iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Using Berkeley Earth data had my head spinning until I finally realised the data has been adjusted (I assume for solid reasons) Overlaying the 2024 report (berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...) and 2025 report (berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...), the line is about 0.07°C lower than previously reported

Two graphs of global warming overlayed.
The first graph is from Berkeley Earth, showing data up to 2024
Source: https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/
The second graph is from Berkeley Earth, showing data up to 2025
Source: https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2025/

The overlay shows that Berkeley Earth data now shows global warming is about 0.077°C lower than previous reported.

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Global Temperature Anomalies over the previous 365 days: * 93% over 1.3°C * 50% over 1.5°C * 8% over 1.7°C Back above 50% > 1.5°C, and climbing. Lots of 1.5°C markers will fall in the next few months: 4-year average, 1,000 days over 1.5°C, loess-30-year-trend #ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling

Graph showing percent of days (in the last 365 days) over various global warming milestones.
> X-Axis is the date 1st Jan 2000 until 1st October 2026.
> Y-Axis is the percentage of the preceding 365 days, which are above different global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomaly milestones.

Example
On 1st October 2026, the previous 365 days had:
* 100.0% days over 1.1°C
* 99.5% days over 1.2°C
* 92.9% days over 1.3°C
* 72.9% days over 1.4°C
* 50.1% days over 1.5°C
* 24.4% days over 1.6°C
* 7.7% days over 1.7°C
* 1.4% days over 1.8°C
* 0.0% days over 1.9°C

> The plot looks like a set of coloured waves, where each wave is a different GMST anomaly (0.2°C, 0.3°C, etc), and shows the temperatures increasing and decreasing over roughly 5 year periods, but overall they keep getting hotter over time.
> The Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly values, come from Copernicus ERA5, and use the 1850-1900 "Pre-Industrial" baseline.
> This graphic is an update, to the ones I posted in September 2024, February 2025, March 2025, June 2025, November 2025, March 2026, July 2026
> How the graph was created:
https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/warming-tapestry-percent-days-over-milestone/

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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 17/09/2026

47 years of average annual sea ice thickness across the #Arctic... 🌊❄️🥼 Graphic now available to include 2025 at: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...

Collection of small polar stereographic maps showing the average yearly Arctic sea-ice thickness for each year from 1979 to 2025. There is large spatial variability, but a long-term decreasing trend. The thickness of ice ranges from 0 meters to more than 5 meters.

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Ingmar Rentzhog @ingmar.wsocial.eu · 13/09/2026

This graph should be front-page news. It shows an El Niño developing faster than the strongest previous events, with a forecast that climbs higher still. I’m worried. Why isn’t this getting more attention?

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

The top 50 warmest days on record are now all 17°C or above (Daily Global Mean Surface Temperature). Back in 1987, the top 200 warmest days were spread over 48 years. The top 200 warmest days are now all within the last 11 years.

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

The scenarios @zekehausfather.com posted (H, M HL, ML) all have heating continuing until at least 2075, so those scenarios would presumably mean deeper red colours in the future.

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

950 individual days have been 1.5°C or more, above the Pre-Industrial baseline. @zekehausfather.com puts 2026 at 50:50 to be the hottest year on record. The cumulative count could cross 1,000 days over 1.5°C this year, more days over 1.75°C and maybe even some days over 2.00°C.

Graph purpose: Show both the individual days of global warming, and the longer term trends.
X-Axis: Years, from Jan 1940 until 25th August 2026
Y-Axis: Cumulative number of days above different global warming milestones (Log scale, from 0 to 16,000 days).
Additional information: The Dates at which the Global Warming trend line (Loess 30 year window trend line) crossed different Global Warming Milestones.
E.g. by 25th August 2026, there have cumulatively been 950 individual days at-or-above 1.5°C Global Warming.
E.g. in August 1985, the Loess trend line for the Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly crossed 0.5°C.
Note that these Loess dates shift a bit as new data comes in.
For instance, Summer 2025 a bit cooler (than 2023/2024), and this was enough to shift the date for passing 1.00°C from Dec 2011 to Jan 2012 (in practice this was a shift of 3 days).
The Graphs includes Global Warming Milestones: 0.5°C, 0.75°C, 1°C, 1.25°C, 1.5°C, 1.75°C, 2.0°C
Data used: Copernicus ERA5 with 1850-1900 baseline (Pre-Industrial) Graph Design Details on website: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/1000-day-climate-graphic-design/ Note the log scale on the Y-Axis. This allows the graph to show that the number of days above 0.5°C, 0.75°C etc ... keep going up, but it allows the focus to go on the higher temperatures that are happening more recently.
Note that this graph annotates numbers “>=“, however it is actually: round to 2 decimal places, and then use ">=", so 1.495°C will count as being 1.5 which is “>=“ 1.5°C. I did this, as it was the only way I could get the numbers to match the 6 days that Copernicus reported as being at least 2°C.

