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John Abatzoglou

@climate-guy.bsky.social
1.4K followers 213 following 3 posts

Tracking weather and climate and why they matter climatologylab.org

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Reposted by John Abatzoglou
Mukesh Kumar @mukeshk.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Happy to share our new paper in @agu.org Earth's Future with @pyrogeog.bsky.social @climate-guy.bsky.social @mojisadegh.bsky.social. We investigated three key drivers of home survivability—building age, surrounding fuels, and fire weather conditions. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Residential Structure Survivability to Large Wildfires in the United States
Around half a million homes were exposed to large fires in the US, with 68% of exposures and a sixfold increase during 2001–2020 in the West Survivability declined by 12% in the western US in the...
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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Tropical cyclones have produced hourly rainfall extremes at about 3/4 of US stations once you include remote effects - maybe some trends in SE/NE Kalashnikov @climate-guy.bsky.social @astansfield.bsky.social GRL
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to Hourly Precipitation Extremes in the Contiguous United States
Tropical cyclones (TCs) contributed to extreme hourly rainfall at 76% of stations in the contiguous United States since 1980 Local Atlantic TCs contribute to hourly extremes in eastern CONUS, whi...
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Reposted by John Abatzoglou
Emily L Williams @emilywilliams.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
New paper! It's pretty much common sense that hotter summers = more wildfire activity. But what about individual heatwaves? Our team dug into this question, and found that 42% of burned area over the past couple decades happened during or right after a heatwave. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Heatwaves enable wildfire activity in the western United States
Heatwaves are associated with a disproportionate share of wildfire activity and trends in the western US in recent decades.
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Adrienne Marshall @hydro-adrienne.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
New paper out today in Nature Water! We examine how changes in the *width* of the streamflow hydrograph affect water allocation among junior and senior water users. Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s44... No paywall: rdcu.be/fgfl5 @natwater.nature.com
(a) trends in SDoT at gauges across the US; (b) trends in SDoT aggregated to the basin scale; (c) SDoT sensitivity to temperature; (d) SDoT sensitivity to precipitation
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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
🔥 New paper out in Science Advances We detect a clear externally forced signal in the global increase of extreme fire weather days since 1980. Using reanalyses and CMIP6 simulations, the fingerprint of change emerges above natural variability. 📄 doi.org/10.1126/scia...
Observed and modeled trends in extreme fire weather days (1980–2023).
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Cong Yin @cyinglobe.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Our new study in Science Advances: Extreme fire risk days are increasingly synchronizing globally. This trend strains firefighting cooperation and worsens regional air quality. With @climate-guy.bsky.social @mattwjones.bsky.social @mojisadegh.bsky.social and Alison Cullen doi.org/10.1126/scia...
doi.org
Increasing synchronicity of global extreme fire weather
Increasing synchronicity of global extreme fire weather constrains fire suppression coordination and exacerbates air pollution.
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Mike Flannigan @mikeflannigan.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
🔥 New fire paper out - Fire regime changes in Canada: an update. Overall, the big-picture trends remain consistent: annual area burned, the annual number and size of large fires are still increasing, but the total number of fires for all sizes continue to decline. cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/...
cdnsciencepub.com
Fire regime changes in Canada: an update
Given the recent rise in extreme fires, we present an update to a previous Canadian wildfire trend analysis (1959-2015) with nine additional years of data (2016-2024), an improved area burned dataset,...
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Reposted by John Abatzoglou
Calum Cunningham @calxcunningham.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Out today in @science.org, we show wildfire disasters have surged in the last decade, as climate change intensifies fire weather and exacerbates other vulnerabilities. 📄 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... With @pyrogeog.bsky.social @climate-guy.bsky.social
science.org
Climate-linked escalation of societally disastrous wildfires
Climate change and land mismanagement are creating increasingly fire-prone built and natural environments. However, despite worsening fire seasons, evidence is lacking globally for trends in socially ...
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Matt Jones @mattwjones.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
🔥 Our new research in @science.org shows that people are increasingly exposed to fires globally, driven by overlapping shifts in where #fires occur and where people live. But changes in exposure vary hugely by region and are shaped by different population dynamics.👇 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Increasing global human exposure to wildland fires despite declining burned area
Although half of Earth’s population resides in the wildland-urban interface, human exposure to wildland fires remains unquantified. We show that the population directly exposed to wildland fires incre...
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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
1/4 Please see our new paper just published in Global Change Biology: “Intensifying fire season aridity portends ongoing expansion of severe wildfire in western US forests”. 🧪🌍🔥
doi.org
Intensifying Fire Season Aridity Portends Ongoing Expansion of Severe Wildfire in Western US Forests
Area burned by wildfire has increased in western US forests over recent decades. However, high-severity fire—fire that kills all or most trees—is also an important metric of fire activity given its d...
