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Patrick Gerland

@pgerland.bsky.social
153 followers 125 following 30 posts

Focus on demographic estimation problems/methods and projections, especially in Africa and Asia. www.researchgate.net/profile/Patric…

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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Counting the dead to help the living: Inaugural Lecture by Prof. Prabhat Jha, Head of Department, Oxford Univ,, Nuffield Professor of Population Health, on Wednesday, 18 March 2026, from 5:00–6:00 pm (UK time). Accessible online via link below just before 5:00 pm UK. vimeo.com/event/485875...
vimeo.com
Counting the dead to help the living
Inaugural Lecture Presented by Prabhat Jha, Head of Department, Nuffield Professor of Population Health 18 March 2026
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
📢 Event alert: UNICEF + UN IGME #UNSC57 Measuring Child Mortality & Overcoming Data Gaps 3 Mar | 1:15–2:30 EST | NY + Online: forms.office.com/e/BNZxS0dZ9  Practical approaches — mobile phone surveys + analytical tools — to collect child mortality data where CRVS is incomplete. #data #mortality
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
Are we letting demographic data become just another commodity? New paper by Edith Darin warns against the privatization of population stats. It’s time to treat these data as shared resource—a "common good"—not trade secret. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... #OpenData #PublicGood #DataGovernance
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
Panic over falling fertility? 📉 A new Lancet editorial argues against coercive "quick fixes" to reverse declining birth rates. Instead of forcing a baby boom, the focus must shift to adapting global health systems for an ageing population. 🌍🏥 #GlobalHealth #Fertility #Demographics
thelancet.com
Responding to declining global fertility rates
The levying of a 13% tax on condoms sold in China from Jan 1 is the country's latest policy aimed at reversing its falling total fertility rate (TFR; the average number of children a woman might expec...
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
Here is a comparison for the world population.un.org/wup/countryp...
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
See our online FAQ 11 on DEGURBA population.un.org/wup/faqs on the difference between the DEGURBA results and national urban definitions
population.un.org
World Urbanization Prospects
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WorldPopProject @worldpopproject.mapstodon.space.ap.brid.gy · 19/11/2025
This morning Andy Tatem is speaking at the #HumanPlanetForum sharing our Global 2 new high-resolution population datasets - as the UN launches World Urbanization Prospects 2025. Watch live: webcast.ec.europa.eu/geo-human-plan…
Map showing eastern Afghanistan Population Density
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Explore detailed methods, and additional geospatial data, & interactive visualizations on the European Commission’s website. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu/ghs_wup2025....
human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu
Global Human Settlement - Population in cities, towns and rural areas from 1950 to 2100 - European Commission
The GHSL framework produces thematic information and evidence-based knowledge supporting the implementation of EU urban policy and the international frameworks.
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Thanks to all the team involved, but especially the collaboration with the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and DG for Regional and Urban Policy which has been key in creating the global Degree of Urbanization dataset.
human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu
Global Human Settlement - Population in cities, towns and rural areas from 1950 to 2100 - European Commission
The GHSL framework produces thematic information and evidence-based knowledge supporting the implementation of EU urban policy and the international frameworks.
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
The 2025 revision introduces a major innovation: integrating geospatial methods via the harmonized Degree of Urbanization with national urban definitions. This dual approach ensures consistent global measurement and sharper insights into settlement patterns for sustainable development
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Today, launching the World Urbanization Prospects 2025 with new UN estimates and projections of urbanization for 237 countries and areas of the world & 12,000+ cities with 50,000+ inhabitants in 2025. www.un.org/development/... - see also new online datasets and plots: population.un.org/wup/
un.org
Launch: World Urbanization Prospects 2025 | Population Division
The World Urbanization Prospects 2025 will be launched on Tuesday, 18 November 2025 at 12:45 (EST).
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
UK Humanitarian Innovation Hub: Funding Opportunity: Mortality Estimation in Humanitarian Crises - Systems Innovation Partnership: To apply and/or share - Call for Expressions of Interest (lnkd.in/e7cv_VUS) - UKHIH Website (www.ukhih.org/news/now-ope...). ► EOI deadline: 11 August 2025, 5pm UTC
lnkd.in
LinkedIn
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
For further details about teh UN projection assumptions and methods, see: population.un.org/wpp/methodol..., in particular: World Population Prospects 2024: Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections. population.un.org/wpp/assets/F...
population.un.org
World Population Prospects
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
See also online data sources for each country underlying empirical data: population.un.org/wpp/data-sou... including interactive plots: population.un.org/dataportal/d...
population.un.org
World Population Prospects
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
If you have any additional ideas about what the UN should do about this statistical modelling challenge, all ideas are welcome to explore for future potential improvements, and out-of-sample validation at national and subnational level.
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
A recent interview with BBC Radio 4 - More or Less: Behind the Stats, Is the UN underestimating the global fall in fertility? www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p... and online TFR plots to browse more countries: population.un.org/wpp/graphs?l...
bbc.co.uk
BBC Radio 4 - More or Less: Behind the Stats, Is the UN underestimating the global fall in fertility?
