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Robin Ryder

@robinryder.bsky.social
981 followers 131 following 129 posts

Mathematician at Imperial College London. Bayesian statistics, Data science, Languages, Phylogenies.

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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Many thanks to ISBA for taking a stand and for their support!
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Call for posters is open until 16 October. Registration (only 70€) is open until 20 November. bayesforshs3.sciencesconf.org?lang=en
bayesforshs3.sciencesconf.org
Bayesian Methods for the Social Sciences III - Sciencesconf.org
Sciencesconf.org
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The last two events in this series (Paris 2022, Amsterdam 2024) were a great success and I'm really looking forward to this conference.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Day 1: tutorials on * Bayesian methods in Political Science * Bayesian methods for pairwise and ranked data * High-dimensional Bayesian model selection Days 2 and 3: research talks and posters. Networks! Demography! Causal inference!
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The event will bring together statisticians, mathematicians and social scientists around the theme of Bayesian statistical methods for the social sciences.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Conference: Bayesian Methods for the Social Sciences III, Dublin, 9-11 December 2026. Join us! bayesforshs3.sciencesconf.org
bayesforshs3.sciencesconf.org
Bayesian Methods for the Social Sciences III - Sciencesconf.org
Sciencesconf.org
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The positions are fixed-term for 3 years. Salary range: £50,733 - £59,484 per annum Application deadline: 29 October 2026. Contact me (Robin Ryder) if you have any questions.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
These posts provide an excellent opportunity for recent PhD graduates seeking to pursue an academic career in Statistics. You will produce independent and original research in Statistics within a world-leading institution, and teach undergraduate students.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Join us! We are hiring Chapman Fellows in Statistics, within the Department of Mathematics at Imperial College London, commencing September 2027. We welcome applications across the breadth of Statistical Science. www.imperial.ac.uk/jobs/search-...
imperial.ac.uk
Description
Please note that job descriptions are not exhaustive, and you may be asked to take on additional duties that align with the key responsibilities ment...
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
A strong call to remember what Mathematics research is actually about. Thanks you for writing this. (I signed.)
In recent months, the success of AI in solving major mathematical problems has made headlines even outside mathematical circles. But solving problems is only a tool and proxy for achieving the primary goal of conceptual understanding and insight. Forgetting this in the world of AI may turn the tool against the primary goal. Indeed, the mass production at faster and faster pace of "true/false" statements could destroy fertile ground instead of breathing life into new ideas.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Pas de Français, mais Hong Wang a fait une partie de ses études en France (à l'X et à Orsay).
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Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
18 Associate Editors resign from Statistics and Computing editorial board: Problems with commercial scholarly publishing, and what does this all mean? statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/10/1...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
18 Associate Editors resign from Statistics and Computing editorial board: Problems with commercial scholarly publishing, and what does this all mean? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and S...
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Retraction Watch @retractionwatch.com · 09/07/2026
Th resigning editors say the publisher’s decision to become fully open access is “irreconcilable with our vision of science.” According to the journal’s homepage, all submissions from July 1 that end up in the journal will be subject to a $2,990 article processing charge (APC).
retractionwatch.com
‘The exploitation still remains’: Stats journal associate editors resign over $3,000 publishing charge
Eighteen associate editors of the journal Statistics and Computing have announced they will resign after Springer Nature announced the journal would require a fee to publish.  In a July 8 stat…
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
As far as I know, the change was specific to the Statistics & Computing journal.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Thanks! It's still the early stages. We're waiting to see how the rest of the board and the community react.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
You can also read the letter directly here.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
The resignation letter is here, along with the list of signatories which will be kept up to date as it expands: robinryder.wordpress.com/2026/07/08/r...
robinryder.wordpress.com
Resigning from the editorial board of Statistics and Computing
Along with 17 other Associate Editors, I have just resigned from the editorial board of Statistics and Computing. This was a difficult decision, since it is a great journal, which has published man…
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
This will impose massive financial barriers for colleagues who do not have access to funding, will create a further gap between institutions, and the journal will eventually lose its appeal as authors publish elsewhere. We do not wish to be part of this system.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Springer Nature recently announced that for all future articles, authors would have to pay Article Processing Charges of $2990.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
I have just resigned from the board of "Statistics and Computing", along with 17 other Associate Editors. This was a difficult decision: this great journal has published many tremendous articles under the leadership of EiC Ajay Jasra, and before him David Hand, Gilles Celeux, and Mark Girolami.
