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Martin Posch

@poschm.bsky.social
575 followers 257 following 6 posts

Medical statistics / Innovative clinical trial designs

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Reposted by Martin Posch
Tobias Fellinger @stats-tobby.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Did you know the FDA has gone full Bayesian? Better take in this blogpost, including intro to the context of guidance documents The guidance is quite good, but as stated in the blogpost, it leaves out where the FDA finds Bayesian methods acceptable. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/15/f...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
FDA guidance on Bayesian clinical trials | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Martin Posch @poschm.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
New open-access paper: we discuss graph-based adaptive multiarm, multiple-endpoint two-stage designs that allow early stopping, sample size re-estimation & dropping treatments/endpoints while preserving strong FWER control. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/... #multipletesting #adaptivedesign
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Graph Based, Adaptive, Multiarm, Multiple Endpoint, Two‐Stage Designs
The graph-based approach to multiple testing is an intuitive method that enables a study team to represent clearly, through a directed graph, its priorities for hierarchical testing of multiple hypot...
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Reposted by Martin Posch
Stephen Senn @stephensenn.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
#ISCB46 very nice talk by Michael Kammer on COVID-19 prognostic models, which involved a ‘deep dive’ into the pond life of modelling. Bottom line: “If looking for reliable models, don’t hold your breath.”
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Stephen Senn @stephensenn.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
Pleased to report on two papers on #ANVOVA with @poschm.bsky.social and Franz König The first lnkd.in/eKmjiQdk looks at median stratification for a single covariate. The second lnkd.in/e3DH96G8 considers adjustment for many covariates. Variance inflation factors are key.
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Martin Posch @poschm.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
We invite applications for a 1-year postdoctoral/postgraduate researcher position at the Institute of Medical Statistics, MedUni Vienna working in a collaborative project with regulatory authorities on causal inference for treatment effect estimation in RCTs cloudius.meduniwien.ac.at/index.php/s/...
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SHARE CTD @sharectd.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Welcome to the official Bluesky account of SHARE-CTD! We're a European research network dedicated to enhancing clinical trial data sharing to advance medical research and the betterment of society. Learn more: share-ctd.eu #SHARECTD #OpenScience #DataSharing
share-ctd.eu
NEWS
New article "The validation of prediction models deserves more recognition" published in BMC Medicine 2025.03.24 Begüm Irmak Ön and Ulrich M…
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ENAR @enar-ibs.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Congratulations to the #ENAR2025 Student Paper Award Winners! Checkout these eight winners (more to come). Catch their presentations at the 2025 ENAR Spring Conference. #ENAR #StudentAwards #NewOrleans
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Stephen Senn @stephensenn.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
A revised version of the paper with @poschm.bsky.social and Franz Koenig on stratification and covariate adjustment in clinical trials is now up arxiv.org/pdf/2408.06760 We thank Robin Ristl and @timpmorris.bsky.social for helpful comments.
arxiv.org
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Marion Campbell @marionkcampbell.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
This past month has seen the publication of a couple of new helpful papers providing further insights into the thorny issue of #MultipleTesting in trials 1/7 #MethodologyMonday #112
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Tobias Fellinger @stats-tobby.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
doi.org/10.1002/sim.... Our paper "A Comparison of Statistical Methods for Time-To-Event Analyses in Randomized Controlled Trials Under Non-Proportional Hazards" got published today 🎉 We describe commonly used methods, and compare their performance in a simulation study across different scenarios.
doi.org
A Comparison of Statistical Methods for Time‐To‐Event Analyses in Randomized Controlled Trials Under Non‐Proportional Hazards
While well-established methods for time-to-event data are available when the proportional hazards assumption holds, there is no consensus on the best inferential approach under non-proportional hazar...
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Florian Naudet @floriannaudet.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Some news of SHARE-CTD. Good news.
sharectd.eu
NEWS
First schooling at Wissenschaftszentrum Schloss Reisensburg 2025.02.01 The 1st schooling of the SHARE-CTD project took place in person with internatio…
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Steve Tonkin @astunit.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
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Martin Posch @poschm.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
4 perspectives on the use of LLM in the practice of science www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... . Should LLM be seen as collaborators?
pnas.org
How should the advancement of large language models affect the practice of science? | PNAS
Large language models (LLMs) are being increasingly incorporated into scientific workflows. However, we have yet to fully grasp the implications of...
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Martin Posch @poschm.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
Together with Cyrus Mehta and Ajoy Mukhopadhyay, we present a unified framework for graph-based adaptive designs in multi-arm, multi-endpoint, two-stage studies. This approach integrates multiple strategies to enable flexible confirmatory trial designs. Preprint: arxiv.org/abs/2501.03197
arxiv.org
Graph Based, Adaptive, Multi Arm, Multiple Endpoint, Two Stage Design
The graph based approach to multiple testing is an intuitive method that enables a study team to represent clearly, through a directed graph, its priorities for hierarchical testing of multiple hypoth...
