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Rhodium Group

@rhg.com
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Rhodium Group is an independent research provider, combining policy expertise and data-driven analysis to help decision-makers navigate global challenges.

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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 6h
Policy in China for steel decarbonization has been more muted than in the US and Europe, focusing largely on incremental plant-level emissions reductions. But the building blocks for green steel are being laid now, setting China up to be a major player if that changes. New: rhg.com/research/fut...
rhg.com
Furnaces, Fossils, and the Future of Chinese Green Steel
Policy in China for steel decarbonization has been more muted, focusing largely on incremental plant-level emissions reductions. Regardless, the role of China looms large over any discussion of steel ...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/09/2026
A new report from the Climate Impact Lab finds this year’s Super El Niño is projected to lead to 451,000 deaths from extreme hot days, and also identifies the regions where immediate actions could offer the greatest opportunity to save lives. impactlab.org/research/451...
impactlab.org
451,000 at Risk - Climate Impact Lab
Scientists project that global land temperatures will be 1.2°C/2.1° F above normal in the coming months due in large part to the current “Super El Niño” that began in June and is expected to last thro...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/09/2026
Read more about what the price gap means for the financing environment for China's AI companies:
rhg.com
Examining China's AI Financing
We examine how China’s AI firms finance their operations and evaluate their scope and sustainability, including a comparative perspective with US firms.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 29/09/2026
Since the beginning of this year, most frontier labs and hyperscalers in China have raised model prices. However, even after the price hikes, Chinese frontier models are significantly cheaper than those from US labs.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 28/09/2026
Read more in our latest note about who loses if China's export market share continues to grow at the same pace it is today:
rhg.com
Who Loses from China’s Export Gains?
If China's exports kept rising at the same rate they are today, large trading economies with export profiles similar to China like the United States, Germany, Indonesia, and France stand to lose the m...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 28/09/2026
But losses are concentrated in manufacturing economies, like Germany, Japan, Italy, Poland, and the US. Commodity exporters have very little in common with China’s export profile and face low potential losses from the continued growth of China's exports.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 28/09/2026
One of the clearest takeaways from our latest analysis on who loses from China's export gains is that economies whose exports are directly competitive or similar to China’s face the biggest potential fallout.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 28/09/2026
Join Rhodium Group's Dan Rosen on Wednesday for a discussion with Nicholas Lardy on the future of China's domestic consumption. Tickets available here:
asiasociety.org
Does China Really Need to Consume More? A Debate with Nicholas Lardy and Daniel Rosen
Join us for a debate on the future of China’s economic growth and whether greater household consumption is essential to sustainable rebalancing.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026
These projections should be taken with some salt, but they still illustrate the risks China's growing export share poses to advanced economies that are trying to maintain their industrial bases. Read the note:
rhg.com
Who Loses from China’s Export Gains?
If China's exports kept rising at the same rate they are today, large trading economies with export profiles similar to China like the United States, Germany, Indonesia, and France stand to lose the m...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026
Because the economies with the most to lose are those with similar export profiles to China's, loss of export shares would be particularly concentrated in manufacturing economies like the US and Germany, among others.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026
The net result of our projection would suggest that China gains around $1.13T in annual export value by 2030 relative to the baseline scenario, while the rest of the world loses around $5.1T, with the G7 accounting for $2.25 trillion of those potential losses alone.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026
But export shares alone present an incomplete picture of the future of global trade, as China's export prices have declined substantially while rising substantially elsewhere, including Germany, the US, and Italy.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026
An increase in China’s global export share implies a decline in the rest of the world’s share. By 2030, we estimate that the US could lose 1.2 percentage points (pp) of its share of global trade, Indonesia 0.8pp, Canada 0.5pp, Germany 0.4pp, and the Netherlands 0.4pp.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026
In our latest note, we ask a hypothetical question: What would the world look like if China’s exports kept rising at the same rate they are today? This scenario is purely hypothetical, but it illustrates the risk that continued Chinese export growth poses to advanced economies.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 23/09/2026
If China's exports kept rising at the same rate they are today, large trading economies with export profiles similar to China like the United States, Germany, Indonesia, and France stand to lose the most. (thread)
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 22/09/2026
Read more in our latest report unpacking the financing environment for China's AI companies:
rhg.com
Examining China's AI Financing
We examine how China’s AI firms finance their operations and evaluate their scope and sustainability, including a comparative perspective with US firms.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 22/09/2026
Guidance from China’s major hyperscalers and telecoms implies 103% y/y growth in AI capex this year to 932 billion yuan ($139B) and over 1.2 trillion yuan ($193B) in 2027, with 39% growth. ByteDance’s upgraded capex plan is the largest marginal contributor this year.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 18/09/2026
Featuring Rhodium's recent Taking Stock outlook for the future trajectory of the US energy system and greenhouse gas emissions under all current federal and state policy: rhg.com/research/tak...
