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Nick Leach

@nickleach.bsky.social
497 followers 327 following 11 posts

climate change, extreme weather, forecasting. minds the gap between academia and industry

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Reposted by Nick Leach
National Centre for Atmospheric Science @ncas-uk.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
What is forecast-based attribution? And did climate change influence the devastating monsoon rainfall in Pakistan, summer 2022? Find out from NCAS climate scientists @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social & @nickleach.bsky.social: ncas.ac.uk/climate-chan...
ncas.ac.uk
Climate change and monsoon rainfall in Pakistan - NCAS
Researchers have developed a new approach to understand the role of climate change in extreme weather events and humanitarian disasters.
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Nick Leach @nickleach.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
If a mailing list does get created, I'd be v interested!
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Reposted by Nick Leach
Kai Kornhuber @kornhuber.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
Join us @egu.eu for our session on Physical #ClimateRisk assessment for the #Finance and #Insurance sectors. Solicited talk: @nickleach.bsky.social Orals: May 1st | 8:30-10:15 | 2.17🟥 @aceglar.bsky.social @nicolaranger.bsky.social @janasillmann.bsky.social @iiasa.ac.at @lamont.columbia.edu
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Nick Leach @nickleach.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
I'm in Vienna at #EGU25 this week! Feel free to reach out if you're also here and interested in chatting about: • Extreme weather risk, impacts and it's attribution • Climate stress testing in the financial sector • What it's like to work in between academia and industry • Anything else!
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Nick Leach @nickleach.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
If you want project specific environments that are built into each project (eg for others to work off afterwards), I've found poetry solves a lot of the headaches conda creates around environment solving. Basically makes the environment part of the project itself and doesn't let you separate the two
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Nick Leach @nickleach.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Sorry yeah not super clear from me! My thoughts were that given observations have been trending towards La Nina while CMIP models generally trend towards El Nino over the recent past, would this imply that the model-estimated probability might be biased high?
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Nick Leach @nickleach.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Given ENSO seems necessary for such a jump, would it imply the probability of this kind of jump "should be" (ie. if the models reproduced the observed trend towards La Nina) even lower in climate models than calculated?
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Nick Leach @nickleach.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Really neat paper! Something I'm wondering after reading - how does the discrepancy between modelled and observed ENSO trends affect the qualitative conclusions?
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Reposted by Nick Leach
Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Do you have a strong background, including a PhD and publication record, in weather and climate dynamics or closely related areas? Would you like to apply your skills in an interdisciplinary research project on weather impacts on health across the globe ?
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Nick Leach @nickleach.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Global climate highlights here: climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
climate.copernicus.eu
Global Climate Highlights 2024
This section looks at the global Climate Indicators for which data are available for all or part of 2023. For more details on each, visit the respective Climate Indicator page. The page will be update...
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Nick Leach @nickleach.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
A group of us from @oxfordphysics.bsky.social reviewed the @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social 2024 global climate highlights for @theconversation.com. Link to the highlights in thread.
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Nick Leach @nickleach.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
I did something similar (but less well explained!) a while back and started to separate out the different components (at least into a few more groups: njleach.github.io/2020/12/29/H.... NB. this uses a different constrained FaIR parameter set & was based on emission-driven runs so some differences!
njleach.github.io
Historical contributions to warming: what, who, where? · njleach
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Reposted by Nick Leach
Matt Priestley @mattpriestley.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
The UK windstorm season 2024/25 has seen a fairly active start (Bert, Darragh). In the future we expect these storms to be more frequent and intense, but by how much? Well in a new paper, we've tried to answer this... rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Forced trends and internal variability in climate change projections of extreme European windstorm frequency and severity
This study provides an assessment of changes to European windstorm severity and frequency in a warming climate. The results show increases in storm average and aggregate severity for western Europe, ....
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Reposted by Nick Leach
Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
What is driving the rate of global warming (2010-2019)? * CO2 is by far the dominant factor * CH4 is next on the list * Then aerosols, though uncertain value Aerosols are important, but remember the real enemy is CO2! njleach.github.io/2020/12/29/H... What about acceleration? 1/
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Reposted by Nick Leach
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 03/12/2024
The model calibration paper for fair is now published in Geoscientific Model Development! 🎉 TLDR: how do we constrain a highly parameterised model to observational and assessed constrained ranges, with uncertainty? gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
gmd.copernicus.org
fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections
Abstract. Simple climate models (also known as emulators) have re-emerged as critical tools for the analysis of climate policy. Emulators are efficient and highly parameterised, where the parameters a...
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Nick Leach @nickleach.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Thanks for setting this up, it's a great resource! Keen to be added if space. I'm a climate scientist at a climate risk analytics startup & postdoc at U of Oxford researching extreme weather attribution.
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Reposted by Nick Leach
Prof. Sonia I Seneviratne @soniaseneviratne.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
I tried to prepare a starter pack on climate, weather and hydrological extremes. Please let me know if you would like to be added, the more the merrier! go.bsky.app/86zAwyH
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Reposted by Nick Leach
Kai Kornhuber @kornhuber.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
We are excited to announce our #EGU25 session on 'Advances in physical climate risk assessment for the financial and insurance sectors.' Abstracts: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... @iiasa.ac.at @columbiaclimate.bsky.social @eurogeosciences.bsky.social @nickleach.bsky.social
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Nick Leach @nickleach.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
It was great to chat to @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org for this piece! Some really interesting perspectives on where attribution science is heading...
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