Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 25/01/2026Worst Day So Far SITREP - Authoritarian Consolidation Last Update Jan 24, 7:11 PM · LLM Dec 1, 2025–Jan 23, 2026 (54d searched) 172
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 24/01/2026Worst Day So Far SITREP - Authoritarian Consolidation Last Update Jan 23, 11:22 PM LLM Dec 1, 2025–Jan 23, 2026 (54d searched) 110
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 22/01/2026Today is the public launch of Worst Day So Far I built it to solve a simple problem that I faced, and I suspect many of you face as well. Please check it out and let me know what you think, and what would make it more useful to you. 140
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 22/01/2026WorstDaySoFar.com Daily summary and tracking of US mass rights violations and democratic collapse Disappearances, warrantless detentions, dragnets, political prosecutions, and 250+ other types of events Fully automated and community funded 161
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 29/09/2025🟢 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸 — 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁 (𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗼𝘁𝗲 / 𝗔𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻) → rexdouglass.com 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗱𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗮 𝟭‑𝗶𝗻‑𝟭,𝟬𝟬𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬+ 𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗼? You 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗳𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸. #ComputerVision #ActiveLearning #DatasetCuration #MLOps #VideoAnalytics #Manufacturing #AppliedScience 240
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassRex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 26/09/2025🟢 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸 — 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁 · Remote / Austin 🎞️ 𝗦𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗲𝘀 tinyurl.com/yxr7k5f8 🚧 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁 Completely unsupervised segmentation + labeling of parts, tools, and people in manufacturing. I demo it on a random “How It’s Made” fire-extinguisher video. 🧰 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸 DINO · SAM-2 · Gemini · YOLO 131
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 26/09/2025🟢 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸 — 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁 · Remote / Austin 🎞️ 𝗦𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗲𝘀 tinyurl.com/yxr7k5f8 🚧 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁 Completely unsupervised segmentation + labeling of parts, tools, and people in manufacturing. I demo it on a random “How It’s Made” fire-extinguisher video. 🧰 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸 DINO · SAM-2 · Gemini · YOLO 131
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassRex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 24/09/2025Help! ─ 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁 open to work ─ Remote/Austin → www.rexdouglass.com With new tools, I've been cooking: ▸ Machine-vision pipelines — RIOS Intelligent Machines ▸ Information-extraction pipelines — Microsoft ▸ Interactive SMS surveys — Pantheon Insights 196
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 24/09/2025Help! ─ 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁 open to work ─ Remote/Austin → www.rexdouglass.com With new tools, I've been cooking: ▸ Machine-vision pipelines — RIOS Intelligent Machines ▸ Information-extraction pipelines — Microsoft ▸ Interactive SMS surveys — Pantheon Insights 196
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 15/09/2025Some ML Engineer at YouTube must handle just kids home for the holidays unsubscribing their parents from all the right wing channels. 040
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 13/09/202590% of machine learning is data cleaning. 192
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 06/09/2025Who turned America's military against Americans? I'm tracking 313+ instances of support/opposition to the use of armed forces in domestic law enforcement in a new dataset: "Public Positions on Militarization of Domestic Law Enforcement in the U.S." docs.google.com/spreadsheets...docs.google.comPublic Positions on Militarization of Domestic Law Enforcement in the U.S. 050
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 28/08/2025Public Positions on Militarization of Domestic Law Enforcement in the U.S. t.co/P5HmsHF1fA 010
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 14/08/2025Just the direct material costs for each additional year of war to Ukraine are about $111.7B or just over half their entire GDP burned per year 🚩$50B (25% of prewar GDP) to wartime defense spending over peace time levels 🚩$61.7B (30.8%) in direct destruction of things/sectors of the economy by Russia 140
