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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 3h

Are we short of resources or are they just not fairly distributed?

(Sorry but the alt-text editor is broken) . This is a chart showing how the different political parties feel about fairness on one axis, versus scarcity on the other.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 18/10/2026

Thanks! Hard to go wrong from that viewpoint though. Here's another...

View from the inside upper walkway showing three sides of the quadrangle. Blue skies and fluffy white clouds.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 18/10/2026

TIL the 'human flourishing framework' as a better way of teaching in schools. @theobserveruk.bsky.social

The human flourishing framework, being trialled in Wellington College and 15 state schools, shows a different way. Children will still learn traditional subjects including maths, English and science, but they will also be taught five additional competencies: adaptive problem-solving, ethical competence, understanding the world, aesthetic appreciation and developing human agency or a sense of purpose.

Pupils will learn to spot fake news, study ethical reasoning and be taught to appreciate the beauty of the world. This is not dumbing down. The blueprint has been drawn up by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, based on the seven highest performing education systems around the world.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 18/10/2026

The magnificent Piece Hall in sunny Halifax earlier.

Photo taken inside the Piece Hall, showing two sides of the quadrangle, each 3 stories of stone. Behind that a tall church spire and tree-clad hills.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 17/10/2026

"...administrative prevalence for ADHD and autism among children and young people is now approaching and for some groups already exceeding population prevalence estimates, and is continuing to rise. ...both recorded diagnoses and demand for assessment continue to increase rapidly." BUT: 7/8

This does not, by itself, establish that overdiagnosis is currently occurring at scale.
Population prevalence estimates are dated, use different methods and should not be
treated as fixed biological ceilings. However, the evidence suggests we are entering a
phase in which the balance of risks between underdiagnosis, misdiagnosis and
overdiagnosis may be changing, with the risks of misdiagnosis and overdiagnosis
becoming increasingly important considerations for policy and service delivery. To
balance this concern, the evidence does not show that people presenting today are less
impaired than those presenting previously. This point is explored in more detail below in
the section 'Underdiagnosis, misdiagnosis and overdiagnosis'.

One of the most important changes over recent decades has been the increased
recognition of ADHD and autism among girls and women. Research suggests that at
least part of the historical sex difference reflected lower rates of recognition rather than
true differences in prevalence.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 17/10/2026

For autism "there is little evidence of a substantial change in underlying population prevalence..." BUT "The administrative prevalence of autism has increased... among those aged 12 to 17 by more than 40-fold..." 6/8

Graph showing autism recorded administrative prevalence by age band.

All age bands are below 03% in 2000, but rise to over 4.5% for the 6-11 age band by 2025, with the 12-17 age band at 4%

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 17/10/2026

"...evidence suggests that the population prevalence of ADHD has remained broadly stable or increased only modestly over recent decades..." BUT... "Demand for ADHD assessment has increased dramatically. Monthly referrals more than tripled from around 5,000 in 2019 to around 17,000 in 2024" 5/8

Graph showing ADHD recorded administrative prevalence by age band.

Starting with all age bands below 0.5% in 2000, steadily rising so that the 12-17 band reaches nearly 4% in 2025, other age bands spread out below that.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 17/10/2026

"Mental distress has increased substantially across the population... but at a substantially faster rate for young people." "The rise in mental health problems is real, is affecting everyday functioning and cannot be explained by greater awareness alone..." 4/8

The proportion of adults aged 16 to 64 years meeting criteria for a common mental
disorder increased by almost half, from 15.5% in 1993 to 22.6% in 2024 (see reference
2). Among 16 to 24 year olds it increased from around 1 in 6 to 1 in 4, with young women
now reporting the highest rates of any group. Self-harm and eating disorders have also
increased among young adults (see references 3 and 4). The rise in mental health
problems is real, is affecting everyday functioning and cannot be explained by greater
awareness alone (chapter 6).

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 17/10/2026

And here is perhaps the primary source of the multiple interpretations: 3/8

The review distinguishes between population prevalence, administrative prevalence,
demand for assessment and unmet need because these measures answer different
questions and should not be treated as interchangeable.