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Marco Turco @marco-turco.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Happy to share our new paper: we show that human-caused climate change is raising the odds of extreme climate-driven fire years across forested regions of the globe @climate-guy.bsky.social @pyrogeog.bsky.social rdcu.be/evJkX #ClimateChange #Wildfires
rdcu.be
Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally
Nature Communications - The authors show that extreme fire years in global forests align with rare fire weather extremes. Climate change has made such extremes 88-152% more probable. These findings...
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Emily L Williams @emilywilliams.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
New study w/ @climate-guy.bsky.social ! Increased evaporative demand due to climate change has increased crop irrigation demand; in the Central Valley, this additional irrigation demand is equivalent to ~11% of the region's observed groundwater loss. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Climate Change Increases Evaporative and Crop Irrigation Demand in North America
The strongest climate change-driven trends in ETo are found in the water-limited southwestern and central regions of North America Forced increases in ETo have primarily been driven by increased ...
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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment @natrevearthenviron.nature.com · 11/04/2025
Kolden et al. document 2024 wildfires, finding: - 367 Mha burned - Burned area decreased 5.4% from 2023 - Fires released an estimate 1965 Tg C www.nature.com/articles/s43... (rdcu.be/ehnTP) @pyrogeog.bsky.social @climate-guy.bsky.social @mattwjones.bsky.social @ueaenv.bsky.social [6/n]
nature.com
Wildfires in 2024 - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Wildfire burned area was 367 Mha in 2024, ranked 17th since 2001. An estimated 1,965 Tg C was released from these fires, 41% of which came from the Americas, far exceeding their usual 25% contribution...
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Dr. Crystal A. Kolden @pyrogeog.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
On 4/17 @ucmerced.bsky.social Fire Resilience Center will host John Mills, CEO and co-founder of @watchduty.org AND have discussion with @climate-guy.bsky.social and Dr. Sandie Ha on: 1) The upcoming fire season in CA 2) How you can prepare, esp. for smoke We're streaming it online - join us!
Flyer header that shows a photo of John Mills and states the date and time as April 17, 2025 from 1-3 pm for the 2025 Wildfire outlook.QR code to register for the zoom seminar and get full schedule.
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Tom Swetnam @firescar.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Perceptive article by Sarah Kaplan today about Sean Parks @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social et al. paper in Nature Comms last month, which made use of the North American Fire Scar network. Quoting John Abatzoglou @climate-guy.bsky.social, Susan Pritchard @susanprichard.bsky.social, me, and others.
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Cong Yin @cyinglobe.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
An integrated, interactive, and extensible platform for detecting and visualizing compound events. Our new paper in Scientific Data is now available: doi.org/10.1038/s415.... Thanks to my coauthors Mingfang Ting, @kornhuber.bsky.social, Radley M. Horton, Yaping Yang, and Yelin Jiang!
doi.org
CETD, a global compound events detection and visualisation toolbox and dataset - Scientific Data
Scientific Data - CETD, a global compound events detection and visualisation toolbox and dataset
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Reposted by John Abatzoglou
Benjamin Cook @dustybowl.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
New work with Dimitr Kalashnikov, Deepti Singh (@climatechirper.bsky.social) and Mingfang Ting! We demonstrate that record low soil moisture and global warming were major contributors to a record breaking heatwave in Mexico+Texas in 2023 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Contributions of Atmospheric Ridging and Low Soil Moisture to the Record‐Breaking June 2023 Mexico‐Texas Heatwave
A heatwave with record-breaking intensity, persistence, and spatial extent affected Mexico and Texas during June 2023 Circulation, record-low soil moisture, and their interaction explain most of ...
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Reposted by John Abatzoglou
GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
1/n Please see our new paper in Nature Communications! We used 1,851 tree-ring fire-scar sites and contemporary fire perimeters to quantify the prevalence of wildfire from 1600-1880 compared to 1984-2022. 🧪🌍🔥 Our key findings are as follows ...
nature.com
A fire deficit persists across diverse North American forests despite recent increases in area burned - Nature Communications
Across many North American forests, recent years with exceptional area burned are not unprecedented when considering the multi-century perspective offered by fire-scarred trees. Nevertheless, abundant...
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John Abatzoglou @climate-guy.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Santa Ana winds are sort of the opposite of an Ice Cube. And, yesterday (and the day prior) was NOT a good day. climatetoolbox.org/tool/climate...
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John Abatzoglou @climate-guy.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Tule fog fading with an extra push from the Fresno heat island
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Reposted by John Abatzoglou
Deepti Singh @climatechirper.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
⚡New paper on predicting #lightning 🌩️ in the western US using CNNs with @dmitri-climate.bsky.social @zacklabe.com @climate-guy.bsky.social and others. Key finding: CNN are quite skillful at predicting lightning here. We are using these to develop projections of lightning-ignited #wildfires🔥.
Total number of CG lightning days predicted by locally trained convolutional neural networks, areas of over and under prediction and interannual correlation between actual and predicted CG lightning days
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