I'd never considered using prediction markets for weather forecasting. Interesting to see a positive result reported here arxiv.org/abs/2609.23969
arxiv.org
Prediction Markets Beat the Weather Forecast on Tomorrow's High Temperature
The sooner we receive information, and the more accurate it is, the better planning decisions we can make. Every day, prediction markets let anyone bet on tomorrow's high temperature in cities around ...
![Comic. [Person who looks like a wizard, dressed in robe with tall pointy hat and with long beard, standing in front of chart, proclaiming to another person.] PERSON 1: By gazing into my crystals of zircon, I have divined the date of the hour of fire marking the limit of this world’s existence. 4.54 billion years ago, the beginning was nigh! [caption] Geochronologists are just reverse prophets of doom.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreicrm7t53pq2gc4xz6stfdxawcwx7nyaxopgrfolf53wcvm45rpone)
![Comic. [Person and person with white hat facing two boxes stacked with $80 price tag and sale tag on each box.] PERSON 1: They want $80 for this? I could make one myself for $10 in parts, an hour of work, a trip to the hardware store, another $30 in parts, another few hours of work, two more trips to the store for $20 more in parts, another hour of work to redo the first hour of work because I messed up, and $80 to buy this when the one I made breaks.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreifdsd32pjwefxji33c5eferlek4o6kkadoosqisb5uatqjmrq4q4q)
![4-panel comic. (1) [Two people standing next to house with solar panels on roof. Person 2 has a black hat.] PERSON 1: Wait, you got solar panels? I thought you were against renewables. (2) PERSON 2: Oh, definitely. I hate the environment and want to harm it as much as possible. I’d *love* to have an oil furnace. (3) PERSON 2: But the technology just isn’t there and the cost is too high. I despise solar, but it makes more financial sense in my situation. (4) PERSON 2: But with the money I’m saving, I can buy and burn industrial waste in my yard to try to make up for it. PERSON 1: Ah, yeah, carbon onsets.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreie2wurazlh7ynqjwmo56q3vyj5mu7ol6wgbwftgza656o4f2f5v6i)
![Comic. [Person 1 talking to person with bun whose hands are fisted and has steam above her head and a person with a white hat who is facepalming.] PERSON 1: I was able to produce artificial gravity by rotating the ship along its longitudinal axis, helping passengers maintain muscle mass on the long-duration voyage! [caption] Well, the cruise line fired me.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreiftbzwahfxj5k2yzpxplagv5aajeeyenjt5ws4ko4ifzen46unvmi)
![4-panel comic. (1) [Person with white hat talking to another person.] PERSON 1 with white hat: As Sherlock Holmes said, When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. (2) PERSON 2: What about the possibility that you forgot to eliminate a possibility? Or that you eliminated one incorrectly? Both of those remain, too. (3) PERSON 1: You’re being pedantic. It’s just a general rule for deduction. PERSON 2: But it’s a *bad rule*. (4) PERSON 2: How often have you thought, “I can’t find this thing, and I’ve searched the whole house. The only place I haven’t looked is the car, so it *must* be there.” PERSON 2: ...And then it’s never in the car. PERSON 1: *It’s never in the car!*](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreifiy7vve3vnzcdv2ptjmuvd3twrsyuu2s5tkyvonqzk56mvinoxae)
