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Peter Jacobs

@pjacobs.bsky.social
3.9K followers 1.7K following 3.2K posts

climate science (paleo, modern, future); public understanding of science (consensus, conspiracy theories, pseudoscience) ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6951-7126 Mastodon: fediscience.org/@peterjacobs Bird Site: twitter.com/past_is_future

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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 21h
That's right.
A still from Michael Mann's 2006 film version of Miami Vice.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 21h
Not trying to pick on anyone, but it seems like there are wx people out there who don't understand the time lags involved with the atmospheric coupling or expressing the built up subsurface heat, to say nothing of how seasonality interacts here. Nothing so far indicating this event has peaked sadly.
Screenshot of a weather twitter person seeming to believe the current El Niño might have already maxed out.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
A tabloid composite image showing Natalie Portman speaking on a smartphone on one side and staring at the phone on the other. A speech bubble extends from the first image as though she is saying the text in the quoteskeet.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Director Jan de Bont talking to Keanu Reeves on the set of Speed (1994). There is a cartoon speech bubble above de Bont as though he is saying the words in the skeet above.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
No El Niño in modern times has been this east-based this early in the year, to say nothing of at this strength.
A plot of the ENSO Longitude Index from cyclonicwx.comThe ELI vs. RONI, from cyclonicwx.com
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Relative NINO3.4 anomaly is already over +2.5C and this event is not over. Motivated reasoning is a helluva drug.
Climate denialist claiming that the current El Niño would fall short of the mark set by the 1982/83 event in terms of the relative NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly not exceeding 2.4C.A time series plot of the Relative NINO3.4 anomaly showing recent values have exceeded 2.5C and continue to rise. From @cyclonicwx.bsky.social cyclonicwx.com website.Hovmöller plot showing deep tropics (5N-5S) 850hpa zonal windspeed anomalies over time, with observed strong westerly wind bursts to date and continued westerly winds in the forecast period.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
These will be increasingly useful in helping people understand some common cognitive pitfalls. Enjoy.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Four panel cartoon of a kid who looks a little like Ed Norton hanging a red blanket and creating monsters/demons and fire using paint and cardboard and finally laying down rolling on the ground in horror.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
A screenshot of Sabrina Carpenter singing "Nobody's Son" on Saturday Night Live with parody lyrics displayed as text on screen. The parody lyrics read,

"Here we go again penetrated
What a familiar feeling
Entire seventh floor's 
An open door
To active measures spieling
Probably should have known 
The threat's home grown
Corrupt and self-deceiving
There's no tool or gun 
'cept Angleton's
Left for me to believe in."
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
EXCUSE YOU?? (but also love Chrisjen so I'll let it slide this time)
Bobbie Draper from The Expanse in Goliath armor.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
(After deleting my 3am "Who up sloughing they house RN?" skeet in attempt to bond with UK blueskies that got zero likes)
A screenshot from the show Derry Girls
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
This pic ⤵️ & the unfolding ENSO event remind me of an incredible piece of trivia: Sylvester Stallone was going to star in a movie where an El Niño somehow thaws out a pack of sabertooth tigers which then kill a bunch of people in and around Los Angeles before being taken down by an anthropologist.
Wikipedia text:

During the original filming of D-Tox in 1999, Sylvester Stallone became attached to star in another Universal produced film, an action horror entitled Fatalis. Written by novelist Jeff Rovin in 1998 and sold to Universal for over a million dollars, the script for the film concerned a huge pack of saber-toothed tigers who come back to life after an El Niño hurricane awakens them from being frozen inside an ancient sinkhole for thousands of years. They start attacking any humans they run into while moving down the mountains and through the woods before eventually attacking Los Angeles.[9][10] Rovin, who wrote the novelization of Stallone's Cliffhanger (1993) and his biography, wrote Fatalis with Stallone in mind for the lead role of an anthropologist who, along with a female reporter he befriends, wants to capture the tigers alive as they are our last link with the past, however the local sheriff wants to destroy them. The film went into pre-production by 2000, but following the huge failure of D-Tox and Stallone's other films, Universal ceased production and it went unproduced, though Rovin later turned his script into very successful novel of the same name. Rovin did the same with Vespers, another cancelled action-horror film from around the same time, which would have focused on giant bats that attack New York City. When asked in 2021 about the chances of Fatalis being produced twenty years later, Rovin revealed that Stallone still owns the rights to the original story, and he suspects it will not be produced.An old Las Vegas Sun News item:

