Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/09/2026Since the beginning of this year, most frontier labs and hyperscalers in China have raised model prices. However, even after the price hikes, Chinese frontier models are significantly cheaper than those from US labs. 140
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 28/09/2026One of the clearest takeaways from our latest analysis on who loses from China's export gains is that economies whose exports are directly competitive or similar to China’s face the biggest potential fallout. 132
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026Because the economies with the most to lose are those with similar export profiles to China's, loss of export shares would be particularly concentrated in manufacturing economies like the US and Germany, among others. 110
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026The net result of our projection would suggest that China gains around $1.13T in annual export value by 2030 relative to the baseline scenario, while the rest of the world loses around $5.1T, with the G7 accounting for $2.25 trillion of those potential losses alone. 120
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026But export shares alone present an incomplete picture of the future of global trade, as China's export prices have declined substantially while rising substantially elsewhere, including Germany, the US, and Italy. 110
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026In our latest note, we ask a hypothetical question: What would the world look like if China’s exports kept rising at the same rate they are today? This scenario is purely hypothetical, but it illustrates the risk that continued Chinese export growth poses to advanced economies. 110
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026If China's exports kept rising at the same rate they are today, large trading economies with export profiles similar to China like the United States, Germany, Indonesia, and France stand to lose the most. (thread) 121
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 22/09/2026Guidance from China’s major hyperscalers and telecoms implies 103% y/y growth in AI capex this year to 932 billion yuan ($139B) and over 1.2 trillion yuan ($193B) in 2027, with 39% growth. ByteDance’s upgraded capex plan is the largest marginal contributor this year. 130
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 17/09/2026Annual recurring revenues (ARR) of China's frontier labs and hyperscalers’ AI model businesses have surged this year, but the total ARR for all of China’s AI models was still only around $10.7 billion, or around 10% of the recently reported levels of OpenAI and Anthropic. 130
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 14/09/2026Global investment in clean technology manufacturing and industrial facilities fell 14% in Q1 and another 7% in Q2 2026, continuing a downward trend underway since late 2023. Solar manufacturing accounted for a large share of the decline. 154
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/09/2026Across China's chemical industry, between 2021 and 2025, operating profits fell by 55% and revenues barely grew, yet liabilities increased by 43% according to data from the NBS. 111
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 10/09/2026China accounted for 88% of the global clean investment decline in Q1 2026, with investment down by half from Q4 2025 and 19% below Q1 2025. This came after a surge in Q4 2025 investment ahead of reduced subsidies and incentives supporting renewables and EVs. 102
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 10/09/2026The pace of global clean tech investment growth is leveling off after years of relatively steady expansion. From 2018-2025, investment experienced a relatively steady upward trend. That momentum may be flagging somewhat as investment in Q1 and Q2 2026 crept back to levels last seen in 2024. 103
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/08/2026Zero-emission vehicle sales increased 28% from Q1 2026, but was down 3% relative to Q2 2025. Distributed electricity generation and storage investment reached nearly $12 billion in Q2 2026, marking the highest quarter on record, with residential battery storage installations accounting for 75%. 240
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/08/2026In the second quarter of 2026, clean energy and transportation investment in the US totaled $75 billion, a 22% increase from Q1 2026 and the second-highest quarter of investments on record. The increase was largely driven by consumer spending on clean technologies. 154
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 04/08/2026Since the Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (45X) was enacted, the US has seen billions of dollars in investment across its clean energy manufacturing base. But for all its success, the credit is limited in scope, omitting technologies that have become increasingly important. 110
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 04/08/2026Policymakers in the AI space have been narrowly focused on the most visible parts of the system: chips, cloud, and models. But to craft a durable AI strategy, policymakers need to reconcile industrial capacity, geopolitical realities, and rapid evolution of the technology. 120
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 03/08/2026But after 2030, the grid’s trajectory diverges significantly across our scenarios. Renewable additions hold near 53 GW/year through 2040 in the low-emissions case, but fall to just 3 GW/year in the high-emissions case as cheap natural gas takes over. From our new outlook: rhg.com/research/tak... 010
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 03/08/2026We project that a historic influx of renewables comes online between now and 2030, in response to surging electricity demand and in time to claim federal tax credits before they expire. 48-50 GW of solar, wind, and storage are deployed on average through 2030, in line with 2025's record of 50 GW. 121
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 03/08/2026India has seen some success in sectors it targeted for export growth, like smartphones and solar panels. Its Production-Linked Incentive program provided funds that helped companies break ground on capital-intensive projects. 110
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 31/07/2026When the US-China trade war began in 2018, India was widely expected to be a top beneficiary of shifting supply chains. But it has lagged well behind Vietnam and Mexico in capturing manufacturing value added and absorbing China's declining share of US imports. 131
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/07/2026As a result, new clean generation on the grid surges through the late 2020s across all scenarios, but natural gas and renewables compete for dominance thereafter. Read the full report here: rhg.com/research/tak... Explore the data on ClimateDeck here: climatedeck.rhg.com/us-emissions... 001
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/07/2026In the power sector, surging electricity demand, driven increasingly by new AI data centers, is running into a power grid that has seen flat load growth for decades. This is against a backdrop of shifting policy, as the most impactful parts of the clean electricity tax credits are set to phase out. 100
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/07/2026In our new Taking Stock 2026, our annually updated projections for the US energy system and greenhouse gas emissions under all current and federal state policy, we find that the US is on track to reduce emissions by 27-41% below 2005 levels in 2040. 100
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 15/07/2026New project announcements in Q2 rose sharply to $10 billion, more than five times the $2 billion in the previous quarter, largely driven by solar manufacturing projects. Canceled investment increased 4% quarter-on-quarter to $1.7 billion in Q2 2026. www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-c... 010
