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Jonas Schöley

@jschoeley.com
1K followers 478 following 186 posts

jschoeley.com • demoscapes.org • Demographer @mpidr.bsky.social Perinatal Demography • Mortality • Uncertainty • Dataviz

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Reposted by Jonas Schöley
Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 26/09/2026
Incredibly proud of Ricarda Duerst @mpidr.bsky.social who defended her thesis on "Learning from past mistakes". Ricarda started with the idea that a prediction is only as good as similar predictions in the past turned out to be and applied it to demographic forecasts. hdl.handle.net/10138/637205
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 26/09/2026
Incredibly proud of Ricarda Duerst @mpidr.bsky.social who defended her thesis on "Learning from past mistakes". Ricarda started with the idea that a prediction is only as good as similar predictions in the past turned out to be and applied it to demographic forecasts. hdl.handle.net/10138/637205
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 11/09/2026
Der Podcast lohnt sich. Hier @maxikniffka.bsky.social wie sie ihr Thema souverän in Rostock vor versammelter Gesellschaft und Politik präsentiert.
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 02/09/2026
Future death rates, wars, epidemics, disasters are uncertain. Does this matter for our individual uncertainty about the age of death? Not much, finds Ricarda Duerst in "The contribution of forecast uncertainty to lifespan uncertainty". Lifespan is intrinsically uncertain. doi.org/10.4054/DemR...
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Demographic Research @demresjournal.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
How much does uncertainty about future mortality contribute to uncertainty about how long an individual will live? Surprisingly little: Forecast variance accounts for less than 10% of total cohort lifespan variance in most cases. 👉 www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol... @jschoeley.com
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 24/06/2026
Early in life we're getting away from death. Later, we're moving towards it at an ever increasing pace. Ontogenescence-Senescence.
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 18/06/2026
Some of the stuff the LLM community produces is just hilarious for an outsider to witness.
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Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) @demographyvienna.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
🎉 Congratulations, Lina and Marc! Lina Lasar and Marc Luy won an EAPS Poster Award at the European Population Conference 2026 for their poster, "Healthy Life Years of Roma Populations in Europe". 🔗 All winners of the 2026 awards: www.eaps.nl/page/awards @eaps.bsky.social #demography #EPC2026
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Ilya Kashnitsky @ikashnitsky.phd · 15/06/2026
Today was a happy milestone — the first international guest coming to DST to give a talk at @skagerrak.bsky.social, and not just any guest but @jschoeley.com himself with a brilliant thought-provoking demographic talk and presentation of his brand new demoscapes.org 😍
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 12/06/2026
I agree. Am I a conservative now?
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Skagerrak Demographic Series @skagerrak.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
On 15th June at 11:00 @jschoeley.com will present his shining new project that he was secretly cooking with the relentless help of silicone friends 😍 🔗 events.teams.microsoft.com/event/839793...
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 08/06/2026
I can't judge the quality of this causal inference design. The effect sizes claimed are large. Does anyone care to weigh in?
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) @mpidr.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
And here is another Award for MPIDR! Congratulations! Aliakbar Akbaritabar and Tom Theile received the EAPS Open Science and Outreach Award for Population Studies for the Scholarly Migration Database. www.scholarlymigration.org #OpenScience #EPC2026 European Association for Population Studies
Two people are holding certificates for the 2023 EAPS Open Science and Outreach Award in front of a projection screen displaying information about the award.
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Aliakbar Akbaritabar @akbaritabar.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
#EPC2026 workshops just kicked off with @ugobas.bsky.social starting the introduction to the @eaps.bsky.social working group on open science. Looking forward to four days of discussions and learning. @mpidr.bsky.social
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 02/06/2026
Qualitative-sequential color scheme for distinguishing level from dynamics of age structure on a map, linked to sequence plots. Courageous viz. I love it.
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Scholarly Migration Database @smdatabase.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
We have a new major release! The Scholarly Migration Database 2.0 is now online! Working paper is here: dx.doi.org/10.4054/MPID... Updated data: doi.org/10.5281/zeno... Website: www.scholarlymigration.org
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 01/06/2026
From the days of typewriter prepared manuscripts to the LLMing of today's vibey journal submissions one constant remained: Double Spacing ! and All Figures Placed at the End ! Some changes are too disruptive to allow.
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Reposted by Jonas Schöley
Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 22/05/2026
Here are some of my favourite Lexis plots. 1. link.springer.com/article/10.1... 2. ourworldindata.org/causes-of-de... 3. www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol3...
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 22/05/2026
Ok, I'd like to on the record saying: "Everything in mortality is a tempo effect", "Excess deaths are an artifact of displaced deaths". -JS
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 22/05/2026
This is so cool. This atlas has Lexis plots on how various things have changed over time in different age groups – mortality rates, fertility rates, number of parents and siblings. And you can reach out to Jonas to add your own plots too. I'd like to see Lexis plots for absolutely everything.
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 21/05/2026
Fertility stats are conventionally denominated in births per *woman* - as if men have no agency. @cdudel.bsky.social & @demomapper.bsky.social hold men responsible by calculating trends in male fertility by age. Check out their male fertility collection on demoscapes: demoscapes.org/collections/...
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) @mpidr.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
🎉Congrats! Isabella Marinetti successfully defended her doctoral thesis, “Effects of short-term events on mortality in Europe.“ University of Groningen | Rijksuniversiteit Groningen www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_events_61…
A group of people dressed in festive attire is standing on a red carpet in front of a colorful window.
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 19/05/2026