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Reposted by Martin Posch
Frank Bretz @frankbretz.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
A beautifully written interview by Alex Sverdlov featuring my colleague Amy Racine-Poon, published in the International Statistical Review. doi.org/10.1111/insr...
doi.org
A Conversation With Amy Racine‐Poon
Professor Dr. Amy Racine-Poon is best known for her interdisciplinary contributions as an applied Bayesian statistician in the pharmaceutical industry and healthcare. She was born in Hong Kong and ob...
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Reposted by Martin Posch
Danielle Bitterman MD @daniellebitterman.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
TRIPOD-LLM is out! Check out our consensus guidelines for reporting #LLM research in biomedicine. TRIPOD-LLM is intended to be a living guideline to keep up with the rapid advances in LLMs. Kudos to lead author Dr. Jack Gallifant
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Journal of Clinical Epidemiology @jclinepi.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
Priors and decision thresholds in phase 2 and phase 3 randomized controlled trials evaluating drug efficacy using Bayesian methods: a systematic review - @jclinepi.bsky.social www.jclinepi.com/article/S089...
jclinepi.com
Priors and decision thresholds in phase 2 and phase 3 randomized controlled trials evaluating drug efficacy using Bayesian methods: a systematic review
To describe the priors and decision thresholds in phase 2 and 3 RCTs evaluating drug efficacy using Bayesian methods.
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Reposted by Martin Posch
David Colquhoun @davidcolquhoun.bsky.social · 27/12/2024
"It's easy to get a false positive risk of 40% withOUT any cheating at all"
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Michelle Greene @mgreenephd.bsky.social · 27/12/2024
Amazing collective problem solving in ants:
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Martin Posch @poschm.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
Great essay by David Spiegelhalter!
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Reposted by Martin Posch
Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 06/11/2024
Developing a prediction model? Ever wondered how to target sample size to improve model fairness and precision of risk estimates? Check out our new pre-print & software package pmstabilityss arxiv.org/abs/2407.09293
arxiv.org
Sample size for developing a prediction model with a binary outcome: targeting precise individual risk estimates to improve clinical decisions and fairness
When developing a clinical prediction model, the sample size of the development dataset is a key consideration. Small sample sizes lead to greater concerns of overfitting, instability, poor performanc...
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Reposted by Martin Posch
Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Great to see this R package: stephenrho.github.io/pminternal/ Implements the (in)stability plots and checks recommended by myself & @gscollins.bsky.social after developing a prediction model Our paper is here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
stephenrho.github.io
Internal Validation of Clinical Prediction Models
Conduct internal validation of a clinical prediction model for a binary outcome. Produce bias corrected performance metrics (c-statistic, calibration slope) via bootstrap (simple bootstrap, boots...
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Journal of Clinical Epidemiology @jclinepi.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
The Journal of Clinical Epidemiology is, as of today, present at Bluesky 🎉 And, only here, you can have a sneak preview of our new journal and website design. But of course, our contents remains key, with many thanks to our authors, reviewers, editorial board and editorial team
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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Last year I published research proving (yes, proving 😉 ) that new episodes of Doctor Who on Christmas Day reduce death rates in UK Since then, the BBC have shown brand new episodes on Christmas Day! Including this year! Who said my research has no impact? ❤️❤️ #DoctorWho www.bmj.com/content/383/...
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Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Christmas 2024 Gift no. 4 NEW VIDEO: "IPD Meta-Analysis: Two-stage or Not Two-Stage? That is the question..." youtu.be/WFSAfouhB-8 - guidance for when to choose a one-stage rather than a two-stage approach, & vice versa. - ideas showcased using real examples (no equations) I hope useful!
youtu.be
IPD Meta-Analysis: Two-stage or Not Two-Stage? That is the question ...
YouTube video by Richard_D_Riley
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Ben Goldacre @bengoldacre.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
If you've been wondering where I went: my team in Oxford (60 of us!) build beautiful tools for NHS data. We help researchers work on the whole nation's GP records while protecting - provably - everyone's privacy. It's big potatoes! www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRjR...
youtube.com
OpenSAFELY in a nutshell
YouTube video by Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science
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Tim Morris @timpmorris.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Hot off the preprint server: ‘Efficiency of nonparametric superiority tests based on restricted mean survival time versus the log-rank test under proportional hazards’ Short thread 👇 1/ arxiv.org/abs/2412.06442
arxiv.org
Efficiency of nonparametric superiority tests based on restricted mean survival time versus the log-rank test under proportional hazards
Background: For RCTs with time-to-event endpoints, proportional hazard (PH) models are typically used to estimate treatment effects and logrank tests are commonly used for hypothesis testing. There is...
