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On Feb 3, 2024, the Warriors lost to the Hawks, despite +101% in win probability added from Steph Curry. It's the 12th best WPA performance from an NBA player in a losing effort (in the play by play era).

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Reposted by Mike Beuoy

Mina Kimes @minakimes.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Indianapolis got that call and said errrrrmmmmmm let’s turtle up

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Kind of funny that there were 2 tv shows this year that: - Were set on an island with a complicated back story - Teenage character whose mom died in childbirth and had to be raised by their adoptive dad - There is a late season plot twist regarding the lineage of one of the teenagers on the island

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Reposted by Mike Beuoy

Evollve @evollve.net · 01/09/2026

Weekly recap is back! 🏐Purdue Fort Wayne gets a B1G win 🏐Jurnee Robinson's ice in her veins 🏐Our first top 25 update! evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...

evollve.substack.com

Weekly Recap: Week 1

Thank you for supporting Evollve!

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Reposted by Mike Beuoy

Evollve @evollve.net · 21/08/2026

🚨2026 site is live 🚨 Just in time for the start of the season tonight, we've launched the updated Evollve.net including 🏐new features such as player impact metrics like RAPM 🏐game projections including for both games tonight 🏐much more! Our preseason top 10:

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Two 🔥 games in the WNBA last night. stats.inpredictable.com/wnba/preCap....

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

me remembering that i started inpredictable because i was doing more management stuff in my day job, but I still wanted an outlet where i could code and play around with data, rather than just tell someone else to code it and review the results.

static.klipy.com

Alonzo Mourning's Disappointment on the Bench

ALT: Alonzo Mourning's Disappointment on the Bench

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Here's an alternative look at the biggest shots in modern NBA history, this time sorted by change in title probability (rather than KL divergence). Some my think this is a better list - we get Jordan twice here. But Ray Allen's shot gets downgraded.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Ranking the biggest shots in modern NBA history (link in thread). As mentioned yesterday, the #1 shot is a put-back, but it wasn't OG's, which ranked 6th. Derrick White #1 Ray Allen #2 Kyrie #3 Big Shot Bob #4 and #5

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

I'm working on a way to quantify the biggest shots in the NBA in the past 30 years - based on impact to championship probability. The #1 shot surprised me. A few hints: 1. It was a putback 2. It wasn't a game 7 3. It's not that one, though it does make the top 10

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Clutch Win Probability Added leaderboard for the 1st four games of the 2026 NBA Finals. This counts all potential clutch plays - field goals, free throws, rebounds, turnovers, steals, blocks, and assists.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Visiting Jacob Bernoulli’s tomb in Basel. He loved the logarithmic spiral because of its self similarity property. No matter how much you zoom out it looks the same. The epitaph reads “EADEM MUTATA RESURGO”, meaning “Although changed, I will rise again the same”.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

New post on Substack. Largely just an announcement that the new version of Excitement Index is now live for both NBA and WNBA win probability charts. Link: inpredictable.substack.com/p/the-new-ex...

inpredictable.substack.com

The New Excitement Index is now live for NBA and WNBA win probabilities

Fun with information theory

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 31/05/2026

Your opponent getting an offensive rebound when you're trying to make a late comeback is so demoralizing.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

The 4th and 5th most improbable comebacks of the NBA playoffs took place almost exactly a year apart and at the same venue.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

By the current definition of excitement index, Spurs-Thunder last night was the most exciting game of the playoffs.

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Reposted by Mike Beuoy

Michael Baumann @baumann.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

I really struggle to articulate the disdain I have for the "insider" model that does no investigative reporting or independent analysis and serves only to beat the press release by five minutes. I understand a lot of work goes into it but a lot of work would go into digging a big hole in your yard

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

I’m in charge of the NYT crossword puzzle. I’m obsessed with the website Etsy, the acronym ETA, the volcano Etna, and the first name of actress Ayo Edebiri.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

it's fun when your ggplots go off the rails in aesthetically interesting ways

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

The Sixers were 360 basis points from elimination early in the 3rd quarter.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Charlotte-Miami win probability chart:

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

I think most would agree this is a legitimate clutch assist from Jokic (double teamed and finding an open Hardaway on the opposite end of the court): www.nba.com/stats/events... But....

nba.com

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

A video and Shot Chart interface with the ability to filter down to specific on court events and granular details.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Here are the final player clutch rankings for the 2025-26 NBA season. Shai and Jokic finished neck and neck.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Inspired by Zak Kram's article on pace in ESPN, here is an updated chart that shows team correlation by season between offensive pace versus efficiency. An downward sloping line indicates a positive correlation between fast pace and offensive efficiency.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

You can set your watch to the reliability of the rubber band effect in the NBA. Red = Team overperforms Blue = Team underperforms Teams play better from behind. It's pretty much the opposite of momentum.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

You can check a box on the inpredictable win probability graphs to display real time, rather than game time, on the horizontal axis. That can be helpful for a game like LAC-IND where a game's worth of insanity was packed into the final second.

