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Reposted by Rustie

The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Out this morning via the newsletter: an introductory write up on polls, whether to trust them, and how we use them in our modelling. theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

If this Verian poll is accurate then the next RoyMo is gonna hit like crack. Greens on 20, Labour on 24.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

1News-Verian poll versus our benchmark (consensus average + Verian's house effect). Very good (or very rogue) poll for the Greens, good for ACT. Bad for National, others about par.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Everyone who's paid to sit at a keyboard is a handloom weaver they just don't know it yet.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

All is an overstatement, but we're not just competing with other people with gatekept qualifications anymore: we're competing with an automated system that's a fraction of the cost and never threatens to form a union.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Oh they absolutely do. They're grinding down everything that isn't the pension (even th motorways now) in a desperate effort to stay afloat. It's not enough but at least they try. As so the Greens and Opportunity (but via realistic tax programmes).

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Oh I'm sure but I don't expect anything of them. At least they pretend the deficit is real.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

If I squint maybe there's a case for socialising the loss on the basis that anyone who went to uni before ~2024 just has bad moral luck. But again, priorities.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The party just aren't living in reality. They think it's still 2019. Or 2005.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

1) With what fucking money? 2) How are grads your top priority? 3) Why are you encouraging people to go to university right as those qualifications lose all market value?

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I'm not going to vote National but that student loan policy shows how unready Labour are for government. Completely unserious and not up to the task.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Model vs poll: Hutt South - Victor Consulting poll. Pretty bad poll for both National and their #3. Incumbent 🔵Chris Bishop polling significantly worse (-13pp) than our estimate. 🔴Andersen a little worse (-4pp) with expectations, 🟢White doing better (+4pp).

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I was just confused why Labour and Green candidates were participating in events that raise money for their enemies.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Worth noting those debates are paid ticketed events too.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Local government whenever someone tries amalgamating them:

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Planning to put out a proper explainer and def welcome feedback (still a former polsci student who is nervous he's bullshitting the statistics).

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Volatility term (potential change now to the election) includes correlations for movement between parties and has fat tails (df 4 and 3 for Opp) in case there's An Event on top of regular drift.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Time (linear decay to 0 weight at 60 days) and sample-size weighted average of house-effect adjusted polls. Then a Monte Carlo simulation for the election, with error terms for sample, volatility, and the trend-vs-election.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Largely the same analysis as last week, but a longer form write-up of the state of the polls at the start of the campaign proper is out now: theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/september-...

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I will be mildly annoyed if this leads to.an end to the TPU-Curia poll because the only other outfit that publishes that frequently is Roy Morgan.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Best case is we get two off-setting overhangs and they do something to close the loophole.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Personally strongly against both. It's cheating. It's a structural vulnerability in the design of MMP we've been lucky to avoid. TPM's attempt is worse because I expect better of the left, but also because if it triggers tit-for-tat, the right will come out ahead.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Finally back to doing regular updates. A lot of you won't like it though.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Big part of this will be the firms' house effects? Especially Roy Morgan (2% higher than the all-firm average).

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Model versus poll comparison, this time for Wellington Bays. Incumbent Julie Ann Genter polling 8pp worse than our estimate (41 vs 34). Labour challenger Craig Renney in line with expectations (34). National's Karunā Muthu 3pp up (14 vs 17).

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

A target so small voters can't even see it.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Preparing the youth for an inhuman future.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Getting so mad you can't get the joke out.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Mine doesn't have that because I handcrafted this in Photoshop like God intended.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Upsetting that the Minister and I thought of the same joke. Despite our differences we share millennial cringe. (Although surprised his parents let him watch it tbh).

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Proposal is good or whatever but they missed an opportunity with the spelling:

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

The Greens got second best in 2017 because Labour (accurately) assessed the Greens wouldn't torpedo the coalition and NZ First would.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Yes. But which options are available to a minor party depends on their negotiating position. ACT and NZF first could insist on a coalition and Cabinet seats because they have a veto on the continued existence of the govt, and National assumed they were willing to exercise it.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Of course that only matters if you think a (realistic) Parliament with them is better than one without them.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Spotless take. Only thing I'd add is there is a tactical logic to voting for Op if they're polling ~5%. A marginal vote for Labour or the Greens at best gives them an additional seat. The most powerful vote you can cast is the one that tips a party from 4.9999% to 5.0000%.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Gotta watch it as a pair with the Ned Beaty monologue tho. God, Network is such a classic.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Big one for a coup. Shiny one for a tough interview with Tova.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

So like does he get a bead for every one he survives? Like those kids with cancer get for chemo rounds?

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

National's coup plotters.

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CEO Johnny Cans @oldmatecans.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

They've set up a lectern and microphone in the hope of luring a new Prime Minister into the drop-trap.

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

So the line from Labour should just be "Congratulations to _____ ________ on their election as Winston's deputy."

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

"You come at the king, you can actually miss and it's fine. Do it twice even."

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Rustie @rustie.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

If he survives he's gotta put at least two, maybe three heads on pikes right? Pour (des)encourager les autres.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Late delivery in your inboxes now. Read it this morning before it's irrelevant. Why is this happening and will it work? theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

As the article rightly points out, local polling (especially when party-affiliated) should be treated with skepticism. That said, it's useful for sense checking our electorate modelling. www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/3610...

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