Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 21hNot trying to pick on anyone, but it seems like there are wx people out there who don't understand the time lags involved with the atmospheric coupling or expressing the built up subsurface heat, to say nothing of how seasonality interacts here. Nothing so far indicating this event has peaked sadly. 020
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026No El Niño in modern times has been this east-based this early in the year, to say nothing of at this strength. 011
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Relative NINO3.4 anomaly is already over +2.5C and this event is not over. Motivated reasoning is a helluva drug. 031
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 19/09/2026These will be increasingly useful in helping people understand some common cognitive pitfalls. Enjoy. 1135
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 17/09/2026EXCUSE YOU?? (but also love Chrisjen so I'll let it slide this time) 040
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 16/09/2026(After deleting my 3am "Who up sloughing they house RN?" skeet in attempt to bond with UK blueskies that got zero likes) 120
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 15/09/2026This pic ⤵️ & the unfolding ENSO event remind me of an incredible piece of trivia: Sylvester Stallone was going to star in a movie where an El Niño somehow thaws out a pack of sabertooth tigers which then kill a bunch of people in and around Los Angeles before being taken down by an anthropologist. 061
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 13/09/2026The "Head of Strategic Futures" for OpenAI saying that the transparent ploy to get a government moat isn't exactly what it looks like because 'uh antitrust law uh makes it double super illegal for companies to uh voluntarily coordinate on public safety, yeah that's it' 🥴 050
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 13/09/2026sold out 70mm showing of Aliens, when Ripley comes out in the Loader everyone loses their dang minds 030
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 12/09/2026Mea culpa. We do have a plausible, concrete answer as to how AI will be able to exterminate humanity. And don't worry it's not some silly sci fi narrative like grey goo or superviruses! It's *checks notes* uh... the plot from T2: Judgment Day 241
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 11/09/2026post a witch "Old Virginia" from the short story of that name by @lairdbarron.bsky.social (image from the LairdBarron subreddit / rickyho_concept on IG) 111
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Do you just discourse surf topics involving race, genetics, Nazism, etc. and try to sealion people? Does this typically work out well for you? 100
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 07/09/2026Well sure I guess technically "show posts from only people you follow in reverse chronological order" is also an 'algorithm' but something tells me professional take haver Singal might be talking out of his ass again. 071
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 05/09/2026The traditional Southern Oscillation Index is the atm pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, which generally does an *okay* job capturing ENSO related changes in atmospheric circulation in the tropics, but is less well spatially positioned compared to the Equatorial SOI & other alternatives. 130
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 05/09/2026In addition to (or only somewhat additionally, as these are interrelated) the WWBs, the incredible amount of subsurface heat, how far east the event already is, the obvious shift in convection, and other signs all point to a continued self-sustaining & likely self-invigorating coupled event. 140
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 05/09/2026Two flavors of 2026/2027 El Niño minimizers on display. Left: Atlantic hurricane wishcaster. Right: anthropogenic climate denier. Both hoping the traditional Southern Oscillation Index is showing what they want to see. (Both wrong.) 1124
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 04/09/2026I've already seen people arguing the current El Niño event peaked & is below expectations. I don't think they understand what the atmosphere & subsurface heat are building towards. It's a marathon not a sprint. (Deep tropics 850mb zonal wind anomalies via @cyclonicwx.bsky.social 's cyclonicwx site) 2232
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Bobbing for apples in an ice bath because it's another triple digit heat index day, I see the vision. 021
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Unsurprisingly after the streak of daily record values, August will almost certainly go down as nominally the hottest on record for reanalysis products. Large jump up from July. However large parts of the SH may experience moderate cooling in the weeks to come, so a record hot Sep not a slam dunk. 010
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 29/08/2026A newly uncovered series of photographs from 1973 documents what would become an historic interaction between Dolly Parton (left) meeting an 8 year old girl named 'Jolene' (right), and being so struck by the girl's name that Parton promises the girl she will write a song about her. 110
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 24/08/2026We have been breaking daily global 2m temperature records for about 2 weeks and daily 60N-60S sea surface temp records for about a month. The current El Niño event is not yet at full strength and the impacts on global temps will not be felt in full for months. 021
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 24/08/2026There is utility in debunking the various lies & distortions in this NYT op-ed, both for the "biosafety" pretext and the Lab Leaker idiocy at its heart. But take a step back & recognize how odious it that anyone is willing to promote such crank bs to get attention for their own biosafety projects. 095
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 23/08/2026Sunk cost thinking as a reason some don't give up is very common in such movements / social groups, including not just conspiracy theories but also e.g. cults or extremist groups. Again I do not personally know him so I don't know how much of that is going on with him personally. Alina Chan tho... 000
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 21/08/2026I have heard that the domain specific terminology among tropical dynamicists when you see a combination of plots like this is: "Lol. LMAO." I'm still learning the acronyms but I think I get the gist? 010
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 21/08/2026At long last we've perfectly created the conditions for the Monster Plot from the classic Angleton CI treatise Don't Facilitate The Monster Plot 111021
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 21/08/2026Lotta rich guys out there who "know" COVID was frankensteined up by China & think anyone who believes otherwise hasn't seen "the evidence". Incredible arbitrage opportunity. Sure Peter Miller & the Slate Star Codex guy have already won half a million off them, but plenty of juice left to squeeze. 1227
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026While we're on the topic, it's worth recalling how Creationists/Intelligent Design advocates were focused not on demonstrating that their model of reality was best supported by the empirical evidence, but instead on creating the *appearance* of *unresolved* debate. www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.... 040
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026Responding to someone pointing out a scientific consensus that contradicts your conspiracy theory by saying that consensus only exists because the world's scientific experts are secretly engaged in a conspiracy to cover up the truth and hoax the world. Very normal sane stuff! 👍 1109
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 17/08/2026An incredibly common gambit for pseudoscience, conspiracy theories, denialism, & the like is this: Proponents can't make their case empirically, so instead of creating a robust body of peer-reviewed scientific evidence, they target credulous non-science media outlets to push their crank BS instead. 2122
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 17/08/2026Many who took the time to understand how much Lab Leaker conspiracism was cross-pollinating with extant conspiracy beliefs like antivaxx noted that vocal Lab Leaker nuts would increasingly center those other crank views as evidence for COVID-19 supposedly being engineered failed to materialize. 😬 0149
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026NOAAGlobalTemp analysis from NOAA NCEI shows much the same - hottest nominal July on record though effectively tied with past recent record setters. www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-... 041
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026Very similar spatial patterns (accounting for scale / reference period) so my intuition is that it's indeed down to SSTs vs. SATs. 151
Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026July 2026 came in as the hottest on record, according to NASA GISTEMP, though July 2024 and 2023 (which each previously set records) are within the uncertainty of the analysis. Data from GISTEMP: data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Uncertainty from Lenssen et al. 2024: doi.org/10.1029/2023... 22812