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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

@stanfordcddrl.bsky.social just published this "research-in-brief" summarizing my recent report with @wfd.org. If you're interested in how opposition parties challenge autocrats, check it out! You can read the full WFD report here: www.wfd.org/sites/defaul... cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/news/resisti...

cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu

Resisting Electoral Authoritarianism: Five Approaches and Their Pitfalls

CDDRL Research-in-Brief [3.5-minute read]

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

The Trump State Dept has been weaponizing the language of “values” to undermine the EU and advance far right political actors. Turns out one of its driving forces is a JD Vance protege barely out of college, described as a “savage conservative” www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/w...

nytimes.com

The 27-Year-Old Diplomat Waging Trump’s Cultural War With Europe

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Agreed. Huge hindsight bias in commentary on opposition strategies. Often structural conditions and opposition choices converge with a lot of luck in the mix We can and should learn from successes across cases. But we don’t have to try and make everything into a ready-made formula for victory

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Hungarian election certainly portends a vibe shift in how we think and talk about the global health of democracy. But just as Orban’s rise probably occupied too much of the imagination previously, we risk over indexing on his loss as well. The broader systemic shifts are real and have implications

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 11/04/2026

I should note that the ideological convictions here are relatively shallow in the traditional sense: Orbán’s opponent Péter Magyar is quite conservative. But it’s more about vibes than policy positions. What’s clear is that it has very little to do with realpolitik

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 11/04/2026

The Iran war has decimated Trump's "isolationist" credentials. But flying more under the radar on this front has been his administration's aggressive intervention in Hungary's domestic politics. It's worth understanding what's driving this, so a brief 🧵 1/ www.politico.eu/article/dona...

politico.eu

Trump promises economic support to Orbán ahead of crucial Hungary vote

Trump’s pledge to use the “full economic might” of the U.S. to help Hungarian economy comes as Orban trails in the polls going into Sunday’s election.

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

Five years on from the coup that toppled Myanmar’s civilian government, the National Unity Government (NUG) is struggling to maintain relevance. It reflects a challenge that many other oppositions have faced, and one that's at the core of my current research 🧵 1/ www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/w...

nytimes.com

Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Government in Exile Teeters on Irrelevance

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

The State Dept continuing to advance a new “values-based” foreign policy. Deploying targeted sanctions against individuals for highly ideological reasons. These are the type of sanctions that used to be levied against rights abusers. Now for European internet regulators

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

New development in the Trump admin effort to exert federal control over voter rolls. As I wrote a few months ago (see 🧵 below), since the admin’s legal case is weak, the biggest concern here is voluntary compliance by GOP-controlled states. And that’s exactly what we see happening now

stateline.org

Trump’s DOJ offers states confidential deal to remove voters flagged by feds • Stateline

The U.S. Department of Justice has sent confidential draft agreements on voter data sharing to more than a dozen states, part of the Trump administration’s effort to obtain unredacted voter rolls, wit...

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Stanford CDDRL @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

Opposition parties often look abroad for leverage. CDDRL's Einstein-Moos Postdoctoral Fellow Oren Samet explained how “opposition diplomacy” draws attention to repression and shapes international pressure, while exposing challengers to real risks.

cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu

Challenging Autocrats Abroad: Opposition Parties on the International

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Authoritarian Political Systems Group @apsgworkshop.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

RA Position! @ozlemtuncel.bsky.social and @osamet.bsky.social are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are - interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics, and - familiar with data collection apply by Dec 31: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

“A breakdown in state capacity... is very bad. And paradoxically… that may be the thing that is saving democracy” Pleased to be quoted in this thought-provoking new piece from @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social on the limits of Trump's capacity to erode US democracy www.vox.com/politics/472...

vox.com

Trump’s war on democracy is failing

And it’s his own fault.

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Ozlem Tuncel @ozlemtuncel.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

‼️⚠️Research Assistant Position! @osamet.bsky.social and I are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are ✅interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics ✅familiar with data collection Then, please apply here: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

US ends temporary status for Myanmar nationals, cites upcoming elections as 'progress' Cruel, idiotic, with absolutely no upside. Trump admin living in fantasy land on Myanmar www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

reuters.com

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

America still has a values-based foreign policy foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

US intervening directly in a foreign country's politics in a way that conflicts with Trump's supposed "transactionalism." We continue to have a "values-based" foreign policy, just with a different inflection www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

theguardian.com

Trump threatens to cut US aid to Argentina if Milei loses election

US president says ‘we will not be generous’ if leader fails to win key midterms after promising $20bn to prop up struggling economy

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

"...particularly for an administration that has eschewed large foreign interventions" I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)

politico.com

Trump-pledged support for Argentina stirs anger among Republicans

Powerful agriculture groups and their Republican allies in Congress are sounding alarms about the deal.