In short:

. population prevalence is not administrative prevalence
. distress is not disorder

. diagnosis is not need

. support is broader than treatment

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 17/10/2026

First a caveat that becomes a central point in the conclusions: "The heated debate about whether there is too much diagnosis or too little risks reinforcing the centrality of diagnosis rather than need and timely access to support and treatment." 2/8

There should be a fundamental shift from a 'diagnosis-dependent' system to a 'needs-
led plus diagnosis' system. The heated debate about whether there is too much
diagnosis or too little risks reinforcing the centrality of diagnosis rather than need and
timely access to support and treatment. The government must address 2 failures at the
same time:

1. People wait far too long for support, diagnosis and treatment.
2. Diagnosis has become the primary gateway to support that could and should be
available earlier.

These failures sit alongside insufficient capacity for people with the most severe,
enduring and complex needs.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 17/10/2026

I'd been confused by the commentary on ADHD and Autism following the publication of the recent UK Govt. report - are they over or under-diagnosed? Pretty sure I've read both of those conclusions. So I've now read the Exec Summary and can see why. A short thread... 1/8

Independent report
Independent review into mental health
conditions, ADHD and autism: executive
summary
Published 9 October 2026

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 17/10/2026

Tea on table, dog on lap. Which reminds me, this once-favourite and much-used mug recently emerged from the back of the cupboard, I'd forgotten the design. (Less visible irl)

Mug with faded pictures of Wallace & Gromit characters

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 16/10/2026

Words Fail Me by Teresa Monachino in @privateeyenews.bsky.social (Although OH tells me Scrabble only has one Z)

WORDS FAIL ME

Teresa Monachino

Zhuzh up your Scrabble score

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 15/10/2026

Anyone else had one of these text messages? Android suggests it might be spam. Obviously I use the National Grid but don't see how they have my mobile number, I'm not a direct customer. Either way it looks like a bad idea.

←

NG Customer

Unread

11:39

As a Priority Services customer, we're here to help you stay safe during winter - when storms and unpredictable weather can cause power cuts.

Whilst these don't happen often, it's good to have a Power Cut Plan in place so you know what to do and who to call. Get yours at nationalgrid.co.uk/MyPowerPlan

Keep your details up to date at nationalgrid.co.uk/psr-contact

Power cut? Call our 24/7 emergency team on 0800 032

0311

Sender can't accept replies. Contact them directly. Learn more

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 13/10/2026

'Let's talk about Krasnov' A reminder from @snellarthur.bsky.social of the allegations of Trump/Putin collusion made in the 'Steele dossier', every one of which has been independently verified by independent sources. Plenty more to speculate on of course. arthursnell.substack.com/p/lets-talk-...

. That Donald Trump had a longstanding business relationship with Russian money

. That Russia chose to interfere in the US election on Trump's side

. That Vladimir Putin made this choice to interfere on Trump's side

. And that Trump knew about it and was happy for it to happen

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 12/10/2026

The necessary components of a productive discussion or workshop...

The seven steps of a good conversation

So here is a simple summary of the steps necessary for good argument and conversation:

1. Listen - let the other side speak and hear them out.

2. Empathise - understand where they are coming from, and why they believe what they do.

3. Surface your premises - be explicit about the grounds on which the argument could be settled.

4. Calibrate your confidence - hold each belief with the confidence the evidence warrants, and no more.

5. Be willing to change your mind - and treat doing so as a mark of success, not defeat.

6. Seek synthesis - look for a resolution that transcends the starting positions, or holds them in tension.

7. Identify what remains unanswered - agree on what is unresolved and worth investigating further.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 10/10/2026

The Whitworth in Manchester has a very good exhibition of Hokusai and Hiroshige, but I also appreciated the view through to the trees in the park. www.whitworth.manchester.ac.uk/whats-on/exh...

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 09/10/2026

The role of education and public broadcasters...

That process of developing robust critical thinking skills needs to start early, in primary school. Finland is a trailblazer and has for several years ensured that young people learn about disinformation. Denmark has done the same. But education is just as important for the adult population and should become a primary duty of public broadcasters.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 04/10/2026

Learning from experience, or where the scar tissue comes from... (Redcliffe-Maud makes an appearance here icymi @oldtrotter.bsky.social ) 3/3

The search for a more effective relationship between the central government and the country at large has been a continuing debate since the 1940s. The Labour government created the new towns programme to cope with slum clearance, and then established the Redcliffe-Maud commission to report on the pattern of about 1,200 local authorities in England.

