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Moritz Oberndorfer

@moberndorfer.bsky.social
295 followers 447 following 37 posts

Postdoc at Helsinki Institute for Demography and Population Health Max Planck-University of Helsinki Center for Social Inequalities in Population Health. Affiliated with University of Glasgow

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Reposted by Moritz Oberndorfer
Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 06/10/2026
40 years after the Chornobyl nuclear disaster we revisited the long term consequences of radiation on thyroid cancer in unprecedented spatial detail. Read more in Levchuk, Schöley, et al. Tracing echoes from the past: bmjpublichealth.bmj.com/content/4/3/...
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Reposted by Moritz Oberndorfer
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) @mpidr.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
👏Alyson van Raalte 🎉has been appointed as Honorary Professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine | Population Studies Group, LSHTM www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_events_61…
A woman with brown hair and a black blazer is leaning against a banister, smiling, in a modern interior.
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Helsinki Institute for Demography and Population Health @pophel.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Zoom event 📹 On 5th of October, 12:15-01:00 PM (UTC+2), Julia Hellstrand will be presenting at PopHel Talks with title: Childbearing in flux - Who is still having children? 👶 Please register here: elomake.helsinki.fi/lomakkeet/14... 1/3
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Jeremy Labrecque @jeremylabrecque.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Just posting for title: www.ovid.com/jnls/epidem/...
ovid.com
Commentary : Epidemiology
Abstract was not provided for this article.
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Reposted by Moritz Oberndorfer
Jon Huang @jonhuang.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Send them this editorial! Short and sweet! jech.bmj.com/content/80/4...
jech.bmj.com
Descriptive estimands, causal estimands, and avoiding the jungle of adjusted associations ‘in between’
The first recommendation for quantitative studies in JECH ’s recently published methodological recommendations1 for prospective authors reads: > Be upfront about the research study’s intention (this ...
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Colleen Reynolds @colleenareynolds.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
There is a major problem with how applied health (equity) researchers think about covariate control. I often read research papers where the paper is trying to answer an important question....But the adjustment set doesn't make sense. #episky 1/3
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Natalie Bennett @nataliecbennett.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Looking forward to presenting our working paper: "Interpreting inequalities and causal considerations – reflections on the application of descriptive intersectional MAIHDA" at the upcoming MAIHDA conference in Sheffield next Friday. Preprint here: osf.io/preprints/so...
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
2. Who do you hold accountable then? The people who decide the funding panels, the researchers in the panels, the researchers submitting worse research than they could do, the peer-reviewers for not detecting errors, the editors for publishing, academia for pressuring quantity over quality,...?
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
1 Would be nice if we only fund research that is (at that time) not methodologically flawed. But funding decisions are based on plans for the future and big words in proposals. Even if we convince funders "project X will be super causal, very cool", we might end up doing something else once funded
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Or how about “well-conducted study, or bust”?
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Were people analysing stepped-wedge cluster randomised trials doing staggered DiD before it was cool?
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Yes, this is a classic. your super annoying rEvIeWeR 2 then follows up: Ok, fair. Conditional associations can provide useful descriptions. Could you provide an argument in the manuscript for why these conditional associations are worth estimating?
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
The usual follow-up: Ok. If this is a descriptive study, why do you adjust for all these covariates?
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Fair point. In our last discussions among teachers @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social @sammalmaetaes.bsky.social we said that we could mention bias analysis in the context of randomised experiments and exchangeability assumption. It sounds like where you‘d put it too.
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Ok thanks! We are planning an intro to causal inference course next semester and were wondering if basic bias analysis can fit into the course. Haven’t figured that out yet.
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
What level of causal inference/bias analysis knowledge do you expect from the students for this assignment?
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Reposted by Moritz Oberndorfer
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) @mpidr.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
MPIDR@EPC2026 Have a chat with Marcus Ebeling 📅 Friday, June 5 🕑 14:00-15:00 📍MPIDR booth Marcus Ebeling will be promoting his new Research Group Medical Demography. If you want to learn about his research and the future possibilities to join the group, visit us at our booth. #EPC2026
Announcement of a discussion with Marcus Ebeling, Head of the Medical Demography Research Group, at the MPIDR booth on June 5 from 2:00 to 3:00 p.m.