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The R Foundation @r-foundation.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
The 2026 Rousseeuw Prize for Statistics has been awarded to the R Project. #RStats www.rousseeuwprize.org/2026
rousseeuwprize.org
The Rousseeuw Prize for Statistics
The Rousseeuw Prize for Statistics is a biennial prize to celebrate outstanding contributions to statistics research.
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Pierre Alquier @pierrealquier.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Reposting a very exciting job offer (post-doc) from Pierre Jacob's account on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/posts/pierre...
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Nice piece on our recent paper, led by the always amazing @phschlenker.bsky.social
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Is this maybe poor phrasing? It's possible they mean "please include *their names* in a reply to this email". I agree it would be weird to CC them.
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Thomas Dietterich @tdietterich.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
We are implementing a similar policy at @arxiv.bsky.social. If there is incontrovertible evidence of LLM slop in a paper, this means the authors did not take the time to read the LLM output and we can't trust anything else in the paper. Penalty is 1 year ban from arXiv followed by...
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Grégoire Clarté @gclarte.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
I was told the Wave model in linguistics had not been formalised. Here is an attempt at it. Note that many things remain to be done, check the discussion for that. The method/model I propose, WaST, can be used on any cognacy dataset. I'll put the code on git soon. arxiv.org/abs/2604.08220
arxiv.org
WaST: a formalisation of the Wave model with associated statistical inference and applications
We propose a mathematical formalisation of the ``wave model'' originally developed in historical linguistics but with further applications in human sciences. This model assumes new traits appear in a population and spread to nearby populations depending on their closeness. It is mostly used to describe joint evolution of closely related populations, for example of several dialects. These situations of permanent contact are not accurately represented by its competitors based on tree structures. We built a fully Bayesian generative model where innovation spread along a fixed graph and disappear according to a death process. We then develop a Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs sampler to sample from the posterior distribution on the graph. We test our method on simulated datasets as well as on several real dataset.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
As Laura said, our results show that quantitative phylolinguistics methods (those based on cognatized binary data) can't reconstruct deep topologies beyond 8-10 millennia.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Thanks Laura! We should have a preprint to share in a few weeks. It's part of Emma Kopp's PhD, and co-authored with @thomaspellard.bsky.social and @rgyalrong.bsky.social
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
"The tool introduced in this paper seems akin to adding ketchup to a culinary masterpiece by Robuchon simply because it's available." (The reviewer also made several very valid points. Apparently, the editor didn't re-invite that reviewer when we submitted the revised paper.)
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rgyalrong.bsky.social @rgyalrong.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Our chapter on the tree model (with @thomaspellard.bsky.social and @robinryder.bsky.social ) is at last published online: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Family Tree Model
The family tree remains the main metaphor for describing the evolutionary history and relationships of languages. Languages, like biological species, evolve following processes such as descent with m...
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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
I only knew Chris Sims' work, and I wish I had got to meet him. But to the extent that we know something of each other through what we put out in the world, here is my personal biased favourite of his: Why Econometrics Should Always and Everywhere Be Bayesian sims.princeton.edu/yftp/EmetSoc...