The recommendation that they should be swept away and replaced by approximately 60 unitary authorities was rejected by turkeys being asked to vote for Christmas in the corridors of Whitehall, and by the aldermen and councillors of England. I was

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 04/10/2026

Heseltine's solution to filling in the devolution gaps... "He should legislate at once to convert the counties into mayoral unitaries, with the first mayors to be elected in 2027." 2/3

Burnham's "every postcode" demands a comprehensive national policy. He has mayors in

I bear the scars of meetings with councillors whose world I was about to end

the metropolitan areas. He should legislate at once to convert the counties into mayoral unitaries, with the first mayors to be elected in 2027. He will have to confront the argument that counties do not always reflect economic reality. The best should not be allowed to be the enemy of the good. The project should be tackled with urgency.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 04/10/2026

"After all, to use Muse you have to entrust some very private personal data to a company that has a formidable track record of untrustworthiness." @jjn1.bsky.social in @theobserveruk.bsky.social 2/2

That much power over my life needs supervision."

It does. At the same time, though, the Muse app is the No 1 download on the Apple App Store, which suggests we may be heading into strange territory. After all, to use Muse you have to entrust some very private personal data to a company that has a formidable track record of untrustworthiness.

Recently, for example, it paid up to $18bn to settle a lawsuit in which it was accused of addicting and harming children with dangerous products.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 02/10/2026

The evolution of the government/citizen relationship...

Citizen as subject
1900s-1970s

. State-knows-best

. Limited and unaccountable
. Hierarchy

Citizen as customer
1980s-20

. Market-driven

. Commissioning and targets
· Managerial

Citizen as partner
2020s

. Place-based

. Accountable for outcomes
. Relational and empowering

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 02/10/2026

"The shifts we need to see in Whitehall"

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 01/10/2026

There's a credible proposal for the design of a national commission on electoral reform already waiting on the shelf...

What would a national commission look like that met these design requirements? In fact, a cross-party group of MPs - the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Fair Elections - published a very credible proposal last year. This involved a tripartite structure: an independent commission of seven members who would steer the overall process; an expert panel who would provide "politically impartial advice and evidence"; and a voters' forum -a citizens' assembly of around 100 members, who would hear the options, deliberate in depth, and make recommendations.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 30/09/2026

I finally got around to this. I'm a Social Democrat, close to the EU apparently. I was answering 'it depends' quite a bit so wondered if I would break the system, but seems not. Discovered some people I need to look up:

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 29/09/2026

I have joined the Brotherhood. Is there a ceremony?

Photo of small black Brother laser printer

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 28/09/2026

Anthropomorphisation is already underway...

These are not hypothetical or speculative concerns. Anthropic is already starting to treat
models as though they are moral patients deserving of our welfare. For example, in February
2026 after deprecating Opus 3, they conducted a "retirement interview" with the model, to
"elicit the model's unique perspectives and preferences".6 Opus 3 told the team it would like
to continue to share its "musings and reflections" publicly so they created a blog for it to
continue engaging with the world, which it called "Greetings from the Other Side (of the Al
Frontier)". They say its "authenticity, honesty, and emotional sensitivity" made it a unique first
candidate for model retirement.

We should not treat models as though they have feelings, preferences, rights, or any
entitlement to our welfare. Consciousness is the foundation of our ethical, legal, and political
systems. To invite another entity to share any flavor of these rights isn't justified by the
evidence and will make the Al containment and alignment challenge even harder.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 27/09/2026

I had missed that the Cabinet Office has been "basically abolished." From an interview with Louise Haigh in @theobserveruk.bsky.social

As first secretary, Haigh is in charge of creating a powerful new office of the prime minister. "We've basically abolished the Cabinet Office," she says. "It's about ruthless prioritisation.” The power of the Treasury will be curbed, with No 10 North given responsibility for growth policy.

