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Umberto Profazio

@profazio.bsky.social
145 followers 217 following 394 posts

Part Time Analyst / Full Time Dad - Personal views on Libya, Maghreb, NorthAfrica and surroundings - Bylines @ IISS + NDCF 🇬🇧 🇮🇹

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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
The regional security landscape in the Gulf is shifting - and the consequences of the Iran war on Iraq are still unfolding in unpredictable ways. In the latest issue of Strategic South you will find a preview of my Gulf Strategic Trend on the destabilising consequences of the Gulf war in Iraq. /1
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
The new Gulf war is hitting the petromonarchies where it hurts most: their future Attacks against critical infrastructure - such as energy facilities, oil and gas fields, and refineries - are not only plunging the global economy into an energy shock reminiscent of the oil crisis of the 70s. /1
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Iraq is caught between a rock and a hard place With the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Baghdad isn't just feeling the heat of the new Gulf war. It is facing a fundamental threat to its economic lifeline. /1
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Minacce ibride e instabilità: cosa sta succedendo in Africa e Medio Oriente? 🌍 La pubblicazione dell'ultimo report del The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE) è stata l'occasione per un'intervista approfondita su AfricaOggi. /1
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
As the Gulf conflict destabilises global energy, a second, invisible war has emerged in the Mediterranean Sea. Above and beneath the water surface, Ukrainian drones are now hunting Russian vessels. /1
linkedin.com
A shadow war in the Mediterranean
As the Gulf conflict destabilises global energy, a second, invisible war has emerged in the Mediterranean Sea. Above and beneath the water surface, Ukrainian drones are now hunting Russian vessels bel...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
'In 2011, foreign powers intervened to overthrow Gaddafi. This is what they built. As bombs fall on Iran and the architects of yet another intervention promise that force will deliver freedom, Libya stands as the parable they refuse to read.' @theguardian.com
theguardian.com
Power without a throne: how Khalifa Haftar controls Libya
The long read: When Nato helped overthrow Gaddafi in 2011, there were hopes of a new beginning. More than a decade later, this former CIA asset runs the country – and Libya has become yet another less...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Un uomo solo al comando 🌍 Gibuti è un piccolo Stato, ma situato in un quadrante strategico come il Mar Rosso. /1
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
L'Iran e la nuova corsa all'Africa Per l'ultimo episodio di Africa Oggi (il podcast di #Nigrizia), ho analizzato come lo scontro tra Israele, Stati Uniti e Iran stia ridisegnando gli equilibri del continente africano. /1
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Regional instability creates the perfect vacuum for hybrid threats. 🛡️ I am really glad to have contributed again to The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE), providing expert insights for the Trend Report 11 on the Middle East and North Africa. /1
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Challenging times ahead. Macron's update to France's nuclear doctrine marks a historic shift - increasing warheads and deepening forward deterrence with close partners, especially the EU and UK. It is in line with the turbulent international landscape of today. @lemonde.fr #France
lemonde.fr
La dissuasion nucléaire française fait un grand pas vers l’Europe
Dans son discours à la base navale de l’île Longue, lundi, Emmanuel Macron a mis l’accent sur la coopération et la solidarité avec des alliés de la France sur le Vieux Continent, dévoilé un nouveau co...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Segnali di apertura. L'intervista esclusiva concessa a Tel Quel dall'ambasciatore d'Italia a Rabat Pasquale Salzano rappresenta un passaggio importante nelle relazioni tra Italia e Marocco. /1
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
In un contesto particolarmente complesso e complicato come quello libico, occorre fare particolarmente attenzione a come si presenta una notizia. Nonostante il merito di portare alla luce un episodio importante, passato quasi inosservato, la ricostruzione dell'ANSA è alquanto lacunosa. /1
ansa.it
In Libia uomini armati irrompono in sedi giudiziarie a Tripoli - Cronaca - Ansa.it
Consiglio supremo trasferisce a Bengasi funzioni chiave dopo l'assalto (ANSA)
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
'Israel has barred international media from independently entering Gaza since the war started in October 2023. This has not changed since the signing of the Gaza ceasefire, which came into effect last October.' @middleeasteye-rss.bsky.social #Gaza www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-...
