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Reposted by Afshon Ostovar

War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

How did a Yemeni militia become one of Tehran's most powerful proxies? @osto.bsky.social and @thomasjuneau.bsky.social analyze the rise of the Houthis on the latest episode of The Iran Reckoning. (Members Only) Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

It was great to talk Iran-Houthi ties - background, their evolution more recently, the consequences of growing Houthi power - with Afshon @osto.bsky.social:

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War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 19/08/2025

"Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has become more than a military force. In the latest episode of The Iran Reckoning, Afshon (@osto.bsky.social) and Yeganeh Torbati (@yjtorbati.bsky.social) unpack their growing role in the economy. Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep..."

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 05/08/2025

New episode of the pod just dropped. Really enjoyed this conversation with Gregory Brew. Lucid and fascinating discussion on oil, politics, and the shadowy art of trade under sanctions

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Erik Skare @erikskare.no · 04/08/2025

Look what just arrived! By some of the absolute best in their fields: Stéphane Lacroix, @musaalgharbi.bsky.social and @osto.bsky.social

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War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 21/07/2025

Behind the warheads — Afshon Ostovar (@osto.bsky.social‬) and Fabian Hinz explore how politics, partnerships, and pressure shaped Iran’s missile ambitions. Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

Where does Iran go after the 12-day war? Can it restore deterrence? How much is it willing to risk in regaining some of its lost power & influence? Its options are limited and will test its commitment to self-reliance. My latest in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social

engelsbergideas.com

Iran’s forever crisis is far from over

As a result of Israeli and American attacks, the Islamic Republic’s problems have only intensified. Its next steps could prove definitive for both the country and its ruling establishment.

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

engelsbergideas.com

Iran’s forever crisis is far from over

As a result of Israeli and American attacks, the Islamic Republic’s problems have only intensified. Its next steps could prove definitive for both the country and its ruling establishment.

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

Had an engaging, wide-ranging conversation with @faisalalyafai.bsky.social on Iran—what motivates its politics, what complicates its politics, and why it can be both a joy and a misery to cover. Many thanks to @newlinesmag.bsky.social for putting it together newlinesmag.com/podcast/what...

newlinesmag.com

What Iran Wants

Historian and podcaster Afshon Ostovar joins Faisal Al Yafai to discuss the ideology and strategy of Iran.

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

For you, Brian, I’ll make sure of it.

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

There’ll be loads. War won’t make this podcast.

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Huss/ein Banai @hbanai.bsky.social · 19/06/2025

Excellent analysis by @osto.bsky.social: “Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished.” www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/...

foreignaffairs.com

How Iran Lost

Tehran’s hard-liners squandered decades of strategic capital and undermined deterrence.

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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 18/06/2025

The regional status quo that Iran established over the past three decades is finished—and it is now clear that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have lost their decades-long conflict with Israel, argues @osto.bsky.social.

foreignaffairs.com

How Iran Lost

Tehran’s hard-liners squandered decades of strategic capital and undermined deterrence.

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished. — My latest in @foreignaffairs.com

foreignaffairs.com

How Iran Lost

Tehran’s hard-liners squandered decades of strategic capital and undermined deterrence.

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Jon Gambrell @jongambrell.bsky.social · 19/06/2025

APNewsAlert: DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Israeli strikes on #Iran have killed at least 639 people and wounded 1,329 others, a human rights group says.

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Sune Engel Rasmussen @suneengel.bsky.social · 14/06/2025

The intelligence apparatus that has kept Khamenei in power for 4 decades is crumbling around him. He will spend the autumn of his life fighting to salvage the Islamic Republic. "The ship that he stewarded has run aground,” @osto.bsky.social told me My story: www.wsj.com/world/middle... #iran

wsj.com

Israel’s Attacks Leave Iran’s Supreme Leader Exposed—With No Good Options

Tehran’s bruising fight with Israel has left its military weakened and unable to respond in kind to Israeli attacks

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John Haltiwanger @jchaltiwanger.bsky.social · 13/06/2025

@osto.bsky.social: "It’s a huge blow. It’s eviscerated a brain trust that has led Iran’s strategy for the last 20 years...It’s like taking out the bulk of your national security council...Khamenei is much more alone now than he was yesterday."

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 15/06/2025

Some thoughts on the outbreak of war between Iran and Israel, and what it could mean going forward. Really appreciated this conversation with Jordan Kranse and @wsj.com www.wsj.com/video/series...

wsj.com

Iran’s Military Arsenal Against Israel

As Iran strikes back at Israel after an unprecedented attack on Tehran’s nuclear operations, WSJ explains Iran’s military capabilities and strategy.

