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Aureo de Paula

@paulaaureo.bsky.social
1.2K followers 745 following 31 posts

Professor of Economics at UCL, IFS. East London Carioca. Arsenal and Flamengo!

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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
If this seems interesting to you, check the paper(s)! LINK TO THE PAPER: arxiv.org/abs/2407.07988 LINK TO COMPANION NOTE: shorturl.at/T757g LINK TO NOTEBOOKLM PODCAST: shorturl.at/301Pz (9/9)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Using the UK MES for electronics, retail and restaurants, NPR delivers plausible estimates. We find NPR attributes much more of cross-firm TFP dispersion to *persistent* productivity (64% vs 43% in electronics, 77% vs 49% in retail, 52% vs 33% in restaurants). (8/9)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
And the data already exist. The UK Management and Expectations Survey, the US MOPS and Survey of Business Uncertainty, the Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, the China Employer–Employee Survey… We catalogue where the method is feasible today, and where small tweaks would make it so. (7/9)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Monte Carlo simulations (following ACF's design) show NPR is robust to optimisation errors in inputs. We also offer "EZ-NPR", building on Evdokimov and Zeleneev (2025), which withstands moderate measurement error in the elicited expectations. (6/9)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Three attractions: (i) be agnostic about firms choices and allow for diff expectation formation processes; (ii) nonlinear prod dyn; (iii) estimator runs on a single x-section and accounts for selection! Add-ons in a comp note with S Bond: see link below. (5/9)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Our idea: instead of inferring productivity from what firms *do*, use firms’ *stated beliefs*. If productivity is Markov, a firm's expectations about its own future output and inputs are informative about its current productivity. Expectations become the proxy! (4/9)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
The workhorse "proxy variable" methods (Olley–Pakes, Levinsohn–Petrin, Ackerberg–Caves–Frazer) invert a firm's investment or materials demand to back out productivity. That works only if input choices are strictly monotonic in productivity, which can be demanding in some settings. (3/9)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Production functions are behind a lot of things we care about: technical change, productivity dispersion, markups, policy evaluation. But estimating them is hard. Productivity is usually unobserved and correlated with input choices, so OLS is inconsistent. (2/9)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Agnes Norris Keiller, @johnvanreenen.bsky.social and I have recently issued a revision for our on "Production Function Estimation Using Subjective Expectations Data”! Here comes a short thread on what we do in the paper. @ucleconomics.bsky.social @poid-lse.bsky.social (1/9)
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Economics at Southampton @sotonecon.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Today, we were delighted to host @paulaaureo.bsky.social ( @ucl.ac.uk ). He presented joint work called “Production Function Estimation Using Subjective Expectations Data”. The talk presented a new method for estimating production functions with fewer assumptions. #Econometrics #econsky
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Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 17/11/2025
📢 #CallForPapers - 2nd Workshop on Frontiers in Measurement and Survey Methods Organised by: CEPR, University of Calabria, University of Naples Federico II & @yale.edu Deadline: 25 Jan 2026 More details: cepr.org/events/works... @giannolamichele.bsky.social @armiano.bsky.social
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
NEW: #IFSWorkingPaper: The rise of online dating and heterogamous marriages 📗 Read Yujung Hwang, Fangzhu Yang and @paulaaureo.bsky.social's new paper on how the diffusion of online dating platforms has shaped intermarriage patterns by race and education here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
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Journal of Public Economics @jpube.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Just published in @jpube.bsky.social: "Intergenerational mobility in socio-emotional skills" By Orazio P. Attanasio, @paulaaureo.bsky.social, & Alessandro Toppeta www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... #econsky #publiceconomics @ucleconomics.bsky.social @uclpolicylab.bsky.social ‬@sofi.su.se
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
If this seems interesting to you, check our paper or NotebookLM podcast below! www.sciencedirect.com/science/artic… notebooklm.google.com/notebook/6c46… (7/7)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
We do much more in the article! For example, we look at further measures of association and discuss our estimation protocol in detail – importantly, both skills and intergenerational regressions are estimated jointly. (6/7)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Interestingly, we also find that mother-child correlations are much higher than father-child! (This relationship remains even after robustness checks for alternative explanations such as different sample sizes.) (5/7)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
This allows us to measure skills at the same age for parents and children. While correlations are lower than those measured contemporaneously and between other economic variables in related studies, they are still sizeable and significant! (4/7)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Here, we focus on “internalising” (e.g., focussing drive aothers) skills using the 1970 UK British Cohort Study, which follows all born in the UK on a week in Apr/1970 linking their info w their mums as well as (eventual) kids! (3/7)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
