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Mukesh Kumar

@mukeshk.bsky.social
65 followers 58 following 25 posts

Wildfire Researcher, University of California, Merced

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Reposted by Mukesh Kumar
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Just did some number crunching using latest (Oct 1) ECMWF seasonal data, and I must say that I've never seen such high predictive confidence in a very wet California winter. This is a truly extraordinary forecast amid a record-strength El Niño event. [Thread: please read to end.]
Model-relative sea surface temperature anomalies for November 2026–January 2027. The supplied grid is displayed without added smoothing or coastal filling. Beige marks land and gray marks missing ocean values. The main colour scale spans -2 to +10°F, with white at zero. Hot pink marks anomalies above +10°F. This map does not establish an operational ENSO category.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
The article connects our findings with the growing challenge of development in fire-prone areas. 📄 Our paper: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
nature.com
Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California - npj Natural Hazards
npj Natural Hazards - Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Our research paper with @climate-guy.bsky.social on the compounding effects of climate change and wildland–urban interface expansion on wildfire risk in California was recently featured in @grist.org's story on wildfire and suburban growth in the American West. Grist: grist.org/cities/west-...
nature.com
Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California - npj Natural Hazards
npj Natural Hazards - Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
So the bigger question that we explored in this study is that: 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝘄𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗟𝗘𝗦 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗵𝘆𝘀𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿?
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Better turbulence representation is not just a modeling detail—it can shape how well we simulate wind, heat, smoke, and wildfire behavior at the scales where these processes actually matter.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Why does this matter beyond the model itself? Turbulence is the bridge between atmospheric forcing and the fine-scale processes we ultimately want to simulate—from wind and heat transport to smoke dispersion and 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗼𝗿.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
The amplitude and vertical extent matter. In our model simulations, applying perturbations through roughly half of the convective boundary layer provided a good balance between rapid turbulence development and minimizing additional motions near the inversion.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
But there is an important lesson: 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗱𝗼 𝘄𝗲 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵-𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗟𝗘𝗦 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹—𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗺𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗵𝘆𝘀𝗶𝗰𝘀? The perturbations substantially shortened the distance—or fetch—needed for turbulence to develop, while altering the individual terms of the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
In our study, published at @agu.org JAMES, we tested a simple idea: 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗵𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗺𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗺 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 at the inflow boundary of a boundary-coupled LES domain. 𝗠𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗺 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 → 𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗳𝗹𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 → 𝘀𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗿 + 𝗯𝘂𝗼𝘆𝗮𝗻𝗰𝘆 → 𝗧𝗞𝗘 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Impact of Momentum Perturbation on Convective Boundary Layer Turbulence
The fetch is reduced after applying momentum perturbation and the reduction is directly proportional to the amplitude of the perturbations Applying momentum perturbation up to half the boundary l...
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Thank you, @theconversation.com for including our research in this article on the #Spokane #wildfires. Many thanks to @climate-guy.bsky.social and @mojisadegh.bsky.social for helping communicate the science behind wildfire risk & resilience to a broader audience. theconversation.com/why-the-spok...
theconversation.com
Why the Spokane wildfires became so catastrophic
Extreme fire conditions converged in suburban neighborhoods built into the forests, shrubland and grasslands and quickly spread.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Paper link: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Residential Structure Survivability to Large Wildfires in the United States
Around half a million homes were exposed to large fires in the US, with 68% of exposures and a sixfold increase during 2001–2020 in the West Survivability declined by 12% in the western US in the...
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
For homeowners and communities, the message is not that wildfire risk is unavoidable. It is that there are opportunities to improve survivability through 𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬, 𝐯𝐞𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐡𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐞-𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
The findings point to an interaction between 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐰𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐡𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬, 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐭, 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐯𝐞𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐞-𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
What makes this work important to me is the shift in perspective. 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐬𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲𝐞𝐝, 𝐰𝐞 𝐚𝐬𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐰𝐡𝐲 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐡𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦—and 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡 𝐮𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