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John Haltiwanger @jchaltiwanger.bsky.social · 13/06/2025

Iran lost several top military commanders to Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours. To get a better sense of what these losses mean for Iran and the region, I spoke with @osto.bsky.social, a leading expert on Iran's military who wrote a book on the IRGC's history. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/13/i...

foreignpolicy.com

Iran’s Military Just Lost Its ‘Brain Trust’

Israeli strikes killed several of Iran’s top military commanders.

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Very cool! Congratulations, Sam!

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Abu Aardvark @abuaardvark.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Has Iran suffered a strategic defeat, or is it just a setback? What does its regional presence look like today - and how did it get there? My podcast this weeks talks to the great Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social about his new book Wars of Ambition pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...

pomeps.org

Wars of Ambition (S. 14, Ep. 3) - Project on Middle East Political Science

On this week’s episode of the podcast, Afshon Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School joins Marc Lynch to discuss his new book, Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Mid...

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

There is much that is unclear about Iran’s decisions over the last week. Iran has abandoned the revolution’s life’s work without a fight. There is little chance that such an extreme external collapse occured without severe turmoil inside the regime. This story is far from over.

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

IRGC Telegram accounts coming to terms with what’s happening is something to behold. Their entire world is imploding and their side—the resistance—isn’t even resisting. There’s scant attempt to paint a rosy picture, or tease out some greater strategy. They’re simply losing.

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

Losing ground in Syria will make Iran look increasingly weak to its enemies in Tel Aviv & Washington. If Iran doubles down it could be throwing men & materiel into a losing battle. But if Iran falls back, it’ll be admitting defeat, and cede hard-fought territory to its rivals.

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

Iran & Russia invested heavily in Assad. For Iran, Assad’s regime was too big to fail & critical for its strategic ambitions. For Russia, he guaranteed great power projection. Now, with Moscow & Tehran tangled in crises of their own, Assad is being treated like Bear Stearns.

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

As Iran is removing forces from east Syria, some units like the Afghan Fatemiyoun brigade, are being transferred from the north to Damascus and Latakia, as well as the Sayyida Zeinab area. Iran’s Afghan & Pakistani foreign legion might be the ones asked to go down with the ship

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

The rapid collapse of Iran’s Levantine front has been stunning. There was never a doubt that the power of Iran and its proxies rested on a house of cards—but what had been remarkable was their tenacity in war. That has vanished, at least for the moment. 1/

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

So, Iran is left with no good options. That can make it amenable to compromise, or prompt risky behavior. Moving assets to Syria, firing ballistic missiles on Idlib, attacks on shipping, terrorism abroad, flirting with nuclear breakout, or signing a deal are all possibilities.

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Almost all those options mean giving up on challenging Israel or delaying that effort for years or decades. That’s not something the IRGC or Khamenei can easily stomach. But Iran is also facing a direct challenge from Israel, and Trump wants a return to max pressure. 7/

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

And now Iran’s axis is faced with a stunning collapse. Hezbollah is consumed, Hamas is on life support, Assad’s forces are retreating. What does Iran do from here? Commit another decade to clawing back lost territory? Fall back to Iraq? Cut a deal Trump? Pivot to Yemen? 6/

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Syria was a geography to be exploited for personal enrichment or political gain. Their main threat was Israel, but b/c Israel limited its involvement in Syria, that threat could be managed. They grew complacent as a result, perpetuating state weakness out of self-interest. 5/

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Corrupt leaders are easier to control, kleptocratic economies are easier to exploit. Assad & the IRGC operated like cartels, but assumed they could still manage to hold a state together. Assad favored his own interests, & Iran favored its. Neither cared about the Syrian people 4/

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Iran has flourished where states are weak. This is a key factor in the IRGC’s effective franchising schemes. But while weak states allow greater space for militias to operate, they don’t build strong foundations for social control, much less popular buy-in. 3/

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Through the combination of Israeli military pressure, Turkish opportunism, & increased rebel unity, the weaknesses of the Iranian-Assad axis were quickly exposed & exploited. What’s perhaps most surprising, is how little Iran & its allies learned from ISIS’s expansion in Iraq 2/

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

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Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social · 12/11/2024

Thrilled to announce my new book is finally out! Centered on the clashing agendas of the U.S. and Iran from 9/11 to the Gaza war, it examines how we got here, where it's all headed, & why the Middle East will remain vital to global geopolitics. www.amazon.com/Wars-Ambitio...

amazon.com

Amazon.com: Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Middle East: 9780190940980: Ostovar, Afshon: Books

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