Variety has reported that the thriller "Fatalis" has just been optioned by Universal Pictures. The movie, which is already being mentioned as a possible Sylvester Stallone project, follows at least one thought-to- be-extinct sabertooth tiger going on a rampage through downtown Los Angeles. Meow! All this happens after El Nino-induced climate changes force the creature(s) to leave their hidden habitat. Quick, get me 5,000 catnip mouse toys!
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
A prayer candle with the face of CIA counterintelligence legend James Angleton on it.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
The "Head of Strategic Futures" for OpenAI saying that the transparent ploy to get a government moat isn't exactly what it looks like because 'uh antitrust law uh makes it double super illegal for companies to uh voluntarily coordinate on public safety, yeah that's it' 🥴
Dean Ball lying about antitrust law.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
sold out 70mm showing of Aliens, when Ripley comes out in the Loader everyone loses their dang minds
A black and white image of Martin Scorsese seated with his hands raised in the air.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Mea culpa. We do have a plausible, concrete answer as to how AI will be able to exterminate humanity. And don't worry it's not some silly sci fi narrative like grey goo or superviruses! It's *checks notes* uh... the plot from T2: Judgment Day
A screenshot of a tweet claiming to articulate how AI can exterminate humanity, that bears more than a passing resemblance to the plot of James Cameron's Terminator films.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
post a witch "Old Virginia" from the short story of that name by @lairdbarron.bsky.social (image from the LairdBarron subreddit / rickyho_concept on IG)
An image of a pale bald woman crouched on the back of a man standing up with his hands by his sides, in a dark room that appears to be out in the woods.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Do you just discourse surf topics involving race, genetics, Nazism, etc. and try to sealion people? Does this typically work out well for you?
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
incredible
A meme showing Steve Rogers / Captain America being ganged up on while saying "I need to tell them I understood that reference!"
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
You already know where this is headed.
"Academic Courage" (sic) prize announced in the WSJ op-ed page by Bill Ackman and Roland Fryer which will inevitably highlight the same debunked "heterodox" idiocy as every other such effort. Scene from Not Another Teen Movie (2001).  The setting is a high school hallway. In the top panel, Catherine Wyler (played by Mia Kirshner) asks her younger brother Jake (Chris Evans) "Hi Jake. Can I ask you a question? Why is it every time I tell a guy he can publish any idea he wants..." and in the lower panel she continues "He always tries to recycle race 'science'?" The original dialogue ('stick it anywhere he wants' and 'stick it in my ass') is clearly visible beneath the revised text.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Well sure I guess technically "show posts from only people you follow in reverse chronological order" is also an 'algorithm' but something tells me professional take haver Singal might be talking out of his ass again.
A screenshot of Jesse Singal accusing Dave Roberts of being enslaved by Bluesky 's "algorithm".
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Still slaps.
A theater placard for Akira 4k
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
The traditional Southern Oscillation Index is the atm pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, which generally does an *okay* job capturing ENSO related changes in atmospheric circulation in the tropics, but is less well spatially positioned compared to the Equatorial SOI & other alternatives.
A map showing the difference between the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index regions and the two stations in (Darwin & Tahiti) used in the traditional SOI, from NOAA.Time series plots showing the difference in standard deviatons for the traditional Southern Oscillation Index and the Equatorial SOI. From NOAA CPC.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
In addition to (or only somewhat additionally, as these are interrelated) the WWBs, the incredible amount of subsurface heat, how far east the event already is, the obvious shift in convection, and other signs all point to a continued self-sustaining & likely self-invigorating coupled event.
ARMOR3D deep tropics (5N-5S) subsurface temperature anomalies from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social website cyclonicwx.comNINO3.4 SST vs. El Niño Longitude Index plot from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social website cyclonicwx.com.Outgoing Longwave Radiation anomalies for August 2026 from NOAA CPC.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Two flavors of 2026/2027 El Niño minimizers on display. Left: Atlantic hurricane wishcaster. Right: anthropogenic climate denier. Both hoping the traditional Southern Oscillation Index is showing what they want to see. (Both wrong.)
A social media account that has consistently downplayed or second guessed the expert views on the strength of the current El Niño event asking why the traditional Southern Oscillation Index is rising.A crank climate denial account who has an anti-expertise view of the current El Niño because of his anti-expertise view on climate more generally pointing to the Southern Oscillation Index as evidence the 'hype' around the current event was overblown.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Bro really said
A panel of a transformers comic where Megatron is depicted saying, "Beg? It is you should beg me, Shockwave -- for my forgiveness!"A well known two panel meme "Call the ambulance! But not for me!"
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I've already seen people arguing the current El Niño event peaked & is below expectations. I don't think they understand what the atmosphere & subsurface heat are building towards. It's a marathon not a sprint. (Deep tropics 850mb zonal wind anomalies via @cyclonicwx.bsky.social 's cyclonicwx site)
A hovmöller diagram showing GFS zonal wind anomaly values for the equatorial (5N-5S) pacific, with high values representing a new westerly wind burst (WWB) appearing in the forecast.A hovmöller diagram showing ECMWF zonal wind anomaly values for the equatorial (5N-5S) pacific, with high values representing a new westerly wind burst (WWB) appearing in the forecast.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
A screengrab from The Minecraft Movie depicting a young Steve at the site of an abandoned mine with text on screen reading "As a child, I yearned for the mines" but with the word "SLIDES" written over and obscuring "mines".
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Bobbing for apples in an ice bath because it's another triple digit heat index day, I see the vision.
A vintage poster / card showing a girl bobbing for apples near a black cat with text reading "Hallowe'en Pleasures"