middleeasteye.net
Israel killed most journalists worldwide in 2025
Committee to Protect Journalists reports a record number of journalists killed last year, with 86 dying in Israeli attacks
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
'In aging authoritarian systems, blows from outside often consolidate the security apparatus, sharpen nationalist rhetoric and justify further centralization. Hardship can intensify anger, but it can also reinforce risk aversion in a population already wary of chaos.' @newlinesmag.bsky.social #Iran
newlinesmag.com
Iran Is Not on the Brink of Revolution, It Has Entered a Long Decline
Those who view current events in the Islamic republic through the lens of 1979 fail to understand the circumstances that lead to political rupture
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
'Italy – the birthplace of fascism – especially shows how once-marginal ideas can gain traction.' @theguardian.com #remigration www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Look to Italy to see how the dangerous idea of ‘remigration’ is taking root in Europe | David Broder
To even be talking about this drastic deportation policy is a sign the far right is winning, says author David Broder
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
'They added that authorities in Turkey, which already hosts nearly 3 million Syrian refugees, believe that further arrivals from Iran could weigh heavily on the country’s struggling economy.' @bloomberg.com #Turkey www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
NATO Said to Step Up Iran Surveillance as Tensions With US Mount
The focus of NATO’s air surveillance in Turkey has shifted from Russia to Iran as the risk of a US-led military campaign against Tehran mounts, people familiar with the matter said.
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
'Regarding constitutional sources, Doueik noted that the drafting committee relied on the existing Basic Laws in addition to reviewing previous drafts and other constitutions, such as the 2014 Tunisian constitution and those of South Africa, Brazil, and Colombia.' @thenewarab.bsky.social #Palestine
newarab.com
The PA’s new constitution: A roadmap to Palestinian statehood?
With Israel treating annexation of the West Bank as a fait accompli, what role will a new constitution play in bolstering Palestine’s bid for statehood?
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
'This dual structure has become an operational reality: investors sign contracts with Tripoli for legal validity while relying on dubious security arrangements with eastern authorities to ensure uninterrupted operations.' #Libya oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
oilprice.com
Libya’s Oil Licensing Round Fails to Deliver Promised Comeback | OilPrice.com
Libya’s 2025 licensing round offered 22 onshore and offshore blocks, attracted 44 applicants, with 37 companies pre-qualified – yet only 5 blocks were ultimately awarded in February 2026.
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
'Le Niger compte-t-il se poser en médiateur pour résoudre le conflit entre l’Algérie et le Mali ou au contraire prendre ses distances avec son allié au sein de l’AES ? La question demeure pour l’heure en suspens.' @france24.com #Algérie #France #Niger
france24.com
Visites de Nunez et de Tiani en Algérie : un incongru ballet diplomatique à Alger
Alors que le ministre français de l'Intérieur Laurent Nunez arrivait lundi à Alger pour une visite de deux jours à l’invitation de son homologue algérien, le président Abdelmadjid Tebboune recevait qu...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
'She said that Libya’s judiciary, historically viewed as one of the country’s few unified institutions, is now fragmenting, with parallel courts in Tripoli and Benghazi issuing contradictory rulings.' @thenationalnews.com #Libya www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026...
thenationalnews.com
Libya is deteriorating on many fronts, says UN | The National
UN official urges Libyan leaders to refrain from 'escalatory measures'
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
'[..] while #Spain is an outlier on a continent closing its doors, its warm welcome doesn’t extend to many Africans. It finances, equips and trains #Morocco and other countries to stop migrants before they reach Europe via the Canary Islands, and has heavily fortified crossings in Ceuta and Melilla'
messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com
The World: Spain’s big bet on immigrants
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Il mare d'inverno Il clamore mediatico e la relativa ondata di indignazione sui tragici fatti di Crans-Montana continua ancora oggi, a più di un mese e mezzo di distanza dall'avvenimento. /1
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
'Au-delà de ces chiffres, Rome cherche à donner une profondeur stratégique à son engagement sur le continent africain.' @tv5monde.bsky.social #Italie #Afrique information.tv5monde.com/afrique/plan...
