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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 3h

The Global North has emitted most of the CO2 that started Climate becoming inhospitable. Also, the tropics are warming less rapidly than higher latitudes. BUT EACH El Niño cycle threatens to cross metabolic limits for more regions.

As climate warms, the temperatures in a region experience greater variability. The variability increases (flattening the curve count of days at different temperatures.) BUT, the warming means the whole curve shifts to the right. This vastly increases the number of hot days, increases the number of days setting new records, and begins adding days with temperatures (and humidity if near bodies of water) that were previously unimaginable.

The El Niño year of 2024 was brutally hot in the tropics. Averaging in the lower temperatures of the air over oceans hides the fact that heat waves occurred in 2024 that had heat index readings over 33ºC (90ºF) as nighttime lows for weeks in a row.
Charting 2027 will surely require expanding the "Y" axis to report in this graphic. What will be the experience of people (often poor people) who live and work in the tropics during the heatwaves ahead?

2026 Already saw tens of thousands dying from heatwaves in Europe and N. America.
If some tropical regions already stayed so hot, 24/7 in 2024 - will 2026 be the year that kills hundreds of thousands or millions, like in the novel "The Ministry For The Future" ??

Currently, the risk of heat/ humidity is limited in locations and duration, but the risk increases - and not just for the elderly.
In a very rough estimate, over 6 billion people (75% of the Earth's 8 billion people) live near the equator in regions that will have weeks (growing to months) that will become too hot to live in without access to shelters that provide cooling. What affects people will also affect their crops.
Migration from these areas will be an unwelcome choice forced upon ten if not hundreds of millions of people.

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 3h

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

Marc Elias @marcelias.bsky.social · 17h

🚨BREAKING: DOJ’s demand that California investigate and block ballots from 20,000 people it alleges could be noncitizens may violate a court order barring the department from unilaterally attempting to shape state voter rolls and keep voters from the ballot. www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...

democracydocket.com

DOJ's California lawsuit may violate court order against Trump's voter roll crusade, voting groups warn

After the DOJ sued California, pro-voting groups say the Trump administration may be violating a court order that bars the DOJ from unilaterally attempting to shape state voter rolls.

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

The Tennessee Holler @thetnholler.bsky.social · 8h

This is awesome. If your vote didn’t matter Republicans wouldn’t be trying so hard to stop you.

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 7h

Easier to apply an remove than the children's molding clay we used from the inside as water was rising. 👍👍

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 9h

People don't want to look. It is too disruptive of their lives to face how dire our biosphere's predicament. They don't want to face what our life style will cost the next generation. Most prefer to believe they will dodge the consequences.

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 18h

What corporations don't want people to know will kill us: "Climate change results in more severe and more frequent weather-related disasters, which damage and destroy home and business property and contribute to record insurance-company losses." The Guardian shows an example of short sighted greed.

yalelawjournal.org

The Uninsurable Future: The Climate Threat to Property Insurance, and How to Stop It | Yale Law Journal

Property insurance availability is threatened by climate change. Deregulating insurance markets is not the solution. Stopping insurers’ financial...

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 18h

yalelawjournal.org

The Uninsurable Future: The Climate Threat to Property Insurance, and How to Stop It | Yale Law Journal

Property insurance availability is threatened by climate change. Deregulating insurance markets is not the solution. Stopping insurers’ financial...

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Human societal collapse has many historical precedents. The open QUESTION: HOW LONG before it happens? Climate, population, food, energy, societal issues of cohesiveness and planetary boundary reports are all trending towards collapse. Extinction has a separate set of odds. bsky.app/profile/rudy...

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Winning the Nov. election will be a win for facts, science, medicine, ... and kinder governance. GOOD! BUT people are still expecting a return to past prosperity. Democrats won't hold power long until people face OVERSHOOT as our predicament. We are a species living beyond the means of our environs.

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Prof. Eliot Peterson's conversation here expresses well the climate situation. I'll add that the strong swings in politics today stem from people not accepting that a major societal change is needed. The parties mostly differ in the wealth layer of people they most coddle. rss.com/podcasts/env...

rss.com

A Moronocene Enviro Show | The Enviro Show | RSS.com

Greetings Earthlings. Awhile ago we humans here on Planet Earth figured out we need a new title to explain the epoch we have entered into.

