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Rhodium Group

@rhg.com
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Rhodium Group is an independent research provider, combining policy expertise and data-driven analysis to help decision-makers navigate global challenges.

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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 9m
Policy in China for steel decarbonization has been more muted than in the US and Europe, focusing largely on incremental plant-level emissions reductions. But the building blocks for green steel are being laid now, setting China up to be a major player if that changes. New: rhg.com/research/fut...
rhg.com
Furnaces, Fossils, and the Future of Chinese Green Steel
Policy in China for steel decarbonization has been more muted, focusing largely on incremental plant-level emissions reductions. Regardless, the role of China looms large over any discussion of steel ...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 22h
A new report from the Climate Impact Lab finds this year’s Super El Niño is projected to lead to 451,000 deaths from extreme hot days, and also identifies the regions where immediate actions could offer the greatest opportunity to save lives. impactlab.org/research/451...
impactlab.org
451,000 at Risk - Climate Impact Lab
Scientists project that global land temperatures will be 1.2°C/2.1° F above normal in the coming months due in large part to the current “Super El Niño” that began in June and is expected to last thro...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23h
Since the beginning of this year, most frontier labs and hyperscalers in China have raised model prices. However, even after the price hikes, Chinese frontier models are significantly cheaper than those from US labs.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 28/09/2026
One of the clearest takeaways from our latest analysis on who loses from China's export gains is that economies whose exports are directly competitive or similar to China’s face the biggest potential fallout.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 28/09/2026
Join Rhodium Group's Dan Rosen on Wednesday for a discussion with Nicholas Lardy on the future of China's domestic consumption. Tickets available here:
asiasociety.org
Does China Really Need to Consume More? A Debate with Nicholas Lardy and Daniel Rosen
Join us for a debate on the future of China’s economic growth and whether greater household consumption is essential to sustainable rebalancing.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026
If China's exports kept rising at the same rate they are today, large trading economies with export profiles similar to China like the United States, Germany, Indonesia, and France stand to lose the most. (thread)
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 22/09/2026
Guidance from China’s major hyperscalers and telecoms implies 103% y/y growth in AI capex this year to 932 billion yuan ($139B) and over 1.2 trillion yuan ($193B) in 2027, with 39% growth. ByteDance’s upgraded capex plan is the largest marginal contributor this year.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 18/09/2026
"Clean energy generation is still expected to surge over the next several years...After 2030, the sector’s growth is a lot more uncertain. While there’s a chance that record clean energy deployment continues, it could also 'slow to a trickle.'" www.latitudemedia.com/news/what-ep...
latitudemedia.com
What EPA’s climate denial means for the energy transition
Post-2030, renewables deployment is highly uncertain.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 17/09/2026
Annual recurring revenues (ARR) of China's frontier labs and hyperscalers’ AI model businesses have surged this year, but the total ARR for all of China’s AI models was still only around $10.7 billion, or around 10% of the recently reported levels of OpenAI and Anthropic.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 17/09/2026
US-China competition on AI is one of the biggest stories today, but there has been little focus on how China’s AI firms are financing their own expansion, or how constraints on compute and finance interact in China’s market. Our latest report explores just that:
rhg.com
Examining China's AI Financing
We examine how China’s AI firms finance their operations and evaluate their scope and sustainability, including a comparative perspective with US firms.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 14/09/2026
Global investment in clean technology manufacturing and industrial facilities fell 14% in Q1 and another 7% in Q2 2026, continuing a downward trend underway since late 2023. Solar manufacturing accounted for a large share of the decline.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/09/2026
Across China's chemical industry, between 2021 and 2025, operating profits fell by 55% and revenues barely grew, yet liabilities increased by 43% according to data from the NBS.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 10/09/2026
Beijing has not delivered on its promised reforms to its banking system, but has instead tightened control over banks and molded them into policy tools, imposing consequences on both China's economy and its trading partners.