information.tv5monde.com
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
'Le gaz, qui doit également alimenter le Sahel, pourra être exporté à partir de l’Algérie vers l’Union européenne via le gazoduc Transmed qui relie l’Afrique du nord à l’Italie, ou sous forme de gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) transporté dans des méthaniers.' www.jeuneafrique.com/1766381/econ...
jeuneafrique.com
Algérie-Niger : après le dégel des relations, le gazoduc transsaharien relancé
Le chef du régime militaire du Niger, le général Abdourahamane Tiani, et le président algérien, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, ont affiché lundi 16 février un dégel de leurs relations bilatérales crispées depu...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
'Le fait que Carthage, le palais présidentiel, soit contrainte de museler ses propres soutiens est la conséquence d’un triple échec : idéologique, moral et social.' @lepoint.fr #Tunisie www.lepoint.fr/monde/tunisi...
lepoint.fr
En Tunisie, la dictature dévore ses enfants
LETTRE DU MAGHREB. Après avoir mis l’opposition en prison, le régime du président Saïed s’attaque à ses propres fidèles. Le député Saidani a été placé sous mandat de dépôts pour des propos critiques.
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
'This structure highlights how, in the absence of sufficient internal financial resources, #Italy has resorted to regional and international partnerships.' /1
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
'Adoption by the military is seen as a key boost for AI companies that are competing for legitimacy and seeking to live up to their enormous valuations from investors.' @wsj.com www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
wsj.com
Exclusive | Pentagon Used Anthropic’s Claude in Maduro Venezuela Raid
The use of the model through a contract with Palantir highlights the growing role of AI in the Pentagon.
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
'To be fair, no group, inside or outside Iran, can bring about a transition by itself. To succeed, this diverse opposition ecosystem will need to form a coalition—a process that would begin with the adoption of a narrow common platform.' @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-d...
foreignaffairs.com
Iran’s Divided Opposition
Only a unified movement can threaten the regime.
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
'« Les efforts italiens en Afrique sont d’abord une question d’image, une perception que l’on doit entretenir jusqu’à ce qu’elle devienne réalité », analyse ainsi une habituée des cercles diplomatiques romains.' @lemonde.fr #Afrique #PianoMattei www.lemonde.fr/afrique/arti...
lemonde.fr
Georgia Meloni se rend en Ethiopie et confirme les ambitions italiennes en Afrique
Deux ans après le premier sommet Italie-Afrique à Rome, la présidente du conseil italien participe à une nouvelle rencontre en Ethiopie. Objectif : renforcer la présence italienne sur le continent via...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
'A geopolitical anomaly'. That is how @lemonde.fr describes the military presence of #Italy in #Niger, where it is sitting side by side with #Russia 's Africa Corps at the Niamey International Airport, targeted by a terrorist attack just a few weeks ago. A must-read. www.lemonde.fr/afrique/arti...
lemonde.fr
Au Niger, l’étonnante cohabitation des militaires italiens et des Russes d’Africa Corps
Quelque 300 soldats italiens restent stationnés à Niamey, à côté des militaires nigériens et des Russes d’Africa Corps, alors que Français et Américains ont dû quitter le pays. Une présence révélatric...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
'Last month, for the first time in Israel’s history, the Israeli defense establishment reported more Jewish acts of terror against Palestinians in the West Bank than Palestinian acts of terror against Jews there and inside Israel proper.' @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/israe...
foreignaffairs.com
Israel Is Quietly Annexing the West Bank
The blunder that will imperil any Mideast peace.
