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Dr Ned Williams

@nedcwilliams.bsky.social
244 followers 197 following 27 posts

Scientist at UK Met Office, interested in climate variability, prediction and predictability. Previously at the University of Exeter and MPI-M. When not working, hopefully outdoors. He/him

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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Pleased to say that I've published my research from my previous role at MPI: We used a large ensemble decadal prediction system and found evidence of atmospheric circulation skill relating to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, although model deficiencies that limit skill persist:
esd.copernicus.org
Predictability of European summer climate: the influence of competing mechanisms related to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
Abstract. Skilful predictions of European summer climate are increasingly relevant due to an increasing probability of temperature extremes, but prediction skill beyond the forced trend has so far pro...
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
A bit of an odd snippet from this month's Weather magazine. The 'campaigners' did damage equipment designed to spare road users from hazards, but that was their intention all along.
Excerpt from RMetS weather:
Speed rage or snow gauge?
An anti-speed camera campaign in County
Durham has taken an unexpected meteoro-
logical turn. Three weather stations located
in Bradbury, Toronto and Tow Law have been
destroyed, apparently mistaken for the nation’s
least-loved roadside accessory. One even
found itself face down in a field full of sheep.
Far from snapping speeders, these sta-
tions quietly measure road and air tem-
peratures so gritters know when to roll,
sparing motorists from wintry hazards
through the colder months. Temporary
signs declaring ‘not a speed monitor’
were already in place, but the council is
now arranging for permanent signs to be
installed. (Source: BBC.)
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
It doesn't help that most undergraduate physics courses in the UK treat classical physics as an aside. By my third year the entirety of mandatory lecture/exam modules were quantum/particle/cosmology focused and I first learnt fluid dynamics from an optional module in the maths department.
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Nature @nature.com · 26/08/2025
Annual updates to ‘climate forcing’ data sets would allow simulations to keep pace as global warming accelerates. go.nature.com/45N9aXt
go.nature.com
Climate models need more frequent releases of input data — here’s how to do it
Annual updates to ‘climate forcing’ data sets would allow simulations to keep pace as global warming accelerates.
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
It was great to give an overview of my research so far at the RMetS Early Career conference earlier today! And great to hear about the variety of other research from early career scientists in the field.
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Very pleased to have won the Malcolm Walker Award for New Environmental Researchers! It is an honour to stand in the company of previous winners and it was great to attend the awards ceremony on Wednesday alongside the winners of other RMetS awards. www.rmets.org/news/royal-m...
rmets.org
The Royal Meteorological Society Announces 2024 Award Winners in Landmark Anniversary Year
The Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS) is delighted to announce the winners of the RMetS 2024 Awards, following an exceptional range of nominations from across the international community of pioneer...
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
I have good memories of cycling to here as a teen. It's a shame if future generations won't be able to do the same.
theguardian.com
Anger as Dorset estate withdraws public entry to ‘stunning’ local landmark
Visitors lament ‘tremendous shame’ as notice withdrawing public access appears after £30m sale of Bridehead Estate
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Doug McNeall @dougmcneall.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
THE RISE OF MACHINE LEARNING IN CLIMATE MODELLING Very pleased to report the first published output from the @metoffice.bsky.social new team Data Driven Climate Modelling team. A short commentary from my esteemed colleague George Jordan rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The rise of machine learning in climate modelling
Click on the article title to read more.
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
💧Latest Hydrological Summary shows: -Below-average March rainfall in all areas of UK after dry winter -Many rivers in N & W have exceptionally low flows -Record low March groundwater levels in N Ireland, Scotland, Wales 🔎https://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2025-04/HS_202503.pdf
Maps illustrating the Hydrological Summary for March 2025.
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 11/03/2025
"Why are you so bent out of shape, polar vortex?" Beautiful view via earth.nullschool.net (using NOAA's free GFS model data) of the current stratospheric warming event – likely to be the final stratospheric warming (FSW) – featuring one of the largest stratospheric wave-1 disturbances on record.
A view of the Northern Hemisphere winds at 10 hPa, with the cyclonic polar vortex shrunken and displaced to over Fennoscandia, and a large anticyclone dominating most of the Arctic
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Yesterday was my last day at MPI-M, this morning I left Hamburg. It has been a great experience to live and work abroad and there's a lot I'll miss, but I'm also looking forward to what's next!
Bicycle with loaded panniers and a large backpack rested on it. On a train platform.Looking down the Elbe from Landungsbrücken towards the Elbphilharmonie. Scattered clouds.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 14/02/2025
I really cannot believe my childhood career dream might end like this. Feeling so small and lost.
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
Reposting this report, which has a message which I suspect holds true in many other countries. www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
metoffice.gov.uk
Met Office delivers £56 billion of economic value to the UK
A new independent economic study has concluded that the Met Office will deliver benefits worth £56 billion to the UK economy over the next ten years.
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
A data availability statement I wrote yesterday is no longer valid...
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 31/01/2025
What better way to spend three days in July than by coming to Manchester for this year's @rmets.org Annual Weather and Climate Conference? 😁 Please consider submitting an abstract – deadline 14 February. We look forward to seeing you there! More details: www.rmets.org/annualconfer...
RMetS Annual Weather and Climate Conference 2025 banner
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Visited Sylt at the very northern end of Germany yesterday. Only accessible from mainland Germany by train, with lots of unique landscapes and nice to see the sea!
Sandy meandering path towards the top of a heath-covered sand dune. Grey skyView down wooden stepped walkway towards thatched house and sand dunesSandy beach, looking along it with sea in background on the right
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
Excited to say that I'll be starting a Scientist role in the Monthly-to-Decadal team at the Met Office in March! I will miss Hamburg and it's been a great experience to live and work in Germany, but I'm also looking forward to being back in Exeter/Devon.
Long exposure picture of Met Office HQ, Exeter at night/twilight. Road in foreground, greenery and path towards glass-plate building behind.
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
I worry that the concept of geoengineering is increasingly going to enter public discussion, not through climate scientists who want to make the nuances and ethics clear, but through the large audience tech sector who want to be seen as having solutions.
LinkedIn post from Andrew Ng: 

