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Antonino Polizzi

@polizzan.bsky.social
1K followers 315 following 35 posts

Deputy Head Laboratory of Population Health @mpidr.bsky.social. PhD @sociologyoxford.bsky.social & @oxforddemsci.bsky.social. Researching life expectancy, causes of death, + formal demography of fertility & mortality. Photo by Potters Instinct Photography.

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Reposted by Antonino Polizzi
Rebecca Sear @rebeccasear.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Period measures of fertility, like TFR, are less stable than cohort measures and are currently overstating fertility decline. New paper out on The Long-Term Trends in Cohort Fertility: Global, Regional and National Estimates and Projections for Cohorts Born in 1935–2055 doi.org/10.1111/padr...
Graph from paper comparing period and cohort measures of fertility since 1950 projected to 2100. Lines are similar until around 1990 when period drops below cohort measure and stays below cohort measure
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Reposted by Antonino Polizzi
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) @mpidr.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
🛫🛄MPIDR on Tour: We are happy to join the Annual Conference of the British Society for Population Studies at the University of Kent from today until Thursday. Our colleagues are looking forward to presenting and discussing their research. Jose Andrade Ana Cris GUV Elena Pojman #BSPS2026
A historic building at the University of Kent in Canterbury featuring an announcement for the annual meeting of the British Society for Population Studies in September 2026.Program overview for the MPIDR@BSPS2026 conference, featuring presentations on queer studies, changes in fertility, and population projections on September 9 and 10, 2026.
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Reposted by Antonino Polizzi
Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Why is life expectancy in England & Wales falling behind? New research by @polizzan.bsky.social @andreatilstra.bsky.social @luyinz.bsky.social and @drjenndowd.bsky.social traces this to weaker progress across several ages and causes of death. Read more: www.demography.ox.ac.uk/news/why-lif...
demography.ox.ac.uk
Why is life expectancy in England & Wales falling behind?
Between 2011 and 2019, England & Wales saw slower life expectancy gains than other European countries, slippingdown in international rankings. New LCDS research explores what was going on underneath t...
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Reposted by Antonino Polizzi
Demography - the flagship journal of PAA @readdemography.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
“MSE Workflow for Mortality Analysis”: @thegargiulian.bsky.social presents a workflow for “estimating conflict mortality using multiple heterogeneous & statistically biased lists of victims” & applies it to the 1985-2018 conflict in Colombia. @psglshtm.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...
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Reposted by Antonino Polizzi
Nuffield College Library @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Why is life expectancy in England & Wales falling behind? A cause-of-death decomposition approach doi.org/10.1080/0032...
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Reposted by Antonino Polizzi
Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
A pleasure to work with the brilliant @polizzan.bsky.social @andreatilstra.bsky.social & @luyinz.bsky.social on this paper! #demography #mortality #episky
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Great point! Some countries that were ahead of England & Wales at baseline saw greater gains in life expectancy. So the modest gains in E&W are not due to a glass‑ceiling effect. The paper discusses socioeconomic differences + economic factors, but we couldn’t give them full justice in our analysis.
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
We'd like to thank @oxforddemsci.bsky.social + @sociologyoxford.bsky.social + @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social + @imprs-phds.bsky.social for their support! Read the full paper in Population Studies @bspsuk.bsky.social doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2026.2682462 7/N
doi.org
Why is life expectancy in England & Wales falling behind? A cause-of-death decomposition approach
Life expectancy in England & Wales has diverged from that of its high-income peers since 2011, raising concerns that the country may become an international laggard like the United States (US). Usi...
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
tl;dr: Between 2011 and 2019, life expectancy in England & Wales fell behind European peers. Slower improvements at younger and middle ages for cardiometabolic and external causes of death contributed the most to diverging life expectancy trends. 6/N
Life expectancy at birth for males and females in England & Wales and 20 high-income countries in 2011 (tail of arrow) and 2019 (head of arrow).
