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Migration Observatory

@migobs.bsky.social
3.4K followers 47 following 424 posts

The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford provides independent, authoritative, evidence-based analysis on UK migration.

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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This month, small boat arrivals reached their lowest level since December 2021. There were 27,900 arrivals in the last year. In our new commentary, we explore why arrivals have fallen, including how much of the decline may be due to policy. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
Q&A: Why have small boat arrivals declined in 2026? - Migration Observatory
Small boat arrivals declined significantly in the first seven months of 2026. This commentary analyses the numbers and explains what we can – and cannot – know about the reasons for the decline.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The event of the year is back on Thursday 10th December! The Migration Statistics User Forum is your opportunity to find out what ONS, Home Office and other government data teams are planning on migration, and to tell them what stats you need. www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/migration-...
eventbrite.co.uk
Migration Statistics User Forum
A forum for users and producers of international migration statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Home Office.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
In July, 43% of the public said immigration was an important issue affecting the UK, more than any other topic. Take a look at our updated public attitudes briefing to see how views vary towards different migrant groups and who is more likely to hold positive/negative attitudes toward immigration.
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Madeleine Sumption @msumption.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
My op-ed in the FT today about why it can be misleading when the migration debate focuses too much on work visas A big theme in my recent book, "What is Immigration Policy For?" which looks at why immigration policy is so difficult for governments to manage www.amazon.co.uk/What-Immigra...
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Madeleine Sumption @msumption.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Book available here in case you don't have a copy yet! bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/trade/what-i...
bristoluniversitypress.co.uk
What Is Immigration Policy For?
What Is Immigration Policy For?; This book explores what immigration policy seeks to achieve and why so many people end up unhappy with the outcome. Drawing on decades of research and examples from hi...
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
NEW PODCAST: How does immigration affect the public finances? 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social, @msumption.bsky.social, and @maxwarner.bsky.social sit down to discuss the impact of migration on the economy and the public finances ⬇️
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Madeleine Sumption @msumption.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
How does immigration affect public finances? Is the OBR getting it right? Which migration policies are fiscally costly vs beneficial? Much enjoyed discussing all this - and my new book, "What is immigration policy for?" with @theifs.bsky.social on their excellent IFS Zooms In podcast
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Our Director Madeleine Sumption joins Helen Miller and Max Warner, from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, to discuss how immigration affects the public finances, and what falling migration means for the UK economy. Check it out👉https://ifs.org.uk/articles/how-does-immigration-affect-public-finances
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Small boat arrivals reached the lowest level since December 2021 today. There were 27,900 arrivals in the last 365 days. So far in 2026, arrivals are down by 47% compared to the same period of 2025. We explore why in our commentary: migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
Q&A: Why have small boat arrivals declined in 2026? - Migration Observatory
Small boat arrivals declined significantly in the first seven months of 2026. This commentary analyses the numbers and explains what we can – and cannot – know about the reasons for the decline.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
UPDATED BRIEFING: Public opinion has become less supportive of immigration recently, but the picture is nuanced, and the UK is still more positive than many European neighbours UK Public Opinion toward Immigration: Overall Attitudes and Level of Concern migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
UK Public Opinion toward Immigration: Overall Attitudes and Level of Concern - Migration Observatory
This briefing provides an overview of attitudes toward immigration in Britain.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Reports that small shops and takeaways have hired migrants on Skilled Worker visas have appeared in several media outlets recently. Our new Q&A explains why these employers were able to sponsor migrants, how many actually did, whether the government could ban them from using the visa system + more.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
📊New migration stats: asylum applications are down, while UK citizenship applications hit a record high. 315,000+ applied in the year to June 2026 (+17%). Non-EU nationals drove the numbers, but growth was sharper among EU nationals. Check our analysis: migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/citize...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
Citizenship applications hit new record while asylum applications fall - Migration Observatory
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
We've updated our briefing on migrants and crime in the UK It looks at whether foreign nationals are more or less likely to be convicted than British citizens, and how many foreign national offenders are removed after serving their sentences Here are the key points.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
We've updated our briefing on migrants and crime in the UK It looks at whether foreign nationals are more or less likely to be convicted than British citizens, and how many foreign national offenders are removed after serving their sentences Here are the key points.
