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I should note that the ideological convictions here are relatively shallow in the traditional sense: Orbán’s opponent Péter Magyar is quite conservative. But it’s more about vibes than policy positions. What’s clear is that it has very little to do with realpolitik

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Of course, as with everything Trump, it's highly inconsistent (sometimes ideology seems to matter little). But it does help explain the odd choice of going to the mat for an unpopular Russian-aligned leader in a relatively small Eastern European nation. Ideology still matters END/

America Still Has a ‘Values-Based’ Foreign Policy

I have written about this phenomenon - what I call the "new values-based foreign policy" (see here: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u... ) The Trump administration has not abandoned interventionism based on values; it has instead reoriented the values around which policy decisions are made 6/

foreignpolicy.com

It’s increasingly difficult to understand Trump’s foreign policy without an ideological lens.

Despite the admin's attempt to position itself as "transactionalist" in foreign policy, it's approach has instead been highly ideological at key moments. Hungary is a perfect example. They're backing Viktor Orbán because key MAGA leaders (esp Vance) see him as an ideological ally 5/

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It's possible these moves are driven by Trump personally, but more likely they are the product of influence within and on his inner circle. And that's where things get interesting There have been direct efforts to influence Trump and his people, and they're often pushing on an open door 4/

Hondurans vote amid Trump threat to cut aid if his preferred candidate loses

It's a similar playbook to the one that Trump deployed in Honduras during elections there last year. In that case, it was seemingly successful (although hard to tell exactly what swayed votes given how close the result was) www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n... 3/

theguardian.com

US president favours Nasry ‘Tito’ Asfura of rightwing National party, as polls show three candidates are neck-and-neck

Trump's promise of economic aid contingent on an increasingly unlikely victory in Sunday's election by incumbent Viktor Orbán comes after JD Vance visited Hungary to try and shore up Orbán's position in the polls 2/

Trump promises economic support to Orbán ahead of crucial Hungary vote

The Iran war has decimated Trump's "isolationist" credentials. But flying more under the radar on this front has been his administration's aggressive intervention in Hungary's domestic politics. It's worth understanding what's driving this, so a brief 🧵 1/ www.politico.eu/article/dona...

politico.eu

Trump’s pledge to use the “full economic might” of the U.S. to help Hungarian economy comes as Orban trails in the polls going into Sunday’s election.

That context leaves me less critical of the NUG's performance and less pessimistic about the opposition's longer-term prospects than some quoted in the NYT article above (though I wouldn't say I'm an optimist). Being in opposition is just *hard* and the long game is far from played out in Myanmar

Myanmar's previous gov-in-exile, the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB), faced a similar trajectory in the 1990s and 2000s. Same goes for parallel government entities formed in Belarus, Venezuela, and elsewhere 3/

A sobering reality is that the efficacy of opposition initiatives like these tends to erode over time. Absent game-changing successes, internal criticism mounts and foreign partners lose faith 2/

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Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Government in Exile Teeters on Irrelevance

Five years on from the coup that toppled Myanmar’s civilian government, the National Unity Government (NUG) is struggling to maintain relevance. It reflects a challenge that many other oppositions have faced, and one that's at the core of my current research 🧵 1/ www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/w...

nytimes.com

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

The State Dept continuing to advance a new “values-based” foreign policy. Deploying targeted sanctions against individuals for highly ideological reasons. These are the type of sanctions that used to be levied against rights abusers. Now for European internet regulators

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

New development in the Trump admin effort to exert federal control over voter rolls. As I wrote a few months ago (see 🧵 below), since the admin’s legal case is weak, the biggest concern here is voluntary compliance by GOP-controlled states. And that’s exactly what we see happening now

stateline.org

Trump’s DOJ offers states confidential deal to remove voters flagged by feds • Stateline

The U.S. Department of Justice has sent confidential draft agreements on voter data sharing to more than a dozen states, part of the Trump administration’s effort to obtain unredacted voter rolls, wit...

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Reposted by Oren Samet

Stanford CDDRL @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

Opposition parties often look abroad for leverage. CDDRL's Einstein-Moos Postdoctoral Fellow Oren Samet explained how “opposition diplomacy” draws attention to repression and shapes international pressure, while exposing challengers to real risks.

cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu

Challenging Autocrats Abroad: Opposition Parties on the International

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Reposted by Oren Samet

Authoritarian Political Systems Group @apsgworkshop.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

RA Position! @ozlemtuncel.bsky.social and @osamet.bsky.social are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are - interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics, and - familiar with data collection apply by Dec 31: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

“A breakdown in state capacity... is very bad. And paradoxically… that may be the thing that is saving democracy” Pleased to be quoted in this thought-provoking new piece from @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social on the limits of Trump's capacity to erode US democracy www.vox.com/politics/472...

vox.com

Trump’s war on democracy is failing

And it’s his own fault.