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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

The CRU scPDSI drought index suggests that global drought area expanded rapidly after mid-2019 and then remained above the long-term mean. Global extent of drought conditions during 2025 declined slightly compared with 2024 and was below the preceding peak observed during the second half of 2023.

Figure show time series of the percentage of global land area (excluding ice sheets and deserts) with self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) indicating moderate (< –2), severe (< –3), and extreme (< –4) drought for each month of 1950–2025. It shows periods with small drought extents (e.g. late 1950s, around 1980, late 1990s) and periods with large drought extents (e.g. mid 1980s, early 2000s, post 2019).

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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

European summers aren't what they used to be! Grey curve is the climate of 1950-90. Every coloured line is a summer since 1991. Every one since 2005 sits beyond the 95th percentile of the curve. This isn't a shifting #climate. It's already a new one! 🤯🥵 Plot inspired by Barriopedro et al. 2011

Distribution of European summer temperature anomalies, June to August, over 25°W-40°E, 35-70°N, land only, the region used by Barriopedro et al., relative to 1961-1990, from ERA5. Grey bars show the 41 summers from 1950 to 1990, with a normal curve fitted through them, centred near zero. Coloured vertical lines show every summer from 1991 to 2025, shaded yellow through dark red by year, and almost all of them fall to the right of the grey distribution. The ten warmest are labelled, with 2024 furthest right at 2.74°C and 2022 next at 2.54°C. A dotted line marks the 95th percentile of the 1950-1990 distribution at 0.76°C.

Both run long, which is fine, since alt text has no practical limit and screen reader users benefit from the detail.

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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 26/07/2026

Breaking News! Code: y-Axis Alert! / UFB!!! On July 25th, global sea-surface temperatures set a record high anomaly of 0.80°C above the 1991-2020 mean, breaking the previous record of 0.76°C set in January, 2024. I had to extend the y-axis to show yesterday's SST anomaly.

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

July 2026 Update - So far 2026 has been in and around the 1.5C global warming milestone. What will the December update bring, as El Nino presumably starts to affect us? Data: Copernicus ERA 5 - @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social #ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Global Temperature Anomalies over the previous 365 days: * 100% over 1.1°C * 35% over 1.5°C * 3% over 1.7°C Has the 365 day running average bottomed out? Will the much discussed El Nino start to drive temperatures up again? #ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling

Graph showing percent of days (in the last 365 days) over various global warming milestones.
> X-Axis is the date 1st Jan 2000 until 6th July 2026.
> Y-Axis is the percentage of the preceding 365 days, which are above different global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomaly milestones.

Example
On 6th July 2026, the previous 365 days had:
* 100.0% days over 1.1C
* 96.2% days over 1.2C
* 84.7% days over 1.3C
* 60.8% days over 1.4C
* 34.8% days over 1.5C
* 14.0% days over 1.6C
* 3.3% days over 1.7C
* 0.8% days over 1.8C
* 0.0% days over 1.9C

> The plot looks like a set of coloured waves, where each wave is a different GMST anomaly (0.2C, 0.3C, etc), and shows the temperatures increasing and decreasing over roughly 5 year periods, but overall they keep getting hotter over time.
> The Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly values, come from Copernicus ERA5, and use the 1850-1900 "Pre-Industrial" baseline.
> This graphic is an update, to the ones I posted in September 2024, February 2025, March 2025, June 2025, November 2025, March 2026
> How the graph was created:
https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/warming-tapestry-percent-days-over-milestone/

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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 04/07/2026

Hotter and hotter and hotter www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