We looked at nearly half a million homes exposed to large wildfires across the U.S. from 2001–2020 and found that survivability has declined substantially in the West, particularly in California.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
I’m happy to share a piece of my recent interview with the @latimes.com AngelesTimes about our research on 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐬. #Wildfires #HomeSurvivability #WildfireResilience #WUI #FireWeather www.latimes.com/environment/...
latimes.com
The percentage of homes surviving California wildfires is dropping, despite efforts to harden them
At the turn of the century, wildfires destroyed only about 3% of the California homes they came into contact with. By 2020, the rate had risen to 18%, a new study found.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Please consider submitting your abstract to our AGU 2026 session H028 on advancing understanding and prediction of #droughts from observations, models and ML. @agu.org 2026 session H028: agu.confex.com/agu/agu26/pr... #AGU26 #CompoundExtremes #Ecohydrology #Hydroclimate #MachineLearning
agu.confex.com
Advancing Understanding and Prediction of Droughts from Observations, Physical Process-based Models, and Machine Learning
Drought extremes have cascading impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, water resources, and human health. Forecasting droughts remains challenging without resolving tightly coupled soil–plant–atmospher...
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Please consider submitting your abstract to our AGU session NH022, focused on understanding the risks, drivers, and impacts of #weather and #climate #extremes. AGU 2026 session NH022 link: agu.confex.com/agu/agu26/pr... #AGU26 #DataScience #ClimateScience #Wildfires #Extremes
agu.confex.com
Data Science for Weather and Climate Extremes: Risks, Drivers, and Impacts
As weather and climate extremes intensify in frequency and magnitude, there is a pressing need to draw on observational records, empirical methods, and cross-disciplinary research to better characteri...
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Residential Structure Survivability to Large Wildfires in the United States
Around half a million homes were exposed to large fires in the US, with 68% of exposures and a sixfold increase during 2001–2020 in the West Survivability declined by 12% in the western US in the...
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Our findings suggest that #modern #building standards, #vegetation management around #homes, and advanced proactive #planning for the most #extreme fire #weather days may improve home #survivability and enhance community resilience to #wildfires.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
(3) Survivability was lower in the West than in the East, particularly for older homes, homes near #forests, and during #extreme fire weather conditions.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
(1) Nearly half a million #homes were exposed to large #wildfires across the U.S. during 2001–2020, with 68% of exposures occurring in the #West and a six-fold increase over the study period. (2) Home #survivability declined by 12% across the western U.S. and by 16% in #California during 2001–2020.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Happy to share our new paper in @agu.org Earth's Future with @pyrogeog.bsky.social @climate-guy.bsky.social @mojisadegh.bsky.social. We investigated three key drivers of home survivability—building age, surrounding fuels, and fire weather conditions. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Residential Structure Survivability to Large Wildfires in the United States
Around half a million homes were exposed to large fires in the US, with 68% of exposures and a sixfold increase during 2001–2020 in the West Survivability declined by 12% in the western US in the...
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Reposted by Mukesh Kumar
Emily L Williams @emilywilliams.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
New paper! It's pretty much common sense that hotter summers = more wildfire activity. But what about individual heatwaves? Our team dug into this question, and found that 42% of burned area over the past couple decades happened during or right after a heatwave. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Heatwaves enable wildfire activity in the western United States
Heatwaves are associated with a disproportionate share of wildfire activity and trends in the western US in recent decades.
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Reposted by Mukesh Kumar
Matt Jones @mattwjones.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
🔥 Our new research in @science.org shows that people are increasingly exposed to fires globally, driven by overlapping shifts in where #fires occur and where people live. But changes in exposure vary hugely by region and are shaped by different population dynamics.👇 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Increasing global human exposure to wildland fires despite declining burned area
Although half of Earth’s population resides in the wildland-urban interface, human exposure to wildland fires remains unquantified. We show that the population directly exposed to wildland fires incre...
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Reposted by Mukesh Kumar
Nature Portfolio @natureportfolio.nature.com · 04/03/2025
The frequency of some types of fires in cities as a result of climate change is projected to increase in the coming decades according to a study published in Nature Cities. go.nature.com/3D3fMa8
This is Extended Data Figure 1, which shows a conceptual model.
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
The recent #Eaton and #Palisades fires in Los Angeles exemplify this risk, as shown in our study: ● Ignited near the WUI edge ● Burned during winter, a season with surprisingly frequent critical fire weather days in coastal Southern California
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Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Thrilled to share our new paper in @natureportfolio.nature.com npj Natural Hazards: 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐖𝐔𝐈 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐝𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞-𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐚. www.nature.com/articles/s44... @mojisadegh.bsky.social @climate-guy.bsky.social
nature.com
Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California - npj Natural Hazards
npj Natural Hazards - Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California
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