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
I‘m sure going to the museum for 1h a day has a causal effect if you do it instead of smoking 1h a day, drinking red wine 1h, or being outside just to get a sunburn 1h a day (sorry, not an option for UK folk)
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Okay I get what you mean I think. I guess I'm confused by the distinction: 1) Questions that target specific associations and 2) questions that target a real-world difference or a causal effect that happen to be estimated as an association? Anyway, I'm ready for causal entertainment next Monday!
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
what do you mean by associational questions? Any questions to which our attempted answer will be some measure of association? Looking forward to the talk!
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Reposted by Moritz Oberndorfer
Helsinki Institute for Demography and Population Health @pophel.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
👩‍🎓 Maria Ponkilainen successfully defended her PhD thesis "Childbearing and Divorce among Same-Sex and Different-Sex Couples in the Nordic Context : A Register-Based Analysis" at the University of Helsinki in March 2026. Her thesis can be read here: hdl.handle.net/10138/627822 🥳🌈
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Andrew Bell @andrewjdbell.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Intersectionality and MAIHDA conference - BOOKING NOW OPEN! (and it's free) Friday 10th July, University of Sheffield With a pre-conference MAIHDA course on Thursday 9th July All details: intersectionalhealth.org/upcoming-eve... Please share widely in your networks!
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Georgia Tomova @georgiatomova.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Do you ever claim to be interested in the "association" between variables? This talk may be for you! @jeremylabrecque.bsky.social will explain when and why such associational language is not appropriate and why causal language should be used instead. Register here: ucl.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Causal Inference Interest Group Seminar with Jeremy Labrecque - 11th May 2026 3pm BST
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Developing a causal inference course is easier than I thought.
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Reposted by Moritz Oberndorfer
Juha Luukkonen @sammalmaetaes.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Los Pollos Hermanos! 🐓 Our new cohort study published in JECH: Parental death is linked to increased psychotropic medication use in adults (ages 35–55), especially among those with fewer siblings, highlighting the role of family as a support network. jech.bmj.com/content/earl...
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
It's short and not technical. A quick and hopefully interesting read. After many discussions with co-authors and colleagues, mostly at @pophel.bsky.social, it still seems like a hard to navigate space. Is there something valuable between descriptive and causal? I'd love to hear people's thoughts!
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
On the space between descriptive and causal estimands with Annie Herbert, Anna Pearce and @vkatikireddi.bsky.social Descriptive estimands, causal estimands, and avoiding the jungle of adjusted associations in between doi.org/10.1136/jech... Don't get lost in the jungle of adjusted associations.
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Demographic Research @demresjournal.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
New decomposition method to quantify how specific subpopulations drive demographic gaps. E.g., estimating how foreign-born populations by race and ethnicity contribute to the gap between total and native-born life expectancy. @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social 👉 www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
🚨New paper out in Demographic Research🚨 and my first foray into demographic methods. It develops a new method to quantify how specific subpopulations drive demographic gaps. www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol... @demresjournal.bsky.social @pophel.bsky.social #demography #methods
demographic-research.org
Demographic Research - The groupwise decomposition: Estimating group-specific contributions to differences between demographic measures (Volume 54 - Article 14 | Pages 441–470)
Volume 54 - Article 14 | Pages 441–470
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Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 03/03/2026
"Temporary shock or lasting scar?" By 2024 nearly all high-income countries remained below their pre-pandemic life expectancy trends. We identify four distinct mortality shock patterns since 2020. Full analysis in our preprint: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
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Society for Social Medicine & Population Health @socsocmed.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
1 week left to submit your abstract for SSMPH EuroEpi 2026!! ➡️ hg3.co.uk/ssm/ Submission deadline: 23:59 (GMT), Monday 2nd March 📆 9-11 Sep 2026 Venue: Mile End Campus, QMUL, London
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Is there a good reason to still put so much emphasis on hypothesis testing in quant methods courses for social science (esp. undergrad) students? What would we lose if we mentioned it but instead emphasised the estimand framework?
