Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 11hMan if this doesn’t summarize the poison that’s been pumped into the American body politic in the past decade: 13014
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 14hStill think it’s an underdiscussed asymmetry that this — dumb, meaningless Poasting, not any actual action — is what the right wants. None of them care that Trump hasn’t actually ushered in The Storm or whatever even a decade later. 030
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 14hPretty impressive that he manages to make literally and figuratively Byzantine religious controversies from 1,200 years ago readable 110
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 17hjust imagining how chill everyone would be if a democratic president said that anyone who didn’t use the president’s preferred phraseology for something was all-caps THE ENEMY 010
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Solid. Funniest part is how clearly everyone was always floored by Hopkins’ talent even when he was a total unknown, but he wasn’t confident and didn’t understand why people kept casting him. 000
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 07/10/2026What if Marist has both the Seltzer 2020 and Seltzer 2024 polls this cycle. Which is which, well, we’ll find out I guess! 010
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 07/10/2026That Marist GCB number is worse — in absolute numbers, not just relative — than the aggregate New York congressional vote in 2024. That’s like urgent hospitalization levels of anemia. 010
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 07/10/2026The GCB is much more concerning than the governor number for this reason 020
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026I wonder if there’s some effects of the pretty massive increase in most big city’s minimum wages; if you’re 17 you could either make $40 for an evening of babysitting or like $100 working a four hour shift at the pizza place. Wasn’t nearly that discrepancy twenty years ago. 2140
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Anecdotally it seems like there’s been a fairly big cultural shift of parents giving their teens money/an allowance, such that picking up $30 for a couple hours of babysitting isn’t really worth it 170
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Genuinely bizarre to have people acting like Harry Potter fanfiction is something new in the year 2026 1381
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Collins did not lead in a single public poll conducted after late June in 2020 030
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026He was pretty open about not caring when Covid was mostly killing people in big cities in spring 2020 020
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 06/10/2026“They” being very broadly defined bsky.app/profile/bgru... 010
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 05/10/2026They could always just say something like “we can’t answer a hypothetical like that” or “it depends on the nominee” or whatever. They don’t need to fully lie, just obfuscate. 040
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Also if the polling is accurate moderate Democrats are dramatically overperforming progressive Democrats, at least at the senate level 071
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 04/10/2026If the economy was so great in Trump’s first term why did he not bring back any of his economic people from the first term. 0321
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Oh no it arrived and is more beautiful than I possibly could have imagined 000
Reposted by Paul TreeJacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Sir Jacob William Rees-Mogging. 461061168
Reposted by Paul Treethe babahuck @tylerhuckabee.bsky.social · 03/10/2026from 2001. no one’s doing product testimonials like this anymore. t.co/PEswCtbEZz 362709433
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 04/10/2026As a Seattle sports fan but also USC alum:static.klipy.comLarry David's Indecisive 'I Don't Know' ExpressionALT: Larry David's Indecisive 'I Don't Know' Expression 000
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Can’t believe this, from last June, is plausible (if you believe current polling): 021
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Idk about stunning, he looks like that and his name is Braiden, what did they expect 020
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026What has BlueSky predicted more, global economic collapses or trump deaths. 070
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026(And by realignment I mean simultaneously a bunch of blue states have shifted right while a bunch of red states have shifted left) 000
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026No worries Basically at least one of these things must be true: 1) red state polling is way off and we’re looking at a good-but-not great election night; 2) blue state polling is off and we’re looking at a spectacular election night; 3) a wildly unprecedented realignment has happened very suddenly 100
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Yeah, I mean that’s certainly possible but the thing is I’m skeptical that there’s a bespoke cause materially holding a dozen different major blue state democrats back, but not red state democrats. Not impossible, but what a coincidence that would be 011
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026This is at least the second time the president has talked about how he doesn’t know how to spell a four letter word 020
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Minnesota/Iowa is the clearest example here. Neighboring states, demographically comparable (ish), same open seat dynamic, no major scandals for any candidate, and oh yeah 18 points different in 2024. But Flanagan and Turek are essentially identical in polling averages. Come on. Impossible. 020
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026And I’m not. You could certainly have a few individual candidate outliers — possibly including MGP and/or Kotek — but the pattern of amazing polling for democrats in red areas and mediocre polling in blue and some purple areas is a national one and is pretty ideologically agnostic. 100
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026That is not consistent with AES or Flanagan’s (relatively…?) bad polling. Both are very progressive non-incumbents. 100
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026I’m saying that if there is a blue wave to the extent that Trump +15 states like Iowa and Texas are not just in play but lean D — like some polling suggests — then there is something very, very weird going on with some of the purple/blue state polling. 220
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026There hasn’t been a ton of polling in Minnesota and even less high quality nonpartisan polling but still, the averages have Flanagan up only 2 points. That is not meaningfully higher than Turek’s polling, and I’m sorry but it is not possible that Dems could lose Minnesota and win Iowa. 241
Reposted by Paul TreeCoach Finstock @coachfinstock.bsky.social · 01/10/2026MY MAN. Knicks fans are allowed to hate him for obvious reasons but he is our French Woke Alien and I love this dude. Doesn't give a fuck about upsetting the league. Spoke out on ICE and the murders in Minnesota when he wasn't 'supposed' to. 1367848
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Sorry for committing the crime of public data skepticism 000
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Yeah but even that was a) like 1.5% iirc and b) more persuasion than turnout. One of the weird things about American politics is that turnout doesn’t change that much (regionally) in competitive elections. An R/D+30 senate race will have lower turnout than a R/D+2 state but not by that much. 030
Paul Tree @paultree10.bsky.social · 01/10/2026I mean that sounds perfectly reasonable but it’s never worked like that before 210