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Paul Tree

@paultree10.bsky.social
916 followers 379 following 7.2K posts

it’s still a pun on "paltry” do you get it

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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 11h
Man if this doesn’t summarize the poison that’s been pumped into the American body politic in the past decade:
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 14h
Still think it’s an underdiscussed asymmetry that this — dumb, meaningless Poasting, not any actual action — is what the right wants. None of them care that Trump hasn’t actually ushered in The Storm or whatever even a decade later.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 14h
Pretty impressive that he manages to make literally and figuratively Byzantine religious controversies from 1,200 years ago readable
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 17h
just imagining how chill everyone would be if a democratic president said that anyone who didn’t use the president’s preferred phraseology for something was all-caps THE ENEMY
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Solid. Funniest part is how clearly everyone was always floored by Hopkins’ talent even when he was a total unknown, but he wasn’t confident and didn’t understand why people kept casting him.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
What if Marist has both the Seltzer 2020 and Seltzer 2024 polls this cycle. Which is which, well, we’ll find out I guess!
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
That Marist GCB number is worse — in absolute numbers, not just relative — than the aggregate New York congressional vote in 2024. That’s like urgent hospitalization levels of anemia.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The GCB is much more concerning than the governor number for this reason
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I wonder if there’s some effects of the pretty massive increase in most big city’s minimum wages; if you’re 17 you could either make $40 for an evening of babysitting or like $100 working a four hour shift at the pizza place. Wasn’t nearly that discrepancy twenty years ago.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Anecdotally it seems like there’s been a fairly big cultural shift of parents giving their teens money/an allowance, such that picking up $30 for a couple hours of babysitting isn’t really worth it
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Genuinely bizarre to have people acting like Harry Potter fanfiction is something new in the year 2026
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Collins did not lead in a single public poll conducted after late June in 2020
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Chipockalips Now! @fragboner.bsky.social · 06/10/2026



right about now, the funk soul brother






check it out now, the funk soul brother






right about now, the funk soul brother






check it out now, the funk soul brother
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
He was pretty open about not caring when Covid was mostly killing people in big cities in spring 2020
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
“They” being very broadly defined bsky.app/profile/bgru...
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The way they talk about us is outrageous
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28 Days Lehner 🪦 @danlehner.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
They could always just say something like “we can’t answer a hypothetical like that” or “it depends on the nominee” or whatever. They don’t need to fully lie, just obfuscate.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Arsonly
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Nagi Viperine @themetalviper.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Also if the polling is accurate moderate Democrats are dramatically overperforming progressive Democrats, at least at the senate level
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Emile Durkheim was on to something
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
If the economy was so great in Trump’s first term why did he not bring back any of his economic people from the first term.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
No no no yes yes yes no!
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Oh no it arrived and is more beautiful than I possibly could have imagined
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The way they talk about us is outrageous
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Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Sir Jacob William Rees-Mogging.
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the babahuck @tylerhuckabee.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
from 2001. no one’s doing product testimonials like this anymore. t.co/PEswCtbEZz
Toyota's unease at being associated with the Taliban and Al Qaeda is evident. In its September statement, the company said,
'Toyota does not have a sales or distribution channel in Afghanistan, and we do not export vehicles to that country."
Somewhat less laconic was Wade Hoyt, Toyota's spokesman in New York, who put the best corporate spin on the situation this week.
"It is not our proudest product placement," he said. "But it shows that the Taliban are looking for the same qualities as any truck buyer: durability and reliability."
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
As a Seattle sports fan but also USC alum:
static.klipy.com
Larry David's Indecisive 'I Don't Know' Expression
ALT: Larry David's Indecisive 'I Don't Know' Expression
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Can’t believe this, from last June, is plausible (if you believe current polling):
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The American electorate:
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Idk about stunning, he looks like that and his name is Braiden, what did they expect
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
What has BlueSky predicted more, global economic collapses or trump deaths.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
(And by realignment I mean simultaneously a bunch of blue states have shifted right while a bunch of red states have shifted left)
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
No worries Basically at least one of these things must be true: 1) red state polling is way off and we’re looking at a good-but-not great election night; 2) blue state polling is off and we’re looking at a spectacular election night; 3) a wildly unprecedented realignment has happened very suddenly
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Yeah, I mean that’s certainly possible but the thing is I’m skeptical that there’s a bespoke cause materially holding a dozen different major blue state democrats back, but not red state democrats. Not impossible, but what a coincidence that would be
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
This is at least the second time the president has talked about how he doesn’t know how to spell a four letter word
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Minnesota/Iowa is the clearest example here. Neighboring states, demographically comparable (ish), same open seat dynamic, no major scandals for any candidate, and oh yeah 18 points different in 2024. But Flanagan and Turek are essentially identical in polling averages. Come on. Impossible.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
And I’m not. You could certainly have a few individual candidate outliers — possibly including MGP and/or Kotek — but the pattern of amazing polling for democrats in red areas and mediocre polling in blue and some purple areas is a national one and is pretty ideologically agnostic.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
That is not consistent with AES or Flanagan’s (relatively…?) bad polling. Both are very progressive non-incumbents.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I’m saying that if there is a blue wave to the extent that Trump +15 states like Iowa and Texas are not just in play but lean D — like some polling suggests — then there is something very, very weird going on with some of the purple/blue state polling.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
There hasn’t been a ton of polling in Minnesota and even less high quality nonpartisan polling but still, the averages have Flanagan up only 2 points. That is not meaningfully higher than Turek’s polling, and I’m sorry but it is not possible that Dems could lose Minnesota and win Iowa.
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Coach Finstock @coachfinstock.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
MY MAN. Knicks fans are allowed to hate him for obvious reasons but he is our French Woke Alien and I love this dude. Doesn't give a fuck about upsetting the league. Spoke out on ICE and the murders in Minnesota when he wasn't 'supposed' to.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Sorry for committing the crime of public data skepticism
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Sure but other things have been bad before
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Yeah but even that was a) like 1.5% iirc and b) more persuasion than turnout. One of the weird things about American politics is that turnout doesn’t change that much (regionally) in competitive elections. An R/D+30 senate race will have lower turnout than a R/D+2 state but not by that much.
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Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I mean that sounds perfectly reasonable but it’s never worked like that before
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Louis @louisevans.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Skipped the Nazis, huh.
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