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NFL Composite Power Ratings: Week 2

I've included commentary and a Google Sheets link ($) in my Substack post here (which you can get delivered to your inbox earlier in the day if you subscribe): samhoppen.substack.com/p/nfl-compos...

samhoppen.substack.com

Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills, who take over the #1 spot in the composite ratings

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Here's a look at each matchup's spread through the eyes of the composite ratings (this is not betting advice):

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Week 2 NFL Composite Power Ratings! Sources: @espn.com (FPI) Robby Greerre (nfelo) @inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable) Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points) @ftnfantasy.com / @aaronschatz.com (DVOA) @profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)

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Grain of salt because it's the Raiders D, but the Dolphins had 4 explosive passes on Sunday, 2 of which came from Caleb Douglas. Malik Willis has been one of the most efficient downfield passers the past couple years so think they gotta attack that more to generate explosives.

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Reposted by Sam Hoppen

Offensive and defensive success rates by down:

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Reposted by Sam Hoppen

Updated to include MNF:

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Running back and team high-value touches (HVT):

Oh geez not sure what happened there, will repost!

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Breaking down team performance by various components, measured by total EPA (all components are measured in a way that positive EPA is better):

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Offensive and defensive success rates by down:

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Before I keep posting, I want to wish a very happy Chart Day to all who celebrate! I won't be posting every chart that I make on here, but you'll be able to find them all on my Substack in my weekly Hoppen to Conclusions article (including commentary)! Link to subscribe below!

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Reposted by Sam Hoppen

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates for NFL games in Week 1:

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates for NFL games in Week 1:

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2 games down, 14 more to go! I put together matchup previews for each of the remaining games in Week 1! You can see all of them on my Substack (🔗⤵️)!

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How the game was won: 49ers vs. Rams The 49ers had their way on offense for most of the night, but more impressive may have been their defensive performance. The 41% pressure rate that SF had last night was better than any single-game pressure rate they had last year.

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I'm not sure how you can show such ease moving the ball on one drive and then as soon as you get stopped one (1) time realize gaining two yards would be impossible

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Different continent, same conservative Kyle

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Yeah, it's being played down under. Helps them read it better.

Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Quick preview for tonight's game in Australia between the Rams and the 49ers! The 49ers' offense will be at full strength for the first time that anyone plays this daunting Rams defense. Excited to see what parts of the defense Shanahan targets and how effective they'll be!

Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

How the game was won: Seahawks vs. Patriots Turnovers end up being the difference in a game where both teams showed plenty of inconsistency.

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Reposted by Sam Hoppen

Word on the street is we've got an NFL game tonight?? So, here's my matchup preview for our Super Bowl rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks! Will be fascinated to see how New England handles Seattle's pass rush tonight. Note: data is from 2025 season.

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Reposted by Sam Hoppen

Week 1 NFL Composite Power Ratings! Sources: @espn.com (FPI) Robby Greerre (nfelo) @inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable) Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points) @ftnfantasy.com/@aaronschatz.com (DVOA) @profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)

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NFL Composite Power Ratings: Week 1

I've included commentary and a Google Sheets link in my Substack post here (which you can get delivered to your inbox earlier in the day if you subscribe): samhoppen.substack.com/p/nfl-compos...

samhoppen.substack.com

The Rams come in at the top to start the season, but who follows them as potential contenders?

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Here's a look at each matchup's spread through the eyes of the composite ratings (this is not betting advice):