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Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
How much do migrants receive in Universal Credit payments? In the year ending March 2026, the DWP made £80 billion in UC payments – 8.3% (or £6.7bn) was paid to households with at least one EEA-national claimant and 7.7% (or £6.2bn) to households with at least one non-EEA-national claimant.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Can immigration policy deliver everything people want from it? Our Director Madeleine Sumption discusses the ideas behind her new book, What Is Immigration Policy For?, including why immigration policy involves difficult trade-offs. Check it out 👉 www.civilserviceworld.com/in-depth/art...
civilserviceworld.com
'Immigration policies often just don’t work very well': Interview with migration expert Madeleine Sumption
Why does migration policy cause so much division? And what might help to resolve it?
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COMPAS @compasoxford.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
@msumption.bsky.social, Director of @migobs.bsky.social at COMPAS, provides a policy perspective on BBC R4's series on UK immigration. Listen for more on legal migration, changes to indefinite leave to remain, & public opinion on migration 🔊 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand...
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
The Migration Advisory Committee has published its recommendation on which middle-skill jobs should be eligible for temporary work visas via the Temporary Shortage List. The headline? Welders and other more technical jobs are in. Jobs that are more generic (e.g., Business sales executives) are out.
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Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Between Jan 2021 and March 2026, 52k international students switched into the care sector (44% of people who switched from study to work visas). Will these study-to-care switchers stay in the sector? That will depend on whether the qualifying period for ILR is increased from 5 to 15 years... (1/2)
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Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Since 2021, 160,000 Hong Kongers have migrated to the UK via the humanitarian BNO visa route. Our new briefing looks at BNOs’ characteristics, their economic outcomes, and how many expect to stay in the UK long term. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
In 2025, just over 100,000 people claimed asylum in the UK. Our updated briefing explains who claims asylum, how these people come to the UK, whether their claims are successful, and much more. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
How does migration affect the UK’s public finances? Overall, the impacts are small, but people on different immigration routes have significantly different impacts. Here’s why, in 3 posts…
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
How does migration affect the UK’s public finances? Overall, the impacts are small, but people on different immigration routes have significantly different impacts. Here’s why, in 3 posts…
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Why do asylum seekers come to the UK? Our latest Q&A looks at what influences their destination choices, including grant rates, family reunion policies, and the UK's departure from Dublin after Brexit. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
A new Lords Committee report on the proposed changes to earned settlement, as well as the UK's approach to integration more generally, was published yesterday. Here are three things you need to know.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Yesterday marked 10 years since the UK voted to leave the EU. Reducing migration was one of the central promises of the campaign, but 7 years later, it reached a record high. @msumption.bsky.social explores whether this was accidental or by design. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
Essay: Migration ten years after the EU referendum - Migration Observatory
A short analysis arguing that the post-Brexit immigration system broke its promise to reduce migration partly by accident, and partly by design.
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Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
In 2021, foreign nationals were slightly less likely to live in social housing than British citizens. However, the share of new social housing lettings in England to non-UK nationals has increased in recent years, likely due to their rising share in the population.
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Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Since 2024, the earnings of new non-EU employees (relative to the median) have fallen back significantly, despite the fact that restrictions introduced in 2024/2025 made the work visa system more selective. Why?
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Madeleine Sumption @msumption.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
A mention for my new book in the Economist - and the (I think?) rarely mentioned point that the same set of policies would deliver higher migration in the UK than in less attractive destinations All else equal we should expect UK work/study policies to be a bit more restrictive
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Take a look at ours and @jdportes.bsky.social's updated analysis of migrant earnings. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Our fully updated briefing on asylum accommodation in the UK is out! We look at the rise and fall of hotel use, where asylum seekers live, and the share of people who do not receive government support 👇https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/asylum-accommodation-in-the-uk/
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
Asylum accommodation in the UK - Migration Observatory
This briefing examines the accommodation of asylum seekers in the UK.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
UK net migration fell sharply in 2025 to 171,000, down 82% from the historical high in early 2023. Want to know what drove the fall and what might happen to net migration in the years ahead? We've got you covered in our updated briefing. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
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Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Yesterday’s migration figures showed a sharp fall in net migration and a decline in asylum claims. But what explains the changes, and will these trends continue? New from me for @uk.theconversation.com theconversation.com/net-migratio...
theconversation.com
Net migration and asylum claims have fallen – here’s what the latest figures tell us
While net migration is on a downward trajectory, it is still positive, meaning that the foreign-born population continues to grow.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
New net migration figures covering 2025 will be published on Thursday. Here's what our team will be watching out for – from the trajectory of net migration to the use of asylum hotels and a surge in citizenship applications. www.ox.ac.uk/news/2026-05...