rhg.com
Taking Stock 2026: US Energy and Emissions Outlook
We find that the US is on track to reduce GHG emissions by 27-41% below 2005 levels in 2040, considering all relevant federal and state policies on the books as of June 2026.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 18/09/2026
"Clean energy generation is still expected to surge over the next several years...After 2030, the sector’s growth is a lot more uncertain. While there’s a chance that record clean energy deployment continues, it could also 'slow to a trickle.'" www.latitudemedia.com/news/what-ep...
latitudemedia.com
What EPA’s climate denial means for the energy transition
Post-2030, renewables deployment is highly uncertain.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 17/09/2026
Using ARR as an aggregate revenue metric is highly imperfect, of course, but it is used widely to capture trends in rapidly growing firms. Read more in our latest report on China's AI financing:
rhg.com
Examining China's AI Financing
We examine how China’s AI firms finance their operations and evaluate their scope and sustainability, including a comparative perspective with US firms.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 17/09/2026
Annual recurring revenues (ARR) of China's frontier labs and hyperscalers’ AI model businesses have surged this year, but the total ARR for all of China’s AI models was still only around $10.7 billion, or around 10% of the recently reported levels of OpenAI and Anthropic.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 17/09/2026
US-China competition on AI is one of the biggest stories today, but there has been little focus on how China’s AI firms are financing their own expansion, or how constraints on compute and finance interact in China’s market. Our latest report explores just that:
rhg.com
Examining China's AI Financing
We examine how China’s AI firms finance their operations and evaluate their scope and sustainability, including a comparative perspective with US firms.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 14/09/2026
For the first time, China’s share of global clean tech manufacturing and industry investment dipped below one-third, although the slowdown follows years of heavy investments that have left China dominant across all major clean tech supply chains. www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/glob...
cleaninvestmentmonitor.org
Clean Investment Monitor: Global H1 2026 Update
Global clean technology investment lost momentum in the first half of 2026 after several years of relatively steady growth. Investment fell 28% from Q4 202
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 14/09/2026
Global investment in clean technology manufacturing and industrial facilities fell 14% in Q1 and another 7% in Q2 2026, continuing a downward trend underway since late 2023. Solar manufacturing accounted for a large share of the decline.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/09/2026
This has been made possible by Chinese banks keeping “zombie firms” alive through repeated loan rollovers, creating a deflationary spiral across the economy. Read more about how China's banks function as a policy tool:
rhg.com
The Banks Behind the China Shock
Beijing has not delivered on its promised reforms to its banking system, but has instead tightened control over banks and molded them into policy tools, imposing consequences on both China's economy a...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/09/2026
Across China's chemical industry, between 2021 and 2025, operating profits fell by 55% and revenues barely grew, yet liabilities increased by 43% according to data from the NBS.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 10/09/2026
Beijing has not delivered on its promised reforms to its banking system, but has instead tightened control over banks and molded them into policy tools, imposing consequences on both China's economy and its trading partners.
rhg.com
The Banks Behind the China Shock
Beijing has not delivered on its promised reforms to its banking system, but has instead tightened control over banks and molded them into policy tools, imposing consequences on both China's economy a...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 10/09/2026
Learn more in the Clean Investment Monitor's new Q1 and Q2 2026 update to our global and country-level tracking of investment in clean tech manufacturing, low-carbon industry, electric power, and clean transportation www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/glob...