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 14/08/2025This is absolutely nuts: 🚩30% of Ukraine's population is either internally displaced, a refugee outside of the country, or under Russian occupation. 🚩About 14% of the population's homes have been destroyed. Each additional year of war destroys about another 3%. 050
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 13/08/2025Each additional year of war in Ukraine implies an additional: 7,953 Civilians Directly Killed 12,822 Civilians Directly Injured 061
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 13/08/2025The bargaining model of war only has a few parameters. I'm often annoyed that the cost of fighting receives less serious measurement than military weapons/strategy. Then I remembered I pay $700 a month for LLMs, so here's the first in a series on Ukraine's costs from fighting. 070
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 13/04/2025Recently had a debate about two-way fixed effects and how it pretends to magically solve causal inference problems by just changing to a different DV than the one we actually care about. Here's that explained visually. Here's raw annual city temperatures: 181
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassPosit @posit.co · 03/03/2025We are delighted to announce Reticulate 1.41! You can now simply declare your dependencies using `py_require()`, and Reticulate will handle the rest. This seamless experience is powered by uv, an extremely fast #Python package manager written in Rust. Learn more: posit.co/blog/reticul... #RStats 012229
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassData Rescue Project #DataRescue @datarescueproject.org · 06/02/2025Big Shout Out to Andrew Heiss at Georgia State: an API for grabbing the USAID data: foreignassistance-data.andrewheiss.com USAID greenbook: foreignassistance.andrewheiss.com/greenbook.htmlforeignassistance-data.andrewheiss.comDatasette: 2025-02-03_foreign-assistance 1268
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 26/01/2025There's been some confusion about whether the new DeepSeek-R1 open source model includes a political propaganda/censorship layer baked in. It does. Here's what it does in its own words and the experiments to reproduce. 270
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassRobert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 03/01/2025Yes, I talk about this issue in my blog post: www.robertkubinec.com/post/fixed_e... Stata has similar behavior. It's a very big deal with two-way FEs.robertkubinec.comWhat Panel Data Is Really All About – Robert KubinecIn this post I talk about my recent publication with Jonathan Kropko about panel data. We de-mistify panel data, expose some serious weaknesses in common models like two-way fixed effects (2-way FE), ... 2112
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassNate Breznau @breznaunate.bsky.social · 17/12/2024Only 6% of papers using SOEP data share their reproduction workflows. We need #openscience now @janmarcus.de onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...onlinelibrary.wiley.comReplication code availability over time and across fields: Evidence from the German Socio‐Economic PanelProviding replication code is an inexpensive way to facilitate reproducibility. However, little is known about the extent of replication code provision. Therefore, we examine the availability of repl.... 0157
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassAlexander Lex @alex-lex.bsky.social · 18/10/2024UpSet won the #ieeevis InfoVis 10-year test of time award 🎉. Thanks to @ngehlenborg.bsky.social @henstr.bsky.social Romain Vuillemot, and Hanspeter Pfister for being an awesome team to work with on this. I wrote up my reflections on what made UpSet successful: vdl.sci.utah.edu/blog/2024/10...vdl.sci.utah.eduReflections on UpSetThis blog post was triggered by UpSet winning the 10-year Test of Time Award at IEEE VIS. In this post, I reflect on how UpSet came about, and what made it successful. 13514
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassNils Weidmann @nilsweidmann.bsky.social · 09/12/2024And make sure to check out our demo application: huggingface.co/spaces/ciass...huggingface.coProtest Segments - a Hugging Face Space by ciassDiscover amazing ML apps made by the community 001
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassNils Weidmann @nilsweidmann.bsky.social · 09/12/2024Finally out in @polanalysis.bsky.social (w/ @stefan-scholz.bsky.social, @zacharyst.bsky.social, @keremoglu.bsky.social and Bastian Goldlücke): "Improving Computer Vision Interpretability: Transparent Two-Level Classification for Complex Scenes" Available #OpenAccess at doi.org/10.1017/pan....doi.orgImproving Computer Vision Interpretability: Transparent Two-Level Classification for Complex Scenes | Political Analysis | Cambridge CoreImproving Computer Vision Interpretability: Transparent Two-Level Classification for Complex Scenes 1155