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Reposted by Moritz Oberndorfer
Natalie Bennett @nataliecbennett.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Excited to be delivering a session on better incorporating geography in intersectional inequalities research at the ISGlobal Spring School in March. It is free to attend and today is the final day to sign up. Further information here: www.isglobal.org/en/-/interna...
isglobal.org
International Spring School in Global Health 2026 - ISGLOBAL
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
I read an excellent discussion of this in "Causal Inference and the People's Health" doi.org/10.1093/oso/... People may recognise this distinction from "forward" and "backward" causal thinking more used in other social sciences. Maybe simpler jargon than "effects of causes" and "causes of effects"
doi.org
Causal Inference and the People's Health
Abstract. This book examines the implications of the “Causal Revolution” in epidemiology for the people’s health. Since the turn of the 21st century, this
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Reposted by Moritz Oberndorfer
Policy Modelling For Health @healthmod.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
📢 How can systematic reviews better address health equity—even when equity isn’t the main focus? A paper by Dr Mhairi Campbell, with @vkatikireddi.bsky.social (Causal Estimations package) sets out practical ways to build equity into evidence reviews that shape health decisions. Read: bit.ly/3ZfkCIE
Header for Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health -text on blue /pink background
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Difficult. Helpful for me was that epi methods traditionally need to care about "effects of causes" - what's the effect of intervention X? That is also useful for social epi but often social epi is confronted with "causes of effects" questions - Does A have a higher incidence than B because of X?
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Equalise: ESRC Centre for Lifecourse Health Equity @equalise.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Passionate about health equity? 📣 Join the #Equalise team and help make a difference with a fully funded PhD opportunity at the University of Glasgow @glasgow.ac.uk. ✍ Further information & how to apply: shorturl.at/yn3Sh #PhD #PhDFunding @celsenbroich.bsky.social @pmeierprof.bsky.social
shorturl.at
FULLY FUNDED PhD - Actionable Evidence for More Health Equity Among the UK’s Future Workforces – A Synthetic Population and Simulation Approach at University of Glasgow on FindAPhD.com
PhD Project - FULLY FUNDED PhD - Actionable Evidence for More Health Equity Among the UK’s Future Workforces – A Synthetic Population and Simulation Approach at University of Glasgow, listed on FindAP...
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Natalie Bennett @nataliecbennett.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
📢 New paper! We examine intersectional inequalities in neighbourhood air pollution concentration by area deprivation, ethnicity, education, rurality and age. We find evidence of patterns of inequality which depart from an additive framework link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Intersectional Inequalities in Neighbourhood Air Pollution Concentration in England: A Quantitative Analysis of Ecological Data Using Eco-Intersectional Multilevel (EIM) Modelling - Applied Spatial An...
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy - Air pollution is detrimentally associated with many health outcomes, yet its impacts are not equally distributed. Research consistently finds inequalities by...
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Joan Damiens @joandamiens.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
🏠 Homeownership is often framed as protective for #wellbeing. But less is known about what happens when #homeownership becomes a burden… Our new paper out in Social Science & Medicine shows that #mortgage affordability matters for #MentalHealth. doi.org/10.1016/j.so...
doi.org
Redirecting
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Georgia Tomova @georgiatomova.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
If you are interested in the past, present, and future of Mendelian Randomisation, join us later this month for a Causal Inference Interest Group seminar on MR with none other than @mendelrandom.bsky.social Zoom registration link: ucl.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
CIIG seminar with George Davey Smith on 26 January 2026 3pm GMT
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) @mpidr.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Happy New Year! 2026 already offers lots of opportunities to join or visit the MPIDR – last call! These four MPIDR calls end in January. Jobs: www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61... www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61... Visit: incubator.demogr.mpg.de Conference: www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_even...
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Again an open position at the MaxHel Center. This time at the Max (Rostock) part of MaxHel. deadline is the 11th of January! www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61...
demogr.mpg.de
MPIDR - Postdoc Position(s) at the Max Planck – University of Helsinki Centre for Social Inequalities in Population Health
The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. At the MPIDR, researchers from all over the world investigate demographic change, aging, fertility, biological demography and other issues at the forefront of population research.
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Hampton Gaddy @hggaddy.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
And for all the 1918 flu cohort studies that compare 1919 to all surrounding cohorts, including 1920, the water is doubly muddied: fertility patterns make it look like any compositional changes persisted into 1920, causing bias in the opposite direction too (2/2) doi.org/10.1080/0032...
doi.org
Did the 1918 influenza pandemic cause a 1920 baby boom? Demographic evidence from neutral Europe
In 1919–20, the European countries that were neutral in the First World War saw a small baby bust followed by a small baby boom. The sparse literature on this topic attributes the 1919 bust to indi...
