iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Rosanna Smart

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 29/07/2025

This paper looks important!! www.nber.org/papers/w3407... #Econsky #FinSky

Rosanna Smart @rosannasmart.bsky.social · 19/07/2025

More incredible work by this team, plus the ability to explore these data on credit scores (Look at those geographic patterns! Perhaps not surprising but still striking) and more here: www.opportunityatlas.org

opportunityatlas.org

The Opportunity Atlas

Map the childhood roots of social mobility

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Rosanna Smart @rosannasmart.bsky.social · 13/04/2025

Aha, I learned the perfect new word to practice using for day 2 of potty training the kiddo

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Walter Olson @walterolson.bsky.social · 12/04/2025

L.A. imposed a so-called mansion tax on real estate transactions > $5 million. Surprise! It covers, and has helped to depress, multifamily residential -- i.e., apartment construction -- along with commercial and industrial. Revenues are less than half expected. [@uclalewiscenter.bsky.social]

latimes.com

Contributor: L.A.'s 'mansion tax' needs a remodel. Here's how to fix it

New research shows just how serious the unintended consequences of Measure ULA have been for Los Angeles.

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Wendy Y. Li @wendyyli.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

Today, it’s hard for me to look anywhere else besides what’s happening to our health agencies. US capacity for public health, regulation, research & development, research, etc. is being gutted in real time. www.reddit.com/r/DeptHHS/s/...

reddit.com

From the DeptHHS community on Reddit

Explore this post and more from the DeptHHS community

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jeeyon shim 심지연 @jeeyon.bsky.social · 28/03/2025

The funding for these long COVID research grants was given back bc disability activists urged us to contact our reps persistently, in high volume, and we did. Remember that these tactics work the next time someone tries to get you to passively react instead of taking an active part in organizing!

This returned funding is a rare win for Long COVID advocates and researchers amid a climate of fear and uncertainty. Earlier in the week, the Trump administration ordered the closure of the federal government's Office of Long COVID Research and Practice as part of a wider restructuring of health agencies, and last month, it terminated a federal advisory_committee on Long_COVID.

Long COVID advocates stepped up to contact their representatives and advocate for RECOVER funding and other federal Long COVID initiatives to remain in place. While the research program's broader future remains uncertain, these restored grants are a significant milestone, said RECOVER patient representative Megan Fitzgerald.

"This is so significant because it allows critical studies to better understand how Long COVID affects the body, identify treatment targets, and develop new therapies," she wrote in an email to The Sick Times.
"I'm especially relieved as a parent that this reinstates really important funding for studies in kids. And I think we can all breathe a little easier knowing that all the hard work of patients and researchers over the last few years won't go to waste."

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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

New, from me: Trump is whitewashing American history, removing not just people, but also the stories, images, and values to anyone who does not conform to his impoverished vision of America. Here is a partial inventory. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/whitewashi...

donmoynihan.substack.com

Whitewashing American history

The Trump Presidency as a project of erasure

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Nicole Tersigni @nicsigni.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

you’re fired. wait you’re rehired. email us a list of things you’ve done today wait forget it you’re fired again. come back your job was important. you’re fired. or hired. come in to the office. wait the office has no computers go home. we are the department of government efficiency.

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Anil Dash @anildash.com · 01/03/2025

I had a front row seat to watch 18F get started a dozen years ago by some of the smartest and most dedicated public servants I’ve ever met. Their work saved countless lives, and yes, hundreds of millions, probably billions, of dollars. But just as significantly: it made government more responsive.

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Richard M. Carpiano, PhD, MPH @rmcarpiano.medsky.social · 28/02/2025

Been teaching @rand.org's useful Truth Decay framework for many yrs now in my Public Policy Ethics courses in a unit on policy discourse. If ever the consequences of diminished reliance on facts & analysis in public life for undermining govt institutions and decision-making were evident, it's now...

rand.org

Declining Trust in Facts and Institutions Imposes Costs on Society

“Truth Decay” is the diminishing reliance on facts and analysis in American public life. It has many damaging consequences: the erosion of civil discourse, political paralysis, alienation and disengag...

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Sydney Gordon @sydneyg.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Well that's my cue. ✨NEW WP✨ What happens when SSA downsizes field office staff, even if the offices stay open? Fewer people end up enrolled for benefits. 🧵

Employee Exodus: The Impact of Government Downsizing on
Benefit Access
Sydney Gordon
Last Updated: February 26, 2025
Abstract
The U.S. Social Security Administration is responsible for administering retirement, disability, and low-income safety net programs to approximately 64 million people, supported by their
network of field offices providing in-person customer service. While closing field offices has been shown to decrease take-up for disability benefit applicants, it may be enticing to instead reduce
costs by keeping offices open but reducing staffing levels. I use employee microdata in the context
of a period of exogenous, drastic staffing decreases during the Reagan administration and analyze the impacts across the various programs that SSA administrates. Using a long differences approach, I find that a 10% decrease in field office employees in a county led to a 0.06% decrease
in benefits enrollment for OASDI and 0.32% decrease in supplemental security insurance (SSI) enrollment, driven primarily by disability beneficiaries and low-income old-age SSI beneficiaries. I find no significant impact on traditional retirement benefits but a marginally significant impact on old-age SSI benefits, suggesting OASDI has a lower administrative burden or recipients pursue alternative methods of interacting with the agency. I do back-of-the-envelope calculations
to determine the total effect size and find that the downsizing translates to a shortfall of 79,027 people nationally (47,285 OASDI, 31,742 SSI) who counterfactually would have enrolled by the end of this period. I then propose a new measure of administrative cost per marginal beneficiary
to benchmark across welfare programs.