New records set in many European countries

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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 01/07/2026

Human-caused climate change is increasing the risk of hotter temperatures, including these dangerous heat waves. Watch the entire distribution shift to the right. I'm afraid these headlines about record heat are only going to become more common. 🌡️ Visualization by svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5613/

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

The 3.5 Year Average for Global Warming is passing 1.5C The 3 Year Average passed 1.5C less than 7 months ago The 2 Year Average passed 1.5C in November 2024 What is the longest running average, that equals 1.5C for any given date? What about Milestones: 0.5C, 0.75C, 1C, 1.25C, 1.75C Data: ERA5

Image is of a Graph
X-Axis: Years 1980 until May 2026
Y-Axis: For a Given Date, what is the longest period where the running average equals a Global Warming Milestone. The Y-Axis values are from 0-year-running-average up to 20-year-running-averageThere is one line for each of the Global Warming Milestones (0.5C, 0.75C, 1C, 1.25C, 1.5C, 1.75C)

Example: For 1.00C Global Warming (E.g. Global Surface Mean Temperature Anomaly), there is a line, which starts in 1998 and bumps along the x-axis before shooting up from around the year 2004, and reaches the top of the graph in December 2020. E.g. in 2004 the longest running average that equals 1C started to be consistently above zero. By December 2020 the longest running average that equaled 1C, was 20-year-running-average.

The overall impression of the graph, is that when the global temperature start to reach a warming milestone, you get short periods (months) where the global warming running average reaches that milestone. By the time the longest running average reaches around 3-8 years, then, the longest running average just keeps going up. One could argue that we crossed that milestone at the center date of the running average. E.g. 10years before the 20-year-running-average reached the milestone.

Further details on how the graph was created, commentary, and what sanity checks were performed are available at: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/longest-running-average/

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

+0.85C (roughly) to get Pre-Industrial global warming values, for the graph.

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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 04/05/2026

To get a bit more signal and a bit less noise, here are the global sea-surface temperatures, averaged by decade since the decade 1980-1989. What do you think the 2030s will look like? The 2040s?

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

The Arctic Sea Ice Volume is at its yearly maximum. There is a lot less thick ice than there was 22 years ago. Source: polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-a... At the time, May 2004 was considered to be a very low year for sea-ice-extent (For volume, I'm not sure) Source: theecologist.org/2016/jun/10/...

Two maps of the Arctic side by side, showing the thickness of the sea ice. The lefthand map is from May 2004, the righthand map is from May 2026. The sea ice extent is similar, but there is way less thick ice in 2026.

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Climate Graphics galore, from the "European State of the Climate 2025 report"

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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 01/04/2026

Really interesting figure putting present and future climate change in context with paleoclimate data Read the details on his substack here: open.substack.com/pub/justdean...

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

900 individual days have been 1.5C or more, above the Pre-Industrial baseline A third of the days in the last 12 months have been 1.5C or more. It will be interesting to see if we get over 1000 days in 2026. We will if the remainder of 2026 is similar to 2023 or 2024, but not if similar to 2025.

Graph purpose: Show both the individual days of global warming, and the longer term trends.
X-Axis: Years, from Jan 1940 until 30th March 2026
Y-Axis: Cumulative number of days above different global warming milestones (Log scale, from 0 to 10,000 days).
Additional information: The Dates at which the Global Warming trend line (Loess 30 year window trend line) crossed different Global Warming Milestones.
E.g. by 30th March 2026, there have cumulatively been 900 individual days at-or-above 1.5C Global Warming.
E.g. in August 1985, the Loess trend line for the Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly crossed 0.5C.
Note that these Loess dates shift a bit as new data comes in.
For instance, Summer 2025 a bit cooler (than 2023/2024), and this was enough to shift the date for passing 1.00C from Dec 2011 to Jan 2012 (in practice this was a shift of 3 days).
The Graphs includes Global Warming Milestones: 0.5C, 0.75C, 1C, 1.25C, 1.5C, 1.75C, 2.0C
Data used: Copernicus ERA5 with 1850-1900 baseline (Pre-Industrial) Graph Design Details on website: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/1000-day-climate-graphic-design/ Note the log scale on the Y-Axis. This allows the graph to show that the number of days above 0.5C, 0.75C etc ... keep going up, but it allows the focus to go on the higher temperatures that are happening more recently.
Note that this graph annotates numbers “>“, however it is actually: round to 2 decimal places, and then use ">=", so 1.495 will count as being 1.5 which is “>=“ 1.5C. I did this, as it was the only way I could get the numbers to match the 6 days that Copernicus reported as being at least 2C.