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Reposted by Martin Posch
Dax Kellie @daxkellie.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
If you missed my talk but still want to learn how to make your R code more reproducible, my slides are here 🙂: daxkellie.quarto.pub/will-your-co... All the links to packages and resources I mentioned are there, so hopefully this can be a nice reference, too! #ESAus2024 #rstats #quartopub 🧪🌏
Title slide: Will your code run again? Tips for making code reproducible in R
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Martin Posch @poschm.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
It’s time to prepare for the next revolution in computing www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
‘A truly remarkable breakthrough’: Google’s new quantum chip achieves accuracy milestone
Error-correction feat shows quantum computers will get more accurate as they grow larger.
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Reposted by Martin Posch
Stephen Senn @stephensenn.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
'...suppose that Sir R.A. Fisher ... had not taken over from ordinary English such evocative words as "sufficient," "efficient," & "consistent" & made them into precisely defined terms of statistical theory...Would his work have had the same smashing influence that it did?' Kruskal, 1978
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Stephen Senn @stephensenn.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
"In randomized experiments, the effects of this variable are distributed among the groups by the randomization in a way that is taken into account in the standard tests of significance. ." Cochran 1957. NB "distributed". He does not say "balanced." See also errorstatistics.com/2020/04/20/s...
errorstatistics.com
S. Senn: Randomisation is not about balance, nor about homogeneity but about randomness (Guest Post)
Stephen Senn Consultant Statistician Edinburgh The intellectual illness of clinical drug evaluation that I have discussed here can be cured, and it will be cured when we restore intellectual primac…
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Christoph Bock Lab @ CeMM & MedUni Vienna @bocklab.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
We are recruiting a Tenure-track Assistant Professor "Machine Learning in the Life Sciences" at the Medical University of Vienna. We will nominate the top candidate for a € 1.8 million starting grant by a Viennese foundation. Deadline: Dec 31st. Details: medical-epigenomics.org/files/Tenure...
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James E. Pustejovsky @jepusto.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Okay here's your #stats trivia question for the day, on propensity scores and regression adjustment. Say that you're using entropy-balancing propensity score weights to estimate an average treatment effect for the treated (ATT). Zhao and Percival show that this estimator is doubly robust... 1/
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Andrew Partington @arpartington.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
While they're all the rage, Adrian Barnett always has me thinking twice about the usefulness of prediction models ... "Evidence of questionable research practices in clinical prediction models" bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com
Evidence of questionable research practices in clinical prediction models - BMC Medicine
Background Clinical prediction models are widely used in health and medical research. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a frequently used estimate to describe the dis...
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Ben Goldacre @bengoldacre.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
"Why doesn't the NHS use its GP data?". Because of privacy... Because it's hard... But we solved it. We developed new privacy protections... We built docs.OpenSAFELY.org! 181 projects! 31 organisations! Now, they come together, for the first time, in 3D! www.bennett.ox.ac.uk/blog/2024/10...
bennett.ox.ac.uk
OpenSAFELY Symposium 2024: there's still time to sign up | Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science
It’s not too late to register for our 2nd Annual OpenSAFELY Symposium, which is happening in London on 25/26 November.
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Ruth Keogh @ruthkeogh.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
New paper from Shaun Seaman and me on how to simulate data from marginal structural models (MSMs) for survival outcomes, including Cox MSMs. This can be useful in simulation studies evaluating causal inference methods that use MSMs. R code provided. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Simulating Data From Marginal Structural Models for a Survival Time Outcome
Marginal structural models (MSMs) are often used to estimate causal effects of treatments on survival time outcomes from observational data when time-dependent confounding may be present. They can be...
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Stephen Senn @stephensenn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Senior Moment. I was just thinking "its abut time I posted something about regression dilution" when I discovered I did so over 2.5 years ago. Here is is www.linkedin.com/pulse/traged...
linkedin.com
A Tragedy of Errors
Observing the Truth? If you wish to estimate the change in an outcome Y that accompanies a change in a predictor X and it is the relationship between the expected value of Y and the true value of X th...
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Munya Dimairo @mdimairo.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Our part 2 series paper in peer review... Confidence intervals for adaptive trial designs II: Case study and practical guidance arxiv.org/abs/2411.08771
arxiv.org
Confidence intervals for adaptive trial designs II: Case study and practical guidance
In adaptive clinical trials, the conventional confidence interval (CI) for a treatment effect is prone to undesirable properties such as undercoverage and potential inconsistency with the final hypoth...
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Munya Dimairo @mdimairo.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Our part 1 series paper in peer review ... Confidence intervals for adaptive trial designs I: A methodological review arxiv.org/abs/2411.08495
arxiv.org
Confidence intervals for adaptive trial designs I: A methodological review
Regulatory guidance notes the need for caution in the interpretation of confidence intervals (CIs) constructed during and after an adaptive clinical trial. Conventional CIs of the treatment effects ar...
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