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 15/07/2026In Q2 2026, actual investment in US clean tech manufacturing increased 4% quarter-on-quarter to $8 billion, breaking a six-quarter streak of consecutive declines. Investment remained 24% below Q2 2025 levels. 121
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 10/07/2026In new analysis, we assess which options for powering data centers genuinely accelerate the energy transition, which undermine progress, and which merely participate in trends that are taking place anyway, using the just launched Transition Acceleration Framework: rhg.com/research/dat... 031
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 09/07/2026To mark the launch, we employ TAF to assess which options for powering data centers genuinely accelerate the energy transition, which undermine progress, and which merely participate in trends that are taking place anyway, in new research: rhg.com/research/dat... 010
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 07/07/2026Global clean technology manufacturing investment has moderated after a decade of extraordinary growth. China and the US were both the primary drivers of that rise and the subsequent pullback—though the nature of each country’s decline differs significantly. rhg.com/research/us-... 011
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/06/2026India has seen a massive solar manufacturing build-out, putting it third behind China and the US in current and planned solar cell and module capacity globally. Quarterly investment has recently started falling, however, due to mounting US tariffs and domestic overcapacity. rhg.com/research/sol... 042
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 25/06/2026New: We dig into how the global solar manufacturing landscape is responding to US tariffs and overcapacity—with a focus on India and Southeast Asia, where investment has fallen markedly in recent quarters. rhg.com/research/sol... 010
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 17/06/2026Some expansive accountings of Chinese FDI in clean tech have tallied nearly $400 billion in investment. In reality though, the footprint of Chinese companies along the supply chains of clean tech is much smaller, with completed FDI likely in the range of $85 billion. 111
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/06/2026Chinese overseas clean tech investment is growing but not as large as some headlines suggest, according to new data on FDI by Chinese companies abroad across the EV, solar PV, and wind turbine value chains. 110
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 08/06/2026China's policymakers use a tiered program for innovative small and medium companies to enable their industrial upgrading. In recent years, we can see an increased focus on the services industry, as more research and tech services companies are designated in the program. 110
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 26/05/2026In Q1 2026, investment in US EV supply chain manufacturing declined again, falling 10% from Q4 2025, and 36% relative to Q1 2025. Battery manufacturing investment experienced the steepest decline, falling 16% relative to Q4 2025 and 47% from Q1 2025. www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-q... 001
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 20/05/2026However cumulative investment in clean electricity production grew 29% over the past four quarters to $105 billion—the largest sustained four-quarter investment period since CIM tracking began in 2018. 011
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 20/05/2026New: US clean energy and transportation investment fell in Q1, marking the second quarter in a row with a year-over-year decline, following an unbroken year-on-year growth trend that had held since 2019. www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-q... 111
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 13/05/2026Global clean technology manufacturing investment has moderated after a decade of extraordinary growth. China and the US were both the primary drivers of that rise and the subsequent pullback—though the nature of each country’s decline differs significantly. 101
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 07/05/2026Last quarter, Chinese firms announced close to $10 billion worth of M&A, the highest level in five years. The deals were concentrated in mining and consumer goods. 110
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 05/05/2026In new analysis, we assess which countries are best positioned to produce clean iron and examine the role of trade in making clean steel commercially viable globally. rhg.com/research/glo... 000
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 05/05/2026Direct reduced iron (DRI) is the dominant clean ironmaking pathway, a key step for clean steel. According to our tracking of global clean steel investment, hydrogen-ready natural gas DRI, an important transitional tech, accounts for 57% of investment to date, while hydrogen DRI accounts for 38%. 100
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/04/2026Last quarter marks the lowest announced investments in US clean tech manufacturing in more than 5 years. Cancelled investment was subdued at $1.6bn after a record-high $8bn cancellations in Q4 2025. New data on US clean tech manufacturing in Q1 2026: www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-c... 000
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 24/04/2026The demographic pressures on China’s fiscal balance are likely still underappreciated. Beijing spent 2.9 trillion yuan to fill the deficit from the social security fund, accounting for 10.1% of last year’s general budget spending. The deficit is likely to widen further. 100
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/04/2026New Clean Investment Monitor data: In Q1 2026, actual investment in US clean tech manufacturing fell for a 6th consecutive quarter, an 11% drop from Q4 2025 and 34% from Q1 2025. It was also the lowest level of announced investments in more than 5 years www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-c... 010
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 22/04/2026Tomorrow at 12pmET, Rhodium Group staff and other experts will share insights from the Clean Investment Monitor's expanded tracking of investment trends in the manufacturing and deployment of clean technologies around the world. Register for the webinar here: neiscenter.org/event/tracki... 010
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 22/04/2026But demographic pressures on China’s fiscal balance are still underappreciated. In 2025, Beijing spent 2.9 trillion yuan to fill the deficit from the social security fund, accounting for 10.1% of last year’s general budget spending. The deficit is likely to widen further. 100
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 22/04/2026Regional differences are meaningful for China’s economic outlook as well. On the surface, coastal provinces reported population growth, but most of these provinces are reporting negative natural population changes, with most growth from migration. 100
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 22/04/2026We estimate China will lose nearly 60 million people in the next decade, almost the size of France. The impact on household consumption is obvious, but the larger problem for Beijing may be the hit to social security funds. 111
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 17/04/2026Last year, China’s solar and wind power generation was roughly equal to total industrial and residential power consumption in the United States. While China's power generation is still dominated by coal, renewables are now driving most power generation growth. 1135
Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 10/04/2026The speed at which Chinese carmakers, particularly BYD, Chery, and SAIC, are gaining market share in Europe is unprecedented. It differs markedly from the experience with Japanese and Korean automakers, which entered the market in the 1970s and 1990s, respectively. 3105