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

Selection of excellent weather and climate visualisations.

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Global Warming surging upwards in waves. The last 365 days: * 100% over 1.0C * 35% over 1.5C * 4% over 1.7C The post 2024 mega-surge still hasn't bottomed out. El Nino is rearing its head in the forecasts, hinting at higher temperatures to come? #ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling

The image is a graph.
X-Axis is the date 1st Jan 2000 until 8th March 2026.
Y-Axis is the percentage of the preceding 365 days, which are above different global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomaly milestones.

Example
On 8th March 2026, the previous 365 days had:
* 100.0% days over 1.0C
* 98.4% days over 1.1C
* 94.2% days over 1.2C
* 80.5% days over 1.3C
* 58.4% days over 1.4C
* 35.1% days over 1.5C
* 16.2% days over 1.6C
* 4.4% days over 1.7C
* 0.3% days over 1.8C
* 0.0% days over 1.9C
* 0.0% days over 2.0C

The plot looks like a set of coloured waves, where each wave is a different GMST anomaly (0.2C, 0.3C, etc), and shows the temperatures increasing and decreasing over roughly 5 year periods, but overall they keep getting hotter over time.

The Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly values, come from Copernicus ERA5, and use the 1850-1900 "Pre-Industrial" baseline.

This graphic is an update, to the ones I posted in September 2024, February 2025, March 2025, June 2025, November 2025

How the graph was created:
https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/warming-tapestry-percent-days-over-milestone/

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Neil Kaye @neilrkaye.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

We use 30 year averages to show climatology (average weather conditions). During the 20th century the UK climatology followed a path around a confined box. With #globalwarming and #climatechange they have escaped out the box. This #dataviz shows UK rainfall and temperature.

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

I was wondering when we could see our first day, first month or first year, with Global Warming above 2.5°C. Climate Scientists and Institutions have published various projections for how Global Warming might proceed. Here are a series of projections inspired by those People/Institutions. 🧵 1/x

This graph is one of a series of graphs showing when we might see the first day / month / year over various global warming milestones.

Climate Scientists and institutions have published various projections for how Global Warming might proceed.

This graph assumes a global warming of 0.306°C / Decade from now on. It is inspired by James Hansen's work.

If I use these projections and make a few assumption about natural variability, I can come up with plausible dates after which we might see the first day, first month and first year over various global warming milestones (1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C). Also, this would show dates by which we may have seen the last day, last month, last year under various Global Warming Milestones.

The graphic shows:
X-Axis: The years 1970 to 2050
Y-Axis: The Global Warming Anomaly -0.5°C to 3.0°C

There is a trend line which show the global warming from 1970 until present, and then the trend line is projected forwards to 2050, with an 0.306°C / Decade warming.

The graph also plots data from Copernicus ERA5, with daily anomalies, monthly anomalies and yearly anomalies.

The graph also plots shaded areas, which show the times where we could expect different daily/monthly/yearly anomalies to happen.

There are tables which show selected years, such as the first year we might get a year over 1.5°C, or over 2.5°C. The tables to the same for daily and monthly anomalies.

See https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/global-warming-futures-series/ for more details, and explanations of how the graph was created and what sanity checks were applied.

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John Strikart @strikart.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

If someone still was in doubt that the world is changing and the temperature is going up. This has devastating consequences for people all over the planet incl. the cities.

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

Carbon Brief collected the Global Warming Datasets for 2025 Values with common baseline (1850-1900): Average: 1.435 °C 1.45 °C NASA 1.39 °C HadCRUT5 1.41 °C NOAA 1.44 °C Berkeley Earth 1.47 °C Copernicus ERA5 1.46 °C JRA 1.44 °C DCENT 1.42 °C China-MST Source: www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the...