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
We compared England & Wales to 20 countries. The decomposition patterns were strikingly similar and point to the same conclusion: mortality trends in E&W were a clear outlier in Europe. Next step? More work on the micro-/macro-level drivers behind E&W’s lagging life expectancy internationally. 5/N
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Key findings by age: Mortality in ages 15–44 stagnated in E&W but improved elsewhere – Mortality in ages 45–64 and 65+ improved less in E&W. All trends contributed to E&W’s smaller life expectancy improvement in 2011–19 (negative bars). 4/N
Net contributions (in months) from mortality trends between 2011 and 2019 to life expectancy gaps between England & Wales and each high-income country in 2019, by age group.
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Key findings for causes of death: Cardiometabolic & cancer mortality improved less in England & Wales – Dementia mortality worsened more – External mortality worsened in E&W but improved elsewhere. All trends contributed to E&W’s smaller life expectancy improvement in 2011–19 (negative bars). 3/N
Net contributions (in months) from mortality trends between 2011 and 2019 to life expectancy gaps between England & Wales and each high-income country in 2019, by cause of death.
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
In 2011, England & Wales had better life expectancy than many European countries. By 2019, those advantages shrank or flipped (red arrows going from above towards / below zero). Where E&W already ranked worse, gaps widened (red arrows starting below zero). Bottom line: E&W ranked worse in 2019. 2/N
Changes in life expectancy gaps (in months) between England & Wales and 20 high-income countries during 2011–19 for: (a) females; and (b) males.
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Just out! 📢 "Why is life expectancy in England & Wales falling behind?" We used a decomposition approach to understand why life expectancy improvements in E&W lagged behind other European countries between 2011 and 2019. 📉 The findings might surprise you. 🔍📄 doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2026.2682462 1/N
Life expectancy at birth for males and females in England & Wales and 20 high-income countries in 2011 (tail of arrow) and 2019 (head of arrow).
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Definitely worth a read! 👇 It was great to be part of this amazing team during my PhD. 🤓
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Update: I finally had my official graduation ceremony and didn't want this beautiful photo with my wonderful friends @thegargiulian.bsky.social and @andreatilstra.bsky.social go unnoticed. 👩‍👩‍👦 Thanks to our photographer @sanderwagner.bsky.social! 📸
From left to right: Maria Gargiulo, Antonino Polizzi, and Andrea Tilstra pose for a photograph in the quad of Nuffield College. Antonino is wearing a red and purple graduation gown and holding a bouquet of pink and yellow flowers. They are all smiling.
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Join us for our meeting of the Formal Demography Working Group tomorrow! 👇
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Reposted by Antonino Polizzi
Population Studies Group, LSHTM @psglshtm.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
📢 Check out these two new publications involving PSG members Maria Gargiulo (@thegargiulian.bsky.social) and José Manuel Aburto!
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Check out this great thread summarizing our recent paper "Temporary Shock or Lasting Scar?" 👇
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Reposted by Antonino Polizzi
Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Five years after the pandemic began, have countries returned to their pre-COVID life expectancy trajectories? New research shows 31 of 34 high-income countries still have life expectancy deficits in 2024, suggesting lasting effects on population health. www.demography.ox.ac.uk/news/new-lcd...
demography.ox.ac.uk
New LCDS Preprint Asks: Has COVID-19 Left a Lasting Scar on Life Expectancy?
Five years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, an important question remains: was COVID-19 a short-lived mortality shock, or has it more permanently altered life expectancy trajectories? A new p...
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
📈 New preprint on life expectancy trajectories in high-income countries since 2020. 📉 Joint work with a great team from @mpidr.bsky.social @oxforddemsci.bsky.social @psglshtm.bsky.social @camunicampop.bsky.social Link below. 👇
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
I am grateful for this recognition of my work. Congratulations to everyone whose work has been honored in memory of our late fellow student Julia Mead Knox.
