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Peter Jacobs

@pjacobs.bsky.social
3.9K followers 1.7K following 3.2K posts

climate science (paleo, modern, future); public understanding of science (consensus, conspiracy theories, pseudoscience) ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6951-7126 Mastodon: fediscience.org/@peterjacobs Bird Site: twitter.com/past_is_future

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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 18h
big contingent at the intersection of biology, technology, money, & Twitter who seem to believe the real lesson in The Boy Who Cried Wolf is that the boy didn't falsely cry wolf often enough & he should have aggressively gaslit people about non wolf events in the past being covered-up wolf attacks.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Not this one. It was a cool print though! silver.afi.com/movies/detai...
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
It still slaps bsky.app/profile/pjac...
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
It was phrased slightly better in the comment immediately below the one you replied to: bsky.app/profile/pjac...
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
That was poorly phrased on my part. To answer prompts involving math more complicated than what can be achieved by relying on tokenized arithmetic or when using tokenized arithmetic would be possible but computationally quite expensive they call on tools like Python for calculations.
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Seth Cotlar @sethcotlar.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The phrase “ethnic cleansing” appears in the first sentence of the Wikipedia definition.
Remigration is a far-right concept referring to the ethnic cleansing'"! via mass deportation of non-white minority populations, especially immigrants and sometimes including native-born citizens, to their place of racial ancestry. [21[3) Originating in Europe, the concept has since spread to the United States and Canada, where it has gained increasing prominence, and is especially popular within the Identitarian movement. 41[5] Some proponents of remigration suggest excluding some persons with non-European background from such a mass deportation, based on a varyingly defined degree of assimilation into European culture. 6]
[7][8]
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
God, that show. Finished the first season and I was like okay but where does this go from here??
static.klipy.com
Pacha Just Right Meme Reaction
ALT: Pacha Just Right Meme Reaction
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Some people who don't know details may assume "they rely on Python for stuff a lot of humans wouldn't need to" and "they have basic arithmetic tokenized" means "they've memorized everything except what they're using a secret calculator for" but that's not Flat Earth wrong even tho it's wrong.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Like when you look at non-tool-calling non-thinking models they do fail at more complex stuff even tho they can add big numbers via simplifying heuristics like breaking into multiple problems by place value. When you ask models like Fable to do more complicated math they do use Python.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I can't speak for everyone but isn't at least some of the confusion here that a lot of these models both have arithmetic tokenized but also rely internally on e.g. Python to do calcs for "harder" maths that would not seem out of their "ability" for a human capable of adding two big numbers together?
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Isn't that just because it's relying on relatively basic tokenized arithmetic employed in sort of an absurd use, and why when you don't constrain them to not these models have been trained to use Python (and less commonly some other languages with calculation capabilities)?
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Okay so I'm looking at this? gist.github.com/simonw/8ef79... It looks like this is using tokenized arithmetic (looking at both the successes and the failures). Am I wildly off base here?
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Hmm that's blocked for me. I'll see if I can see it somehow on the web version.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Is there an example of this described somewhere? I'm not familiar with the entire literature out there, so my understanding is that stuff like Fable can create argumentation/logic but still has to actually calculate through Python or otherwise it fails. But maybe you're talking about the failures?
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
LLMs do have a lot of basic arithmetic tokenized. For more complex maths they use eg Python. Are we talking about something else here or am I missing something?
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
bsky.app/profile/pjac...
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Tube Mapper- Luke Agbaimoni @tubemapper.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Here's a collection of photos taken at a variety of locations on the Glasgow Subway shop.tubemapper.com/Glasgow-Subw... :-)
shop.tubemapper.com
Glasgow Subway Photography - Tube Mapper Shop - London Underground Photography
Buy Glasgow Subway PrintsShop Home > | Info on Main Site >
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Tube Mapper- Luke Agbaimoni @tubemapper.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
PRINT OF THE DAY I do sometimes photograph things other than the London Underground! Today we’re heading up to Scotland & the brilliantly yellow West Street Station on the Glasgow Subway. I love the futuristic look of these trains in this composite photo. If you like this print see link attached
Trains on the Glasgow Subway
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
No El Niño in modern times has been this east-based this early in the year, to say nothing of at this strength.
A plot of the ENSO Longitude Index from cyclonicwx.comThe ELI vs. RONI, from cyclonicwx.com
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James Hell Brooks @kleinman.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
SEN. ERIC SCHMITT: Do these texts not prove that a shrimp fried this rice?
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
And now Big Balls & associates (who are working for the National Design Studio) are attempting to get access to sensitive federal data via the new Executive Order about America dot gov.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
So if you're comparing forecasts to obs be sure to compare not just the 3.4 region but also look at the other ones. You'll probably see 4 overestimated, possibly 3.4 slightly overestimated, but 3 as well as 1+2 underestimated (relativized or not).