cleaninvestmentmonitor.org
Clean Investment Monitor: Global H1 2026 Update
Global clean technology investment lost momentum in the first half of 2026 after several years of relatively steady growth. Investment fell 28% from Q4 202
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 10/09/2026
China accounted for 88% of the global clean investment decline in Q1 2026, with investment down by half from Q4 2025 and 19% below Q1 2025. This came after a surge in Q4 2025 investment ahead of reduced subsidies and incentives supporting renewables and EVs.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 10/09/2026
The pace of global clean tech investment growth is leveling off after years of relatively steady expansion. From 2018-2025, investment experienced a relatively steady upward trend. That momentum may be flagging somewhat as investment in Q1 and Q2 2026 crept back to levels last seen in 2024.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 02/09/2026
Has China made more progress toward consumption-led growth than commonly recognized? Join Rhodium Group's Daniel Rosen on September 30 at @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org for a discussion with PIIE's Nicholas Lardy on China's consumption:
asiasociety.org
Does China Really Need to Consume More? A Debate with Nicholas Lardy and Daniel Rosen
Join us for a debate on the future of China’s economic growth and whether greater household consumption is essential to sustainable rebalancing.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 28/08/2026
Chinese FDI in US clean tech suffered a flurry of divestment in Q2 2026: Boviet Solar, JinkoSolar, and AESC partly or fully sold their plants in North Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee. See the latest on Chinese investment:
cbm.rhg.com
China Doubles Down on Mining: Q2 2026 Update
Mining dominated announced Chinese outbound investment in Q2 2026, driven by new acquisitions and the expansion of previously acquired operations. Automotive investment is gradually recovering, led by...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 24/08/2026
Nuclear energy capacity is poised to expand in the US if the government and industry can overcome supply chain and financial barriers. However, this energy renaissance will only be possible if key investments are made in precise segments of the critical mineral value chain.
rhg.com
Critical Mineral Chokepoints Could Threaten the US Nuclear Energy Renaissance
We provide a granular, product-specific assessment of critical minerals needed for a US nuclear power plant build-out through the mid-2030s and associated key supply chain vulnerabilities.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 13/08/2026
In new analysis, we calculate the critical mineral requirements for a US nuclear build-out of Generation 3+ reactors. A careful review of supply chains reveals potential chokepoints, especially if there is a surge in demand from a large number of nuclear projects. rhg.com/research/cri...
rhg.com
Critical Mineral Chokepoints Could Threaten the US Nuclear Energy Renaissance
We provide a granular, product-specific assessment of critical minerals needed for a US nuclear power plant build-out through the mid-2030s and associated key supply chain vulnerabilities.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/08/2026
Manufacturing investment increased 4% from Q1 2026, breaking a six-quarter streak of declines, but down 24% relative to Q2 2025. $25bn was invested in clean energy production and industrial decarbonization in Q2 2026, remaining flat from Q1. www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-q...
cleaninvestmentmonitor.org
Clean Investment Monitor: US Q2 2026 Update
In the second quarter of 2026, clean energy and transportation investment in the United States totaled $75 billion, a 22% increase from Q1 2026 and a 4% ju
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/08/2026
Zero-emission vehicle sales increased 28% from Q1 2026, but was down 3% relative to Q2 2025. Distributed electricity generation and storage investment reached nearly $12 billion in Q2 2026, marking the highest quarter on record, with residential battery storage installations accounting for 75%.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 11/08/2026
In the second quarter of 2026, clean energy and transportation investment in the US totaled $75 billion, a 22% increase from Q1 2026 and the second-highest quarter of investments on record. The increase was largely driven by consumer spending on clean technologies.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 05/08/2026
Read our full layer-by-layer dissection of AI tech competition:
rhg.com
Fighting Hubris in AI Strategy: A Layer-by-Layer Dissection of AI Tech Stack Competition
Policy attention has fixated on chips, the cloud, and models. But crafting a durable AI strategy will require a broader approach reconciling industrial capacity, geopolitical realities, and rapid evol...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 05/08/2026
Reva Goujon joined Bloomberg's David Ingles and Avril Hong to discuss our latest report on why policymakers need to broaden their lens to the full stack when it comes to AI competition with China:
bloomberg.com
Watch Rhodium: China Leads US in Key Tech Stack Areas - Bloomberg
A Rhodium Group analysis shows China leads the US and other G7 nations in several key areas of AI development, despite lagging behind in chips. Reva Goujon, a director at the group and co-author of th...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 04/08/2026
In new analysis, we model the economic impacts of expanding 45X to cover additional grid and firm clean-power components—specifically those for advanced nuclear, fusion, advanced conductors, and transformers, each foundational to a modernized, reliable grid. rhg.com/research/imp...