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 06/12/2024Ah, I found what I was looking for! From Imai et al.'s "Unpacking the Black Box of Causality" (2011). This is coming from the angle of two experiments in which you identify A -> B and B -> C and why you cannot infer the average causal mediation effect from that. 4297
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassBerna Devezer @devezer.bsky.social · 15/09/2023🧵 I'll talk up a recent paper I loved working on. We show why meaningful replications need to be based on deeper theoretical understanding & stronger empirical foundations. It's a theory paper like our other metascientific work. 🧪 #metasci #philsci #stats royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.... 310035
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 05/12/2024New post on the 100% Christmas Interval -- after almost 8 years, it's time that we finally talk about CIs. www.the100.ci/2024/12/05/w...the100.ciWhy you are not allowed to say that your 95% confidence interval contains the true parameter with a probability of 95%A shibboleth is a custom, such as a choice of phrasing, that distinguishes one group of people from another. The term goes back to the Hebrew Bible, in which the inhabitants of Gilead identify members... 24298101
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassRobert Aboukhalil @robert.bio · 04/12/2024“We don’t value software, data, and methods in the same way we value papers, even though those resources empower millions of scientists” 💯 www.statnews.com/sponsor/2024...statnews.comNew report highlights the scientific impact of open source softwareTwo of the scientists who won this year’s Nobel Prize for cracking the code of proteins’ intricate structures relied, in part, on a series of computing 316172
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassAdam L @adam-lg.bsky.social · 04/12/2024Looking forward to reading this! "The Landscape of Causal Discovery Data: Grounding Causal Discovery in Real-World Applications" arxiv.org/abs/2412.01953 #stats #mlsky #blueskai 📈📉 2175
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassClaas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 02/12/2024On OOD: arxiv.org/abs/2211.16158 and I especially love this one: openreview.net/pdf?id=XCS_z... For more optimistic reads on uncertainty, most stuff by Ian Osband on uncertainty for (Deep) RL scholar.google.ca/citations?us...arxiv.orgOut-Of-Distribution Detection Is Not All You NeedThe usage of deep neural networks in safety-critical systems is limited by our ability to guarantee their correct behavior. Runtime monitors are components aiming to identify unsafe predictions and di... 011
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassClaas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 02/12/2024arxiv.org/pdf/2409.02628 For problems with ensemble methods proceedings.mlr.press/v162/lotfi22... For issues with ML metrics (and, for drama, this reply iclr-blogposts.github.io/2024/blog/cl...) This lab has a collection of works www.vanderschaar-lab.com/uncertainty-... (pretty biased of course)arxiv.org 221
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassVincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 02/12/2024Our JSS article is out! And now I get to focus on {marginaleffects} 1.0.0. Stay tuned. www.jstatsoft.org/article/view... 13379112
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 01/12/2024Lab Experiment for Kids #3 Steel Wool and 9v Battery Ok seriously, I need more experiment suggestions. 010
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassAdam L @adam-lg.bsky.social · 01/12/2024Have you seen this? www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/1... (not proximal, but looks cool nonetheless)taylorfrancis.comBayesian Nonparametrics for Causal Inference and Missing Data | MichaeBayesian Nonparametrics for Causal Inference and Missing Data provides an overview of flexible Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) methods for modeling joint or 151
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassStephen Wild @stephenjwild.bsky.social · 01/12/2024Looks like this might be worth a careful read: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...sciencedirect.comFrom LATE to ATE: A Bayesian approachWe develop a Bayesian model that produces a posterior distribution of the marginal treatment effect (MTE) function. The method provides researchers wi… 4344
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassJennifer Tackett @jnfrltackett.bsky.social · 01/12/2024Preregistration is a floor, not a ceiling: Use it to specify initial analyses with the understanding that you can and should go further when you see unexpected patterns in the data. Gelman & Brown journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....journals.sagepub.comSage Journals: Discover world-class researchSubscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher. 3438