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Rosanna Smart @rosannasmart.bsky.social · 21/02/2025

Maybe I was naive, but the levels of “anticipatory censoring” and overcompliance I’ve seen over the past month have infuriated and devastated me. I hope shining light and pushing back on it can force change (or a hard conversation)

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Rosanna Smart @rosannasmart.bsky.social · 15/02/2025

Good points. I’m not sure whether or what messaging might cut through, but the relative lack of outrage among policymakers about the potential dismantling of our country’s scientific infrastructure means we should clarify the potential consequences on all fronts.

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 13/02/2025

I had a very insightful conversation with one of my colleagues about the nature of indirects on NIH grants. He pointed out that indirects are like a two-part tariff, helping defray fixed costs in a non-distortive way. 1/

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Beth Popp Berman @epopppp.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

This excellent piece by @chrisgeidner.bsky.social picks apart the precise extent to which the rule of law is holding. It is realistic about the stakes, but argues that the Rubicon has not been crossed -- and we need to fight to keep it that way.

lawdork.com

Don't let Donald Trump and Elon Musk talk us out of democracy

Trump and Musk are testing the limits, trying to sell America on being an authoritarian state — but they can’t do it unless we allow them to do so.

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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 09/02/2025

New from me: The deferred resignation offer expires on Monday. An open letter from a federal employee as they decide their future, plus thoughts and insights about the damage being done from other public servants. Please read, and share. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-forced...

donmoynihan.substack.com

The Forced Fork and the Choice to Stay

Hearing from federal government employees as they make sense of their future

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Rosanna Smart @rosannasmart.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

Informative and frightening discussion of the recent NIH directive to cap overhead at 15%. Although I admittedly still don’t fully understand my org’s own indirects, this gets me way closer to understanding the big picture.

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Ben Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

This comments section is the first time I've felt even a shred of hope in eight days.

reddit.com

From the fednews community on Reddit

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Hank Green @hankgreen.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

Everything you know about wrinkly fingers is probably wrong. Particularly, it is not a physical act of water on the body, it is a neurological effect of the body on itself. People who have fingers with severed nerves do not prune on those fingers.

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Rosanna Smart @rosannasmart.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

Interesting to read this piece alongside our recently published study trying to detail the timing of precisely when (firearm) homicides started to deviate from expectation (hint: before 2020!). journals.lww.com/epidem/abstr...

journals.lww.com

The recent rise in homicide: An analysis of weekly... : Epidemiology

nded with these key events. We investigated trends in firearm and non-firearm homicide across sociodemographic and geographic groups to clarify the timing and nature of the recent increase. Methods: ...

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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

Look at how physicians diagnose more children with ADHD on Halloween (the red line in the middle of the figure). The authors hypothesize that docs are more likely to diagnose kids on this day simply because kids are excited for Halloween. Fascinating! www.nber.org/papers/w33232

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Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

For this week I went deep into the archives to create a short history of agencies reporting (and not reporting) crime data to the FBI to show how our national crime estimates have always been flawed (and frequently more flawed than they are now). jasher.substack.com/p/national-c...

jasher.substack.com

National Crime Data Has Always Been Flawed

None of these problems are new.

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Chris Uggen @chrisuggen.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

New! Randomized control trial of New Orleans program finds that sectoral career training in high-demand fields (mfg, health, infotech) significantly reduced likelihood of rearrest. [S Anwar, M Baird, J Engberg, @rosannasmart.bsky.social @ RAND in J of Human Resources] jhr.uwpress.org/content/earl...

Kaplan Meier Survival Curves for No Arrests Post-Randomization showing clear separation between control and treatment groups, with a 22% chance of first-year rearrest in the control group relative to a 10% chance of first-year rearrest in treatment group.

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Jennifer Doleac @jenniferdoleac.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Spent this evening thinking and talking about the late Mark Kleiman’s contributions to criminal justice policy thinking, and how relevant his insights still are today. Huge thanks to @niskanencenter.bsky.social for bringing this terrific group together.

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Rosanna Smart @rosannasmart.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Left: books I’ve tried (and failed) to read in the past 4+ months Right: books I’ve read 40+ times in the past 4 weeks

Two stacks of books. On the left, Galapagos, Blood Gun Money, Why We Remember, Choice & Consequence, How to make hand drawn maps. On the right, Dance Dance Little Pookie, Things that go, cars and trucks and things that go, The Little engine that could, giraffes can’t dance, little blue truck

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Rosanna Smart @rosannasmart.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

As a former lurker on the other place, I benefited a lot from people sharing interesting intellectual or purely entertaining content. I hope to be more of a contributor vs just consumer here (but no promises!)

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