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
'Menaçant de « multiplier les interventions le long de la frontière », le groupe dirigé par Mohamad Wardagou l'accuse de corruption et dénonce le manque chronique de carburant dans le sud libyen, dont il s'inquiète de la marginalisation.' @rfi.fr #Libye www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...
rfi.fr
Libye: un groupe armé du sud du pays revendique une deuxième attaque contre les forces du maréchal Haftar
« Les révolutionnaires du sud libyen » affirment avoir mené une attaque contre un convoi de l'Armée nationale libyenne (ANL) qui transportait du carburant en direction du Soudan, lundi 9 février. Quel...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
#SaudiArabia appoints a new investment minister, replacing Khalid Al-Falih. 'The reshuffle comes as megaproject activity has slowed and foreign direct investment inflows remain far below the kingdom’s Vision 2030 targets.' /1 @al-monitor.bsky.social #SaudiArabia www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Saudi Arabia names new investment minister as Vision 2030 funding lags
The leadership change comes as slowing megaprojects and weak foreign inflows expose gaps in the kingdom’s ambitious economic overhaul.
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
'Production has rebounded to about 1.4 million barrels a day, its highest level in more than a decade. Tripoli is targeting a crude output of 1.6 million bpd by the end of 2026.' #Libya @thenationalnews.com www.thenationalnews.com/business/ene...
thenationalnews.com
Libya awards first oil blocks in two decades to Chevron, Eni and QatarEnergy | The National
Tripoli targets crude output of 1.6 million bpd by the end of 2026 and gas exports to Europe by 2030
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
' #Algeria is the first country aside from #Russia to operate the Su-57. It is a significant arms sale for Russia, which has scrambled to maintain an important revenue stream despite a downturn in business caused by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.' /1 www.defensenews.com/global/europ...
defensenews.com
Russian stealth jets have arrived in North Africa, as filmed by Algerian potato farmer
The U.S. government considers the deal problematic, threatening sanctions.
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Nuova intervista sulla #Libia per Nessun Luogo è Lontano su Radio24. podcasts.apple.com/it/podcast/n...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
'Le camp Haftar subit actuellement une pression sans précédent à propos de ses livraisons d'armes aux FSR : si son allié émirien veut le pousser à continuer ces livraisons, ses autres alliés historiques cherchent à lui faire cesser.' @rfi.fr #Libye www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...
rfi.fr
Libye: le camp Haftar envoie des troupes à la frontière avec le Soudan, alors que l’Égypte demande la fin du soutien aux FSR
Le général libyen Saddam Haftar, vice-président du commandement général de l'Armée nationale libyenne (ANL) qui contrôle l'est et le sud libyen, a ordonné à ses forces de se déplacer vers le triangle…
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
'Russia has stationed forces at Qamishli airport in the northeast since 2019, a relatively small deployment compared to its air base and a naval facility on Syria's Mediterranean coast, both of which it is expected to maintain.' #Russia #Syria @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/russia...
reuters.com
Russia withdrawing troops from airport in northeast Syria, sources say
Russia is withdrawing forces from an airport in northeastern Syria, moving to end its military presence in a corner of the country where the Damascus government is trying to seize control from Kurdish...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
'Cet accord de défense s’inscrit dans un conflit d’influences plus large au Moyen-Orient, entre le Qatar, l’Arabie saoudite et les Émirats arabes unis, qui se reflète déjà dans les guerres au Soudan et au Yémen.' @rfi.fr www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...
rfi.fr
La Somalie signe un accord de défense avec le Qatar
La Somalie a signé, lundi 19 janvier 2026, un accord de défense avec le Qatar, une semaine après avoir suspendu toute coopération avec les Émirats Arabes Unis. L'accord prévoit de renforcer les liens…
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
'For many Kurdish leaders, the announcement confirmed long-held fears that the United States had traded its partnership with them for one with the central government.' @nytimes.com #Syria www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/w...
nytimes.com
U.S. Starts Moving ISIS Detainees From Syria to Iraq
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
'Dans un pays où 40 % de la population a moins de 25 ans et alors que son père n’a pas été vu en public dans son pays depuis le 31 octobre, la CAN apparaît comme le sacre informel du futur Hassan III.' @courrierinter.bsky.social #Maroc www.courrierinternational.com/article/mona...
courrierinternational.com
Au Maroc, la CAN acte une “transition” entre Mohammed VI et le futur Hassan III
Alors que la Coupe d’Afrique des nations de football constitue un succès indéniable pour la diplomatie du roi Mohammed VI, c’est pourtant son fils, le futur Has...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
'By maintaining such a large military presence in the Caribbean, even after the Maduro operation, Trump had fewer options to respond to the violence in Iran and also had to consider the fact that Tehran was likely to make good on its threat to retaliate against any U.S. actions.' @foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com
Is the Iran Crisis Over?