"Bobbing, bobbing 
    everywhere 
Apples in a tub."
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Bobby Hill from the animated show King of the Hill shown seated in a vehicle saying "Dad, can I have permission to say 'Hell, yeah'?"
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Unsurprisingly after the streak of daily record values, August will almost certainly go down as nominally the hottest on record for reanalysis products. Large jump up from July. However large parts of the SH may experience moderate cooling in the weeks to come, so a record hot Sep not a slam dunk.
A spatial map of GEOS-FP pseudo anomaly 2m air temperature values, created using MERRA-2 for the climatology. Warmer areas are in reds covering much of the globe, with cooler areas in blues covering much less
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
To all who celebrate
Gillian Anderson as FBI Special Agent Dana Scully, speaking into a recorder at the scene of an autopsy. She is saying "The date is August 29."Gillian Anderson as FBI Special Agent Dana Scully, speaking into a recorder at the scene of an autopsy. She is saying "The time is 4:15p.m."
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
A newly uncovered series of photographs from 1973 documents what would become an historic interaction between Dolly Parton (left) meeting an 8 year old girl named 'Jolene' (right), and being so struck by the girl's name that Parton promises the girl she will write a song about her.
The "For the better. Right?" Anakin and Padme meme. 

More context: https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/for-the-better-right
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Got a review for both prongs of that.
A photo of Eva Green with both middle fingers extended.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Deleted tweet from Children's Health Defense, RFK Jr.'s antivaxx group, accusing Dolly Parton of killing people because she helped fund a life saving vaccine.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
We have been breaking daily global 2m temperature records for about 2 weeks and daily 60N-60S sea surface temp records for about a month. The current El Niño event is not yet at full strength and the impacts on global temps will not be felt in full for months.
"stefan
@boring_as_heck
[mysterious old lady flips tarot card revealing a dude who looks exactly like me flying a hot air balloon into power lines]
Me: is that good"
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
There is utility in debunking the various lies & distortions in this NYT op-ed, both for the "biosafety" pretext and the Lab Leaker idiocy at its heart. But take a step back & recognize how odious it that anyone is willing to promote such crank bs to get attention for their own biosafety projects.
An image of the nintendo character Kirby "eating the frame" as popularized by @anthonymoser.com . The image shows Kirby eating a shape with the words "China & Fauci frankensteined up the pandemic" while a larger block of text over Kirby reads "ghouls are lying about a pandemic caused by a natural virus to promote their own prior agendas".
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
"academic freedom"
scene from Not Another Teen Movie (2001).  The setting is a high school hallway. In the top panel, Catherine Wyler (played by Mia Kirshner) asks her younger brother Jake (Chris Evans) "Hi Jake. Can I ask you a question? Why is it every time I tell a guy he can publish any idea he wants..." and in the lower panel she continues "He always tries to recycle race 'science'?" The original dialogue ('stick it anywhere he wants' and 'stick it in my ass') is clearly visible beneath the revised text.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Sunk cost thinking as a reason some don't give up is very common in such movements / social groups, including not just conspiracy theories but also e.g. cults or extremist groups. Again I do not personally know him so I don't know how much of that is going on with him personally. Alina Chan tho...
"Now that the lab-origin theory is being investigated by powerful organizations and taken seriously by a critical mass of respected scientists, I asked Chan how she would feel if the virus did prove to have emerged naturally, which most scientists still seem to believe is more likely.

