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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

This morning’s walk - a Cotswolds hare enjoying the early sun.

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

RIP the great, great Alfred Brendel. There are so many wonderful recordings by him to choose from—the Schubert piano sonatas, the Beethoven piano sonatas and more. But this recording of the Brahms piano concerto no.1 is hard to beat. Recorded in 1979, it’s still glorious. Musical titan, indeed.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

Last night’s view - Tokyo Tower looking superb. #東京タワー

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Sunset this evening in Tokyo with Mt Fuji silhouetted in the distance. Yesterday’s rain has cleared the air. Just stunning. #sunset #富士山 #mountfuji #japan

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

One of the joys of Tokyo in June is the roadside hydrangeas. Spotted these gorgeous specimens over the past couple of days. #Japan

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Japan’s new demographic stats are a shocker. Speed of recent decline in Japan’s births is clear in this Nikkei chart—dip below 1.1m in 2005, below 1m in 2016, below 900,000 in 2019, below 800,000 in 2022 and below 700,000 in 2024. All this 15 yrs ahead of govt’s expectation. Nikkei chart.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 27/05/2025

Nikkei map showing Kamandag military exercise (shaded blue circle). Spread of countries represented is striking—US, Philippines, Japan, ROK, UK. Map also refers to strategic alignment between China, Russia and DPRK and China’s own maritime advances.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

US sld have studied Japan’s response to China’s curbs on rare earth exports to 🇯🇵 as bilateral geopol tensions rose. An early example of 🇨🇳’s weaponisation of trade interdependence. 🇯🇵 changed policy in response, building stockpiles etc. Here, US looks underprepared for geoecon struggle w 🇨🇳. FT pic.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

Asahi chart showing top 10 foreign holders of US Treasuries. With USD1.3trn, Japan tops the league, well ahead of no.2 UK and no.3 China. But this is not really a leverage tool for Tokyo in negotiations. PM Hashimoto issued veiled threat in 90s, but rowed back. 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 security rels too important.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 19/05/2025

A beautiful light on yesterday’s walk first thing, despite the cloud. #Cotswolds #landscape #countryside

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

Global current-account (im)balances—‘Donald Trump’s presidency is in part a symptom of this reality’. From excellent Wolf piece in FT on excess global savings.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

Very pleased to announce that my new IISS Adelphi book on Japan is nearly with us. The tome considers whether 🇯🇵’s new grand strategy, defence reforms etc are up to the strategic task that 🇯🇵 has set itself against the background of increasing tensions around Taiwan in particular. On Amazon etc.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

A reminder of China’s live-fire exercises around Taiwan. Map from this week’s Economist piece on the exercises foreshadowing a Chinese blockade of the island.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

This morning’s walk - some unexpected companions. #Cotswolds

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 27/04/2025

…more of today’s wonderful bluebells.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 27/04/2025

This morning’s walk. A carpet of English bluebells—there are few things finer. #Cotswolds #bluebells

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Beautiful Paris - Île Saint-Louis, 4th, yesterday. #Paris #streetscape #city

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Apple’s shift of for-US iPhone assembly to India from China highlights how quickly some production can move (here, by end-2026) and how US economic policy will force further supply-chain fragmentation—for-China production/for RoW prod already in train—as MNCs build resilience. FT paras.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

Sir András Schiff after a sensational 90 minutes or so of Bach’s Art of Fugue last night at La Salle Pierre Boulez at the Philharmonie de Paris. Stunning.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

Walk in Paris last week - rue du Faubourg Saint-Antoine. #Paris #streetscape #city

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 19/04/2025

So many favourites from the visit earlier this week to see the David Hockney show at Paris’s Fondation Louis Vuitton. Joyous, fabulous and life-affirming—lifted the spirits…

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

Today, April 14th, marks 113 years since the Titanic sank. A while ago I managed to hunt down this picture of my great grandfather, Percy Ward, a bedroom steward on the ship and who went down with it. RIP to him and all who lost their lives that night. #Titanic113

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

Great FT chart showing UK productivity and real wages since 1800. UK’s current productivity stagnation unprecedented since 18th century. As Wolf says in the open: ‘…the UK economy has gone ex-growth’.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

Another glorious sunrise in this corner of the Cotswolds today—complete with morning mist too. #landscape #cotswolds