How one graph shows the conservative side of the United Nations’ population estimates
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) @mpidr.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
🚨Job Offer🚨 St Andrews–Max Planck PhD Studentship in Population, Health and Data Science 3.5-year St Andrews–Max Planck PhD studentship in Population, Health and Data Science. Deadline: June 11 @mpidr.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social @imprs-phds.bsky.social www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61...
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Hampton Gaddy @hggaddy.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
🚨 New paper: when researchers study epidemics, disasters, or conflicts but don't know how many people died, they often subtract pre and post population estimates or do a crude projection. Unfortunately, this almost never provides an accurate death toll 🧵 www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol5...
demographic-research.org
Demographic Research - Can we estimate crisis death tolls by subtracting total population estimates? A critical review and appraisal (Volume 52 - Article 23 | Pages 741–796)
Volume 52 - Article 23 | Pages 741–796
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Monica Alexander @monjalexander.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
Reminder that the Formal Demography Working Group is meeting tomorrow! Sign up to receive Zoom details: formaldemography.github.io/working_group/
formaldemography.github.io
Welcome
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 14/05/2025
Topical cluster map of terms used in recently cancelled NIH grants. No surprises there I guess. Data by grant-watch.us and NYT for the flagged terms. Source code available here github.com/jschoeley/gr....
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
See also childmortality.org?indicator=SBR from UN-IGME for global and country data and internationally comparable estimates of stillbirth rates, neonatal and infant mortality available in an harmonized way. See also PDF reports and articles at the bottom of the home page.
childmortality.org
CME Info - Child Mortality Estimates
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Hannah Ritchie @hannahritchie.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Where in the world are babies at the lowest risk of dying? Seems simple to answer, but countries count live births and infant deaths slightly differently. I look at the data in my latest article: ourworldindata.org/where-are-ba...
ourworldindata.org
Where in the world are babies at the lowest risk of dying?
It’s difficult to compare countries because they don’t always measure infant mortality in the same way.
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) @mpidr.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
🆕 study reveals global patterns of the migration of scientists shedding light on how researchers move both within and between countries. A team of researchers @mpidr.bsky.social found large disparities in the appeal of various countries and regions to scientists. www.demogr.mpg.de/go/migration...
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Marc Keuschnigg @marckeuschnigg.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
We are hiring postdocs in Computational Social Science 📍SweCSS, Norrköping, Sweden ⏰Deadline June 3 🔗https://liu.se/en/work-at-liu/vacancies/26854 Please apply // help us spread the word
Norrköping campus at sunset
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Lucia Ruggiero @lruggiero.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) | IDMC - Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre www.internal-displacement.org/global-repor...
internal-displacement.org
2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID)
The 2024 Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) report presents the data and analysis behind the 75.9 million people living in internal displacement as of the end of 2023. It is the ninth editi...
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Some potential funding support for UK students who are assessed as having a Home/UK fee status and who meet the residency requirements as defined by ESRC Studentship regulations.
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WorldPop Project @worldpop-uos.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Using satellite imagery and advanced spatial modelling we are collaborating with #UNHCR to innovate mapping of displaced populations and unlocking the power of registration data. By WorldPop's Dr Sarchil Qader and Edith Darin, and others. #refugees #geodata #mapping medium.com/unhcr-innova...
medium.com
Smarter refugee surveys for a more effective humanitarian response
UNHCR and WorldPop are innovating the mapping of displaced populations and unlocking the power of registration data
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Progedo @progedo.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
📢 L’IR Progedo #recrute un ou une ingénieur·e d'études en production, traitement, analyse de données et enquêtes dans le cadre du projet ANR EXO-POPP, sous la direction de @sandrabree.bsky.social. 🔗 En savoir plus : exopopp.hypotheses.org 📌 Postulez avant le 1ᵉʳ juin 2025 : bit.ly/43hMBZV
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
East Asia demonstrates that financial incentives alone are insufficient to reverse declining birthrates. Deep-rooted issues like gender inequality in childcare, high living/education costs, and work-life imbalance need addressing for any profamily policy to succeed. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/21/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | MAGA Natalism Is Doomed to Fail
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Sandra Brée @sandrabree.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
[Recrutement] Je recrute, sur l'ANR Exo-POPP (Extraction Optique des entités nommées manuscrites pour les actes de mariage de la population de Paris (1880-1940) (exopopp.hypotheses.org) un ou une ingénieur·e pour 12 mois (localisation : Paris, @progedo.bsky.social ).
exopopp.hypotheses.org
EXO-POPP – Extraction Optique des entités nommées manuscrites pour les actes de mariage de la population de Paris (1880-1940)
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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 12/05/2025
Ever wondered why some charts are more effective and engaging than others? I’ll be going through all the theory, evidence and principles behind compelling data storytelling from this Wednesday. Free to watch for anyone who is interested: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-fundam...
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Demographic Research @demresjournal.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
Open call for Associate Editors at our journal!! To find out more about requirements and application procedures 👀 here www.demographic-research.org/files/Call_f...
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
You are right, but at the time national authorities questioned the assumptions of model-based estimates of excess deaths based on limited empirical data publicly available. Years later these nationwide data show the magnitude of the overall mortality impact without any modeling assumptions.