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Reposted by Mike Beuoy

Edward Egros @edwithsports.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

I watched #Kansas nearly blow a 26-point lead last week. The bigger opponent for CBU wasn't Kansas, it was the clock. With help from @inpredict.bsky.social, here's what the numbers say about when teams should stop hunting quick 2's & start hunting 3's: open.substack.com/pub/edwithsp...

open.substack.com

Corralling the Madness in College Basketball

Why Don't More Teams Understand Late-Game Situations?

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

Update after last night's games:

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

New Substack post: March Madness Forecasting Thunderdome I apply my Kelly-based forecast evaluation method to models predicting the NCAA Men's Basketball national champion. Link: open.substack.com/pub/inpredic...

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Just an absurd win probability chart

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

A lot of conseqeuntial games in the NHL today. Here's how playoff chances for each team are impacted based on the outcomes today: win: 2 points overtime loss: 1 point regulation loss: 0 points

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 21/03/2026

Meta-bracketology for the NCAA Women's Tournament. Of the 3,511 brackets analyzed, there were 2,817 unique brackets (80%). The most common number of seed upsets picked was 0. Next most common was 8.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

Some meta-bracketology, using 20,000+ brackets submitted to the NCAA's bracket challenge. Of the 20,751 brackets analyzed, there were 18,724 unique brackets (90%). The most common number of upsets picked: 12

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Last year, the perfect bracket odds were about 10 billion to 1. When I looked at this way back in 2010-2014, the odds averaged around 50 billion to 1.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

2.6 billion to 1 That's the odds of a perfect mens tournament bracket this year, if you picked based on @kenpom.com ratings and assume that those ratings represent the true probabilities. That's better odds than last year, where I estimated a 10 billion to 1 chance.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Beeswarm plot to illustrate the hilarity of Bam's 83 points.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

Tonight's Spurs comeback is a good example for why KL-divergence is a better measure of game quality. Current Excitement Index (total change in win prob): MIA @ CHA: 8.6 ✅ LAC @ SAS: 8.2 KL-Divergence: MIA @ CHA: 2.2 LAC @ SAS: 4.4 ✅

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

New (and first) post up on Substack. Creating a better way of ranking games with the help of Claude.......Shannon. inpredictable.substack.com/p/quantifyin...

inpredictable.substack.com

Quantifying Excitement

Using information theory to improve the ranking of NBA and WNBA games

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

NBA season leaders in Clutch Win Probability Added. The market favorite is Ant, but by this metric Desmond Bane deserves to be in the conversation for the Jerry West Clutch Player of the Year Award.

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Reposted by Mike Beuoy

Rodger Sherman @rodger.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

THE FINAL SPORTS! NEWSLETTER OF THE OLYMPICS Team USA had its best Winter Olympics ever. I wrote about why we can never let the worst things about America keep us from celebrating the best things about America. Also, bobsled and cross-country skiing results!

sports.beehiiv.com

The Olympics, Finale: Team USA's Best Winter Games Ever

Team USA capped off its best Winter Olympics ever with DOUBLE GOLD IN HOCKEY. It was such a joy to watch these Winter Olympics with you.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

Favorite random science-related point of interest in Pasadena: There’s a mural dedicated to Richard Feynman on the back wall of a Ross Dress for Less.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

I'm sure this has been pointed out before, but it's nifty that the NBA draft lottery uses 4 draws from a pool of 14 numbered ping pong balls because the binomial coefficient C(14,4) is *almost* 1,000 - it's 1,001. Makes a nice round number for an easy mapping of combos to team.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

I finally got around to formalizing my Kelly betting-based method of evaluating time-updating probabilistic forecasts (e.g. in-game win probability, election models, etc.) in a paper. It is now up on arXiv. 1/

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