rhg.com
The Banks Behind the China Shock
Beijing has not delivered on its promised reforms to its banking system, but has instead tightened control over banks and molded them into policy tools, imposing consequences on both China's economy a...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 10/09/2026
The pace of global clean tech investment growth is leveling off after years of relatively steady expansion. From 2018-2025, investment experienced a relatively steady upward trend. That momentum may be flagging somewhat as investment in Q1 and Q2 2026 crept back to levels last seen in 2024.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 02/09/2026
Has China made more progress toward consumption-led growth than commonly recognized? Join Rhodium Group's Daniel Rosen on September 30 at @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org for a discussion with PIIE's Nicholas Lardy on China's consumption:
asiasociety.org
Does China Really Need to Consume More? A Debate with Nicholas Lardy and Daniel Rosen
Join us for a debate on the future of China’s economic growth and whether greater household consumption is essential to sustainable rebalancing.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 28/08/2026
Chinese FDI in US clean tech suffered a flurry of divestment in Q2 2026: Boviet Solar, JinkoSolar, and AESC partly or fully sold their plants in North Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee. See the latest on Chinese investment:
cbm.rhg.com
China Doubles Down on Mining: Q2 2026 Update
Mining dominated announced Chinese outbound investment in Q2 2026, driven by new acquisitions and the expansion of previously acquired operations. Automotive investment is gradually recovering, led by...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 24/08/2026
Nuclear energy capacity is poised to expand in the US if the government and industry can overcome supply chain and financial barriers. However, this energy renaissance will only be possible if key investments are made in precise segments of the critical mineral value chain.
rhg.com
Critical Mineral Chokepoints Could Threaten the US Nuclear Energy Renaissance
We provide a granular, product-specific assessment of critical minerals needed for a US nuclear power plant build-out through the mid-2030s and associated key supply chain vulnerabilities.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 13/08/2026
In new analysis, we calculate the critical mineral requirements for a US nuclear build-out of Generation 3+ reactors. A careful review of supply chains reveals potential chokepoints, especially if there is a surge in demand from a large number of nuclear projects. rhg.com/research/cri...
rhg.com
Critical Mineral Chokepoints Could Threaten the US Nuclear Energy Renaissance
We provide a granular, product-specific assessment of critical minerals needed for a US nuclear power plant build-out through the mid-2030s and associated key supply chain vulnerabilities.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/08/2026
In the second quarter of 2026, clean energy and transportation investment in the US totaled $75 billion, a 22% increase from Q1 2026 and the second-highest quarter of investments on record. The increase was largely driven by consumer spending on clean technologies.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 05/08/2026
Reva Goujon joined Bloomberg's David Ingles and Avril Hong to discuss our latest report on why policymakers need to broaden their lens to the full stack when it comes to AI competition with China:
bloomberg.com
Watch Rhodium: China Leads US in Key Tech Stack Areas - Bloomberg
A Rhodium Group analysis shows China leads the US and other G7 nations in several key areas of AI development, despite lagging behind in chips. Reva Goujon, a director at the group and co-author of th...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 04/08/2026
Since the Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (45X) was enacted, the US has seen billions of dollars in investment across its clean energy manufacturing base. But for all its success, the credit is limited in scope, omitting technologies that have become increasingly important.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 04/08/2026
Policymakers in the AI space have been narrowly focused on the most visible parts of the system: chips, cloud, and models. But to craft a durable AI strategy, policymakers need to reconcile industrial capacity, geopolitical realities, and rapid evolution of the technology.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 03/08/2026
We project that a historic influx of renewables comes online between now and 2030, in response to surging electricity demand and in time to claim federal tax credits before they expire. 48-50 GW of solar, wind, and storage are deployed on average through 2030, in line with 2025's record of 50 GW.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 03/08/2026
India has seen some success in sectors it targeted for export growth, like smartphones and solar panels. Its Production-Linked Incentive program provided funds that helped companies break ground on capital-intensive projects.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 31/07/2026
When the US-China trade war began in 2018, India was widely expected to be a top beneficiary of shifting supply chains. But it has lagged well behind Vietnam and Mexico in capturing manufacturing value added and absorbing China's declining share of US imports.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 30/07/2026
Can India finally realize its manufacturing ambitions? New trade deals and other countries’ rising barriers to Chinese goods offer India an opportunity to capture global export share, even as its manufacturing ecosystem remains less competitive.
rhg.com
Can India Finally Realize Its Manufacturing Ambitions?
