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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Just posted waterfall game recap charts over on my Substack for all the Week 2 games so far! Added a little commentary on what caught my eye as well. Another great week of football! 🔗⤵️

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Just posted matchup previews for all of the Week 2 games on my Substack (🔗 below)! Check out how each team's offense matches up against their opponent's defense:

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

How the game was won: Bills vs. Lions Josh Allen

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

TNF preview: Bills 🦬 vs. Lions 🦁 Should be a barnburner of a game tonight as the Bills christen their new stadium! The Bills' defense didn't get much pressure against Houston, but with Detroit's OL in shambles it gives them an opportunity to make Jared Goff uncomfortable.

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Posted on the other site just how efficient red zone scoring was last week, which certainly contributed to the above-average scoring in Week 1:

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Here's a look at each matchup's spread through the eyes of the composite ratings (this is not betting advice):

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Week 2 NFL Composite Power Ratings! Sources: @espn.com (FPI) Robby Greerre (nfelo) @inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable) Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points) @ftnfantasy.com / @aaronschatz.com (DVOA) @profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Grain of salt because it's the Raiders D, but the Dolphins had 4 explosive passes on Sunday, 2 of which came from Caleb Douglas. Malik Willis has been one of the most efficient downfield passers the past couple years so think they gotta attack that more to generate explosives.

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Running back and team high-value touches (HVT):

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Breaking down team performance by various components, measured by total EPA (all components are measured in a way that positive EPA is better):

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Offensive and defensive success rates by down:

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Before I keep posting, I want to wish a very happy Chart Day to all who celebrate! I won't be posting every chart that I make on here, but you'll be able to find them all on my Substack in my weekly Hoppen to Conclusions article (including commentary)! Link to subscribe below!

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates for NFL games in Week 1:

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

2 games down, 14 more to go! I put together matchup previews for each of the remaining games in Week 1! You can see all of them on my Substack (🔗⤵️)!

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

How the game was won: 49ers vs. Rams The 49ers had their way on offense for most of the night, but more impressive may have been their defensive performance. The 41% pressure rate that SF had last night was better than any single-game pressure rate they had last year.

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Quick preview for tonight's game in Australia between the Rams and the 49ers! The 49ers' offense will be at full strength for the first time that anyone plays this daunting Rams defense. Excited to see what parts of the defense Shanahan targets and how effective they'll be!

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

How the game was won: Seahawks vs. Patriots Turnovers end up being the difference in a game where both teams showed plenty of inconsistency.

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Word on the street is we've got an NFL game tonight?? So, here's my matchup preview for our Super Bowl rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks! Will be fascinated to see how New England handles Seattle's pass rush tonight. Note: data is from 2025 season.

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Here's a look at each matchup's spread through the eyes of the composite ratings (this is not betting advice):

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Week 1 NFL Composite Power Ratings! Sources: @espn.com (FPI) Robby Greerre (nfelo) @inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable) Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points) @ftnfantasy.com/@aaronschatz.com (DVOA) @profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Just like that, my division preview series is done! Saving the NFC West for last, I covered: 🔴 How the Cardinals find success without competing 🟡 Why the 49ers are legit contenders 🔱 What keeps the Seahawks from repeating 🐏 The Rams' super team with super aspirations 🔗⤵️

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

This is elite work. Ran some sims and here's what we've got for some initial projections!

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

My penultimate division preview is here as I cover the NFC East: 🔵 Why I'm not buying into the Giants hype 🪖 How Jayden Daniels has covered up Washington's flaws 🤠 If the Cowboys' defense can live up to its billing 🦅 The Eagles' enigmatic offense 🔗⤵️

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Measuring pass-rush win rate for defensive ends on pass rush reps split between plays in which they were and were not stunting: Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Some Friday reading for you all - my NFC South division preview! I wrote about: 🐈‍⬛ Deciding on Bryce Young's future ⚜️ The Saints on the rise 🐦‍⬛ Speculation on how the Falcons will defend anyone 🏴‍☠️ A perfectly fine and average Bucs team 🔗⤵️

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Looking at how often teams use certain rush concepts along with how often they use them when they're running play action: Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

How defenses disguised their middle-of-the-field looks last year: Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

I've unlocked my NFC North preview so it's FREE for everyone to read - I covered: 🟣 The Vikings' wide range of outcomes 🐻 How much the Bears' defense will hurt them 🧀 The Packers' unsettling lack of depth 🦁 The importance of the Lions' offensive line 🔗⤵️

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Wrapping up the AFC side of my division previews with the AFC South! ⚔️ A mild improvement in Cam Ward's situation 🐴 Can the Colts reignite last year's fire? 🐆 Jacksonville running it back 🤠 Lofty expectations for the Texans 🔗⤵️

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

How often teams used man coverage when blitzing in 2025:

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

My division preview series rolls on with what'll be an extremely competitive AFC West! 🏴‍☠️ A new era of Raiders football ⚡️ The Chargers' young offense and old defense 🏹 What it'll take for the Chiefs to rebound 🐎 Jaylen Waddle gives Denver's offense the boost it needs 🔗⤵️

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

My AFC East preview is live on Hoppen to Conclusions! 🐬 It's tank szn in South Beach ✈️ Reasons for optimism in New York 🔴 Expectations in New England are back to Super Bowl contention 🦬 How DJ Moore's addition impacts the rest of the pass catchers 🔗⤵️

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Lots of focus on how Mike McDaniel is going to influence the Chargers' run game, but I'm equally interested to see how his tendencies change now that he doesn't have Hill/Waddle as his primary WRs.

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

I'm kicking off my division preview series with the AFC North! 🟠Cleveland looking towards the future 🟡One final ride for Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh 🐅Can Cincy get back to the postseason? 🐦‍⬛Sky-high expectations for the Ravens despite a first-time HC 🔗⤵️

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Starting Monday on Hoppen to Conclusions, I'll be rolling out my division previews. Each one will include: 📊Season simulations 🗓️Schedule outlooks 🔎Roster depth analysis ➕And MORE! Subscribe: samhoppen.substack.com

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Seeing live football back on the tv

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

My review of Spider-Man: Brand New Day

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Plenty of reason to be optimistic about the Patriots' running backs this year and having AJ Brown out wide should help reduce the box counts that both face. Both of them faced an above-average number of box defenders last year, so lowering that will increase their xYBC.

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Is yards before contact an offensive line stat? Less than we treat it like one. I took a deep dive on a stat that we may have been reading wrong, using a couple of different modeling techniques to explain why. You can read it FREE on my Substack 🔗⤵️

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Coming tomorrow on Hoppen to Conclusions: a deep dive into yards before contact. What influences it? How can teams differentiate themselves? Is it an offensive line stat? Subscribe below to get it sent straight to your inbox!

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Taking a look at which wide receivers have had the most diversity in their route deployment and pre-snap alignment over the past two seasons: Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Rushing scheme diversity doesn't always lead to rushing success, but the Cowboys did a really good job last year of mixing up the concepts they used while having a very solid running game:

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Which defenses last year were most likely to let their players line up and play the man across from them: Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

In just under a month we're hosting another Chicago Analytics Social! Come join plenty of us who have Never Played the Game for some drinks while we talk about analytical trends that may take over the NFL in 2026!

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

How last year's quarterbacks performed in and out of the pocket: Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Looking at rushing EPA allowed on non-QB carries based on the number of box defenders each defense used. Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

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Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Just got back from an incredible week in Colombia! Learned about the concept of permaculture, toured Medellín’s Comuna 13, ate some delicious meals, enjoyed some stunning views, and so much more! Would highly, highly recommend a trip down there to anyone.

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