Trump said the killing has stopped, but a lot is up in the air.
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
“I would never have supported this guy in the past,” said a woman in western Tehran [...] But we have no other option. There is no way back, only forward. If we don’t rally around him and unite, we will be buried here.” @washingtonpost.com #Iran www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
washingtonpost.com
Iran’s opposition is battling to oust regime but hobbled by divisions
Amid a lethal crackdown against anti-government protests, Iran’s opposition and its most prominent leader, Reza Pahlavi, face differences within their own ranks.
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Il cambio al vertice in #Venezuela ha confermato il modus operandi di #Trump: operazioni mirate, ad alto impatto politico ma low-cost. Il cambiamento deve venire da dentro, magari con una spinta sufficiente a far crollare il castello di carte. L' #Iran però non offre questo genere di scorciatoie.🧵/1
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Per chi ha vissuto negli anni '80, la figura di Oliviero Toscani rimane sicuramente emblematica e fortemente provocatoria, parte integrante della cultura dell'epoca. Ora un documentario in onda su Sky Arte ne ripercorre la carriera ad un anno dalla sua scomparsa. arte.sky.it/news/2026/ol...
arte.sky.it
Un anno senza Oliviero Toscani | Sky Arte
Segui su Sky Arte Un anno senza Oliviero Toscani
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Stay informed on the MENA region with Strategic South, the bi-monthly newsletter from the NATO Defense College Foundation. 📊 Latest publications 📈 Regional developments 🎨 Expert infographics Subscribe today: www.natofoundation.org/strategic-so...
natofoundation.org
Strategic South - December 2025
Linkedin Instagram X-twitter Youtube Facebook “The spirit of our endeavour is, To strive, to seek, to find and not to yield”Alessandro Minuto-Rizzo, - Scopri i progetti, le ricerche e le iniziative de...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
'Still, the apparent endgame in Caracas, which has seen Trump working with the remnants of Maduro’s regime and sidelining Venezuela’s prodemocratic opposition, may be a cautionary tale for Iran’s protesters.' @ishaantharoor.bsky.social @washingtonpost.com #Iran #Trump #Venezuela
washingtonpost.com
Column | Could Iran go the way of Venezuela?
The apparent endgame in Caracas, which has seen Trump sideline Venezuela’s pro-democratic opposition, may be a cautionary tale for Iran’s protesters.
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Are the protests in #Iran the final straw that breaks the camel's back? 👀 Both #Israel and the #US would have much to gain from a regime change, while the restoration of the Pahlavi dynasty remains on the cards. More in my latest #Gulf Strategic Trend.
natofoundation.org
Iran under pressure
After the bombardments during the Twelve-Day War in June 2025, carried out by Israel and the USA against Iran, the Islamic Republic has been rocked by - Scopri i progetti, le ricerche e le iniziative ...
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
'In a post-Western world, an essentially Western social science discipline was rapidly losing depth.' An illuminating piece on the crisis of conflict studies, a discipline that is running the risk of revealing itself as an 'imperial science' that has only served the interests of the West.
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Umberto Profazio @profazio.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Una guerra ibrida alle porte dell'Europa? ⚠️ L'aumento dei flussi migratori verso la #Grecia riaccende il dibattito sull'uso dei migranti come arma di pressione. La competizione tra milizie all'interno della #Libia suggerisce però una certa cautela. Approfondisci nel mio nuovo Strategic Trend.
natofoundation.org
The weaponisation of migrants
Exacerbated by ongoing conflicts in Africa and persistent instability in the Middle East, migration is likely to remain a dominant theme for EU - Scopri i progetti, le ricerche e le iniziative della N...
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