Trade deals with the EU and potentially the US, alongside other countries’ rising barriers to Chinese goods, offer India an opportunity to capture global export share, even as its manufacturing ecosys...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/07/2026
In our new Taking Stock 2026, our annually updated projections for the US energy system and greenhouse gas emissions under all current and federal state policy, we find that the US is on track to reduce emissions by 27-41% below 2005 levels in 2040.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/07/2026
In just a few years, Chinese OEMs have gone from zero to almost 30% market share in Thailand, and a whopping 90% of EV sales. The question now is how much more market share Chinese OEMs can gain in the country.
rhg.com
How Chinese Cars Took Over Thailand
In just a few years, Chinese OEMs have gone from zero to almost 30% market share, and a whopping 90% of EV sales. The question now is how much more market share Chinese OEMs can gain in the country.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 15/07/2026
In Q2 2026, actual investment in US clean tech manufacturing increased 4% quarter-on-quarter to $8 billion, breaking a six-quarter streak of consecutive declines. Investment remained 24% below Q2 2025 levels.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 10/07/2026
In new analysis, we assess which options for powering data centers genuinely accelerate the energy transition, which undermine progress, and which merely participate in trends that are taking place anyway, using the just launched Transition Acceleration Framework: rhg.com/research/dat...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 09/07/2026
Today we're launching the Transition Acceleration Framework, developed in partnership with Generate Capital and CalSTRS, for evaluating where climate investment, policy, and procurement will most accelerate decarbonization, beyond the trajectory the world is already on. Covers 100+ techs globally
taf.rhg.com
Transition Acceleration Framework | Rhodium Group
The Transition Acceleration Framework (TAF) provides forward-looking analytics to direct climate capital, policy, and procurement where they accelerate decarbonization most.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 07/07/2026
Global clean technology manufacturing investment has moderated after a decade of extraordinary growth. China and the US were both the primary drivers of that rise and the subsequent pullback—though the nature of each country’s decline differs significantly. rhg.com/research/us-...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/06/2026
In both metals and agriculture, disruptions to sulfuric acid supply spread through global trade networks and ultimately feed back into China’s own cost structures. Over the longer term, the constraints China is now facing are likely to intensify.
rhg.com
Resource Nationalism and Inflation
As China and other countries engage in new forms of resource nationalism—attempting to control key industrial inputs at home—the results are strained global supply chains and new constraints on China’...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/06/2026
India has seen a massive solar manufacturing build-out, putting it third behind China and the US in current and planned solar cell and module capacity globally. Quarterly investment has recently started falling, however, due to mounting US tariffs and domestic overcapacity. rhg.com/research/sol...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 25/06/2026
New: We dig into how the global solar manufacturing landscape is responding to US tariffs and overcapacity—with a focus on India and Southeast Asia, where investment has fallen markedly in recent quarters. rhg.com/research/sol...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 24/06/2026
Investment in clean steel to date has been concentrated in Europe, where mature capital markets and supportive government policy have driven early-stage development. However, other regions may hold stronger resource advantages and a clearer path to cost competitiveness. rhg.com/research/glo...
rhg.com
Forging a Global Clean Steel Economy: Leveraging Trade to Reduce the Green Premium
In steel production, fossil fuels are consumed primarily in the initial ironmaking step. We examine the major cost drivers of clean iron production and assess which countries are best positioned to pr...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 17/06/2026
Some expansive accountings of Chinese FDI in clean tech have tallied nearly $400 billion in investment. In reality though, the footprint of Chinese companies along the supply chains of clean tech is much smaller, with completed FDI likely in the range of $85 billion.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 16/06/2026
As China and other countries engage in new forms of resource nationalism—attempting to control key industrial inputs at home—the results are strained global supply chains and new constraints on China’s growth.
rhg.com
Resource Nationalism and Inflation
As China and other countries engage in new forms of resource nationalism—attempting to control key industrial inputs at home—the results are strained global supply chains and new constraints on China’...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/06/2026
Chinese overseas clean tech investment is growing but not as large as some headlines suggest, according to new data on FDI by Chinese companies abroad across the EV, solar PV, and wind turbine value chains.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 09/06/2026
While SAF production has risen in the past few years, it contributed less than 1% of global jet fuel consumption in 2025. The full pipeline of announced production facilities globally could deliver 19 million tons by 2030, but delays and cancellations have been endemic rhg.com/research/see...
rhg.com
Seeking Alternatives: How Fast Can Sustainable Aviation Fuel Scale?