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

rss.com

A Moronocene Enviro Show | The Enviro Show | RSS.com

Greetings Earthlings. Awhile ago we humans here on Planet Earth figured out we need a new title to explain the epoch we have entered into.

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

"This is no longer a warning for the future; it is a diagnosis of the present. Earth’s life-support systems are being pushed beyond stable limits, with changes unfolding faster than our ability to respond." Midst gloom, authors suggest signs of societal shift to a new clean-energy era, and these ...

Fast-track adaptation measures can reduce near-term climate risks while also providing mitigation or ecosystem co-benefits. Their effectiveness is expected to decline as warming intensifies.
This table of ideas from:
The 2026 state of the climate report: challenges and opportunities
BioScience, biag125, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biag125
Published: 14 October 2026

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

By the time things get apocalypticaly bad that humans agree to seek systemic effective change of society, it will assuredly be too late to avoid societal collapse, likely also a trophic collapse of the biosphere. Good conversation about the Moronocene. rss.com/podcasts/env...

Species persist by supporting each other in a web of life. The interdependencies can also be seen as a house of cards. Extinctions by some species risks a trophic collapse.

Apocaloptimist - (n) someone who knows it's all going to shit, but still thinks it will turn out okay.
i.e. NOT a realist.
By the time things get apocalypticaly bad that humans agree to seek systemic effective change of society, it will assuredly be too late to avoid societal collapse, likely also a trophic collapse of the biosphere.

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 14/10/2026

The preliminary Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature for October 13 just broke 30°C for the third time, and is now 3.3°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. This marks the 22nd consecutive daily temperature above the previous all-time record high of 29.815°C. set on Nov. 17, 2015.

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

🌀 Florida Can’t Get A Break! 🌀 11 Hurricanes in 11 Years! Here’s the crazy part… 10 of those hit the Gulf Coast! Coincidence? Cycle? Maybe… we’ve seen that before. But there may be a more scientific reason. Hear me out…

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

M Meerkat @kackbro.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Let's Try Bernie's Way.......

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

1.5ºC in 2028 will need a strong La Niña. bsky.app/profile/rudy...

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

4fuxake @blueheartedly1.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

We need to ban data centers.

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Computer hallucination must be avoided! Across the Earth system, AI prediction capabilities are also advancing faster than our collective ability to verify them. The gap between forecast skill and physical trustworthiness is felt across climate prediction, ocean modeling, and atmospheric science."

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

An incredible deep-dive must-read for California! The ECMWF ensemble says most coastal CA locations have ~10-20% risk of a record-wet winter. King tides will be >1-2' above normal, and a strong storm during the king tides could "produce widespread damaging, and probably historic, coastal flooding."

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

It’s bad enough that Gavin Newsom opposes California’s Prop 40. But he also supports Prop 42, a billionaire-backed poison pill that would cancel out Prop 40 entirely and make it impossible to enact future wealth taxes. It’s clear whose side he’s on. Remember this in 2028.

commondreams.org

Newsom Endorses Ballot Measure That Would Cancel Out Billionaire Tax—and Ban Future Wealth Taxes | Common Dreams

"He’d rather millions of children and families lose their healthcare than ask a couple hundred billionaires to finally p

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 13/10/2026

Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today: "Scientists are coming under pressure from some petro-states and major developing countries to delay publication of a key global report on the climate, despite pleas from vulnerable countries worried that postponement could spell disaster for them."

theguardian.com

IPCC is under pressure to delay publication of key global climate report

AR7 report was scheduled for 2028 in time for Cop33 summit but some petro-states and major developing countries want to postpone it

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

M Meerkat @kackbro.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Heather Cox Richardson Is Spot On......

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

ECMWF had to change the color scheme to capture this El Niño.