rhg.com
Manufacturing Growth and Grid Modernization: Impacts of Expanding 45X
For all its success, the Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (45X) is limited in scope, omitting technologies that have become increasingly important. This analysis models the economic impacts of...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 04/08/2026
Since the Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (45X) was enacted, the US has seen billions of dollars in investment across its clean energy manufacturing base. But for all its success, the credit is limited in scope, omitting technologies that have become increasingly important.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 04/08/2026
In our latest report, we break down where the US and G7+ stand compared to China across eight layers of the AI tech stack, from the minerals and energy that power everything to the hardware that will diffuse AI into the real economy: rhg.com/research/fig...
rhg.com
Fighting Hubris in AI Strategy: A Layer-by-Layer Dissection of AI Tech Stack Competition
Policy attention has fixated on chips, the cloud, and models. But crafting a durable AI strategy will require a broader approach reconciling industrial capacity, geopolitical realities, and rapid evol...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 04/08/2026
Policymakers in the AI space have been narrowly focused on the most visible parts of the system: chips, cloud, and models. But to craft a durable AI strategy, policymakers need to reconcile industrial capacity, geopolitical realities, and rapid evolution of the technology.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 03/08/2026
But after 2030, the grid’s trajectory diverges significantly across our scenarios. Renewable additions hold near 53 GW/year through 2040 in the low-emissions case, but fall to just 3 GW/year in the high-emissions case as cheap natural gas takes over. From our new outlook: rhg.com/research/tak...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 03/08/2026
We project that a historic influx of renewables comes online between now and 2030, in response to surging electricity demand and in time to claim federal tax credits before they expire. 48-50 GW of solar, wind, and storage are deployed on average through 2030, in line with 2025's record of 50 GW.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 03/08/2026
India now faces a geopolitical moment of opportunity as barriers to Chinese goods rise. We analyze what will need to happen for India to capitalize in our latest note: rhg.com/research/can...
rhg.com
Can India Finally Realize Its Manufacturing Ambitions?
Trade deals with the EU and potentially the US, alongside other countries’ rising barriers to Chinese goods, offer India an opportunity to capture global export share, even as its manufacturing ecosys...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 03/08/2026
India has seen some success in sectors it targeted for export growth, like smartphones and solar panels. Its Production-Linked Incentive program provided funds that helped companies break ground on capital-intensive projects.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 31/07/2026
India now faces a geopolitical moment that may allow it to replicate some of the success it has had in specific industries like electronics. We outline the key things India will need to do to seize on this window of opportunity:
rhg.com
Can India Finally Realize Its Manufacturing Ambitions?
Trade deals with the EU and potentially the US, alongside other countries’ rising barriers to Chinese goods, offer India an opportunity to capture global export share, even as its manufacturing ecosys...
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 31/07/2026
When the US-China trade war began in 2018, India was widely expected to be a top beneficiary of shifting supply chains. But it has lagged well behind Vietnam and Mexico in capturing manufacturing value added and absorbing China's declining share of US imports.
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Rhodium Group @rhg.com · 30/07/2026
Can India finally realize its manufacturing ambitions? New trade deals and other countries’ rising barriers to Chinese goods offer India an opportunity to capture global export share, even as its manufacturing ecosystem remains less competitive.
rhg.com
Can India Finally Realize Its Manufacturing Ambitions?
Trade deals with the EU and potentially the US, alongside other countries’ rising barriers to Chinese goods, offer India an opportunity to capture global export share, even as its manufacturing ecosys...
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