We compare standard productivity estimates of UK output per worker derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with newly released estimates based on more reliable "Real Time Information" (RTI) administrative data. LFS-based productivity measures have been flat since 2024 Q3, a continuation of disappointing longer-term trends since the Global Financial Crisis. By contrast, RTI-based productivity estimates point to a meaningful productivity pickup. Between 2024 Q3 and 2026 Q2, our baseline administrative estimates indicate that productivity increased by 2.8 per cent, compared with just 0.3 per cent under the LFS-based measure. A divergence in labour input explains these differences. While some of the divergence could in principle reflect definitional and coverage differences between survey and administrative data, we believe that it is due to sampling challenges affecting the LFS, particularly during and since the pandemic. Given that administrative data currently provide the most reliable measure of employee growth, productivity estimates using such data provide a more accurate picture of recent developments.

Leaders who care about productivity should stop asking where people sit and start asking which arrangement helps each kind of work create the most value.

Stanford economist Nick Bloom says employers are adding face-to-face rounds as AI makes it harder to assess job candidates.

Antonin Bergeaud & Robin Rivaton explain why technological leadership depends as much on factories and power grids as on algorithms.

Antonin Bergeaud & Robin Rivaton explain why technological leadership depends as much on factories and power grids as on algorithms.

AI hasn’t resulted in widespread productivity gains. Business leaders say that’s changing

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

New report argues long-term reforms should focus on spending restraint, including end to pensions triple lock

The Innovation and Diffusion Podcast · Episode

We compare standard productivity estimates of UK output per worker derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with newly released estimates based on more reliable "Real Time Information" (RTI) adminis...

Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the US where the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agency data had been manipulated. This column shows that the events produced a sharp increase in economic policy uncertainty, with existing estimates linking uncertainty to macroeconomic outcomes implying that the resulting loss of confidence may have reduced US GDP by roughly $20 billion. While some economic activity postponed during periods of uncertainty may eventually occur later, there are reasons to believe that at least part of the effect could be lasting.

Philippe Aghion writes for Polytechnique Insights on how Europe must prepare its own AI strategy if it wishes to make up ground lost to the U.S. in terms of GDP per capita, productivity and disruptive innovations.

Frente a algunos de sus colegas que anticipan que la IA tendrá un impacto negativo sobre el empleo sin traducirse en un mayor crecimiento económico, Aghion sostuvo que, con las políticas públicas adec...

New career in IT or construction? It's not easy to get workers to reskill, says Raffaella Sadun, because jobs for many people are more than a paycheck.

Defence spending is rising whether voters like it or not. The UK has committed to 2.5% of national income and aims for nearer 3.5% over the next decade, £30bn a year for each percentage point. What do...

Philippe Aghion & Simon Johnson examine how the continent went from scientific powerhouse to cautious follower—and what to do about it.

One way to find out would be to test if faster growth and lower unemployment are possible without inflation

1pm Tues 16 Jun | Oliver Harman, Louise Hellem, Anna Valero, David Willetts | Free event at the LSE Festival: How to save the planet | Ticket required

An event from the POID Public Event series organised by POID

Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud and Luis Garicano rebut the Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman's recent claim that the gap with the US is a statistical mirage.

The Labour government set raising economic growth as its central target. The new figures published by the Office for National Statistics suggest that the economy is doing a lot better than expected.

The UK is experiencing increasing impacts from climate change, including more frequent and severe floods, heatwaves and storms. It needs to prepare more for these impacts. It also needs to honour its ...

Innovation underpins sustained long-run economic growth, yet measuring technological success is challenging. This column compiles two centuries of patent data and leverages filings in multiple patent offices to document the rise and decline of technological leadership. Thie findings suggest that technological progress can be fostered through long-run investments in R&D, education, and national security.

Fertility has fallen to very low levels in many advanced economies, and many pro-natalist policies appear to deliver modest gains at high cost. Using survey data covering 38 countries, this column shows that both planned and realised fertility are higher among adults who work from home at least one day a week. For couples, fertility is higher still when both partners work from home, indicating that hybrid work may be an overlooked margin for easing the trade-off between family and paid work.

A post determines where the impact of AI is most likely to be felt in the macroeconomy.

Podcast Episode · Transform Work · April 27 · 52m

Inventors split along party lines.

Innovation underpins sustained long-run economic growth, yet measuring technological success is challenging. This column compiles two centuries of patent data and leverages filings in multiple patent ...

China’s solar subsidies triggered innovation and learning-by-doing that dramatically lowered global solar costs while generating domestic economic gains large enough to outweigh the subsidy costs, sho...

Under standard conditions in the Colombian coffee sector, the benefits of producing better coffee are not passed on to farmers, weakening their incentives to invest in higher-quality production. Howev...

YouTube video by Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)

In retail markets, competition among firms happens “locally”. But what is the right way to define the local geographic market?