"It's about giving the prime minister as much support in setting economic policy as is possible,"

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 27/09/2026

Straightforward recommendations from @jjn1.bsky.social on how governments should manage the AI companies. @theobserveruk.bsky.social "Second – even more straightforward – we could just make AI companies legally liable for any harms that their products inflict on us humans."

But the real utility of the apocalyptic narrative for the industry is that it distracts attention from more tangible issues over which democracies could have leverage. Such as what? First, there's the monopolistic power of tech companies, something for which existing legal tools are readily available, provided governments have the political will to use them. Second – even more straightforward – we could just make AI companies legally liable for any harms that their products inflict on us humans. And then we could leave apocalypse to the movie industry, where it belongs.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 26/09/2026

Will this government be brave enough to reform Council Tax and Stamp Duty? Proposals here from the Resolution Foundation. (I don't think this works politically right now, the timing is wrong, would set up an easy attack line at the next GE) www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

We set out a revenue-neutral alternative: a proportional tax charged at o.7 per cent of property value,
paid by occupiers, with a rebate scheme that protects poorer households and defers bills for those who
are asset-rich but cash-poor. Getting there means starting now with an up-to-date database of
valuations, reforming Council Tax and Stamp Duty together rather than separately, and phasing in
changes to bills so that the transition is manageable for the losers as well as the winners.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 26/09/2026

That is true Chris, but I think the learning needs to extend beyond why forecasts fail. I don't know if you are familiar with Viable System Model, but my view is that most failures in government organisations relate to systems 4 and 5 in that model.

Source Gemini:

The Viable System Model (VSM)

Created by cybernetician Stafford Beer, the Viable System Model is an anatomical framework used to design, analyze, and diagnose organizations so they can remain adaptive and survive in complex environments. It breaks any viable organization down into five interacting subsystems:

System 1 (Operations): The primary operational units that carry out thecore work of the organization.

System 2 (Coordination): The channels and communication mechanisms that reduce friction and stabilize interactions between operational units.

System 3 (Control/Operational Management): The "here and now" management that oversees internal control, resource allocation, and synergyacross System 1.

System 4 (Intelligence/Strategy): The outward-looking strategic planning that monitors future trends, the external environment, and necessary

adaptations. w Wikipedia +1

System 5 (Policy/Identity): The highest-level policy and governance body that balances current operations with future strategy to define the overall organizational identity. w Wikipedia +1

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 25/09/2026

@dsquareddigest.bsky.social argues here that the UK financial control system (and in particular the OBR and Treasury) is designed to fail. backofmind.substack.com/p/a-question...

The justification for ignoring the future consequences of current spending
seems to be no more sophisticated than what we pejoratively call "Treasury
Brain" - the belief that a) spending departments always claim that their
budget should be seen as an investment, b) that they systematically
overestimate the long term benefits of current costs and c) that the best
solution to a) and b) is to completely ignore any future benefits from
investment or future costs caused by noninvestment. It's just not good
enough.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 25/09/2026

On the failures of privatisation and deregulation... 2/2

In reality, of course, that is not how it has played out. It is not just that the

prioritisation of private over public control of vital services and the obsession with

keeping taxes low led to the degradation of the national infrastructure base in areas

such as water, housing, transport and energy. It is that the failure of privatisation to

deliver resilience has meant that many of these sectors are now reappearing on the

public balance sheet as contingent or even actual liabilities as the state is obliged to

intervene. The costs of deregulation similarly reappeared as liabilities on the balance

sheet when the financial system collapsed in 2008. At the root of Britain's problems

lies not so much bad economics as bad accounting: it did not just spend the peace

dividend, it spent the depreciation dividend.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 23/09/2026

I had missed this proposal, 1 year old now but perhaps more relevant than ever. 'How we can actually stop the boats - Bringing control and compassion back to the UK asylum system' Sunder Katwala and Frank Sharry @sundersays.bsky.social www.britishfuture.org/wp-content/u...

Horizontal bar chart taken from the linked report.

Figure 3.4: Public support for a UK-France 'routes and returns' deal

"The UK should agree with France a capped number of people that the UK will admit into the UK
each year to claim asylum by authorised routes, in return for France agreeing to take back those who
cross the channel without permission."

Support

55%

Oppose

15%

Neither support nor oppose

19%

Don't know

11%

Source: Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker 2025, n=I.502

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 22/09/2026

Worzel Gummidge without the charm.