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

4fuxake @blueheartedly1.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Let's do it 👇

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Jeff Berardelli posted Extrapolating this accelerated rate projects a crossing of the 1.5°C threshold by 2028, nearly a decade earlier than previous estimates. www.nature.com/articles/s41... But confusion exists because the 1.5ºC Paris Accord never defined the metric. I agree with Prof Eliot below

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

As others have pointed out, the confusion exists only because the 1.5ºC boundary was never defined. Abundant data exist using various metrics, which Prof. Eliot Jacobson explains in his video. I highlight these 2 images in my post. bsky.app/profile/rudy... video at youtu.be/dhDmOt7B_v8?...

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Jan, the warming is demonstrably faster bsky.app/profile/rudy...

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Prof Jacobson gathers and tracks source data to present it in meaningful ways. I annotated his video commentary onto the dot graph of monthly temperature anomalies record. Both graphs show that Earth has already passed the 1.5ºC that the Paris Accord warned was ideally avoided. 2ºC by 2037/38.

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Thanks for highlighting this study.

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

This study warns of high risks from ECS & feedback loop uncertainties not yet sufficiently studied. "Only a few ESMs have the ability to simulate CH4 interactively, the long-term impacts of potentially significant carbon cycle feedbacks from permafrost or wetlands have not been accounted for."

Positive feedbacks (self-reinforcing cycles) within the climate system have the potential to accelerate human-induced climate change and even shift the Earth's climate system.

The two parts of this illustration have been around for a decade. On the left is a 2017 report, on the right an illustration of some feedback loops.

Though long warned about uncertainties in future human behavior, the value of Climate Sensitivity, and computational cost of millennial forecasting have left these risks largely unquantified.

The interplay between potentially high ECS and carbon cycle feedbacks could drastically enhance future warming, demonstrating the importance of properly accounting for all major climate feedbacks and associated uncertainties in projecting future climate change.
Although some modelling studies have examined the impact of equilibrium climate sensitivity and climate–carbon cycle feedbacks on climate projections, few have focused on systematically examining the climate evolution beyond 2100 CE. This scarcity is largely due to the high computational costs of Earth system models (ESMs), which have otherwise disregarded or simplified long-term processes (i.e. marine sediment dynamics and chemical rock weathering) that are marginally significant for centennial timescales. Instead, ESMs prioritize short-term processes which are important for the centennial time scales targeted by the IPCC.

Figure 3. Changes in annual mean near surface air temperature at selected timeslices relative to the pre-industrial period under the SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4 and SSP2-4.5 emisson scenarios and different ECS conditions. (a)–(c) Peak warming around year 2300 CE, (d)–(i) remaining temperature increase by the end of the current millennium for (a)–(f) ECS = 3 ∘C and (g)–(i) ECS = 5 ∘C. Magenta lines (a)–(i) display the annual maximum sea ice extent, whereas cyan lines (a)–(i) display the permafrost area. Zonal mean temperature changes (j)–(l) are additionally shown for SSP1-2.6 (blue), SSP4-3.4 (yellow), and SSP2-4.5 (red) across the rows. Contour intervals and colorbar are nonlinear as to provide visual clarity of small temperature changes.

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Reposted by Rudy Sovinee

Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Human societal collapse has many historical precedents. The QUESTION IS HOW LONG before it happens. Climate, population, food, energy, societal issues of cohesiveness and planetary boundary reports are all trending towards collapse. Extinction has a separate set of odds. bsky.app/profile/rudy...

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Can civilization as we know it survive without radical transformation? Rupert Read points out that while some are benefiting from providing fossil fuel energy, NO ONE is benefiting from from the climate extremes arriving. He's selling that people will change behavior. HOPIUM! youtu.be/ocpTV62fUQs

youtu.be

The Biggest El Niño in History I Path to Collapse I Climate Crisis & Heatwaves I Difficult Future

YouTube video by Science Talk

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 10/10/2026

The October runs for dynamical El Niño models are now all out, and its a mixed bag. Some revise the event downward, some upward, but on average its still expected to peak at ~4C, albeit with the peak more likely to occur in December than November:

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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Coastal water levels in SoCal are running ~1.5' above normal because of a record-strength El Niño. Rachel's battering waves on top of these elevated waters are likely to cause significant coastal damage during Sunday morning's high tide, with all-time top-10 water levels at San Diego and L.A.

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4fuxake @blueheartedly1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

No American should have to walk past soldiers to vote!

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