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European Commission @ec.europa.eu · 08/05/2025
Choose Science. Choose Europe. A new Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Postdoctoral Fellowships 2025 call is now open. With a budget of €404.3 million, it will support around 1,650 researchers from Europe and beyond. Apply by 10 September → europa.eu/!fBTMgF
A graphic for the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA), showing a historical portrait of Marie Skłodowska-Curie overlaid with an image of four young researchers walking down a hallway. The European Commission logo is in the top left. Text reads: "Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions – €404.3 million to support postdoctoral researchers”
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Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
"The foundation will close its doors, permanently, on Dec. 31, 2045, at least several decades before originally intended. In the meantime, it will be spending down its endowment, as well as almost all of Gates’s remaining personal fortune." better than not www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/m...
nytimes.com
The $200 Billion Gamble: Bill Gates’s Plan to Wind Down His Foundation
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Lucia Ruggiero @lruggiero.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
A Roadmap to Accessing Mobile Network Data for Statistics www.data4sdgs.org/sites/defaul...
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Keep in mind that recent data carry over the momentum of past and recent efforts, but the global impact of the cut in international aid and development will affect, if not revert, some of these progresses.
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
India saw ~2 million excess deaths in 2021, govt data reveals: New SRS, CRS and MCCD reports from the RGI show the true toll of the pandemic year 2021. Official records now indicate over 2 million excess deaths—far more than the ~332k Covid deaths reported by states. #India #Covid19 #ExcessDeaths
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Mathew Kiang @mathewkiang.com · 07/05/2025
Whoa -- what a cool and terrifying paper. Under the most conservative global warming pathway, half of people born in 2020 will experience an "unprecedented lifetime exposure" to heatwaves. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes - Nature
Climate models, impact models and demographic data are used to estimate the number of people projected to experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to extreme climate events across multiple dimension...
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Daniel Naujoks @danielnaujoks.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
Today, UNDP lauched the latest edition of their flagship publication, the Human Development Report (HDR). The 2025 HDR focuses on 𝐴 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑖𝑐𝑒: 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐴𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 (𝐴𝐼). 1/3
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Monica Alexander @monjalexander.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
Hey demographers! We're starting up the formal demography working group again! Next Friday 16 May at 11:30am ET @hggaddy.bsky.social will talk to us about challenges in estimating crisis mortality. Excited! Head to the website to sign up for Zoom details: formaldemography.github.io/working_group/
formaldemography.github.io
Welcome
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Hilda Bastian @hildabast.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
Germany's central medical library, ZBMed, is building an alternative to PubMed. It will be open source, based on MeSH & associated data standards, built to be sustainable in case PubMed becomes unreliable - with APIs & MeSH maintenance. Open meeting called! 1/2 www.heise.de/news/Wegen-T... #MedLibs
heise.de
Wegen Trump: Zentralbibliothek Medizin baut Alternative zu US-Datenbank auf
Ein deutsches Informationszentrum will eine Alternative zur PubMed-Datenbank in den USA entwickeln, um die Informationsversorgung in der Biomedizin zu sichern.
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Guy Abel @guyabel.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
📢New paper out on measuring global #migration flows using online data in @pnas.org We use privacy-protected records from over 3 billion Facebook users to estimate migration flows between 181 countries, accounting for biases in social media usage 🔗https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2409418122
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Lucia Ruggiero @lruggiero.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
World report on social determinants of health equity @WHO #SDOH iris.who.int/bitstream/ha...
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Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
🚨 Researcher Reproductive Demography 📍 With @joshuawild.bsky.social 💰 £38.6–46.9k | fertility, maternal health, social, biological data 🧠 PhD (or close), 2 yrs, full-time. Big thinkers wanted. 🔗 Apply by 9 May → www.demography.ox.ac.uk/jobs #AcademicJobs #ReproHealth #Demography #Postdoc #OxJobs
demography.ox.ac.uk
Work with us
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Reuben College, University of Oxford @reubencollege.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Senior Research Fellow in Demographic Science, in partnership with @oxforddemsci.bsky.social Closing Soon - deadline: 8 May, 12 noon Job spec & application details: buff.ly/NZuCdJO
buff.ly
Senior Research Fellow in Demographic Science
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Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
🧬 Postdoc – Digital Pandemic Preparedness 📍 With @melindacmills.bsky.social 💼 £38.6K–£46.9K | 3-years 📅 Deadline: 16 May 2025 Digital, demographic & behavioural data for real-world readiness. 🔗 Apply: tinyurl.com/ydvfanap 📣 Share or tag! #Postdoc #ResearchJobs #DataScience #NowHiring
tinyurl.com
Work with us
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Emilio Zagheni @ezagheni.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
Join us and join a wonderful lineup of confirmed speakers for a lively exchange on climate change and demography. Deadline for submissions: May 15 👇👇👇
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Patrick Gerland @pgerland.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/h...
nytimes.com
Trump Administration Ends Global Health Research Program
The Demographic and Health Surveys were the only sources of reliable information in many countries on metrics such as mortality, nutrition and education.
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