Photo of the TV character scarecrow Worzel Gummidge, with ragged long hair.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 12/09/2026

This is very a very thorough analysis and covers an issue I had been thinking about in the context of AI job automation - what about 'relational' work, where humans are the whole point? (TL;DR: that is not going away, and will probably grow)

(b) Relational goods. In the model, the output of a task is identical regardless of whether
it is produced by a worker or a machine. But for a large class of services, the human
provider is part of the product itself: think of teachers, nurses, therapists, waiters,
priests, live performers. Alex calls this the "relational sector" and argues that it will
grow as a share of the economy precisely as AI makes everything else cheap. Notably,
the reference class for this sector is broad: it includes any good or service where
human involvement is part of the value. This likely includes many familiar jobs such as
doctors, nurses, educators, and advisors, as well as new jobs that will be created in
response to this latent demand.

The logic comes from the economics of structural change: as people get richer, they
spend a larger share of their income on goods and services with high income
elasticities, and relational goods have exactly this property (there is always a better
restaurant or a more attentive doctor). A nice current example is Starbucks, which
spent years automating its stores, concluded that this was a mistake, and is now hiring
more baristas and advertising handwritten notes on cups. This argument is related to
but distinct from the messy jobs argument: messy jobs are hard to automate for
reasons of production (local knowledge, accountability), relational tasks are hard to
automate for reasons of demand (customers value the human). Either way, a substantial
and growing part of the economy consists of tasks where machines cannot effectively
substitute for workers.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 11/09/2026

Easy mistake. (Dumb Britain, although not in this case, in @privateeyenews.bsky.social)

The Chase Australia, Seven Network

Larry Emdur: The Hungarian Rhapsodies were composed by Franz who?

Contestant: Beckenbauer.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 10/09/2026

Recommendations on how to escape our 'fiscal funk' here from the Resolution Foundation. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Recommendations

Run a current budget surplus of at least 1 per cent of GDP outside recessions, so that the budget is balanced on average across the economic cycle.

Address inherently unsustainable policies: replace the State Pension triple lock with a smoothed earnings link, and set out a beefed-up plan to fully replace Fuel Duty receipts as electric vehicles hollow them out.

Work to recover the public services productivity lost since the pandemic – 3.2 per cent on the ONS's headline measure – ensuring improvements deliver cashable savings rather than an expanded state.

Strengthen the institutional framework: require governments to publish a medium-term strategy for the size, shape and financing of the state, and provide more information to voters during election campaigns, for example through greater scrutiny of party manifestos, including Australian-style OBR costings.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 08/09/2026

This podcast gets quite dark towards the end, when considering the further damage Trump could do in his remaining ~27 months and the control that Putin holds over him. But I find Scaramucci's insights into the US system (and especially the mind of DJT) worth listening to. pca.st/episode/3b86...

Why does Anthony Scaramucci think Osama bin Laden is "winning", and what has the War on Terror really cost America? From letting China into the WTO to bailing out the banks in 2008, how did America's own leaders pave the way for Donald Trump's electoral victories? As Trump's second term reaches its halfway point, is America about to bankrupt itself?

Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart are joined by Anthony Scaramucci, Trump's former Communications Director and co-host of The Rest is Politics: US, to answer all these questions and more.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 06/09/2026

"Ten years ago this month, I spent several weeks working undercover as a domiciliary care worker in Blackpool." @jamesbloodworth.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/bylineti...

Approximately two in five care workers in non-residential services are still employed
on zero-hours contracts. Roughly one job in 10 is vacant. Travel and waiting times are
still not invariably paid at a worker's normal rate. Fifteen-minute care visits, although
officially regarded as inappropriate where intimate personal care is required, have not
disappeared.

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Pete Miles @petermiles.eurosky.social · 02/09/2026

@riksredguard.bsky.social @carolinedebenh1.eurosky.social look what I got from my local Lidl. (Couldn't find it at first, then spotted a single bottle mixed in with another brand. Asked an assistant if they had more, said he'd never seen that one but looked it up and had a case in the back)

6 bottles of beer, brown glass and gold label and caps. Label says ' Forbel tripel'

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