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

Japan wants a stronger yen, but not like this—JPY rising at a time of acute global trade stress against the USD and the RMB (chart), two key export markets, and with its production bases in Southeast Asia reeling under brutal US tariffs. Nikkei chart shows 🇯🇵 firms ops in SEA. Grim.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

Asia a clear focus of Trump’s tariffs—for many they’re swingeing, for some they’re brutal, eg Vietnam 46%. Difficult to think of a policy that wld have been better calibrated to drive swathes of the region closer into China’s orbit. US strategic position in Asia is now significantly weaker. FT chart

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

Demographic decline in Europe and Asia writ large: Italy’s births hit record low of <400k in 2024, 16th year of straight decline. Japan’s births, meanwhile, hit 125-year low (ie, since records began) in 2024, 9th year of consecutive decline heading towards 700k. FT charts.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 29/03/2025

Another glorious start to the day - memories of the long, grey and damp winter are now fading. #landscape #cotswolds #fujifilmxt5

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 28/03/2025

A reminder of Japan’s proximity to Taiwan and of the threat to 🇯🇵 from any 🇹🇼 ‘emergency’. Graphic from Nikkei piece on govt plans to evacuate 120k ppl over 6-day periods from 🇯🇵’s exposed southwestern region to Kyushu, Yamaguchi Prefecture in such an emergency.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

Japanese novels having a moment in UK—🇯🇵 authors have 40% of sales of translated novels in 🇬🇧, Yuzuki’s Butter sells more in 🇬🇧 than in 🇯🇵. Chart from Nikkei showing top 🇯🇵 novels in translation in UK. 🇯🇵 culture enjoying boom elsewhere in UK too.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

A glorious start to the day in this bit of the Cotswolds. The blue mistiness suggests a touch of what the Japanese call ‘harugasumi’ 春霞, or ‘spring haze’. Spring is finally on its way after what has been a particularly gloomy winter. #landscape #Cotswolds #countryside

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

FT’s Beattie makes spot-on points on the Trump administration—not the Tinbergen rule, not even Nixon’s ‘madman theory’, but…

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

Given the Trump administration’s positioning re Russia, it was good to see the UK-Japan economic 2+2 mtg reaffirm support for Ukraine. Despite the headwinds, it remains vital for both the UK and Japan and others to stand up for the rules-based order. Full statement👉: www.mofa.go.jp/press/releas...

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

🎙 In this episode of Japan Memo, Professor Takahara Akio from Tokyo Univ., Dr @lizwish.bsky.social from CNA and Dr Catherine Jones from St Andrews Univ. join me to share their insights on the challenges to Japan of the growing Russia-China partnership. 🎧 Tune in: www.iiss.org/podcasts/jap...

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

A glorious view of beautiful London on the approach to Heathrow yesterday morning. Spectacular! #aerialphotography #aerialview #cityscape

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

…and again, with a view to the Sheesh Mahal and showing the beautiful symmetry of the Islamic garden design. A wonderful oasis in the fort. #Jaipur

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

The glorious Mughal Garden at the Amber Fort in Jaipur, India, from a visit earlier this week…

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

Economics 101 on trade deficits from this Wolf piece in FT, but we need to keep on repeating it…

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

As Trump executes a ‘reverse Nixon’ with Russia/China, perhaps it’s also worth remembering Nixon’s own prescient forecast about Russia made in the early 1990s… (quoted in When the Clock Broke).

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

…and the final view on the way out. In awe.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

…the sunrise itself over the Taj Mahal Guest House…

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

…the beauty of the accompanying gates and other surrounding buildings in the complex…

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

…to the exquisite details, inlays and more when viewed close-up…

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

…to the glorious symmetry of the approach to the mausoleum…

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

🧵 Just fulfilled a lifetime dream with a visit at dawn to the Taj Mahal 🇮🇳. Expectations of this architectural miracle were high, but they were exceeded. Perfection in every sense, from the heart-quickening moment of the first glimpse when it loomed in the dawn light through the West Gate…

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

Chart from Wall St Journal showing joint China-Russia military patrols around Japan. Of course, 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 military cooperation falls far short of an alliance, but it doesn’t have to be to increase tensions in an already tense neighbourhood. Evidence of a deepening strategic relationship.

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