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

Alternative way of looking at this: if you are interested in promoting elite splits in the regime and its support network, this very much could be the way…

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

One of the greatest safeguards for American democracy (in contrast with other backsliding cases) is the decentralized nature of its election infrastructure, in the hands of states/localities. The Trump administration is trying to whittle that away. Alarming new report with some of the details:

nytimes.com

Trump Administration Quietly Seeks to Build National Voter Roll

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 06/09/2025

This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state A brief 🧵 on potential implications

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 06/09/2025

I don’t really think this is a fair characterization. The number of times I’ve seen the US compared *by Americans* to 1930s Germany, or Peronist Argentina, or Orban’s Hungary… There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 06/09/2025

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

The US cuts are obviously the most dramatic and make up a huge share of the total drop in ODA. But there are pretty steep declines elsewhere, and they are all compounding one another

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

This is likely to have significant immediate and longer term implications for democracy and human rights struggles. These numbers are pretty dramatic (although giving everything not hugely surprising)

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

The echoes of Cambodia, Venezuela, and elsewhere are very strong here. Turkey’s “nearly stunning election” in 2023 lit the spark for extreme backlash and an effort to extinguish opposition I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Once again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 01/09/2025

Useful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 01/09/2025

I have mixed feelings about this bc I have great respect for Cambodian rights defenders. But I really do not think Cambodia holds many positive lessons for the struggle for/defense of democracy Tbh, it’s a cautionary tale of how liberal rhetoric and commitments can manifestly fail to produce change

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 01/09/2025

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 31/08/2025

Not just far right. It’s a hallmark of authoritarian regimes broadly Propaganda can serve multiple purposes. Sometimes to convince, sometimes to bolster cohesion in the ruling group. And sometimes it’s a display of dominance (you *have* to believe ridiculous things because I hold the power)

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 31/08/2025

Key is that there is no perfect comparison case, and we’re probably better off learning from across cases and not over-indexing. Beyond those already mentioned, Argentina, Thailand, Venezuela, Poland, Philippines… they all provide lessons. But no single case explains our predicament or our future

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Dan Nexon @dhnexon.net · 30/08/2025

This consensus is correct. But I don't think enough people have actually internalized the implications. That is, they're perfectly happy to point out that too many Dem officials don't understand this, but they haven't updated their own understanding of what this means for taking the country back.

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 30/08/2025

Worth noting here that Orban is currently threatened by a new opposition force, which came from his *own* coalition and largely supports his conservative policy goals. Unclear if they will ultimately take power, but there's a lesson there: sometimes you have to make ideological compromises to win

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 30/08/2025

Another critical point here. If you believe we are operating under authoritarianism already then you have *zero* excuse to make maximalist policy demands of your coalition. The #1 priority is defeating the dictator, not getting a politician to say words that make you feel good or correct

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 30/08/2025

Very important point in an excellent thread. If we are operating in the zone of competitive authoritarianism, winning the midterms is both important and incredibly dangerous. It could resemble a set of cases that I have written about here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 29/08/2025

Alarming development. A direct attack on the separation of powers, a usurpation of Congressional authority. If the Supreme Court allows this to stand, that's the whole ballgame. They're doing this to provoke a fight they expect to win www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

politico.com

White House declares $4.9B in foreign aid unilaterally canceled in end-run around Congress' funding power

The administration is setting up clash with Capitol Hill over its use of the "pocket rescission."

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AaronM @aaronm.bsky.social · 28/08/2025

I've added my comment. I'm not sure if it will change anything, but it's a small amount of effort to try

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 28/08/2025

For those justifiably concerned/angry about this, there's a way to make your voices heard. Public notice and comment on this proposed rule goes through Sep 27 Go to this link and click "Submit a public comment" at the top: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 28/08/2025

I know there's a lot happening today, but this is sneaking in under the radar. This proposed new rule would absolutely crush foreign PhD students, potentially making it impossible for them to enroll with any certainty of their ability to finish www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 05/08/2025

“a U.S.-sanctioned human rights abuser, continues to use Brazil’s institutions to silence opposition and threaten democracy” Democracy promotion back on the menu I guess? The US just can’t quit a “values-based” foreign policy

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 03/08/2025

On Meet the Press today, a US official clearly stated that tariffs on Brazil were imposed in response to “lawfare” The new “values-based” foreign policy in action. Trump officials disparage “liberal interventionism” but can’t quit the rhetoric or actions of it - just targeted at political enemies

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

The new “values-based” foreign policy strikes again! foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

The new “values-based” foreign policy strikes again! foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

Fascinating details in here about what’s going on behind the scenes on US #Myanmar policy Confirms that recent sanctions relief for cronies was not part of an overarching policy shift, but one may still be coming. Seems like no one in the admin has any real sense of Myanmar tho t.co/37PVBQrYEY

t.co

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-team-hears-pitches-access-myanmars-rare-earths-2025-07-28/

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

“OFAC’s July 2025 delistings are neither a weakening of U.S. policy nor a reward for good behavior. They are costly, technical legal outcomes happening in many sanctioned countries.” #Myanmar #sanctions english.dvb.no/understandin...

english.dvb.no

Understanding Myanmar's sanctions landscape - DVB

Guest contributor James Shwe July has been a pivotal month for Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement. On July 22, the U.S. Congress advanced three of its strongest-ever bills to isolate the junta and suppo...

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

One point that I haven't seen discussed in the context of the Columbia deal is the fact that it only addresses the currently frozen funds. So they pay $200 mil to get back $400 mil in funding. But they'll still have to contend with major funding cuts and caps on overhead for the foreseeable future

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 23/07/2025

The US’s new “values-based” foreign policy is increasingly zeroing in on Europe and platform regulation as key priority areas This type of rhetoric was previously reserved for the worst dictatorships. Now it’s deployed against allies

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