iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Posted about this in ElectionCord, but to put it on Bluesky, Indiana Dems have a good number of flip opportunities in county council seats in the Indy Metro (currently they only control seats in Indy/Marion County)

County council districts in Indianapolis metro colored by 2024 presidential partisanship.

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Indiana has two very blue-trending counties that are stubbornly red downballot. Even though Hamilton County (Trump +6.0) is bluer than neighboring Boone County (Trump + 15.9), the bluest county council district in Hamilton is just a bit redder than in Boone.

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

These straight men are more likely to express negative sentiment towards opposite-sex bisexual people, but the reasons for not dating them are very similar. "Disgust" vs "Religion/Morals" being the main different reasons

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The '24 Selzer poll was a big outlier trusted because of her history being right on big outliers. The nice thing about Marist D+8 is that it makes it easier to believe the D+2 polls

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

If he doesn't need congressional approval then why would it be conditional on Republicans holding Congress?

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Dumalag won the city of Hopkins by 3 votes and got a similar percentage to what Craig got in the Senate race (both statewide and in SD46). Hopefully, she will inspire more people to take a run at incumbents

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

32% of Saint Louis Park's 12th precinct voted to send Peggy to the US Senate and Ron Latz to the MN Senate

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David Brauer @dbrauer.net · 12/08/2026

Gotta win enough Minnesota Senate seats to marginalize Latz

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Coming up a theory comparing the whole US-Iran war to battle of Carrhae

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

They should have pushed their undecideds more. 18% undecided 5 days out

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Thinking about this time in 2020 when this conservative around my age wanted to be my friend. He felt the need to constantly critique how I didn't fit his (quite traditional) view of what a man should be like.

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Patrick Hanlon, mayor of Hopkins, flipped his SD46 endorsement from incumbent Ron Latz to challenger Lynette Dumalag more than 3 weeks ago. Despite this, Latz is still claiming Hanlon's endorsement on his social media, his website, and his most recent mailer ATP, Latz is straight-up lying.

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Among the Senators who need to rescind their endorsement; Al Franken's replacement, Tina Smith

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Angie Craig thinks that Flanagan is too associated with Walz (and therefore his unfavorables will rub off on her) and that's she's not associated *enough* with Walz (so why won't he endorse her?).

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

It's funny how the Craig campaign has settled on "Everything is taking corporate PAC money, except for taking corporate PAC money, which is fine"

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Peggy Flanagan @peggyflanagan.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Today, you might see a TV ad starring something that... kind of looks like me. My opponent's super PAC is using an AI deepfake of me to mislead voters. They can't win with the truth - so they're resorting to lies. It's disgusting. Minnesotans deserve better.

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

About half an hour from the filling deadline, I think the DFL has contested every state legislative race, which is good

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David Brauer @dbrauer.net · 27/05/2026

Local political sicko wonders how Angie Craig turning tail will affect the convention delegate mix and thus the state auditor endorsement.

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

I was thinking the argument was that if people early voting in 2025 had known about it, they would have voted for legislative R's. The argument that having a little bit more time to think about it would have changed the outcome of the *referendum* is ridiculous

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

To use a cringe phrase: winning is easy, governing's harder

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

AFAICT, MN constitutional amendment votes have to be during general elections, so the fastest path is 2026 Win Trifecta -> 2028 Pass Amendment -> 2030 Maps in effect

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

I didn't realize that "as he died to make men holy, let us die to make men free" was from Battle Hymn of the Republic. I thought it was just a line someone said

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 26/04/2026

At the CD3 DFL convention, no booing or backwards standing at Angie Craig speaking. Not sure how the delegate numbers break down. She's arguing that Minnesota is a swing state

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

I see this take, and I raise a bit further. Driving through a place doesn't count unless you stop there and do something other than refuel

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

No guarantee it gets to this of course, but his district is Harris + 2.1

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

This is interesting given what happened at the SD46 convention. Hoffman spoke a few sentences in favor of Ron Latz, was shut down by the convention co-chair, and some Lynette people unsuccessfully tried to get a suspension of the rules to deduct 2 minutes from Latz's speaking time.

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

This discourse recurs occasionally, so I want to have a nuanced take. The histroricity of Jesus is well-accepted, but it does not have the same level of evidence as Paul or Joseph Smith (Smith ran for president! Why is he so often used a comparison to Jesus in historicity?)

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

Thankful that Deb Haaland got the title of "first Native American cabinet secretary" before this guy

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

"Wow, you're telling me now for the first time" is such a good vocal stim

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

Thinking of this general discourse, more common than people actually supporting abstaining rather than support hypothetical-nominee Newsom are people saying they would vote blue but think you shouldn't be too loud about it right now. This isn't a moral error, but a tactical one.

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

One potential explanation for why people are upset at Trump about inflation when they weren't upset Reagan is that Reagan only promised "the beginning of the end" of inflation, while Trump promised a mythical no-negative-tradeoffs deflation. But like, was anger at Biden based on his 2020 promises?

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

She's likely the most popular politician in Minnesota (+20 approval in a recent poll), but I don't like this. Especially given the likelihood she gives her old seat to Angie Craig

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

I don't know it'd play PR wise, but I'd love it if the 2028 DNC had a bunch of signs saying "Mass Amnesty Now".

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

This is true, but that they are already in violation of the law/constitution shifts meaningful wins to the "teeth" of the law. Local officials/Judges can do X kinda stuff.

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

They could have done more, but J6 committee did exist and didn't have a major effect on public memory/opinion

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Francis Fukuyama @frankfukuyama.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

Don't back down, Europe: youtu.be/SS5Ep3LTqnE

youtu.be

Europe: Don't Back Down

YouTube video by Frankly Fukuyama

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Norm Charlatan @normcharlatan.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

Me, reading and studying history: Haha fuck yeah!!! Yes!! Me, realizing I am living through a historical event: Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck.

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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

ICE OUT NOW

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

Don't like dooming, but isn't this what happened the first time around? People hated him but things didn't collapse so they later retroactively decided they didn't hate it.

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terra firma, terra eterna 🚱🌉 @kavi.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Posts from 1870:

We need to run these carpet bagging republicans out of GA! This is a Dem state!

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

The joke is funny, but December is the 12th month because the revised Roman calendar, credited to Numa Pompilius, added Jan and Feb to the beginning of the year rather than the end. I suppose the joke could be that Caesar should have changed it back when making the Julian calendar?

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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

Closing the airspace over a foreign country is a de facto declaration of war but we’ve pushed so far into “let’s conspicuously underreact so everyone knows we’re savvy people not overreacting to Trump” that his de facto declaration of war is literally not even being reported on the news

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 07/11/2025

For a couple years, I delivered pizza in an exurb not too far away from Whitestown. There were so many signs on peoples' doors vaguely threatening they'd shoot before you could see them

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

Thinking about how the longest time between extraordinary presidential transitions is from Washington assuming the presidency to WHH dying, which is the same amount of days between Nixon resigning and July ~13 2026

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neolibsciguy.bsky.social @neolibsciguy.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

Imagine doing the same thing to the Congressional Apportionment Amendment, making us constitutionally obligated to a 9000 member House of Representatives

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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

The remarks weren’t “about Charlie Kirk,” they were about how this administration is using Kirk’s death as an excuse to shut down critics … and they responded by proving him completely correct.

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