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
New net migration figures covering 2025 will be published on Thursday. Here's what our team will be watching out for – from the trajectory of net migration to the use of asylum hotels and a surge in citizenship applications. www.ox.ac.uk/news/2026-05...
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Our latest briefing on migrants in the UK labour market charts the remarkable shift away from EU towards non-EU workers over the past few years. Plus data on migrants' earnings, use of universal credit, overqualification, and much more... migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
68% of the increase in the UK’s population growth between 2005 and 2024 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 144% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration. See our updated briefing for more.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
New Migration Advisory Committee analysis: which people on skilled worker visas stay long term vs leave the UK? Most likely to remain long term are lower-paid workers, health & care workers, women, young people, people granted first SW visa in-country, and ppl from lower-income countries of origin
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
From the Education Committee today: recommendation to align international education and student visa policy
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
With devolved elections coming up this week, we've produced a crib sheet on migration in Scotland and Wales. While seeing the same migration patterns as the UK overall, the two nations are distinct in the difference migration makes to population change. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
Immigration in the devolved nations: the five-minute rundown - Migration Observatory
This commentary explores international migration to Scotland and Wales, including recent overall trends, higher education student and asylum seeker numbers, and projections of future migration.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
How does your local area compare with others on migration? With local elections this week, we've just published a new edition of our local data guide. Explore how each local authority profiles on immigration, foreign students, asylum seekers and more. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/projects/loc...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
Local data on migrants in the UK - Migration Observatory
This guide has been developed to help people answer key questions about migrants in local areas around the UK: How many migrants are there in different local areas? How is this changing over time? Wha...
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
“I think the book should be compulsory reading for every civil servant at the Home Office and every MP” - Former Home Secretary Amber Rudd on Madeleine Sumption's new book "What is Immigration Policy For?" Link to the book in the reply, for those civil servants and MPs who don't have their copy yet
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
ONS significantly downgrades UK population growth forecast on the back of falling net migration - with net migration central estimate reduced from 340k per year to 230k (means population of the UK would hit 71m by 2034, rather than 72.2m, as projected in 2022)
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
The cost of visa applications increased this month, so we’ve updated our tool which calculates how much migrants pay in immigration fees from entry to citizenship. Take a look at Figure 1 👇 migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
Q&A: Immigration fees in the UK - Migration Observatory
This commentary answers some common questions about immigration charges and their implications.
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Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
How much do migrants on Skilled Worker visas get paid? New FOI data show big differences by skill level and whether the job was in healthcare or other industries. For context, median earnings for full-time employees were £39,000 over the same period.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
A BBC investigation has discovered a 'shadow industry' of advisers and law firms that is seemingly helping migrants fabricate asylum claims by pretending to be gay. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Legal advisers help migrants pose as gay to get asylum, undercover BBC investigation finds
The BBC exposes a shadow industry charging migrants thousands of pounds to help them cheat the asylum system.
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Home Office monthly stats are out today.The data show that applications for Health & Care and Skilled Worker visas continue to fall. Meanwhile, the share of dependants is rising in both routes, even after restrictions on H&C dependants. What’s driving this trend is not entirely clear. Any thoughts?💡
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
A compelling review of @msumption.bsky.social's fab new book "What is Immigration Policy For?" from the inimitable @colinyeo.bsky.social - who takes an unusually authoritarian stance: "...I’m half-minded to suggest Clockwork Orange-style forced reading" freemovement.org.uk/book-review-...
freemovement.org.uk
Book review: What is immigration policy for? By Madeleine Sumption - Free Movement
Madeleine Sumption's newly published book, 'What is immigration policy for?', is essential reading for politicians and policy-makers. It is succinct, really
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Our Director @msumption.bsky.social talks to the Migration Policy Institute about her new book on immigration policy and why it is so difficult for governments to manage @migrationpolicy.bsky.social
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Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
7,500 small boat arrivals had been removed from the UK by the end of '25 - 4% of all arrivals since '18. Small boats accounted for 41% of all asylum apps last year, and arrivals remained more likely to get protection with a 61% grant rate. More below: migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
People crossing the English Channel in small boats - Migration Observatory
This briefing examines the phenomenon of people crossing the English Channel in small boats.
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