"Just released: New AI Climate Simulator that you can play with. Visualize how geoengineering can slow global warming.

There is no longer any path to limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (Paris Agreement), unless we use geoengineering. Reflecting 1% of sunlight away from earth would lead to an extra ~1 degree of cooling.

Our simulator lets you explore how geoengineering via Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) gives us new paths to keep warming to 1.5 degrees. I think SAI is a promising technology worth serious exploration. Check out the simulator here: planetparasol.ai"
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
Built Hamburg's highest* snowman earlier. *in terms of altitude
Pyramid shaped rock in snow, snow covered trees in background View broadly above the same rock, with small snowman built on top
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
At some point the NWP world has to address that 'we run a statistical model based on what happened in the past to estimate the future' became the futuristic tech-y solution instead of 'we use the world's most powerful computers to represent the earth based on physics and then run it forward in time'
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Guy Shrubsole @guyshrubsole.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
Dartmoor visitor centre to close as National Park Authority cannot afford to renew lease from Duchy National Parks are facing 12% budget cuts - not a great way for Labour to celebrate the 75th anniversary of their creation & why is Duchy charging at all? www.tavistock-today.co.uk/news/nationa...
tavistock-today.co.uk
Princetown national park visitor centre to close
THE POPULAR Dartmoor National Park visitor centre in Princetown is due to close after a funding injection ends in March causing concern the economy of the village will be affected.
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ASPECT project @aspect-project.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
ASPECT project is now on Bluesky!! Join our network to keep in touch with the latest project news! @aspect-project.bsky.social
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 10/10/2024
A little over a week to enter nominations for the 2024 Royal Meteorological Society Awards. A wide range of awards which recognise (among others) early-career scientists, educators, communicators and world-leading scientists in meteorology and climate science. www.rmets.org/nominations-...
rmets.org
Royal Meteorological Society
The Royal Meteorological Society is the Learned and Professional Society for weather and climate. Our mission is to promote the understanding and application of meteorology for the benefit of all.
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 04/10/2024
Pleased to have played a role in this work: the 1 year-lagged impact of ENSO in the extratropics far exceeds the expected effect due to ENSO autocorrelation, and we propose large-scale atmospheric angular momentum anomalies propagating polewards as a mechanism. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
ENSO affects the North Atlantic Oscillation 1 year later
We demonstrate a 1-year lagged extratropical response to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in observational analyses and climate models. The response maps onto the Arctic Oscillation and is stro...
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Prof Penny Endersby @pennyend.bsky.social · 02/10/2024
Extraordinary rainfall distribution in UK in September. Bedfordshire and Oxfordshire saw their wettest month in our 188 year series. But only 25% wetter than average overall despite many areas having 3x average rainfall. More details in Met Office press release www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
A colour coded map of UK showing central England with extraordinary high rainfall in purple and western Scotland very dry in brown
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 26/09/2024
New paper, led by Yingfei Fang during her visit to the University of Exeter: ENSO teleconnections to the South Pacific are underestimated in CMIP6 models, and are generally too far west although the position improves with increased ocean resolution. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 23/09/2024
It was nice to be at the Met Office (and University of Exeter) last week, with lots of useful discussions on climate prediction research. Featuring some grey sky for bluesky, to prove once and for all that the Met Office aren't choosing their weather.
Looking towards Met Office HQ, a glass plated building with a pond and associated greenery in the foreground. Grey sky
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Kevin Schwarzwald @kschwarzwald.bsky.social · 16/09/2024
🚨 Here to share a new paper on the future of the #HornofAfrica March-May long rains and the "East African Paradox", which just dropped as Early Online Release in the Journal of Climate. t.co/TpIY616dqt
t.co
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-24-0225.1/JCLI-D-24-0225.1.xml
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 07/09/2024
Spotted in a hotel in Köln: a classic unit conversion error
Sign explaining how a fan coil cooling system works, in particular "The room temperature can only be adjusted by 3°C (37.4°F) compared to the outside temperature".
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Dr Ned Williams @nedcwilliams.bsky.social · 16/08/2024
Now that Twitter is dead and done, I've been convinced that here might be the best alternative for science.
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