iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

It would be nice if the OP mentioned the name of the person they’re talking about, wouldn’t it? Read the whole thread and a bunch of replies and still can’t tell.

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This is total nonsense. Did you just make that definition up? PPP is the only real way to compare the size of countries' economies. It's similar to adjusting for inflation in historical comparisons.

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That is total nonsense. Purchasing power parity is the only way to fairly compare the size of countries' economies. This isn't controversial.

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

As someone who painstakingly researched and wrote a paper over the course of three years using *zero* AI assistance (apart from debugging code) but which has twice been suspected as being AI-generated (possibly due to its length?), I very much support even a partially accurate AI-use measure.

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This could be said about the original post. You don't have to be a fan of Tucker Carlson or Russia (I'm neither) to acknowledge that the Russian economy is ~60% larger than the UK economy. This is not controversial. The widely accepted way to measure an economy's size is by purchasing power parity

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

This is wrong. Anyone semi-literate in economics knows the only serious way to measure the size of an economy is using purchasing power parity. Russia's economy is ~60% larger than the UK's. See World Bank & IMF figures below. No need to lie to make a case against the brutal Russian regime.

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

We've had zero SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Île-de-France since June 2 (and only 19 sequences since March 1, 2026), so it's hard to know exactly what's circulating there that might differ from other French regions.

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

No, I don't. It's definitely an interesting question though.

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Pretty sure it's also important that it's in a relatively narrow range which the upper-atmosphere is transparent to. pace.oceansciences.org/atmos_light....

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Had no idea how common dengue has become in Florida. Per the CDC, >1000 non-travel-associated US dengue cases in 2026, mostly Florida. A guy I ran cross-country with in high school lost a teenage daughter to dengue last year. Can't believe this isn't big news. www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-13...

microbe.tv

TWiV 1362: Clinical Update with Dr. Daniel Griffin

In his weekly clinical update, Daniel Griffin and Vincent Racaniello continue their ongoing exasperation over 5 deaths in Pennsylvania associated with measles infections, the absurdity of RFK Jr.’s st...

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Prediction market and sports gambling companies are the new tobacco companies. How long will we allow their depredations continue to destroy lives? Tobacco advertising was banned decades ago. Why are gambling ads permitted to stain every sports broadcast? It's sickening.

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

They ought to add a secondary measles death count that includes the predicted number of SSPE deaths—i.e. gradual destruction of a person's brain by a hypermutated, hyperfusogenic, persistent measles virus infection—that will occur years from now as a result of this outbreak bsky.app/profile/joho...

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

How in the world were they able to read each other's letters in those days? Totally illegible.

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Are you able to move everything out of the stock market? I've done this. I don't have much, but I put everything in a money market account until after the bubble pops. Seems foolish not to do something like this when there's clearly a massive AI bubble that could burst any day.

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H1N1 was a virtual no-show last winter as well, so I have to think waning immunity/larger-than-normal number of susceptibles is playing a role in the early H1N1 wave this year.

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Mutations in PJ.2.1 (and the lineages preceding it) relative to BA.2.86.

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Reminder of what PJ.2.1 is: bsky.app/profile/ryan...

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The Monarch Diaries @monarchdiaries.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Three PJ.2.1 just showed up in New South Wales, Australia. Collection dates Sept 8, 20, 21. PJ.2.1 makes up: 3/54 NSW sequences collected since Sept 8 2/7 NSW sequences collected since Sept 20 They look like three separate introductions. PJ.2.1's traveling well for sure.

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Reposted by Ryan Hisner

Great thread, why a H5N1 mink farm outbreak is a big red alert. When the 1918 flu virus genome was recovered I asked the late Bob Lamb, an eminent virologist, if this was a terrorism hazard. His answer: “Not unless they’ve got a lot of ferrets. Or a mink farm.”

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...but without much success. I think there's some evidence that selection in circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages is beginning to reflect T cell-escape pressure, so the relevance of these mutations may extend beyond persistent infections going forward. bsky.app/profile/ryan...

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Didn't know this existed. Am definitely interested in trying it out on the SARS-2 chronic-infection dataset I have. I've identified a number of clear CD8 T cell-escape mutation patterns but am interested in trying to find others if possible. Tried a different program (CD8scape) a while ago...

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I can't help but laugh when I see someone write that we need to reestablish American "leadership," whether they are talking about public health or international affairs. Has it ever occurred to these people that US "leadership" has been catastrophic and that the world would be better off without it?

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The paper this commentary is based on is, unfortunately, paywalled, so I haven't been able to read anything other than the abstract.

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Both of the graphs above are undercounts for two reasons: #1. RF.5.4.1, which has ORF1a:T1638N and ORF1b:T730I appears to be dominant or near-dominant in India, & we get very few sequences from India. #2. Graphs are based on open data, which includes zero India seqs—thanks to GISAID devilry.