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassDan Quintana @dsquintana.bsky.social · 21/11/2024“…we systematically examined articles in four top psychology journals (N = 956) and found that 21% included open-ended data coded by humans. However, only about one-third of those articles reported sufficient details to replicate or evaluate the validity of the coding process” 1197
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 01/12/2024Step 1: I show you a cheap-ish lab experiment for kids. Step 2: You give me ideas for what we should try next. 120
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassStephen Wild @stephenjwild.bsky.social · 30/11/2024And another post on causal inference and social media and its effect on mental health. DAGs make a prominent appearance. As always, feedback welcome (especially if you think I am wrong). sjwild.github.io/blog/2024/11...sjwild.github.ioCausal inference, social media, and mental health, part 3Stephen Wild’s personal blog about statistics, data science, and the like. 76611
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassRichard McElreath 🐈⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 30/11/2024I am running my statistical rethinking course again starting in January. But this time just for Leipzig locals, so I can work with a smaller group this year and track individual progress better. I think that will help me tune the material, espeically homework, better. Materials still open however.github.comGitHub - rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2025Contribute to rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2025 development by creating an account on GitHub. 725049
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassSimon Willison @simon.fedi.simonwillison.net.ap.brid.gy · 29/11/2024Amazing demo by Vaibhav Srivastav of structured data extraction running on an LLM that executes entirely in the browser (Chrome only for the moment since it uses WebGPU). simonwillison.net/2024/Nov/29/struc…simonwillison.netStructured Generation w/ SmolLM2 running in browser & WebGPUExtraordinary demo by Vaibhav Srivastav. Here's Hugging Face's [SmolLM2-1.7B-Instruct](https://huggingface.co/HuggingFaceTB/SmolLM2-1.7B-Instruct) running directly in a web browser (using WebGPU, so requires Chrome [for the moment](https://github.com/gpuweb/gpuweb/wiki/Implementation-Status)) demonstrating structured text extraction, converting a text … 0236
Rex "garbage in" Douglass @rexdouglass.bsky.social · 28/11/2024Pro Tip: Uninformative priors don't look anything like you expect in the sample space of the actual outcome. Don't just pick priors in the blind, simulate the full null model with just priors, and verify it makes predictions like you expected in your head. 1263
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassSohee Yang @soheeyang.bsky.social · 27/11/2024🚨 New Paper 🚨 Can LLMs perform latent multi-hop reasoning without exploiting shortcuts? We find the answer is yes – they can recall and compose facts not seen together in training or guessing the answer, but success greatly depends on the type of the bridge entity (80% for country, 6% for year)! 1/N 36614
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" Douglassklaudia jaźwińska @klaudia.bsky.social · 27/11/2024I have a new piece out with @aisvarya17.bsky.social in @columjournreview.bsky.social in which we test how OpenAI's new search feature surfaces and attributes news content. Our findings were not promising for news publishers (1/9) www.cjr.org/tow_center/h...cjr.orgHow ChatGPT (Mis)represents Publisher ContentChatGPT search — which is positioned as a competitor to search engines like Google and Bing — launched with a press release from OpenAI touting claims that the company had “collaborated extensively wi... 817584
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglasseLife @elife.bsky.social · 26/11/20242/ To kick off the thread, here are 22 persuasive communication devices that you should watch out for when writing or reading a research article. buff.ly/3Z9Mb5Cbuff.lyPoint of View: Beware ‘persuasive communication devices’ when writing and reading scientific articlesAuthors should be open about the limitations of their work and not overstate its importance. 22512
Reposted by Rex "garbage in" DouglassRichard McElreath 🐈⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 27/11/2024How does Approximate Bayesian Computation *ABC) work? @rabaath.bsky.social has a classic nice simple intro the ABC using the problem of infering the number of socks in a sample of laundry. There's a movie and a page with all the code. www.sumsar.net/blog/2015/07...sumsar.netTiny Data, Approximate Bayesian Computation and the Socks of Karl Broman: The MovieThis is a screencast of my UseR! 2015 presentation: Tiny Data, Approximate Bayesian Computation and the Socks of Karl Broman. Based on the original blog post it is a quick’n’dirty … 29117