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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Model vs poll: Mt Albert Spinoff-Curia poll showing a much closer candidate race here, but in all honesty our candidate model here is four guesses in a trenchcoat.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Model vs poll - Te Tai Tonga Candidate vote reasonably aligned except for 🟢Te Morenga who's 5pp down on our expectations. Given the candidate model here is 🤷"I guess Ferris will do about the same as Harawira averaged"🤷 that's not so bad.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Model vs poll: Te Tai Hauāuru 🟠Ngarewa-Packer (-9pp) behind where we'd expect, with 🔴Kātene (+4pp) and 🔵Raukawa +6pp. Other candidates are also higher (+4pp), but so far none have been announced. Both agree Ngarewa-Packer remains well ahead.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

1News-Verian poll versus our benchmark (consensus average + Verian's house effect). Very good (or very rogue) poll for the Greens, good for ACT. Bad for National, others about par.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

An uncertainty that's been bugging me when analysing the candidate vote: what are NZ First voters going to do. Over the Key-Ardern years the persistently preferred Labour candidates over National ones. In 2023, that reverted to an earlier norm of supporting National candidates.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Model vs poll: West Coast-Tasman No incumbent (and the first contest in 33 years not to feature Damian O'Connor). 🔵Milne (-4pp) and 🔴Patterson (-6pp) both a bit behind expectations. ⚫Cleine (+9pp) doing better.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Model vs poll: Hutt South - Victor Consulting poll. Pretty bad poll for both National and their #3. Incumbent 🔵Chris Bishop polling significantly worse (-13pp) than our estimate. 🔴Andersen a little worse (-4pp) with expectations, 🟢White doing better (+4pp).

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Largely the same analysis as last week, but a longer form write-up of the state of the polls at the start of the campaign proper is out now: theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/september-...

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Reposted by The Overhang

The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Polling update for September. Parliament sits for the final time this week and the campaign proper begins, so this is where we're starting from

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Polling update for September. Parliament sits for the final time this week and the campaign proper begins, so this is where we're starting from

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Model versus poll comparison, this time for Wellington Bays. Incumbent Julie Ann Genter polling 8pp worse than our estimate (41 vs 34). Labour challenger Craig Renney in line with expectations (34). National's Karunā Muthu 3pp up (14 vs 17).

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Late delivery in your inboxes now. Read it this morning before it's irrelevant. Why is this happening and will it work? theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

As the article rightly points out, local polling (especially when party-affiliated) should be treated with skepticism. That said, it's useful for sense checking our electorate modelling. www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/3610...

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

In 2023, three seats were decided by overseas special votes: Nelson, Mt Albert, and Tāmaki Makaurau. Also happened to be the three closest races. Only 3% of total votes, but can get as high as 8% in inner-urban seats like Wellington Central or Mt Albert.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

Now out via the newsletter: the final exhaustive (and exhausting) analysis of the effects of the 2025 boundary review on electorate contests. theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

In your inboxes now: a brief and slight self-indulgent preview of the Wellington City Council race this weekend. theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...

theoverhangaonz.substack.com

The Overhang: Wellington Special Edition

A brief, belated, and not especially rigorous preview and analysis of the Wellington City local elections.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

Of interest heading into this weekend's local elections: ward-level estimates of the 2023 general election party vote. Interactive version here: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...

public.flourish.studio

All wards

A Flourish data visualization by The Overhang

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

Auckland City Council ballot returns, as of Tuesday 7th October. 18% back as of today. Tracking lower than any previous year.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

Wellington City Council ballot returns, as of Monday 6th October. 21% back as of yesterday. Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.

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Reposted by The Overhang

The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

New piece via The Overhang newsletter: Halfway(ish). This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically. tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse. theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...

Phots of Norman Kirk, Jim Bolger, and Chris Luxon facing Chris Hipkins, Mike Moore, and Jack Marshall, superimposed on an illustrative bar graph of blue and red bars.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

NZ polling update: December 2024 We're back! National (33%) hold a reasonable lead over Labour (30%). Figures for ACT (10%), NZ First (6%), the Greens (11%) and TPM (6%) give the right a 3% lead over the left. TOP are on 2.4%. Other right-wing parties on 1.5% combined.

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The Overhang @overhang-aonz.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

Kia ora. Setting up the Aotearoa politics data store here too. Content to follow in due course.

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