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Happy birth, TPN! Really great line-up. 👏
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Reposted by Antonino Polizzi
Taylor & Francis Research @tandfresearch.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
Is it really #OpenAccessWeek if you haven't read some of our newly published #OpenAccess articles? 🎤 What matters to politicians: spr.ly/6000AsV7a 🍼 Fertility, birth, reproduction: spr.ly/6000AsnDY 🗾 Sexual inactivity in Japan: spr.ly/6008AsnHQ Happy reading & researching!
Collage of journal covers: "What matters more to politicians: the quantity or quality of public opinion signals?", "Fertility, birth, reproduction: Connecting formal demographic frameworks", and "Sexual Inactivity in Japan: a Scoping Review."
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Reposted by Antonino Polizzi
Human Mortality Database @hmdatabase.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Many thanks to everyone who contributed to the session for their valuable insights and engaging discussions!💡
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Thank you, Vanessa! 🙌
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
Very kind reading recommendation from @amandajean.bsky.social: My new paper "Fertility, birth, reproduction: Connecting formal demographic frameworks" with Annette Baudisch. 🤓 Just out in Population Studies. doi.org/10.1080/0032...
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
Maybe these functions are useful for forecasting fertility? Or for jointly modeling fertility and mortality? We do not fully know yet—but there’s plenty of exciting applied work ahead. Give our paper a read, try out the functions, and let us know what you think! 👇 6/n doi.org/10.1080/0032...
doi.org
Fertility, birth, reproduction: Connecting formal demographic frameworks
The conventional framework of fertility research conceptualizes childbirth from the mother’s perspective. From her perspective, birth is an uncertain and potentially recurring event. In contrast, t...
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
What are the density, survival, and hazard functions good for? They capture fertility age patterns without individual birth histories, complex models, or parity-specific data. All you need are age-specific fertility rates, e.g. from the Human Fertility Database or UN World Population Prospects. 5/n
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
What’s the difference between density, survival, and hazard functions based on birth counts vs fertility rates? We show that birth counts carry information on mortality in the maternal cohort; the fertility rates do not. That means if mortality is high, the two sets of functions will differ. 4/n
Density, survival, and hazard functions calculated from birth counts (B1D1) and fertility rates (Conventional), by maternal cohort (1880–1960), Sweden. The lowest panels show the ratios of the functions.
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
The 'Born once, die once' framework described above uses birth counts. Most demographers, however, work with fertility rates. Can we apply the 'life table logic' directly to these rates to get density, survival, and hazard functions of fertility? Yes! And we show exactly how in the paper. 3/n
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
Every person dies only once—and is also born only once. We apply life table logic to all births in a cohort of women, treating birth (not death) as the event, and using maternal age as the time axis. The result: density, survival, and hazard functions that capture the timing of reproduction. 2/n
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
✍️ Just out: Annette Baudisch & I delve into the formal demography of fertility, birth, & reproduction timing. 👶 We use methods from mortality research to summarize when in the parental life course children are born. 📆 1/n doi.org/10.1080/0032... @sdu.dk @oxforddemsci.bsky.social @mpidr.bsky.social
doi.org
Fertility, birth, reproduction: Connecting formal demographic frameworks
The conventional framework of fertility research conceptualizes childbirth from the mother’s perspective. From her perspective, birth is an uncertain and potentially recurring event. In contrast, t...
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
Feeling bittersweet as I read this wonderful thread and reflect on my time at @oxforddemsci.bsky.social, @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social, + @sociologyoxford.bsky.social coming to a close. Immensely grateful to my supervisors, assessors, colleagues, + friends for making this journey so meaningful. 👨‍🎓📜
Matriculation, Nuffield College, October 2021Thesis defense, Nuffield College, May 2025
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Thanks so much, @drjenndowd.bsky.social! Fortunately, one thing I learned during my time at @oxforddemsci.bsky.social is that you never really leave. Here's to a long collaboration! 🤓
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) @mpidr.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
👋👋👋WelcomeWeeks @mpidr.bsky.social! We are happy to welcome @polizzan.bsky.social! He is a new member in the Laboratory of Population Health at the Department of Social Demography. Welcome Antonino! www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_even...