Table from Carbon Brief website.
Shows the Global Warming Temperature Anomaly for 2025, for eight datasets (Nasa, Hadley, NOAA, Berkeley Earth, Copernicus, JRA, DCENT, China-MST)
For each dataset, three values are shown: Firstly, the global temperature anomaly reported by the organisation. Secondly, the same but modified to use a "common baseline" (1850-1900). Thirdly, the ranking. E.g. Third hottest year in the dataset.

The values range between 1.39°C and 1.53°C, with the average around 1.43°C

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Flavio Lehner @climateflavors.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

2025 goes down as the ~3rd-warmest year on record (based on ERA5). Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).

Daily global temperature anomalies from 1940 to present, grouped by year, showing gradual global warming

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

A new version of "We need a bigger Y Axis". The Arctic Sea Ice Volume on 4th Jan 2026, is so low, that it is hiding behind the key. Source: polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-a... - by @polarportal.bsky.social

Two Images of the Arctic Sea Ice on 4th January 2026.

The main image shows a map of the Arctic Sea Ice with colours indicating the thickness of the sea ice at any point on the map.

The top right, has a graph, which shows how the Arctic Sea Ice volume throughout the year (x-axis is January to December). The graph shows one line for each of the years 2022-2026. The graph has a key (showing which colour line is which year), but the line for 2026 is going behind the key and will be hidden for a few days. Presumably, if Arctic sea ice melt continues, (then unless the key is moved), the line will be hidden for ever longer periods of time. Up to 4 months if we get near a BOE. I'm guessing they will update the graph at some point.

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 22/12/2025

How long does it take from the first appearance of a global warming milestone, to it being permanent? 2025: 3rd successive year with at least one month reaching 1.75 We have now had 32 consecutive months over 1.25C This graphic has smoothing. The last three years were 6, 11 and 6 months over 1.5C

Graph shows how many months per year are above various global warming milestones.

x-axis: 1945 to 2025 (inclusive).
y-axis: Number of months per year above a global warming milestone.

E.g. 1982 has 2 months above 0.75C GMST anomaly.

There are 6 lines, each representing a global warming milestone (0.5C, 0.75C, 1C, 1.25C, 1.5C, 1.75C). We started having global warming with months over 0.5C in 1950s, and by early 2000s all 12 months were always over 0.5C. The other lines have a similar trajectory, but different dates.

Note that smoothing is applied to make the trends less jumpy.
E.g. 2023/2024/2025 has 6/11/6 months over 1.5C respectively, but it smooths out to 8 months for 2024 and 2025.

My website has the raw-data version of this graphic.
https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/months-above-climate-milestones/

Updates compared to previous posting of this graph
* Includes 2025 data. It is now 22nd Dec 2025, and there is enough data / projections, to know (with high confidence that December 2025 will be above 1.25C and below 1.5C).
* This uses the Copernicus ERA5 Dataset with pre-industrial baseline.
* Graph runs from 1945 -> 2025 (inclusive).
* Smoothing continues to use 3-year-centred-average, (and 2-year weighted running average for 2025).

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

2025 Update. Spiralling Past 1.5C Paris Agreement Lower Limit Data: Copernicus ERA 5 - @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social #ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

Global Warming surging upwards in waves. The last 365 days: * 100% over 1.0C * 50% over 1.5C * 4% over 1.8C The post 2024 mega-surge hasn't fully bottomed out yet. What will 2026 bring us? #ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling

The image is a graph.
X-Axis is the date 1st Jan 2000 until 7th November 2025.
Y-Axis is the percentage of the preceding 365 days, which are above different global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomaly milestones.

Example
On 7th September 2025, the previous 365 days had:
* 100.0% days over 1.0C
* 98.4% days over 1.1C
* 94.8% days over 1.2C
* 84.9% days over 1.3C
* 69.6% days over 1.4C
* 50.1% days over 1.5C
* 34.2% days over 1.6C
* 16.2% days over 1.7C
* 3.6% days over 1.8C
* 0.8% days over 1.9C
* 0.0% days over 2.0C

The plot looks like a set of coloured waves, where each wave is a different GMST anomaly (0.2C, 0.3C, etc), and shows the temperatures increasing and decreasing over 5+ year periods, but overall they keep getting hotter over time.

The Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly values, come from Copernicus ERA5, and use the 1850-1900 "Pre-Industrial" baseline.