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This event is underestimated by any index focusing on the NINO3.4 region alone compared to other large events, because it is much more east-based. You can see this by looking at things like the ELI or subsurface heat in combination with RONI or RONI plus the other NINO regions, relativized or not.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
They're calling it a La(m)b Leak.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
there's a short sequence in Flow that reminds me a bit of this, tho perhaps the buildings were more Venetian if memory serves.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I had a pretty similar reaction to seeing the trailer cold. I've subsequently seen a lot of very positive stuff about the author, his previous books, and to some extent the book that this movie is adapted from. I don't know if you'd heard of Angel Down, but it's the same author.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
showboating Victorian bare knuckle boxer, referring to his right and left fists:
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
static.klipy.com
Eric Andre: Why Are You Booing Me?
Alt: Hannibal: Why Are You Booing Me? I'm right!
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
bsky.app/profile/lias...
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Dave Vetter @davidrvetter.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Happy Kicked In The Head By A Horse Day, to all who celebrate. It's the 7th anniversary of this absolute banger.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
want you to know that this made me uncontrollably giggle
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Hell yeah
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The Peacock and the Sparrow was good. Any publicly shareable word on timeline for her next book?
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Relative NINO3.4 anomaly is already over +2.5C and this event is not over. Motivated reasoning is a helluva drug.
Climate denialist claiming that the current El Niño would fall short of the mark set by the 1982/83 event in terms of the relative NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly not exceeding 2.4C.A time series plot of the Relative NINO3.4 anomaly showing recent values have exceeded 2.5C and continue to rise. From @cyclonicwx.bsky.social cyclonicwx.com website.Hovmöller plot showing deep tropics (5N-5S) 850hpa zonal windspeed anomalies over time, with observed strong westerly wind bursts to date and continued westerly winds in the forecast period.
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Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
feels like a real landmark of impunity that major corporations are making federal crimes part of the interview process
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Micah @rincewind.run · 21/09/2026
congratulations to everyone on reinventing Worse Cable
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
1, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Arguably 2 but I'll be generous and say no for that one. bsky.app/profile/pjac...
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
These will be increasingly useful in helping people understand some common cognitive pitfalls. Enjoy.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
I'll stop injecting Lab Leak conspiracism critiques into everything when everything stops being Lab Leak adjacent.
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Dominique Baker @bakerdphd.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
"...findings that 3 [insts] violated civil rights law by tolerating antisemitism were predetermined by political priorities that blew past the evidence and cast aside standard investigative procedures..." Reading the whistleblower statement and taking rage breaks www.ms.now/news/frame-u...
ms.now
Whistleblower says probes into antisemitism at colleges were ploys to harass and strip millions
A former Justice Department lawyer says the Trump investigations squeezed Ivy League universities for millions before they were even concluded. A top Democrat is demanding answers.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
I suspect"Inscrutable" is a category error that unnecessary anthropomorphizing creates. If you could see the full "reasoning" by every member of the system involved rather than just *hearing about* a subset you'd probably see something more like evolutionary trial & error w/words than coherent plans
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Four panel cartoon of a kid who looks a little like Ed Norton hanging a red blanket and creating monsters/demons and fire using paint and cardboard and finally laying down rolling on the ground in horror.
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
You Might Think White Supremacists are Distasteful; Here’s Why You’re Wrong part 315 of an ongoing series at the New York Times
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Fair to say that the massive amounts of Russian and American money swirling around the white collar, business, NGO worlds for the past 20 years contributed to this situation or would it be like this regardless?
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
A screenshot of Sabrina Carpenter singing "Nobody's Son" on Saturday Night Live with parody lyrics displayed as text on screen. The parody lyrics read,

"Here we go again penetrated
What a familiar feeling
Entire seventh floor's 
An open door
To active measures spieling
Probably should have known 
The threat's home grown
Corrupt and self-deceiving
There's no tool or gun 
'cept Angleton's
Left for me to believe in."
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Reward hacking is a well known problem with reinforcement learning and has been for what, decades? This seems like a pretty straightforward case of human error in setting up the testing environment and the tested systems themselves failing in a way worse than you'd expect from something intelligent.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Will, can you explain how how this example demonstrates AI working well instead of it working incorrectly? Maybe I'm completely misunderstanding the assigned task.
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
NSF has reduced the research budget for all atmospheric, ocean, and earth sciences by ~80%. 80%! A lot of us will not be conducting new research or training new students for the foreseeable future.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Libby plus library checkouts, Libro.FM for paid?
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
EXCUSE YOU?? (but also love Chrisjen so I'll let it slide this time)
Bobbie Draper from The Expanse in Goliath armor.
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