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Reposted by Oren Samet

Ozlem Tuncel @ozlemtuncel.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

‼️⚠️Research Assistant Position! @osamet.bsky.social and I are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are ✅interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics ✅familiar with data collection Then, please apply here: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

US ends temporary status for Myanmar nationals, cites upcoming elections as 'progress' Cruel, idiotic, with absolutely no upside. Trump admin living in fantasy land on Myanmar www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

reuters.com

Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

America still has a values-based foreign policy foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...

Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

US intervening directly in a foreign country's politics in a way that conflicts with Trump's supposed "transactionalism." We continue to have a "values-based" foreign policy, just with a different inflection www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

theguardian.com

Trump threatens to cut US aid to Argentina if Milei loses election

US president says ‘we will not be generous’ if leader fails to win key midterms after promising $20bn to prop up struggling economy

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

"...particularly for an administration that has eschewed large foreign interventions" I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)

politico.com

Trump-pledged support for Argentina stirs anger among Republicans

Powerful agriculture groups and their Republican allies in Congress are sounding alarms about the deal.

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

Isn’t this extremely blatantly illegal and unenforceable? H1B fees are set by Congressional statute. I’m confused why all the reporting treats this as a real thing.

There are advantages to keeping the locus of debate more local. Election admin has become more politicized in recent years but not as much as most other issues. And people trust their local officials. Congressional hearings could polarize it further. But, as always, tough to know the right strategy

Thanks for sharing the paywall-free link! The good news here is that most election officials (from both parties) have balked at these requests for obvious reasons. And it is going to be hard for them to really mess with the existing infrastructure. Doesn’t mean they can’t try and seed doubts tho!

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Correct. I think it’s smart for Democrats in Congress to remain engaged with a large range of constituencies while still pushing for a shutdown as leverage with the administration. That doesn’t seem contradictory at all

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Alternative way of looking at this: if you are interested in promoting elite splits in the regime and its support network, this very much could be the way…

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Trump Administration Quietly Seeks to Build National Voter Roll

One of the greatest safeguards for American democracy (in contrast with other backsliding cases) is the decentralized nature of its election infrastructure, in the hands of states/localities. The Trump administration is trying to whittle that away. Alarming new report with some of the details:

nytimes.com

Reposted by Oren Samet

This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state A brief 🧵 on potential implications

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I don’t understand the point of this comment. Is the suggestion that this is normal and acceptable? It’s also inaccurate re: US and very different rule of law contexts

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I don’t really think this is a fair characterization. The number of times I’ve seen the US compared *by Americans* to 1930s Germany, or Peronist Argentina, or Orban’s Hungary… There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!

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This is the next step. Lower level defections apparently aren't enough. They want to aim higher, and this is part of the plan Cambodia's regime is hardening. The road ahead for opposition becomes even more challenging

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More opposition defections lift Cambodia’s ruling party ahead of July election

They have spent the past several years turning the screws to get former CNRP members to defect to the ruling party. It's worked to a large extent (1,000s of lower level officials have embraced the ruling party), but they still aren't satisfied www.rfa.org/english/news...

rfa.org

Three opposition figures send hand-written apologies and pre-recorded videos to Hun Sen in recent days.

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The charges were bogus then, and they're bogus now. But the Kem Sokha case demonstrates the extent to which the regime is willing to wield this weapon

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Cambodia: Opposition Leader Convicted on Bogus Charges

Charges of "treason" were the basis for arresting and convicting opposition leader Kem Sokha, and used as an excuse to dissolve his Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) in 2017 www.hrw.org/news/2023/03...

hrw.org

The Phnom Penh municipal court on March 3, 2023, found the Cambodian political opposition leader Kem Sokha guilty of treason and sentenced him to a 27 year prison sentence, and indefinitely suspended ...

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This makes for a dangerous combination. The gov will likely use this law to further turn the screws on opposition leaders like Sam Rainsy and others, potentially stripping them of citizenship outright or wielding the threat to try and control them

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Two points of context are critical: 1) after years of crackdown, much of the remaining opposition is in exile, and many hold dual citizenship 2) The Cambodian regime has not been shy about weaponizing claims about "foreign conspiracies" and "treason" in the past

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

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To be fair, some of that is selection bias. Two more from the Orange side were just blocked from becoming PM in the first place

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

True. A big question is whether these judges prioritize that form of respect or the maximization of partisan aims. I’ve tended to think the former is important and thus viewed earlier rulings as preemptive compliance to bolster institutional credibility. But that interpretation is under strain