This graphic is an update, to the ones I posted in September 2024, February 2025, March 2025, June 2025

How the graph was created:
https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/warming-tapestry-percent-days-over-milestone/

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 06/11/2025

The 3 Year Average for Global Warming just passed 1.5C The 2 Year Average passed 1.5C in November 2024 I wondered: what is the longest running average, that equals 1.5C for any given date What about the other Global Warming Milestones: 0.5C, 0.75C, 1C, 1.25C, 1.75C Data: ERA5

Image is of a Graph
X-Axis: Years 1980 to 2026
Y-Axis: For a Given Date, what is the longest period where the running average equals a Global Warming Milestone. The Y-Axis values are from 0-year-running-average up to 20-year-running-averageThere is one line for each of the Global Warming Milestones (0.5C, 0.75C, 1C, 1.25C, 1.5C, 1.75C)

Example: For 1.00C Global Warming (E.g. Global Surface Mean Temperature Anomaly), there is a line, which starts in 1998 and bumps along the x-axis before shooting up from around the year 2004, and reaches the top of the graph in December 2020. E.g. in 2004 the longest running average that equals 1C started to be consistently above zero. By December 2020 the longest running average that equaled 1C, was 20-year-running-average.

The overall impression of the graph, is that when the global temperature start to reach a warming milestone, you get short periods (months) where the global warming running average reaches that milestone. By the time the longest running average reaches around 3-8 years, then, the longest running average just keeps going up. One could argue that we crossed that milestone at the center date of the running average. E.g. 10years before the 20-year-running-average reached the milestone.

Further details on how the graph was created, commentary, and what sanity checks were performed are available at: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/longest-running-average/

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

Just noticed that the Berkeley Earth data already has the 3-year average over 1.5C

A table showing the Berkeley Earth data for global warming.
It has 2022 Sept/Oct/NovDec, 2023 year, 2024 year, 2025 jan to aug
It shows that when they are all added up, the 3 year running average is over 1.5C

Contents of the table
2022 September 1.24 https://berkeleyearth.wpengine.com/september-2022-temperature-update/
2022 October 1.37 https://berkeleyearth.wpengine.com/october-2022-temperature-update/
2022 November 1.1 https://berkeleyearth.wpengine.com/november-2022-temperature-update/
2022 December 1.25 Admittedly, I can't find a reference for this. It is calculated from their raw data
2023 YEAR 1.54 https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2023/
2024 YEAR 1.62 https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/
2025 January 1.64 https://berkeleyearth.org/january-2025-temperature-update/
2025 February 1.49 https://berkeleyearth.org/february-2025-temperature-update/
2025 March 1.55 https://berkeleyearth.org/march-2025-temperature-update/
2025 April 1.49 https://berkeleyearth.org/april-2025-temperature-update/
2025 May 1.33 https://berkeleyearth.org/may-2025-temperature-update/
2025 June 1.31 https://berkeleyearth.org/june-2025-temperature-update/
2025 July 1.29 https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2025-temperature-update/
2025 August 1.42 https://berkeleyearth.org/august-2025-temperature-update/

3 year average 1.51

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

800 individual days have been at least 1.5C above the Pre-Industrial baseline Summer 2025 was largely under 1.5C > Will we pass 900 days in 2026? > Will we pass 1000 days by 2027? > Will the Loess 30-yr trend pass 1.5C before 2028? Data: Copernicus ERA5 - Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly

Graph purpose: Show both the individual days of global warming, and the longer term trends.

X-Axis: Years, from Jan 1940 until 7th Feb 2025
Y-Axis: Cumulative number of days above different global warming milestones (Log scale, from 0 to 10,000 days). For the unwary, beware the Log Scale !!
Additional information: The Dates at which the Global Warming trend line (Loess 30 year window trend line) crossed different Global Warming Milestones. E.g. by 22nd September 2025, there have cumulatively been 800 individual days above 1.5C Global Warming.
E.g. in August 1985, the Loess trend line for the Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly crossed 0.5C. Note that these dates shift a bit as new data comes in. For instance, Summer 2025 a bit cooler (than 2023/2024), and this was enough to shift the date for passing 1.00C from Dec 2011 to Jan 20212 (in practice this was a shift of 3 days).

