (mean 17.4), shown by dotted lines.

Probability matrix showing point combinations for Emery (0-40) vs Slot (0-30) in DGW25. Highest concentrations around 11-13 points for Emery and 19-22 for Slot. Sums at edges show marginal probabilities.

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 04/02/2025

⚔️ Merseyside Derby Impact on the AM24 Points Gap A Liverpool win (~68%) puts Slot owners at least 5 points clear, however there's also plenty of points available for an Everton upset. Data: @elevenify.com

Table showing how different Everton vs Liverpool match outcomes affect the points difference between Moyes and Slot in DGW24. Ranges from Liverpool wins (-13 to -5 points difference, probabilities 0.004 to 0.158), through a draw (7 points, 0.160), to Everton wins (19 to 26 points difference, probabilities 0.075 to 0.000). Each scenario includes specific score possibilities and their associated probabilities.

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 01/02/2025

Update after each team's first game: Slot: 10 points, expectation: 17.90 Moyes: 12 points, expectation: 17.24 📈 Gap narrows but Slot maintains the edge heading into EVE vs LIV. Team ratings: @elevenify.com

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 01/02/2025

📊 Slot vs Moyes - DGW24 Points Distribution 250k simulations reveal Moyes's higher ceiling but more volatility, while Slot shows a tighter points range. Risk vs reward in visual form. Data: @elevenify.com & me

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 31/01/2025

AM24 vs AM25 Optimal Routes Analysis 📊 Comparing chip strategies based on DGW25 scenarios. Liverpool progress vs Spurs progress paths shown. Let me know if you have another route you would like to see analysed 👇 Data: Team ratings @elevenify.com; progression odds @robtfpl.com; simulations by me

Table showing AM24 optimal routes with two scenarios. If Liverpool progress (70%): Liverpool GW24 (14.95), Liverpool GW25 (17.43), Arsenal GW26 (9.62), total 42.00. If Tottenham progress (30%): Liverpool GW24 (14.95), Fulham GW25 (18.32), Arsenal GW26 (9.62), total 42.89.

Table showing AM25 optimal routes with two scenarios. If Liverpool progress (70%): Liverpool GW25 (17.43), Arsenal GW26 (9.62), Chelsea GW27 (9.91), total 36.96. If Tottenham progress (30%): Fulham GW25 (18.32), Arsenal GW26 (9.62), Chelsea GW27 (9.91), total 37.85.

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elevenify @elevenify.com · 31/01/2025

GW 24 - 26 #FPL UPDATED Assistant Manager Chip Predicted Points 📊 Final updated AM predicted points. This considers all available information (as of post-announcements 31st Jan) and is the best current estimate of predicted points. Big thanks to @guymc.com for running simulations.

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Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 31/01/2025

DGW25 Assistant Manager Points Projection 📊 Expected points for managers over next 3 GWs, assuming potential doubles for each team DGW25. Points include weighted probability of table bonus based on the likelihood that they are eligible at that time. Based on team ratings from @elevenify.com

Table showing expected FPL assistant manager points across GW24-26. Manager data: Emery (£0.8m) - 6.36, 16.06, 6.14, total 28.57; Slot (£1.5m) - 14.92, 17.44, 5.44, total 37.81; Silva (£1.1m) - 6.52, 18.34, 6.16, total 31.03; Postecoglu (£1.1m) - 5.59, 15.26, 7.44, total 28.30; Arteta (£1.5m) - 7.23, 17.45, 9.62, total 34.30; Maresca (£1.5m) - 8.49, 8.67, 5.44, total 22.60. Data based on 125,000 simulations using Elevenify.com team ratings (30/01/25).

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