The war in the Middle East has disrupted jet fuel, which has seen prices more than double since January. The crisis has intensified calls to build long-term resilience for jet fuel supplies by acceler...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 08/06/2026
China's policymakers use a tiered program for innovative small and medium companies to enable their industrial upgrading. In recent years, we can see an increased focus on the services industry, as more research and tech services companies are designated in the program.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/05/2026
New reforms to China's hukou system will certainly benefit migrant workers by giving them access to more social services where they live and work. But without other changes, it may not reduce cautionary savings and boost consumption significantly.
rhg.com
How Can China Boost Consumption?
China’s investment-led growth model has reached its limits and household consumption will be the key driver of China’s long-term economic trajectory. Beijing has reform options available, though they ...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 28/05/2026
Recent electricity price increases in the US are driven by multiple, intersecting factors that vary substantially regionally and by individual utility. We've assessed the drivers of electricity prices and how they're likely to evolve in the next few years. rhg.com/research/us-...
rhg.com
Caught in the Current: Historical and Prospective Drivers of Changes in US Electricity Prices
Recent electricity price increases in the US are driven by multiple, intersecting factors that vary substantially regionally and by individual utility.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 26/05/2026
In Q1 2026, investment in US EV supply chain manufacturing declined again, falling 10% from Q4 2025, and 36% relative to Q1 2025. Battery manufacturing investment experienced the steepest decline, falling 16% relative to Q4 2025 and 47% from Q1 2025. www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-q...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 21/05/2026
Starting soon: Rhodium Group staff will join other experts to discuss our recent modeling of state-level policies to accelerate next-gen geothermal in this webinar hosted by @rockymtninst.bsky.social rmi.org/event/webina...
rmi.org
Webinar—Next-Generation Geothermal: The Regional Economic Opportunity - RMI
In this virtual briefing, experts from RMI, Rhodium Group, and the Utah Governor’s Office of Economic Opportunity will discuss recent developments in next-generation geothermal; the opportunity to bui...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 20/05/2026
New: US clean energy and transportation investment fell in Q1, marking the second quarter in a row with a year-over-year decline, following an unbroken year-on-year growth trend that had held since 2019. www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-q...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 14/05/2026
China dominates manufacturing of intermediate goods that use critical materials as inputs, creating an additional layer of chokepoints, which Beijing is targeting in most recent export controls—including outside of China. Read more in our latest note:
rhg.com
Critical Mineral Chokepoints Extend Far Beyond Mining and Refining
China dominates manufacturing of intermediate goods that use critical materials as inputs, creating an additional layer of chokepoints, which Beijing is targeting in most recent export controls—includ...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 13/05/2026
Global clean technology manufacturing investment has moderated after a decade of extraordinary growth. China and the US were both the primary drivers of that rise and the subsequent pullback—though the nature of each country’s decline differs significantly.
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Reposted by Rhodium Group
Bruegel @bruegel.org · 11/05/2026
📉 Why is global clean-tech manufacturing investment slowing? 🔍 Analysis by Benjamin Bjerkan-Wade, Hannah Hess, @mariejuge.bsky.social, @keliauskaite.bsky.social, Kate Larsen, @bmcwilliams.bsky.social, Hannah Pitt and @tagliapietra.bsky.social 💡 With @rhg.com 🔗 buff.ly/Dtfpowp #EconSky
buff.ly
Understanding the global clean tech manufacturing slowdown
Improving economic policy
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/05/2026
In our latest report with the US Chamber, we explain how Beijing's industrial policy has evolved and expanded to cover almost all aspects of the economy, accelerating its trade dominance and deepening foreign dependencies on China.
rhg.com
China’s Next-Generation Industrial Policy
China’s industrial strategy now touches almost every major sector in the economy and their underlying supply chains. These state interventions are accelerating China’s trade dominance and expanding fo...
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