Speaking as a demographer, the individualization of aggregate relationships is both impossible to resist in public discourse and an ongoing massive misrepresentation of research. It's not well known at all, how badly individual behavior is predicted using statistical regularities.
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 15/05/2026
Excellent move.
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 12/05/2026
New from me: "Pronatalism isn't sending their best." In which I cast considered doubt on the precious bodily fluids fecundity theory of fertility decline.
familyinequality.wordpress.com
Pronatalism is not sending their best
Birth rates are falling, but it’s not because of falling sperm counts and toxic soup.
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Dr Mary @maryabedalahad.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
We are recruiting for a PhD student who will be studying jointly between Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and University of St Andrews, More information are attached. @phrg-standrews.bsky.social @cpc-cg.bsky.social @bspsuk.bsky.social
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 05/05/2026
I was just asked about reproducibility issues in demography and healthy life expectancy came to mind.
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The R Foundation @r-foundation.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Today marks 50 years since John Chambers and Rick Becker presented a new project to colleagues at Bell Labs - an interactive environment that became the S language. For more details, see the #RStats blog entry "S at 50": blog.r-project.org/2026/05/05/s...
blog.r-project.org
S at 50 - The R Blog
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Aliakbar Akbaritabar @akbaritabar.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Adding this directly to the slides for this week's lecture of the course on Introduction to demographic methods. Thanks for creating great resource and sharing @jschoeley.com et al.
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 05/05/2026
What is the main reason for premature male mortality in Mexico? @ikashnitsky.phd and Aburto answered this question in 2019 for every Mexican state, every year since 1990 and all ages from 15 to 50. Their rich results are available on demoscapes. demoscapes.org/collections/...
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Jitka Slabá @sljitka.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
🥳New article out! Exploring the full spectrum of reproductive experiences doi.org/10.20377/jfr... Using Czech health register data, we analyse reproductive trajectories of women born 1976–1991, including live births, miscarriages, induced abortions, stillbirths, and infertility treatment (ART).
lnkd.in
LinkedIn
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 30/04/2026
I don't understand this comment... On an unrelated note, have you seen this cartogram below? Give it some days and you *really* start to see.
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Angela Carollo @angelacar.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
This is a fantastic project, and I am so honored to have contributed with the two dimensional hazard surfaces from my paper on transitions from cohabitation to marriage in Germany demoscapes.org/collections/... More 2D hazards to come - stay tuned
demoscapes.org
Carollo et al. 2025
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 30/04/2026
@angelacar.bsky.social et al. show a nice age effect, where men start to marry in larger numbers right around hitting age 30. This age threshold is quite stable, no matter how old men were, when they moved in with their partner. Explore in greater detail at demoscapes.org/collections/...
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 30/04/2026
www.ratemygithub.com/u/jschoeley So LLMs are great at roasting. I would be somewhat upset if a human made these observations and told me - They are all true, of course - But I'm not upset at all being analyzed like that by a machine. This must be why we all got so comfy being intimately surveilled.
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Demography - the flagship journal of PAA @readdemography.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
“Estimates of Under-Five Mortality From a Mobile Phone Survey”: This study by Julio Romero-Prieto et al. represents “one of the first attempts to collect survival data via mobile phones and to randomize different survey instruments.” @lshtm.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research (VYPR) @vypr.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
💡New Research Article from Hal Caswell just out! He shows how delayed reproduction has unexpected effects on population growth and structure #demography @demographyvienna.bsky.social austriaca.at?arp=0x004183...
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 29/04/2026
How many siblings does a recently born child in China likely have? @demography.bsky.social etal have estimated global kinship by age since 1950 and can answer the question (and a million others). Check out their results as interactive heatmaps on demoscapes.org. demoscapes.org/collections/...
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 29/04/2026
demoscapes.org is a visual atlas of demographic surfaces hosted at @mpidr.bsky.social. It is also my passion project growing out of my 2016 human mortality database explorer. Did you publish something containing Lexis surfaces? Consider reaching out and having your work featured on the site.
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Leah Abrams @leahrabrams.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Check out @jschoeley.com's very cool project: Demoscapes! It now features interactive Lexis surfaces based on our recent PNAS paper tracking cohort trends in major causes of death in the US. It's (to us data lovers) so fun! demoscapes.org/collections/...
demoscapes.org
Abrams et al. 2026
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 23/04/2026
Das sind mal geile Beutel.
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Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) @demographyvienna.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Wir sind bereit für die Lange Nacht der Forschung morgen! 🥳 Besucht uns an der @oeaw.bsky.social und holt euch eine Tasche und andere Goodies! 👇
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 20/04/2026
That must be a maximum entropy estimator. If one has no data or relevant prior information Laplaces principle of indifference leads to, "meh, prolly 50/50". Good that we're kept informed on the latest whale statistics.
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 20/04/2026
There's a whale stranded on the German Baltic coast and the intensity of news reporting matches the crises of past years. The live news ticker borders on sarcasm.
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Ilya Kashnitsky @ikashnitsky.phd · 19/04/2026
💡 Changes life expectancy follow changes in total death counts @araksha.bsky.social ✨ 📝 doi.org/10.31219/osf... 🔗 #rstats code: github.com/ikashnitsky/... 🧙‍♂️ no ai jumpstarter this time, I worked off @jschoeley.com's code, all here github.com/ikashnitsky/... DAY 16 -- causation 💫 #30DayChartChallenge
Scatter plot with a fitted regression line illustrating the near-perfect negative linear relationship between year-on-year relative changes in life expectancy and year-on-year relative changes in total death counts for Italian males, covering the period 1950 to 2023.