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

By far the most commonly mutated CD8 T cell-epitope site in chronic infections is ORF1a:T1638, and mutations there are now far more common in circulating lineages than they ever have been. In one case (RF.5.4.1) it's paired with another major HLA*01:01 escape mutation: ORF1b:T730I.

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Saw my doctor two weeks ago and he said he'd already had four patients test positive for influenza A. (I live in Indiana.) I'm guessing this will be a big H1N1 year given the near total lack of H1N1 wave last year? It's all H1N1 so far according to syndromictrends.com

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Reposted by Ryan Hisner

Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Globally since August, PJ.2.1 showed a growth advantage of 4.5% per day (32% per week) over XFG.*, which predicts a crossover in late October. 🧵

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

There could hardly be a clearer example of a public good than scientific publications. Government funding and open access ought to be a no-brainer. 1% of the military budget ought to be sufficient. Unfortunately, killing foreigners a much higher priority in the US than advancing knowledge.

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Reposted by Ryan Hisner

Thijs Kuiken @thijskuiken.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Regarding discussions about fur farming, see also recent opinion article in the Lancet Regional Europe: bsky.app/profile/fla-...

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

An excellent question. 4 years ago an activist freed ~40,000 mink from a farm 15-20 miles from where I live. I had no idea the farm existed, but it was one of the largest mink farms in N America. It's no longer a mink farm. So apparently not super profitable either? www.wane.com/top-stories/...

wane.com

Tens of thousands of mink sprung from Van Wert County farm

A suspect or suspects destroyed fencing at Lion Farms in Hoaglin Township and released 25,000-40,000 mink from their cages.

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Totally agree. The animal welfare and pandemic threat arguments each, on their own, provide more than sufficient reason for abolishing the mink fur industry. Maddening that such an infernal industry is suffered to exist.

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‘Incredibly concerning’: Bird flu outbreak at Spanish mink farm triggers pandemic fears

"At mink farms, thousands of such solitary carnivores are forced to live together, creating ideal conditions for the avian virus to adapt to mammals. 'It’s a human construct,' @thijskuiken.bsky.social says." From 2023 story by @kakape.bsky.social at @science.org www.science.org/content/arti...

science.org

Spread among captive mink could give the H5N1 strain opportunities to evolve and adapt to mammals

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"Fur farming...allows for rapid spread of viruses with pandemic potential—& for virus adaptation to animals that would be unlikely to occur in nature.... Mink, more so than any other farmed species, pose a risk for the emergence of future disease outbreaks & the evolution of future pandemics." 3/4

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Mink farming poses risks for future viral pandemics | PNAS

...with no bio-safety controls, w/researchers & officials displaying no urgency to stop it. People would rightly be outraged, and there would be a media firestorm. The media response here: crickets. Re: the risk, see excellent piece by @peacockflu.bsky.social. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

pnas.org

Mink farming poses risks for future viral pandemics

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Federico Gueli @siamosolocani.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Mink farming is a massive pandemic risk. It's insane that they are allowed to exist. Now we have an active H5N1 outbreak on a mink farm, & "state officials have no clear plan to rein it in." Imagine if uncontrolled H5N1 transmission in mink were allowed in a research lab...

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Reposted by Ryan Hisner

This is a milestone paper. Read it and read the 3D that makes everyone able to access very difficult informations. Congrats to @turville.bsky.social for this giant 4-5years long work.

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Phenomenal 🧵 (& paper) about why Omicron is less efficient at infecting the lung than previous variants. Initial ideas on this were proven wrong, & it's been an utter mystery since. Stuart, doing work on one else is doing, has largely explained it & revealed vital aspects of the SARS-2 life cycle.

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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Later in the day, 12 additional PJ.2.1 sequences were uploaded from New York, making a total of 21 on the day. 14/94 (14.9%) sequences from New York collected since September 10 have been PJ.2.1. No additional A475V sequences, though 4 NY sequences lack coverage at 475.

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Pretty certain that's not the case in the US, though I don't know about the issue in any detail.

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So the silver lining, I suppose, is that I won't have to go through the whole review process at all if it gets desk-rejected a couple more times.

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Starting to wonder if the paper is just too long, so nobody wants to read it. Frankly, I probably wouldn't want to read it if my job was to filter submissions. I'd sooner leave it forever on @biorxiv.bsky.social than submit to an MDPI journal or something.

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I wonder if AI-generated submissions also lead to legitimate, non-AI papers being dismissed at a glance for being AI suspicious. I wonder if this has happened to the main paper I've worked on for 3-4 years. Got rejected by biorxiv first, then desk rejected for no stated reason by a journal last week

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Thanks for the background, Fede. With its relatively open RBD, I think PJ.2.1, I think PJ.2.1 may stand to benefit more from this mutation than previous variants did.

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