‪The literature has registered association across several meaningful economic variables and outcomes across generations. Socio-emotional skills are also important! (2/7)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
This is a (very) short thread on a recent paper with the great Orazio Attanasio and Alessandro Toppeta on “Intergenerational Mobility in Socio-Emotional Skills” (forthcoming at ‪@jpube.bsky.social)! (1/7) @ucleconomics.bsky.social @uclpolicylab.bsky.social‬ @sofi.su.se ‪@clscohorts.bsky.social
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
📣 Check out my latest article with R Inafuku, T Halliday and Lester Lusher on air population, test scores ...and a volcano!
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UCL Policy Lab @uclpolicylab.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Join @ucleconomics.bsky.social this May for this year's annual Gorman Lecture and Conference 2025. Find out more about this year's programme and book your tickets ⬇️
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Jonas Hjort @hjortj.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
We at @ucleconomics.bsky.social have extended the application deadline to our MA degrees by a week (until May 8th)--all nationalities warmly welcome!
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
This year's Gorman Lectures at UCL will be given by one of my heroes, Ariel Pakes. I can't wait!
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Jessica Leight @leightjessica.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
It's been a while since I did a standard lit review thread, but here's one for #econsky #econtwitter about an important literature that's been growing recently: the effect of supply- and demand-side interventions on fertility in LMICs
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Alan Crawford @alcrawfs.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
We are recruiting an Econometrics Adviser. The role would suit someone with a recent PhD (or a masters and some experience), and an interest in empirical IO. This is a unique opportunity to work on high-profile cases and with great data! www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi...
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The Review of Economic Studies (REStud) @reveconstudies.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
Recently accepted to @reveconstudies.bsky.social, "Industrial Policy Implementation: Empirical Evidence from China’s Shipbuilding Industry" from Barwick, Kalouptsidi and Bin Zahur: www.restud.com/industrial-p...
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
We offer simulations and an application using data from the Current Population Survey. If this sounds interesting to you, make sure to check the article! (5/5) arxiv.org/abs/2501.10117
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
To employ conformal inference, we construct a conformity score function which accounts for the set-valued nature of the outcomes of interest. The procedure accommodates (irreducible) prediction uncertainty, modelling uncertainty due to partial identification and sampling uncertainty. (4/5)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
To do so we first characterise the shortest prediction interval (or set, more broadly!) in such cases. We then employ “conformal inference” to construct prediction sets with particular finite sample guarantees under censoring while maintaining consistency as the sample size grows. (3/5)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Interval data is pervasive. Surveys usually employ “bracketing” to avoid item nonresponse. Censoring is also present in many contexts. Here, we offer a prediction protocol for outcomes that are interval-valued! (2/5)
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
I have a new paper on “Prediction Sets and Conformal Inference with Censored Outcomes” with the great Weiguang Liu and Elie Tamer. Prediction Sets and Conformal… what? I know, I know! Here comes a (very) short thread on what we do in the paper. (1/5)
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Jakob Schneebacher @jschneebacher.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
Agnes Norris Keiller presented a great paper with @paulaaureo.bsky.social and @johnvanreenen.bsky.social on how we can use data on firms' turnover and employment expectations directly in production function estimation. www.nber.org/papers/w32725 2/
nber.org
Production Function Estimation Using Subjective Expectations Data
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 23/10/2024
NEW #IFSWorkingPaper: Robust inference for the Frisch labor supply Michael Keane and Timothy Neal argue the AR test should be widely adopted in lieu of the 2SLS t-test for estimating Frisch labor supply elasticity. Read here: buff.ly/4fhBJ2G
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Jakob Schneebacher @jschneebacher.bsky.social · 21/10/2024
The ONS has today released results from two new data collection efforts on public-sector productivity: a public-sector version of the existing Management and Expectations Survey and a public-sector time use survey. Overall, management practices look similar in the public and private sectors. 1/
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 19/10/2024
🚨New (very short) paper alert: "Bayesian Fama-MacBeth Regressions" with @SBryzgalova and Jiantao Huang tinyurl.com/bddpezz6 🧵1/n #Finance #Econometrics
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/10/2024
This is very much in the same spirit as the (more abstract) discussion in Rothenberg ("Identification in Parametric Models", Econometrica, 1971).