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Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
👏 Kudos to @andreatilstra.bsky.social @polizzan.bsky.social @sanderwagner.bsky.social and Eva Akimova whose @naturecomms.bsky.social paper is among the top 25 most downloaded in social science and human behaviour for 2024 buff.ly/NmynGFV
nature.com
Top 25 Social Science & Human Behavior Articles of 2024
Browse the 25 most downloaded Nature Communications articles in social science and human behavior published in 2024
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
New @pnasnexus.org: How did non-COVID causes of death affect life expectancy (LE) in 2015-2022? 📑 tl;dr: By 2022, many of the 24 countries examined had NOT recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Rising cardiovascular and substance/external mortality prevented larger LE gains. 📉 doi.org/10.1093/pnas...
Graph showing how changes in COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 mortality affected life expectancy in 24 countries in the periods 2015-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22.
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Thanks so much for this, @evangelinewarren.com! Could you please add me to the list? Thank you. ☺️
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
New @socarxiv.bsky.social preprint! 🚨 In "An integrated formal demographic fertility framework", A. Baudisch & I present new functions to describe population-level fertility age patterns—useful for modeling & forecasting? 🌟 📖 doi.org/10.31235/osf... @oxforddemsci.bsky.social @imprs-phds.bsky.social
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 17/01/2024
You can also read Abrams et al.’s response here: doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2320028121 Let's keep the conversation going! 🗨️ #mortality #demography #lifeexpectancy
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 17/01/2024
Different counterfactuals provide different perspectives, neither is ‘right’ or ‘wrong’. What do you think is the best way to analyze US life expectancy stagnation? Read our letter: doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318276121 @leverhulme.bsky.social @popassocamerica.bsky.social @eapsphd.bsky.social (6)
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 17/01/2024
BOTTOM LINE: Working-age mortality is still an important driver of US life expectancy stagnation globally, but as Abrams et al. rightfully point out, we need to explore older-age slowdowns too. 📉 (5)
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 17/01/2024
We calculate an alternative counterfactual: What would US life expectancy be if 2010-19 age-specific mortality improved like in other high-income countries? 🌍 We find the opposite pattern: 25-64 mortality is more important than 65+ for explaining counterfactual differences. (4)
Figure 2 from Polizzi/Dowd (2024), showing counterfactual US life expectancy values for females and males in 2010-2019. USA panel replicates Figure 1 from Abrams et al. (2023).
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 17/01/2024
We question whether this within-US counterfactual tells the whole story for 2 reasons: - 25-64 US mortality was already stagnating in 2000-09, so less room to get worse. - 2010-19 slowdowns in 65+ mortality improvements were common globally, but rising 25-64 mortality wasn’t. (3)
Figure 1 from Polizzi/Dowd (2024), showing rates of mortality improvement in 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 for females and males in five high-income countries.
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 17/01/2024
Abrams et al. calculated counterfactual US life expectancy in 2010-19 if annual age-specific mortality changes followed 2000-09 trends. Surprise finding: Slowdowns in 65+ mortality improvements explain more post-2010 stagnation than 25-64 mortality. doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2308360120 (2)
Figure 1 from Abrams et al. (2023), showing counterfactual US life expectancy values for women and men in 2010-2019.
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Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social · 17/01/2024
What’s the best way to analyze #lifeexpectancy stagnation in the US? 🤔 In PNAS, @drjenndowd.bsky.social & I share our thoughts on a recent paper by Abrams, Myrskylä & Mehta. doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318276121 @oxforddemsci.bsky.social @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social @mpidr.bsky.social (1)
Figure 1 from Polizzi/Dowd (2024), showing rates of mortality improvement in 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 for females and males in five high-income countries.
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