“I have days where I think this could be natural. And if it’s natural, then I’ve done a terrible thing because I’ve put a lot of scientists in a very dangerous spot by saying that they could be the source of an accident that resulted in millions of people dying,” she says. “I would feel terrible if it’s natural and I did all this.”"
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I have heard that the domain specific terminology among tropical dynamicists when you see a combination of plots like this is: "Lol. LMAO." I'm still learning the acronyms but I think I get the gist?
A time series plot of relative NINO3.4 sea surface temperatures showing that the current El Nino event is on par with (and has warmed more rapidly than) the monster 1997 event, from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social website.A hovmoller diagram of ECMWF 850mb zonal wind speed over time in the deep tropics, showing more anomalous westerly winds forecast which should create more tropical pacific ocean warming, from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social website.A seasonal time series plot from Copernicus/ECMWF showing that daily global temperatures have already been at record highs for this time of year, compared to all prior years going back to 1940.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
At long last we've perfectly created the conditions for the Monster Plot from the classic Angleton CI treatise Don't Facilitate The Monster Plot
"A historic wave of departures at the CIA and deep cutbacks at the Office of Personnel Management are swamping the spy agency’s retirement system, leaving former spies with months-long waits to get their first pension check, according to former intelligence officials and internal agency messages."
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Lotta rich guys out there who "know" COVID was frankensteined up by China & think anyone who believes otherwise hasn't seen "the evidence". Incredible arbitrage opportunity. Sure Peter Miller & the Slate Star Codex guy have already won half a million off them, but plenty of juice left to squeeze.
"Scott bet 250k against the lab leak theory and won.

I think that was a better use of his time than reading a bunch of tedious Michael Weissman substack posts.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-446"
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
While we're on the topic, it's worth recalling how Creationists/Intelligent Design advocates were focused not on demonstrating that their model of reality was best supported by the empirical evidence, but instead on creating the *appearance* of *unresolved* debate. www.pnas.org/doi/full/10....
he calls specified complexity; specified complexity is, he argues, a reliable indicator of design. The only biological structure to which Dembski attempts to apply his method is the bacterial flagellum (16). Noting that the chance of its parts assembling at random is astronomically low, and relying on Behe's argument to exclude gradual evolutionary assembly, Dembski concludes that it was intelligently designed. Like Behe, however, he asserts that science is incapable of proceeding further to determine the nature of the designer or the means by which the design was instantiated.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Responding to someone pointing out a scientific consensus that contradicts your conspiracy theory by saying that consensus only exists because the world's scientific experts are secretly engaged in a conspiracy to cover up the truth and hoax the world. Very normal sane stuff! 👍
A New York Times columnist engaged in stereotypical conspiracy theorist argumentation.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
An incredibly common gambit for pseudoscience, conspiracy theories, denialism, & the like is this: Proponents can't make their case empirically, so instead of creating a robust body of peer-reviewed scientific evidence, they target credulous non-science media outlets to push their crank BS instead.
A three panel comic book style sequential illustration of an eye-roll.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Many who took the time to understand how much Lab Leaker conspiracism was cross-pollinating with extant conspiracy beliefs like antivaxx noted that vocal Lab Leaker nuts would increasingly center those other crank views as evidence for COVID-19 supposedly being engineered failed to materialize. 😬
A screenshot of a tweet from 2022 showing a latecomer vocal Lab Leaker espousing pro vaccine views.A screenshot of the same vocal Lab Leaker from 2026 trafficking in classic anti-vaxx idiocy.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
NOAAGlobalTemp analysis from NOAA NCEI shows much the same - hottest nominal July on record though effectively tied with past recent record setters. www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-...
A bar plot of global July temperatures from NOAA.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Very similar spatial patterns (accounting for scale / reference period) so my intuition is that it's indeed down to SSTs vs. SATs.
A spatial map of July 2026 temperature anomalies from GISTEMP, with cooler areas depicted in blues and warmer areas depicted in reds. Most of the map is red with a pronounced tropical pacific El Niño warming apparent.
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
July 2026 came in as the hottest on record, according to NASA GISTEMP, though July 2024 and 2023 (which each previously set records) are within the uncertainty of the analysis. Data from GISTEMP: data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Uncertainty from Lenssen et al. 2024: doi.org/10.1029/2023...
A bar plot of July global temperature anomalies using GISTEMP data from NASA GISS. Months cooler than the 1951-1980 reference period are shown as negative, blueish bars. Months warmer than the reference period are shown as positive, reddish bars. There is a clear warming trend over time. Small grey error bars appear on the values for the years 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026 showing that some were effectively tied, with 2026 being nominally first, 2024 being nominally second, and 2023 being nominally third.
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