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/10/2024
The coeffs in their eq (5) = your eq (4). Notice that their results establish that two diff par vectors will imply diff coeffs in that eq. The proof goes: "Consider two sets of structural parameters (α, β, γ , δ) and (α′, β′, γ ′, δ′) leading to the same reduced form..." to get a contradiction.
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/10/2024
One other observation that occurs to me is that the identification result in Bramoulle, Djebbari and Fortin departs from the "reduced form" parameter. I suspect your result might relate to the (non-)identification of that parameter.
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/10/2024
Thanks, Alex! I guess this would depend on the context. (In a panel setting as in Besley and Case (AER, 1995) or here: academic.oup.com/restud/advan... this would appear less troublesome to me.)
academic.oup.com
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/10/2024
On the other hand, if the number of individuals in each group is finite and fixed but the number of groups grows or it is observed repeatedly, my intuition would be that one does not get the degeneracy result. I have not (yet) read the paper, but does this relate to your second result?
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 17/10/2024
The paper looks very interesting! The result is intuitive as n goes to infinity which I believe is what you rely on, right? (It jives with the discussion in Manski's 1993 paper (p.535) highlighting variation in the peer averages for identification and noted here: www.ucl.ac.uk/~uctpand/eco...)
ucl.ac.uk
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Jakob Schneebacher @jschneebacher.bsky.social · 13/09/2024
I am trying to be more active on here, and have not yet seen an IO or org econ starter pack, so here is an attempt at one: go.bsky.app/Rchu8QX Please shout out if I have forgotten someone, or when others join. #EconSky
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 14/09/2024
...and there is this as well: www.aeaweb.org/research/pap...
aeaweb.org
The power of Papal persuasion
How much did Pope John Paul II influence the beliefs and actions of Catholics?
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Aureo de Paula @paulaaureo.bsky.social · 02/09/2024
🎉 🎉 Check out our paper with I Rasul (UCL and @theifs.bsky.social) and P Souza (QMUL), now forthcoming at the REStud. You can find replication codes either at the REStud or on Github (shorturl.at/hO24S)! www.restud.com/identifying-...
restud.com
Identifying Network Ties from Panel Data: Theory and an Application to Tax Competition - The Review of Economic Studies
Social interactions determine many economic behaviors, but information on social ties does not exist in most publicly available and widely used datasets. We present results on the identification of so...
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Sebastian Buhai @sbuhai.bsky.social · 12/07/2024
Very interesting fresh working paper on production function estimation w. subjective firm expectations by Norris Keiller, @paulaaureo.bsky.social, & @johnvanreenen.bsky.social: arxiv.org/pdf/2407.07988 Just in time to serve as overture to John's UK Econ Advisory Council chairmanship gig, I suppose!😉
arxiv.org
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Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · 23/11/2023
In his jmp, Wenhao uses data and model of altruism within networks to study the evolution of patrilineal kinship in facilitating male marriages in 19th-century China amid development spurred by a forced port opening.
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