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
And of course thanks to the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme under @horizoneu.bsky.social for funding this work cordis.europa.eu/project/id/1...
cordis.europa.eu
The Lockdown Cohort-Effect: Does the unequal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility lead to long-term consequences for health and public services provision? | LoCo-Effect | Project | Fact Sheet ...
The COVID-19 pandemic placed a heavy social and health burden on populations. Yet, because of social inequalities in the pandemic’s impact on fertility behaviour, babies conceived during the pandemic ...
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
This was a big data collaboration effort with 14 supportive colleagues. A big thanks to all of them for their contributions! Some of the have an account here: @sammalmaetaes.bsky.social @thomaswhitecrane.bsky.social @jaspervbeen.bsky.social @pfallesen.bsky.social
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Our study covers births from Austria, Brazil, Colombia, Denmark, Ecuador, England, Finland, Mexico, the Netherlands, Scotland, South Australia, Spain, Sweden, the United States, Wales. If you are interested in a specific country, have a look at our country profiles in the supplement. material.
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
New paper finally published! Using data on 78 million births from 15 countries, we found that babies conceived during the COVID-19 pandemic have a different parental socioeconomic composition than expected had the pandemic not occurred. doi.org/10.1038/s414... @natcomms.nature.com @helsinki.fi
Screenshot of the title and abstract:
Parental socioeconomic composition of birth cohorts changed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic offers opportunities to study effects of in-utero and early life exposure to environmental changes. However, inferences from such studies may be flawed if the pandemic has changed the socioeconomic composition of parents. Analysing over 77.9 million live births from 15 countries, we estimate changes in the socioeconomic composition of the cohort born between December 2020 and December 2021 using interrupted time series analysis. We find that, compared with their counterfactual compositions, the December 2020-December 2021 birth cohort has a higher proportion of babies born to socioeconomically advantaged parents in Austria, England, Finland, the Netherlands, Scotland, Spain, Wales, and the United States while we observe the opposite change for Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico. These changes in cohort composition may cause between-cohort differences in life course outcomes that are influenced by parental socioeconomic circumstances even if early life exposure to the pandemic had no direct effect on this birth cohort.Figure 4 in the article. Figure caption:
The black dots are percentage-point differences derived from the estimated mean counterfactual number of live births using interrupted time series Poisson regressions on the number of live births. 95% confidence intervals presented as horizontal lines around the point estimates are estimated using a three-step approach (see method section). Estimates are based on 596,276 live births for Austria; 19,995,228 for Brazil; 4,329,577 for Colombia; 413,903 for Denmark; 1,965,574 for Ecuador; 4,391,999 for England; 330,063 for Finland; 12,876,945 for Mexico; 1,167,024 for the Netherlands; 343,379 for Scotland; 134,874 for South Australia; 2,229,935 for Spain; 758,034 for Sweden; 22,306,054 for the United States; 216,797 for Wales. For Spain, only births with maternal age over 25 are included (see methods and suppl. material). Quintiles of equivalised household income and area deprivation are abbreviated by the letter Q. Q5 (highest income, lowest deprivation) denotes the fifth quintile, Q4 the fourth quintile, and so forth. For countries, where only parental educational attainment was available, “Post-Second./ Tert.” denotes post-secondary or tertiary educational attainment, “Upper Second.” denotes upper secondary educational attainment, “Lower Second.” denotes lower secondary educational attainment, and “Prim.” denotes primary educational attainment.
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GENUS @genus.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
New study on divorce by @elinaeinio.bsky.social & Ponkilainen shows that women divorcing men face larger losses in homeownership & in retaining the marital home than both their former husbands and women divorcing women. @pophel.bsky.social 🔗 link.springer.com/article/10.1... PS. Happy New Year! 🥂
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
„... there are no iron laws of economics keeping us from building a more humane world, …“ Banerjee & Duflo 2019, p. 255
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Moritz Oberndorfer @moberndorfer.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
My highlights from the recommendations: 1) Be up front about the research study’s intention - is it to describe, predict or estimate causal effects. 2) Roles of all variables are specified and justified in the text... Following the recommendations will enable a better peer-review experience
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