The Graphs includes Global Warming Milestones: 0.5C, 0.75C, 1C, 1.25C, 1.5C, 1.75C, 2.0C

Data used: Copernicus ERA5 with 1850-1900 baseline (Pre-Industrial)
Graph Design Details on website:
https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/1000-day-climate-graphic-design/
Note the log scale on the Y-Axis. This allows the graph to show that the number of days above 0.5C, 0.75C etc ... keep going up, but it allows the focus to go on the higher temperatures that are happening more recently.

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Reposted by Rees Cat Ophuls

Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

The Northern Pacific Ocean is currently smashing temperature records. And it is reaching these levels far earlier than the current generation of climate models had expected. A short thread 🧵

Time series of monthly Northern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies from 1850 to August 2025 alongside multi-model expectations of the warming in this area (scenario SSP2-4.5).

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 12/09/2025

The #Arctic Annual Sea Ice Minimum isn't what it used to be. There is now a huge area of ice under 1.5m thick, and only tiny patches over 3.5m thick. @polarportal.bsky.social

Image shows two images of the Arctic Sea Ice Thickness, when the Arctic Sea Ice Volume is at its annual minimum.

Image on the left is for September 12th 2005
Taken from:
https://polarportal-prod.dmi.dk/api/v1/serve-image/sea?image_name=CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20050912.png

Image on the right is for September 12th 2025 (E.g. 20 years later).
Taken from: https://polarportal-prod.dmi.dk/api/v1/serve-image/sea?image_name=1757683101701_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20250912.png

The 2005 image on the left shows substantial areas of ice which are over 3m thick, and plenty of patches which are over 4m thick.

The 2025 image on the right shows huge areas which are below 1m thickness, and only tiny patches above 3.5m thickness.

See the main webpage, to more details:
https://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/

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Reposted by Rees Cat Ophuls

Big Bounce @bigbounce.eurosky.social · 21/06/2025

In Berlin wird es (wenig überraschend) auch wärmer. Ich finde folgende Darstellung ganz anschaulich. Mit dem Unterschied Nordost-Deutschland vs Südfrankreich kann denke ich jeder etwas anfangen.

The graph shows that in this decade Berlin was hotter than Lyon used to be in the past (60s, 70s).

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 07/06/2025

Global warming surging upwards in waves. The last 365 days: * 100% over 1.2C * 67% over 1.5C * 5% over 1.8C Last 100 days averages below 1.5C First day below 1.25C in 700 days The 2024 mega surge is over. When will the next one be? Details in Alt Text #ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling

X-Axis is the date 1st Jan 2000 until 5th June 2025.
Y-Axis is the percentage of the preceding 365 days, which are above different global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomaly milestones.

On 5th June 2025, the previous 365 days had:
* 100.0% days over 1.2C
* 98.6% days over 1.3C
* 86.0% days over 1.4C
* 67.4% days over 1.5C
* 42.7% days over 1.6C
* 20.0% days over 1.7C
* 4.7% days over 1.8C
* 0.8% days over 1.9C
* 0.0% days over 2.0C

The plot looks like a set of coloured waves, where each wave is a different GMST anomaly, and shows the temperatures increasing and decreasing over 5+ year periods, but overall they keep getting hotter over time.

The Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly values, come from Copernicus ERA5, and use the 1850-1900 "Pre-Industrial" baseline.

This graphic is an update, to the ones I posted in September 2024, February 2025, March 2025

How the graph was created:
https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/warming-tapestry-percent-days-over-milestone/

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Reposted by Rees Cat Ophuls

Kevin Pluck @kevpluck.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

Lowest global sea ice area for the date since 1979 🧪 (Just)

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Reposted by Rees Cat Ophuls

Extreme Temperatures Around the World @extremetemps.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

ENDLESS RECORD HEAT IN INDONESIA In more than 2 years, not a single day has passed without heat records in Indonesia. Today Tanah Merah broke BOTH its records of May highest minimum and maximum with 25.9/36.4 It had already broken those of all months of 2023,2024 and 2025 Crazy

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

Brutal temperatures forecast for Pakistan, by 15th May 2025.