sims.princeton.edu
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Est-ce que l'échelle des ordonnées ne serait pas erronée ? Si j'en crois le texte de l'article, l'effet après 20 ans est de 1.28%, mais d'après la figure ce serait 0.0128%
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Arthur Charpentier @freakonometrics.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
"Quand les bars-tabacs ferment : l’érosion du lien social local et la progression du vote d’extrême droite en France" www.cepremap.fr/2026/01/quan... file:///Users/arthurcharpentier/Downloads/Figure_1-Note.png
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Culture Conference @cultconf.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
What a pre-conference workshop on Bayesian statistical methods—a powerful toolkit for our community! 📊 Many thanks to Daniel Redhead and Ramona Roller for guiding us through STRAND and to Michael Chimento for the introduction to STbayes. And thank you to all participants for their energy! 🙌
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Andrew Rambaut (🐏🎀) @arambaut.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
So I pleased to announce the conceptual spawn of FigTree: PearTree (acronym still to be finalised). If you want to dive right in it is hosted as a web app here: artic-network.github.io/peartree (click the “Example...” button for immediate candy and then click every button you can find).
artic-network.github.io
PearTree — Phylogenetic Tree Viewer
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Pat Savage @patrickesavage.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
My book is now published! 🌏🎶🧪
 You can download it for free at academic.oup.com/book/62353 - I’d be grateful if you do! I also published an accessible summary with audio/video today in @nature.com: www.nature.com/articles/d41... Try reading that first, then give the whole book a read if you like it!
Front cover of my book, titled "Comparative musicology: Evolution, universals, and the science of the world's music" (published today by Oxford University Press)1st of my 4-page essay published in Nature today titled "Music is not a universal language - but it can bring us together when words fail"
Picture caption: "Puerto Rican rapper Bad Bunny (centre) performed in Spanish at the half-time show of the 2026 American Football Super Bowl LX."
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
So cool! Mostly fine until 1300, understood a fair bit of 1200, and close to nothing in 1100
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
I guess if you want to see what it adds compared to your current version, you need to apply setdiff to the output of that and to your current list of (recursive) dependencies.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
tools::package_dependencies("packagename", recursive=T)
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Antoine will be spending the next few months in Berkeley. You should definitely try to hire him as a postdoc!
Photo of Christian Robert, Antoine Luciano, and Robin Ryder
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
The third project is ongoing, on using some neural network methods to accelerate ABC.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
The second project is on using permutations for Approximate Bayesian Computation, see this thread. bsky.app/profile/robi...
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Antoine's PhD consists of 3 separate projects. The first, Insufficient Gibbs Sampling, relies on data augmentation to sample from the posterior based only on robust but insufficient statistics (e.g. the median, quantiles…), a common situation when privacy matters. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Insufficient Gibbs sampling - Statistics and Computing
In some applied scenarios, the availability of complete data is restricted, often due to privacy concerns; only aggregated, robust and inefficient statistics derived from the data are made accessible....
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Congratulations to Dr Antoine Luciano, who defended his PhD on "Contributions to Bayesian Simulation-Based Inference"! I had a wonderful time supervising Antoine's PhD (jointly with Christian Robert), it's always emotional to reach the end.
Photo of 2026 PhD thesis by Antoine Luciano, with title "Contributions à l'inférence bayésienne par simulation"
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Something like this could be useful when reviewing though. If there are hallucinated references, I'd reject without reading any further. But of course we don't have access to the .bib file directly for papers we are reviewing.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Thanks, that looks super relevant! I'll forward it to Jinyuan
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Now en route to Paris for another PhD viva tomorrow: Antoine Luciano, supervised by Xian Robert and myself. Stay tuned!
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
The associated paper isn't online yet, so you'll have to be patient to read it. Code should soon be available, since that's one of the corrections we requested. ;-)
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Jinyuan's methodology, based on HMMs, is a significant improvement on the state of the art, and also allows for better uncertainty quantification. Here is what the output can look like, for Good Omens - notice the very large number of switches between the two authors.
Output of an HMM, showing the Posterior probability of each word in Good Omens being written by Neil Gaiman.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Examples of applications: * the novel "Good Omens" was co-written by Terry Pratchett and Neil Gaiman. Who wrote which parts? * take text written partly by a human and partly by a LLM. Which parts are due to the LLM?
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