The horizontal axis is labeled "Δ log D" (change in log total deaths), ranging from approximately −0.15 to beyond 0.15. The vertical axis is labeled "Δ log e₀" (change in log life expectancy at birth), ranging from below 0.00 to above 0.02. Reference lines cross at the origin (0.0, 0.00).

Dark teal circular data points are tightly clustered along a descending pink regression line, confirming a strong inverse correlation: years with rising death counts correspond to falling life expectancy, and vice versa. The majority of points fall near the origin, reflecting small year-on-year fluctuations. Two notable outliers appear in the upper-left quadrant (large life expectancy gain, large death count drop). One prominent outlier is labeled "2020" in pink, located far to the lower right, representing a large spike in deaths and a sharp drop in life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic. A second unlabeled point sits near it, slightly above and to the left.

The title reads: "A near-perfect linear link between changes in life expectancy and total death counts." The subtitle reads: "Year-on-year relative changes in life expectancy VS year-on-year relative changes in total death counts, Italy, males, 1950–2023." The data source is credited to UN World Population Prospects 2024 (wpp2024 R package), with attribution to Ilya Kashnitsky @ikashnitsky.phd, part of the #30DayChartChallenge 2026, Day 16, theme: causation.
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Ilya Kashnitsky @ikashnitsky.phd · 13/04/2026
🎨 {linuxcolors} a small #rstats package with the identity colors of the most popular #Linux distros 🐧 💎 #ggplot2 ready with scale_{color/fill}_linux() functions 🔗: github.com/ikashnitsky/... 📦 DAY 13 -- ecosystems 🌍 #30DayChartChallenge ✨ #FOSS world is a unique human #ecosystem
Illustration-style painting on a white background featuring a central hexagonal frame surrounded by colorful paint splashes and drips, displaying numerous Linux distribution logos arranged across the composition.

At the center of the hexagon, a group of five painted penguins — three adults and two smaller ones — represent the Linux mascot (Tux), rendered in a realistic watercolor style in black, white, and yellow. Below the penguins, bold black text reads **LinuxColors**.

Surrounding the central frame, the following Linux distribution logos are visible, each rendered in a painterly, dripping style:

- **Fedora** — blue circular logo, upper center-left
- **Arch Linux** — cyan/teal upward triangle with "tm" mark, upper center
- **EndeavourOS** — purple and red triangle with text "ENDEAVOUROS", upper center
- **openSUSE** — green chameleon logo with text "openSUSE", upper right
- **Void Linux** — dark green circular logo with text "VOID", center-left
- **Pop!\_OS** — yellow circular logo with "P!" symbol, lower center-left
- **Linux Mint** — green "lm" stylized logo, lower center
- **Ubuntu** — orange circular logo with three dots, lower right
- **Kali Linux** — grey dragon/kite shape, left side
- **Zorin OS** — blue circular "Z" logo, lower left
- **Artix Linux** — blue circular "A" logo, bottom left
- **Nix / NixOS** — blue snowflake-style logo, upper left

Additional unidentified logos appear in dark navy (an "X" triangle, lower center) and teal/green shapes on the right side. Paint splatters in red, yellow, blue, green, and purple are scattered throughout.
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Philipp Golka @pgolka.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
We are hiring a tenure track (!) senior researcher in political economy! This is obviously a great job (permanent without teaching obligation) and I hope you all apply. However, I would like to take a moment to share just how significant this is in the German academic context ⬇️
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 10/03/2026
"Low birth rates are simply not a problem," and other profoundly important observations from @lesja.bsky.social, to redirect the left away from the myth of progressive pronatalism.
spectrejournal.com
Non-natalism – Spectre Journal A case for being against pronatalism
Leslie Root shows how misguided it is for the left to accept pro-natalist positions. Worry about declining birth rates is based on a misinterpretation of the Total Fertility Rate, and minor social pol...
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 10/03/2026
Let's return to hand written letters to the editor as a publication hurdle.
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
1/ Has life expectancy fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic? In a new pre-print, we find that 31 of 34 high-income countries had still not returned to their expected life expectancy trajectories five years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6... #demography
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