Image showing a map of Asia, with an arrow pointing to Pakistan
The colours of the map indicate the forecast temperature (Celcius) for the 7-10 day forecast from ClimateReanalyzer.
Pakistan looks to be forecast 50C temperatures.
Image from: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/?dm_id=asia-lea2&ndays=d7-10
Taken on 9th May 2025

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 01/05/2025

The #Arctic sea ice isn't what it used to be. The area covered is similar, but now much thinner. Details in Alt Text. @polarportal.bsky.social

Image shows two images of the Arctic Sea Ice Thickness, when the Arctic Sea Ice Volume is at its annual maximum.

Image on the left is for May 1st 2005
Taken from: https://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20050501.png

Image on the right is for May 1st 2025 (E.g. 20 years later).
Taken from: https://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20250501.png

The 2005 image on the left shows substantial areas of ice which are over 4m thick.

The 2025 image on the right shows huge areas which are below 2m thickness, very few areas above 4m thickness.

See the main webpage, to more details:
https://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

I was wondering if the percentage-of-days above a global warming milestone was fairly steady, at the point the trend line passed that milestone. I settled on using percent-of-days-in-previous-7-years that were over a given milestone. An ugly, but interesting graph. Explanation in the Alt Text.

X-Axis - Dates from 1970 -> April 2025 (12th April)
Y-Axis - Cumulative days (since 1940) above global warming milestones
Data uses Copernicus ERA5 data, with anomalies above 1850-1900 pre-industrial period.

The top line is "days over 0.5C global warming anomaly"
The one-but-top line is "days over 0.75C ..."

The colours are the interesting point in this graph.
I worked out the percentage of the previous-2555-days that are over the given global warming milestone.

E.g. the top line, show that since around 2011, 100% of the previous 2555 days (7-years, 7*365 days) are above 0.5C global warming anomaly.

The vertical lines, leading down to the grey box shows what date the Loess-30-year-window trend line, passed a given global warming milestone.

It looks like, when about 20-40% of the previous 7-years are above a given global warming milestone, the loess-30-year-window trend crosses that milestone.

Overall, just one more indication that we are getting very close to the trend crossing 1.5C.

Why did I choose 7-year average? I wanted a long enough period to reduce the variations from things like the la-nina/el-nino cycle.

See:
* Dataset: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/gmst-data-sets/
* Calculating Anomalies: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/copernicus-1850-1900-baseline-daily-gmst/
* Creating cumulative graph: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/1000-day-climate-graphic-design/

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 28/03/2025

Global warming surging upwards in waves. The ENSO 3.4 line shows that El Nino's line up well, with the warming surges. The last 365 days: * 100% over 1.3C * 76% over 1.5C * 5% over 1.8C Details in Alt Text #ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling

X-Axis is the date 1st Jan 2000 until 26th March 2025.
Y-Axis is the percentage of the preceding 365 days, which are above different global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomaly milestones.

The red/blue line below the main graphic shows the ENSO 3.4 graph,
With data taken from NOAA: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/Nino34/
The Red sections show ENSO 3.4 values above zero.
The Red bumps (periods of El Nino), line up well with the warming surges.
The Blue sections show ENSO 3.4 values below zero.
The Blue dips (periods of La Nina), line up well with more subdued temperatures.

On 26th March 2025, the previous 365 days had:
* 100.0% days over 1,3C
* 93.7% days over 1.4C
* 75.6% days over 1.5C
* 47.7% days over 1.6C
* 22.7% days over 1.7C
* 4.7% days over 1.8C
* 0.8% days over 1.9C
* 0.0% days over 2.0C

The plot looks like a set of coloured waves, where each wave is a different GMST anomaly, and shows the temperatures increasing and decreasing over 5+ year periods, but overall they keep getting hotter over time.

The Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly values, come from Copernicus ERA5, and use the 1850-1900 "Pre-Industrial" baseline.

This graphic is an update, to the ones I posted in September 2024 and February 2025.

How the graph was created:
https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/warming-tapestry-percent-days-over-milestone/

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Rees Cat Ophuls @reescatophuls.bsky.social · 09/02/2025

Berkeley Earth Data shows that the Loess-15-year window trendline passed 1.5C in Jan 2025 Hyperbole warning: Other (less jumpy) trend line smoothing functions and other datasets won't get to 1.5 for a while Interesting, for the climate data nerds though Details in Alt Text

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